Month: March 2004

by

Transactions

Claimed LHRP Matt White off waivers from the Colorado Rockies (more below)

Placed LHSP Billy Traber on the 60-day Disabled List (elbow)

Ok, this might make the Danys Baez roster extravaganza seem tame. A quick history lesson on White’s travels:

  • Last offseason, the Seattle Mariners drafted White in the Rule 5 Draft
  • They then traded him to the Boston Red Sox
  • He was then returned to the Indians (outrighting him in the process), and spent the rest of the year in Buffalo
  • The Colorado Rockies selected him in this year’s Rule 5 Draft

    • Ok, got all that? Good. Because he had already been outrighted (or removed from the 40-man roster), White could have refused being outrighted a second time. Because the Indians wanted him back, they took the opportunity to claim him on waivers before the Rockies could offer him back to the Indians. And with Traber (and Tallet) ticketed for the 60-day Disabled List, the Indians had a free roster spot available. So now the Indians have (I believe) two more option years on White to evaluate him, which will be more than enough. And given the lack of starting depth, I wouldn’t be surprised if they stretched him out into a starting role in Buffalo just in case a starter gets hurt.

    By the way, Hector Luna, who was selected by the St. Louis Cardinals in the Rule 5 Draft, is under the same set of circumstances; he was selected the year before (Tampa Bay) and returned. So if the Indians want him back, they’ll claim him on waivers.

    On the Injury Front

    Bob Wickman had an MRI yesterday on his surgically repaired elbow. Not a good sign. If he’s shut down, David Riske is probably first in line to reclaim the closer’s role, and Scott Stewart and Jose Jimenez have both closed before. Contrary to the starting pitcher situation, the Indians have a lot of depth here, so I’m not as worried about this as an injury to a starter. But still, a healthy Wickman makes the Indians pen a lot stronger, and would reduce the burden on a very young starting staff. A Wickman injury may open the door for an NRI like Luther Hackman or David Lee to make the team. I doubt Kazuhito Tadano or Fernando Cabrera would be called upon right off the bat, but both should get some kind of opportunity as the year goes on.

    by

    Transactions

    Signed free agents RHP Matt DeWitt and RHP Robert Ellis to minor-league contracts

    Placed RHP Michael Rogers on the Voluntarily Retired List

    Reverse Kleptomania

    Eric Wedge has denounced the stolen base as being overrated, eschewing the “small-ball” mythology that light-hitting teams like to throw out as their strategy.

    In a piece written by Paul Hoynes, Wedge alluded to ideas championed by sabermetrically-based teams:

    "I'm not a huge proponent of base stealing," said Wedge. "I'm a huge proponent of getting on base."

    This is something I feel strongly about when picking a leadoff hitter, or even evaluating hitters in general: you need to get on base to be successful. Speed (and the ability to steal a base) does not compensate for getting on base to begin with. Yes, speed is a great asset to have in conjunction with on-base skills (see Carlos Beltran and Ichiro Suzuki), but if I had to choose one or the other, I would take on-base ability in a heartbeat.

    So what does this say about who the leadoff man will be? Right now, it looks like it’s Matt Lawton. He’s not the fastest guy in baseball, but he has the best career on-base percentage on the team. Hoynes goes on to say,

    Of course, they'd feel differently if they had a young Kenny Lofton or Rickey Henderson.

    Unfortunately, the Indians don’t happen to have a 90-plus base stealer on their team. And in case, Hoynes hasn’t noticed, no one does that anymore. There are very few basestealers who can steal with a high percenatage of success, and fewer still who can get on base as well. Ricky Henderson, when he finally decides to retire, will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer because of this combination. So until the Indians find the next Henderson or Lofton under a rock, they’ll be content with someone who can get on base. If you have good hitters behind the leadoff hitter, the runs take care of themselves.

    by

    Spring Training 2004 Preview – Part II

    Now the contenders for the rotation:

    Starters (5 spots)

    CC Sabathia – Age 23 Throws: Left

    I think a lot of people don’t realize how special a pitcher Sabathia is. What he’s done over his first three years at his age is very rare. Although he posted his lowest win total of his career in 2003, it didn’t take a genius (or a Cleveland sportswriter..) to figure out that the inept offense had more to do with that than his pitching ability.

    Sabathia is one of a select few pitchers to post three above 100 ERA+ seasons before the age of 22. The knock on CC is that his strikeout rate has been falling since his first season, but his walk rates have been falling as well:

    2001 .95 K/IP .53 BB/IP ERA+ 103

    2002 .70 K/IP .41 BB/IP ERA+ 103

    2003 .71 K/IP .33 BB/IP ERA+ 118

    When Sabathia first came up, he was basically a fastball pitcher, and threw a ton of them. The fact that his K rate has stabilized, and his walk rates have steadily declined paints a picture of a pitcher that’s learning how to pitch. This also means he’s throwing less pitches per game, which is always good for a young pitcher. The next year or two are absolutely critical; if CC can stay healthy, the Indians will have a cornerstone in their rotation.

    Cliff Lee – Age 25 Throws: Left

    In a way, Lee’s injury-plagued season in 2003 may have been for the best; his innings were kept down, and he’s a major key in the rotation this season. He possesses three fantastic pitches; a fastball, a slider, and a slow curve. It’s pretty pointless to construct a projection based on 62.2 IP over two seasons, but Lee is one of the best young pitching prospects in baseball.

    Jason Davis – Age 24 Throws: Right

    He’s probably a bit overrated at this point in his career. A sinker/slider pitcher, Davis nevertheless gave up 25 home runs in 165 innings of work. He needs to pitch low in the zone to be effective, and let his sinker work. His control is still an issue, as he tried to overthrow his fastball on a couple occasions. That being said, Davis is still a very raw pitcher, and he flew through the system, going from Kinston to Cleveland in 2002. I still like his upside, but Davis might have a couple bumps in the road ahead.

    Jake Westbrook – Age 26 Throws: Right

    If Davis is overrated, Jake Westbrook is a bit underrated. He’s never going to rack up the strikeouts, but his pitches all have movement, and those are the types of pitchers who stick around for a while. Two full seasons removed from shoulder surgery, Jake should be able to go 180 IP if inserted in the rotation, and be a nice 4th or 5th starter.

    Don’t believe me? Here’s Jake’s numbers, along with the numbers another low-strikeout pitcher who had a “great” season:

    Westbrook 133.0 IP, 4.33 ERA, 58 SO, 9 HR, 6 UER

    Anderson 197.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 87 SO, 27 HR, 27 UER

    The difference bewteen the two? Brian Anderson gave up almost three times the number of unearned runs Westbrook did, and it deflated his ERA enough so that he got a two-year deal from the Royals. If Westbrook can trust his sinker (and it’s a good one), he should be able to eat a lot of innings in the back of the rotation.

    Jason Stanford – Age 27 Throws: Left

    You can’t really think of anything bad to say about a pitcher who worked in a deli in Buffalo in 2002. Stanford wasn’t drafted, even though he was left-handed and breathing, and has worked his way through the minors, leaving dozens of more highly-touted arms in his wake. What remains to be seen is if his stuff is good enough to get outs in the majors. He doesn’t really have a dominating pitch, and has to rely on control and location to succeed, but plenty of pitchers have made careers out of less stuff. I think he’d be a nice swingman for the Indians, if for no other reason to see where he could fit on the club. With Brian Tallet and Billy Traber both out for the year with bad elbows, Stanford should get at least a major look this year, whether that be in the rotation or the bullpen.

    Jeff D’Amico – Age 28 Throws: Right

    Because the Indians want one of the two spots in the rotation to go to a veteren, D’Amico is probably going to make the team. He’s still a pretty young pitcher, but arm injuries have derailed his career after lighting up the National League in 2000 with the Milwaukee Brewers. I seriously doubt we’ll see another 2.66 ERA out of Jeff, but he should provide 150-170 generic innings in the 5th spot, which is good enough.

    Jason Bere – Age 32 Throws: Right

    I put Bere in the same class as Ricky Gutierrez; he’s supposedly healthy again, but you can’t count on him for any material contribution. He’s signed to a minor-league contract, so he may bounce around Buffalo for a month or two until another team needs an arm.

    Chad Durbin – Age 26 Throws: Right

    Also coming off an arm injury, Durbin is a bit of a better gamble than Bere. He’s a lot younger, and still has pretty good stuff. The fact that he stayed on the 40-man roster all winter tells you that the Indians like him a lot. He may be a guy who the Indians stick in the bullpen to build back his arm strength a la Jake Westbrook, and may stick in the rotation towards the end of the year.

    Other Starters on the 40-man Roster:

    Billy Traber – Age 24 Throws: Left

    He’s most likely out for the year with Tommy John surgery. With TJ being such a commonplace event with pitchers, he’s worth mentioning as a candidate for the 2005 rotation. Before he went under the knife, Traber had an uneven season, pitching masterpieces along with massacres. Of course, all of his work is now seen in a different light now that his condition is known, which made his one-hitter against the Yankees in July seem that much more impressive.

    Brian Tallet – Age 26 Throws: Left

    Also out with TJ surgery, Tallet had a horrendous year in Buffalo, posting a 5.14 ERA for the Bisons. And like Traber, those numbers look a lot different when you consider those numbers were on a bad arm. A fringe prospect, Tallet will probably have a tougher time cracking the rotation when he comes back from surgery, so he may end up in the bullpen permanently as a LOOGY; with his delivery and his splits versus left-handers, he could be very valuable in that role.

    Jeremy Guthrie – Age 25 Throws: Right

    Jeremy made a very impressive professional debut in Akron, but got lit up by AAA hitters. He’s going to have to prove that he can survive in the International League before coming to the majors, but this looks like more of a speed bump for Guthrie than a pot hole. Given a successful couple months in Buffalo, Guthrie should make his major-league debut in July or August. For those who continually deride owner Larry Dolan as “cheap”, I offer this pitcher (and his signing bonus) as Defense Exhibit A.

    Francisco Cruceta – Age 23 Throws: Right

    Still a high-ceiling arm, and not much else. Francisco can throw the heat quite effectively, but he still has to gain control of a breaking pitch before he can be thought of as a possible starter down the road. He’s being moved up to Buffalo this season, and that will provide a great test for his off-speed stuff.

    Mariano Gomez – Age 22 Throws: Left

    Since he was added to the 40-man roster this winter, the Indians are going to move Gomez quickly. He’s going to be in Akron’s rotation this season. A 6’6″ left-handed power pitcher, Gomez has the ability to make some eyes pop if his physical tools continue to develop.

    NRI: Kyle Denney

    On the Horizon: Jake Dittler, Fausto Carmona, Adam Miller, Rafael Perez, Aaron Laffey