Ryan

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Prospect Review: Kyle Denney and Eric Crozier

Moving on with my look at the minors:

These two players aren’t going to make any prospect lists due to their age, but they also have good chances of helping out a major league club before their careers are over.

RHSP Kyle Denney

Age: 26 (Born 7/27/1977)

Roster Status: Off 40-man roster

Rule 5: Eligible

2004 Stats: 86.0 IP, 3.77 ERA, 78 SO, 24 BB

As far as starting pitchers, he’s the best option the Indians have in the minors to come in and contribute. Like Jason Stanford, Denney has quietly overcome higher draft picks throughout every level in the organization, and it looks like the Indians are finally fitting him into their long-range plans. He’s not going to blow anyone away with his stuff, but he has good enough command to avoid walks and even miss bats. You could do much worse for a 5th starter, as the Indians have found out recently. With the demotion of Jason Davis, all that’s standing in Denney’s way is Scott Elarton. Do I really need to say anything else?

1B Eric Crozier

Age: 25 (Born 8/17/1978)

Roster Status: Off 40-man roster

Rule 5: Eligible

2004 Stats: 221 AB, .299/.382/.615, 16 2B, 18 HR

Eric is a full two years younger than Ben Broussard, so there’s a legitimate case to be made that Eric deserves a shot at first base before the end of the year. He fought injuries in 2003, and this is his first year in Buffalo, so I think he still should be considered a prospect. Like Denney, Crozier wasn’t a top draft pick, so he too has had to fight past more celebrated prospects to get where he is. He recently was named the International League Player of the Month for June. You could argue that Crozier is the best player the Indians drafted in 2000, and Eric was drafted in the 41st round. Only Brian Tallet has made the majors, and Crozier might be the second if he beats out Ryan Church.

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The Forgotten Prospects

With the Indians slowly sinking into oblivion this year, now is probably a good time to talk about the future of this team.

I’d like to start with two players that aren’t considered prospects anymore because of their major-league experience, but their age, position, and success really makes them de facto prospects.

I’m talking about Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Phillips. Both can play shortstop, but the similarities really end there. Phillips projects as a slick-fielding shortstop who should be able to hit for a high average and steal bases. Peralta looks more like a power-hitting third baseman if he continues to fill out.

Both were rushed to the majors in 2003, and both were among the youngest position players in the majors. And both didn’t fare too well. However, their age had more to do with that than their ability. Witness what they are doing in Buffalo this year:

Phillips 291 AB, .299/.354/.416, 17 2B, 5 HR, 23 BB, 35 SO

Peralta 338 AB, .334/.385/.500, 27 2B, 9 HR, 29 BB, 77 SO

While it’s nice to see some improvements from Phillips, especially in the plate discipline, Peralta is having a breakout season. 36 extra base hits is very impressive, and even more impressive that 7 of his 9 home runs have come within the last three weeks.

So where do the two fit next year? Both look ready for another shot in the bigs, but there might not be room enough for the two of them. Shortstop will be vacant, but unless someone is dealt or non-tendered, the rest of the infield has been spoken for, as I’ve stated when the Indians signed Aaron Boone. Phillips probably has the advantage because of his defensive ability, but will the Indians ignore the power that Peralta could provide from that position? That’s a question that might not be answered until late March of 2005.

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Transactions

Reinstated OF Ryan Ludwick and C Josh Bard from the 60-day Disabled List; Optioned them to Buffalo (AAA)

Transferred RHSP Joe Dawley to the 60-day Disabled List (elbow)

Designated LHRP Scott Stewart (AAA) for Assignment

This looks more complicated than it actually is. The Indians used up the block of time allowable on Bard’s and Ludwick’s rehab assignments, which is around 3 weeks. Therefore, they had to activate them from the disabled list. This meant the Indians had to clear two spots on the 40-man roster, since the two were formerly on the 60-day Disabled List.

One move was fairly easy; Joe Dawley probably isn’t going to pitch in Cleveland the rest of the season, judging by the nature of his injury (elbow), the lack of progress reports, and the appearance of more appealing candidates (Tadano, Denney).

However, clearing the other spot wasn’t going to be easy. The Indians for the past couple of years have had 40-man rosters chock full of good young talent, and very few, shall we say, fungible, players. Rick White might be that kind of a player on a team with a better bullpen, but that team isn’t the 2004 Indians. Corey Smith is playing his way off the roster, but it’s probably too soon to make a rash judgment on a player that young. So the Indians cut bait on Scott Stewart, and recognized a sunk cost when they saw one. Stewart’s numbers were as awful in Buffalo as they were in Cleveland. A team with a free roster spot might want to take a shot at Stewart and hope he works out a year or so down the line, but he isn’t going to help anyone this year. If he does clear waivers, I’m fairly certain the Indians can outright him to Buffalo without his permission. Still, that doesn’t dull the pain of seeing Ryan Church light up the International League.

Reinforcements

Good news is on the way for the beleaguered bullpen. Bob Howry is back from injury, and to this point looks healthy and effective. Bob Wickman may return this week, or at the very least, after the All-Star Break. And Rafael Betancourt should be back after his 15 days on the DL are up. So what will the bullpen look like in two weeks? Here’s my view:

CL David Riske

RP Rafael Betancourt

RP Matt Miller

RP Bob Howry

RP Bob Wickman

RP Rick White

LM Kaz Tadano

This probably means Jeriome Robertson, who was pretending to be a LOOGY, will be optioned back to Buffalo to presumedly start, and Jose Jimenez will be shown the door. Yes, you’re left with 7 right-handed pitchers, but what’s the use of keeping a left-hander around if he can’t get left-handers out? Riske and Betancourt don’t have too many troubles with lefties, and Matt Miller is probably the one guy you don’t want facing a left-hander.

Not Selling, But What About Buying?

Mark Shapiro said over the weekend that the team wasn’t going to unload any players, regardless of what happens over the month of July. This is probably a good thing, as the last thing the local media needs is more ammunition for the Dolan is Cheap! movement. And secondly, there isn’t much to “sell;” the most attractive tradable commodity would have been Ronnie Belliard, but as we’ve found out recently, he’s not a free agent after the season.

The bigger question has become, therefore, will the Indians be buyers? Shapiro has set a couple games over .500 as the mark where he feels the Indians will be contenders, and therefore be looking to acquire players in order to win the division. Given the upcoming schedule, it’s not likely for the Indians to be above .500 in a couple weeks:

July 6-8 Texas

July 9-11 Oakland

July 15-18 @Seattle

July 19-20 @Anaheim

Texas and Oakland are playing extremely well now, and it might be too late for the Indians to get to contender status by the time they reach Seattle. And given who the Indians are looking at, standing pat doesn’t seem such a bad idea. Of course, Minnesota and Chicago continue to tease the rest of the division by playing mediocre baseball, but you’d have to think one or the other is going to go on a run shortly. Meanwhile, the Indians are still ahead of schedule as far the rebuilding plan goes, and the added fan interest garnered by near-contention is an added bonus. Now it’s up to Larry Dolan to spend the money like he promised during the off-season.

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Transactions

Purchased the Contracts of RHRP Bob Howry and OF Mark Little from Buffalo (AAA); Recalled them to Cleveland

Howry looks to be ready to go physically, so he’s going to be given a shot. Before his injury last year, Bob has been a fairly steady setup man for Chicago and Boston. I’m not expecting too much from him, but given the current state of the bullpen, “not too much” is more than adequate.

Mark Little is this week’s fourth outfielder. He’s had a productive season in Buffalo, hitting .314/.348/.566 with 16 doubles and 11 home runs. He bats right-handed, so that’s a plus. He can also play all three outfield positions. If the Indians didn’t have so much outfield depth, he might be playing center field for them right now.

Optioned LHRP Cliff Bartosh to Buffalo (AAA)

A left-handed pitcher who can’t get left-handed hitters out. Hmmm.

Designated RHRP Jack Cressend for Assignment

A smart GM with a bad bullpen might claim Cressend off waivers for a short-term fix. Which begs the question, why is he going through waivers in the first place? He’s put up very good numbers in Buffalo, but he’s more a victim of circumstance than anything; the Indians desperately needed another arm for Sunday’s game. Now they need a fourth outfielder. And Bob Howry had a clause in his contract forcing him to be in the majors by July, or he becomes a free agent. So it goes.

Transferred 3B Aaron Boone to the 60-day Disabled List (knee)

Since the Indians can place him on the disabled list retroactively to the date of the injury, this is more of a move designed to create a roster spot than anything.

Promoted LHSP Keith Ramsey to Buffalo (AAA) from Kinston (A+)

He was only in Buffalo for a spot start, but he pitched well. He’s one of the organization’s unsung arms, so he might stick around the rest of the year in the high minors so the Indians can determine how good he really is.

Promoted LHRP Chris Cooper to Akron (AA) from Kinston (A+)

Demoted P Jose Vargas to Kinston (A+) from Akron (AA)

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Exploring Some Possibilities

The Indians now sit at .500, and 4 games out of first place. To me, I don’t really know if they’re a contender or just a team that’s a year away. Matt Lawton and Ronnie Belliard have been crucial to the teams’ success, and although the Indians can bring both back next year, I doubt very much that both will repeat what they’ve done this year, especially Belliard.

So what am I getting at? With the addition of Aaron Boone for 2005, I’m wondering if this is the perfect time for the Indians to dangle Belliard or Lawton out in the trade market and see if they can hook a flounder. With Carlos Beltran and Freddy Garcia off the trade market, teams like the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers may be willing to overpay for second-tier players. Given a choice between Belliard or Lawton, I’d keep Lawton, as at least his numbers this year don’t deviate too much from his good years with the Twins.

Before considering what you could get, you first have to consider the public reaction. Remember the fan reaction when Bartolo Colon was traded? I sure did. And that was during a season where it was pretty apparent the team was going nowhere fast. This season, most people I talk to are generally optimistic about the team’s future, and some even think the Indians have an outside shot at winning the division. So trading an integral piece to the team would definitely elicit a negative response, to say the least.

On the other hand, if you hold onto Belliard and play things out, and look to trade him after the season, he may wear down in July and August like he did last season:

OPS by Month, 2003

April: .718

May: .861

June: .837 (7 games)

July: .605

August: .604

September: 1.149 (12 games)

So if you hold onto Belliard and he stays consistent the rest of the season, then you have some major decisions as to the composition of next year’s infield. If, say, Paul Konerko, the type of hitter the Indians desperately need in their lineup, shows some interest in playing first base for the Indians next year, who do you get rid of? Blake is still going to be cheap, and you just signed Aaron Boone for a 2005 contract. One of Brandon Phillips or Jhonny Peralta is going to be the shortstop next year, and you still have Ben Broussard and Travis Hafner floating around. See where I’m going with this? Belliard is eligible for arbitration, and if the Indians offer it to him, he’ll be making a a lot more than he’s making in 2004, probably more than Boone’s 2005 base salary.

With the dearth of really good second baseman out there on the free agent market, Belliard will probably fetch a good return, be it a starter, reliever, prospects, or a combination of the three. Then you’re left with an infield of Blake, Phillips/Peralta, Boone, and Konerko with Hafner as the DH, and Broussard on the bench or elsewhere. The money you save paying Belliard’s arbitration bill you use elsewhere.

Of course, things could end up happening very differently from my scenario. But it’s certainly a possibility.