Ryan

by

Transactions

Purchased the Contract of RHRP Scott Elarton and Recalled him to Cleveland

Optioned OF Alex Escobar to Buffalo (AAA)

I didn’t see this coming. The Indians don’t have an off day for a couple more weeks, and, by optioning Escobar down, they’ll be playing with essentially three outfielders. Lou Merloni can play the outfield in a pinch, but he should be at first base tomorrow against Cory Lidle [EDIT: Lidle is obviously right-handed. Merloni will probably be playing instead against Eric DuBose on Monday]. Obviously Sandy Martinez is going back to Buffalo when Victor Martinez is healthy, but Escobar can’t be recalled for 10 days. So I’m thinking that S. Martinez will be DFAd and either Mark Little, Raul Gonzalez, or Ernie Young will be added to the team as the 4th outfielder. All three are career minor-league outfielders, and have put up good numbers for the Bisons. This would now allow Alex Escobar to play every day, and gives Coco Crisp (possibly) one last extended shot to show he can play everyday.

“So”, you say, “What about Grady?” I don’t think the timing is right. Sizemore has been on a roll lately, and after a slow start has started to heat up. Nevertheless, there’s absolutely no reason to rush him to the majors. Also, with Ryan Ludwick getting close to returning, the Indians have to decide who among their outfielders have a future with the club. Ludwick will not be playing at first base, at least for this season, so he’ll be taking at-bats away from either Crisp or Escobar. So now’s the time to see if Coco Crisp can become that leadoff hitter the Indians thought they were getting from the Cardinals. Sizemore is probably going to be the Indians’ starting center fielder next year, and unless Matt Lawton is traded, one among Crisp, Escobar, or Ludwick won’t be with the organization in 2005. Escobar and Ludwick have no option years left after 2004, and Coco Crisp just has just one left, I believe.

Nevertheless, the rebuilding process is really beginning to get exciting. We’re starting to see some of the pieces fall in place, and there’s more on the horizon. And of course, the team is winning some games.

Signed 25th Round Pick CA Wyatt Toregas, 29th Round Pick OF Charles Hiser, and 35th Round Pick LHP Charles Knippschild to minor-league contracts

Nothing earth-shattering here. All three are college players, so you should see them in Niles this summer. Hiser looks like an interesting player; he hit 21 home runs for the Panthers this season and was 19-19 in steals. He also has a decent arm.

by

Transactions

Traded IF Todd West (AA) to the Arizona Diamondbacks for IF Mayobanex Santana; Assigned him to Kinston (A+)

Signed 6th Round Pick RHP Cody Bunkelman to a minor-league contract; Assigned him to Burlington (R+)

Cody is probably not going to be rushed through the system; he’s a *really* raw 19-year-old pitcher (he’s only played baseball for two years) who has a 95+ mph fastball, but not much else.

Promoted CA Javi Herrera to Akron (AA) from Lake County (A-)

Promoted CA Brian Luderer to Buffalo (AAA) from Akron (AA)

Purchased the Contract of CA Sandy Martinez and Recalled him to Cleveland

Designated RHRP Lou Pote for Assignment

I certainly don’t like the looks of this move. If Victor’s ankle was day-to-day, you’d think the Indians might just manage with just Tim Laker for a couple days. Of course, maybe they brought S. Martinez up to catch Saturday’s or Sunday’s game. Whatever the case, the Indians lineup takes a huge hit without Victor in it. Victor has established himself as one of the best offensive catchers in baseball, and it’s a big drop between him and Tim Laker.

As for Pote, he’ll probably clear waivers and join the dozen or so ex-Indians in the Buffalo bullpen. He was reportedly acquired from Oakland for $1, and I doubt two weeks have changed the opinions of the other GMs in baseball.

This also clears a 40-man roster spot for Scott Elarton, who is (unofficially) going to make a start this series. Kaz Tadano will probably be sent down to make his scheduled start in Buffalo.

by

The Draft

Out of all the four major sports, baseball’s draft is the least relevant to the team in the short-term. But that doesn’t mean it can’t make or break a team’s farm system. The Indians had awful drafts in the late 1990s, and therefore had an awful farm system in 2001-2002. That’s one of the reasons why Mark Shapiro decided to gut the Indians in 2002 and start over. The biggest reason why the Atlanta Braves have stayed successful since 1991? Excellent drafting and excellent player development.

So with that in mind, let’s take a cursory look at the first couple picks in this year’s draft. If you want a more in-depth look at who the Indians picked, I suggest you look at the always excellent Cleveland Indians Report.

Jeremy Sowers isn’t what I’d term a “sexy” pick. He’s not going to throw 95 mph. He isn’t some high school phenom with huge upside. But Sowers is the biggest bet among the pitchers in the draft to become a solid major league starter. In a draft where the talent wasn’t what it had been in the past couple year,(Contrary to popular belief, Jered Weaver is in no shape or form the next Mark Prior), getting Sowers is a nice pick for the Indians. He’ll move fairly fast through the system (He’s projected to at least see Kinston this year).

Round 2 saw the Indians take another college arm from a strong conference. Justin Hoyman is a sinkerball pitcher that should also move fairly fast through the system. I don’t really know if he’s any more than a 4th starter in the majors, but again, the success rate for draft picks is so small that I’ll definitely take it. For reference, Zach Sorensen was the 2nd Round pick of the Indians in 1998.

The pick I’m really excited about is LHP Scott Lewis in Round 3. He dominated the Big 10 in 2003, and would have been a first round pick had he not been injured. He’s healthy now, but didn’t pitch enough inning this year to get first round consideration. If the Indians sign him, he could be a steal.

And finally, the Indians went for upside when they picked Chuck Lofgren in the 4th Round. He was scouted as both a pitcher and an outfielder, but the Indians want to make him a pitcher.

by

Transactions

Placed RHSP Joe Dawley on the 15-day Disabled List (elbow)

Recalled RHRP Kazuhito Tadano from Buffalo (AAA)

Reinstated RHRP Kane Davis (AAA) from the Disabled List

Tadano will probably only be in Cleveland until Sunday, when a starter (most likely Scott Elarton) will be recalled. Elarton has an “out” clause if he isn’t in the majors by June 28th, so the Indians will give him a shot. If he doesn’t work out, no big loss.

by

Whitney Returns

Promoted 3B Matt Whitney to Lake County (A-) from Extended Spring

Demoted IF Luis Cotto to Extended Spring from Lake County

Juan Gonzalez’s going away present (supp. round, 2002) returns after a freak accident in Spring Training of 2003. Although his injury wasn’t as noted as Alex Escobar’s, it may have been more damaging. Whitney may have been playing third base for the Akron Aeros tonight instead of DHing for the Captains, Hector Luna may have been protected over Corey Smith, and the Indians might have been content to stay with Casey Blake until Whitney was ready. Well, the last part may still happen, but Whitney’s timetable for the big leagues has been set back just about 2 years because of the injury.

How special was Whitney before the injury? Baseball Prospectus has a Similarity Index on their PECOTA cards that measures their “historical uniqueness”. The lower the score, the more unique the player is. Anything below 20 is historically unusual. Whitney rated a 2. Yes, he’s pretty special.

I doubt that they’ll do anything drastic with Whitney this year. 2004 is meant only for Whitney to get back into playing shape.

by

Transactions

Traded LHRP Matt White to the Kansas City Royals for a Player to be Named Later

White’s trans-continental travels continue. Last year, he spent time with in Seattle and Boston, before being returned to Cleveland as a Rule 5 pick. This year he was selected again in the Rule 5 draft, this time by Colorado. He was then claimed off waivers by the Indians and outrighted off the 40-man roster. He’s spent the first couple months of the season in Buffalo. Now he’s off to Omaha. The Indians should receive some type of useful minor-league player for White, as he’s left-handed and fairly young still. But being a southpaw will take White only so far, as he hasn’t been able to get AAA hitters out, allowing an astonishing 45 hits in 31.2 IP.

Back to the majors for a bit. I think we can safely start to identify who should be part of the 2005 contending Indians. These are the players who could conceivably be good enough to be a contributing member of a playoff team. I have the list at 7:

LF Matt Lawton

CF Jody Gerut

CA Victor Martinez

DH Travis Hafner

SP CC Sabathia

SP Cliff Lee

RP Rafael Betancourt

Now of course, some players currently on the roster will most likely still be around. Ronnie Belliard might be re-signed. Casey Blake may become a bench player. And I’m not including injured players like Josh Bard, Ryan Ludwick, and Billy Traber. Brandon Phillips is most likely going to be the shortstop next year. David Riske should be part of the bullpen if he continues to improve. And someone from the group of Jason Davis, Jake Westbrook, Jason Stanford, and Kyle Denney might be the 4th or 5th starter in next year’s rotation.

As we get closer to the end of the season, I’ll explore which potential free agents might fit with the Indians.

by

Some Surprises, and Some Not-so-Surprises

At the end of this month Player Development Director John Farrell likes to make promotions. With the exception of the Buffalo starters and some injuries in Akron, the system is full of players who have played to and even above expectations. Here’s a couple prospects you probably know about, and a couple you didn’t even know existed:

1B Michael Aubrey, Kinston (A+) Age 22

171 AB, .322/.406/.538, 8 HR, 11 2B, 23 SO, 17 BB

If the season ended today, I’d have a tough decision naming the Indians’ #1 prospect. But for now, Aubrey gets the nod given his all-around game and his impressive debut at a fairly high level. He’s probably one of the most polished hitting prospects in the minors, and is said to have Gold Glove potential at first base. I’ve seen some comparisons to Rockies superstar Todd Helton, and while every promising player is the next somebody, you can see the similarities. He’s going to be promoted to Akron soon, and that’s a pretty big test for a prospect. But given his plate discipline, I don’t think he’ll have too much trouble moving quickly through the high minors and arrive in Cleveland some time next year. This is the Indians’ first baseman for the next ten years.

OF Franklin Gutierrez, Akron (AA) Age 21

187 AB, .299/.374/.449, 16 2B, 4 HR, 57 SO, 18 BB

He’d be the #1 prospect for a lot of teams. His upside is a little higher that Aubrey’s, but there’s more risk here. He’s doing very well in AA considering his age, and on pace to eclipse the numbers Grady Sizemore put up here last season. He has definite power potential, and the amount of doubles he’s been hitting shows that. His plate discipline is improving a bit, and if continues to do so, he should see Cleveland in late 2005 or early 2006 as either a center fielder or a right fielder. Trading Milton Bradley certainly hurt the club in the short-term (he’d be an obvious upgrade over Alex Escobar/Coco Crisp), but Mark Shapiro definitely received some outstanding prospects for him.

OF Grady Sizemore, Buffalo (AAA) Age 21

203 AB, .261/.343/.414, 9 2B, 5 3B, 4 HR, 36 SO, 24 BB

His numbers may seem a bit pedestrian compared to Aubrey and Gutierrez, but Grady has picked up the pace in the last two weeks. In Spring Training, he lost 15 pounds due to sickness, and started out of the gates slow. But there are still a lot to like about Grady; he’s still walking, and the power is coming. In a perfect world, he’d be a center fielder in Cleveland, but he may have to move over to left field when Matt Lawton leaves. He should make his major-league debut in August or September.

RHP Andrew Brown, Akron (AA) Age 23

40.1 IP, 4.02 ERA, 58 SO, 14 BB (Jacksonville)

9.2 IP, 1.86 ERA, 15 SO, 4 BB (Akron)

When evaluating a minor-league pitcher, I go right past wins/losses and ERA to his strikeouts and walks. And I like what I see with Brown. Sidelined with arm problems last year, he was one of the players Mark Shapiro considered for the PTBNL in the Milton Bradley trade. And although he didn’t have to choose anyone until the end of June, Brown’s numbers made the choice extremely easy. He’ll probably be promoted to Buffalo at the end of the month, and may get a September callup. I’d really like to see him stay a starter, and hopefully the Indians can withstand the temptation throw him into the bullpen because of a need in Cleveland. Of course, the obvious caveat with Brown is if he can stay injury-free, but guys who strikeout 73 in 51 innings don’t come along every day.

RHP Adam Miller, Lake County (A-) Age 19

55.0 IP, 2.95 ERA, 65 SO, 17 BB

High school pitchers are the riskiest of propositions for clubs to draft high, but the Indians seem to hit the jackpot with Miller. Yes, he’s still in low A-ball, there’s always the risk of injury, and TINSTAAP. But Miller is dominating hitters with a fastball that reaches 95 mph, and a very good slider. Obviously I’m not going to pencil him into the Cleveland rotation yet (I’ll save that conversation for when he gets to Akron), but I’m calling your attention to him now.

CA Ryan Garko, Kinston (A+) Age 23

170 AB, .341/.432/.618, 14 2B, 11 HR, 26 SO, 15 BB

He’s putting up gaudy numbers, but he needs to be moved fast to see how good he really is. Garko was drafted last year as a college senior, and his age is going cloud any discussions of his prospect status. I’m pleasantly surprised, but I’ll see how he does in AA first. His upside is a guy like Matt LeCroy, who can mash and play the catcher position passably.

RHP Fausto Carmona, Kinston (A+) Age 20

58.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 50 SO, 18 BB

The fact that his strikeout ratios are improving after a promotion is definitely encouraging. Last year, he dominated the South Atlantic League with pinpoint control. Now he’s missing bats, and will probably move to Akron soon. He has a “projectable frame”, so there is still some room for his stuff to get a little better.

Others that are worthy: Jake Dittler, Ryan Goleski, Kyle Denney, Dan Denham, Nathan Panther, Brandon Pinckney, Kevin Kouzmanoff

by

Transactions

Demoted RHRP Chip Southerland to Extended Spring from Lake County (A-)

Promoted RHRP Bo Ashabraner to Lake County (A-) from Extended Spring

Traded RHSP Robert Ellis (AAA) to the Philadelphia Phillies for “Future Considerations”

Reinstated RHSP Kyle Denney (AAA) from the Disabled List (knee)

Outrighted RHSP Chad Durbin to Buffalo (AAA)

After a two hiatus, the “Free Kyle Denney” movement is about to pick up steam. With only Joe Dawley standing between him and the majors, tonight’s start may give Denney his ticket to Cleveland. Dawley will get at least one more start against Anaheim, so he’ll have an opportunity to stay in Cleveland’s rotation.

I guess SWB needed another body; that’s the only rationale I have for them to trade for Ellis. Or maybe they sent back another useless body in return.