2000s

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Tough Loss

 

Jake Westbrook deserved much better than a complete-game loss. The lineup he faced is right now arguably the worst (or second-worst) lineup in the league, but the way Jake’s pitches were moving, he would have pitched well against any team in baseball. He made just two mistakes. Frustrating, to say the least.

 

The fan in me really wants the Indians to go on a run the last two weeks of July and make things interesting for the Twins and White Sox, but the realist in me sees the offense propelled by two players who haven’t played a full season in the majors yet (Martinez and Hafner) and two veterens having career years (Belliard and Lawton). Lawton will probably continue to hit, but Victor Martinez is in the midst of a prolonged slump, and Belliard’s numbers are leaning heavily on his hot April. That being said, it’s pretty exciting to see some pieces fall into place. The Lee/Hafner/Martinez/Gerut group is the just the first wave of prospects that the Indians should be receiving in the next couple years. In 2005, you could see Kyle Denney, Grady Sizemore, Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Phillips, and Fernando Cabrera make contributions to the big club. This doesn’t include the returns of Jason Stanford, Brian Tallet, Billy Traber, Ryan Ludwick, and Josh Bard from extended injuries.

 

As I’ve said before, the Indians don’t have a lot of guarenteed contracts that continue after this season; Matt Lawton, CC Sabathia, and the recently-signed Aaron Boone are the one ones due money next year. Jake Westbrook and David Riske are probably going to get big raises in arbitration, and the Indians have expressed interested in signing Victor Martinez through his arbitration years. But as a whole, the Indians still have a lot of good pre-arbitration players on the roster. So this offseason is the time to open the checkbook and bring in some strategic free agents.

 

 

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Prospect Review: Grady Sizemore and Fernando Cabrera

Wrapping my overview of Buffalo’s prospects with two highly-regarded players:

RHRP Fernando Cabrera

Age: 22 (Born 11-16-1981)

Roster Status: On 40-man Roster

2004 Stats (AAA): 50.0 IP, 4.68 ERA, 57 SO, 35 BB

Ranked #5 in Cleveland’s organization by Baseball America

The above numbers can be deceiving, as Fernando has been lights out in the last month or so, as he was adjusting to the bullpen. In the past two years, the Indians, seeing Cabrera’s good fastball/split combo, have eased Cabrera into a relief role. Cabrera can throw in the mid 90s, but he still has to throw them for strikes in order to succeed in Cleveland. However, with the Indians bullpen in flux, Cabrera should get a September callup at the very least. He projects as a major-league closer, or at least an effective setup man.

OF Grady Sizemore

Age: 21 (Born 8-2-1982)

Roster Status: On 40-man Roster

2004 Stats (AAA): 374 AB, .302/.368/.457, 21 2B, 7 HR

Ranked #1 in Cleveland’s organization by Baseball America (#7 overall in their midseason rankings)

The crown jewel of the system, Grady has just about everything you want in a major-league hitter; good plate discipline, the ability to hit for average, power potential, a quick bat, and the ability to hit to all fields. If he can stick in center field, he has All-Star potential. With Franklin Gutierrez a year behind him and only Coco Crisp in front of him, the time is now for Grady to get a long extended shot in center. Sizemore’s arm is his only real weakness, and the reason he might move over to left when Matt Lawton departs. This time next year, it’s very possible to see Victor Martinez, Brandon Phillips, Jhonny Peralta, and Grady Sizemore playing up the middle in Cleveland, with all four 25 or younger.

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Prospect Review: Kyle Denney and Eric Crozier

Moving on with my look at the minors:

These two players aren’t going to make any prospect lists due to their age, but they also have good chances of helping out a major league club before their careers are over.

RHSP Kyle Denney

Age: 26 (Born 7/27/1977)

Roster Status: Off 40-man roster

Rule 5: Eligible

2004 Stats: 86.0 IP, 3.77 ERA, 78 SO, 24 BB

As far as starting pitchers, he’s the best option the Indians have in the minors to come in and contribute. Like Jason Stanford, Denney has quietly overcome higher draft picks throughout every level in the organization, and it looks like the Indians are finally fitting him into their long-range plans. He’s not going to blow anyone away with his stuff, but he has good enough command to avoid walks and even miss bats. You could do much worse for a 5th starter, as the Indians have found out recently. With the demotion of Jason Davis, all that’s standing in Denney’s way is Scott Elarton. Do I really need to say anything else?

1B Eric Crozier

Age: 25 (Born 8/17/1978)

Roster Status: Off 40-man roster

Rule 5: Eligible

2004 Stats: 221 AB, .299/.382/.615, 16 2B, 18 HR

Eric is a full two years younger than Ben Broussard, so there’s a legitimate case to be made that Eric deserves a shot at first base before the end of the year. He fought injuries in 2003, and this is his first year in Buffalo, so I think he still should be considered a prospect. Like Denney, Crozier wasn’t a top draft pick, so he too has had to fight past more celebrated prospects to get where he is. He recently was named the International League Player of the Month for June. You could argue that Crozier is the best player the Indians drafted in 2000, and Eric was drafted in the 41st round. Only Brian Tallet has made the majors, and Crozier might be the second if he beats out Ryan Church.

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The Forgotten Prospects

With the Indians slowly sinking into oblivion this year, now is probably a good time to talk about the future of this team.

I’d like to start with two players that aren’t considered prospects anymore because of their major-league experience, but their age, position, and success really makes them de facto prospects.

I’m talking about Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Phillips. Both can play shortstop, but the similarities really end there. Phillips projects as a slick-fielding shortstop who should be able to hit for a high average and steal bases. Peralta looks more like a power-hitting third baseman if he continues to fill out.

Both were rushed to the majors in 2003, and both were among the youngest position players in the majors. And both didn’t fare too well. However, their age had more to do with that than their ability. Witness what they are doing in Buffalo this year:

Phillips 291 AB, .299/.354/.416, 17 2B, 5 HR, 23 BB, 35 SO

Peralta 338 AB, .334/.385/.500, 27 2B, 9 HR, 29 BB, 77 SO

While it’s nice to see some improvements from Phillips, especially in the plate discipline, Peralta is having a breakout season. 36 extra base hits is very impressive, and even more impressive that 7 of his 9 home runs have come within the last three weeks.

So where do the two fit next year? Both look ready for another shot in the bigs, but there might not be room enough for the two of them. Shortstop will be vacant, but unless someone is dealt or non-tendered, the rest of the infield has been spoken for, as I’ve stated when the Indians signed Aaron Boone. Phillips probably has the advantage because of his defensive ability, but will the Indians ignore the power that Peralta could provide from that position? That’s a question that might not be answered until late March of 2005.

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Transactions

Reinstated OF Ryan Ludwick and C Josh Bard from the 60-day Disabled List; Optioned them to Buffalo (AAA)

Transferred RHSP Joe Dawley to the 60-day Disabled List (elbow)

Designated LHRP Scott Stewart (AAA) for Assignment

This looks more complicated than it actually is. The Indians used up the block of time allowable on Bard’s and Ludwick’s rehab assignments, which is around 3 weeks. Therefore, they had to activate them from the disabled list. This meant the Indians had to clear two spots on the 40-man roster, since the two were formerly on the 60-day Disabled List.

One move was fairly easy; Joe Dawley probably isn’t going to pitch in Cleveland the rest of the season, judging by the nature of his injury (elbow), the lack of progress reports, and the appearance of more appealing candidates (Tadano, Denney).

However, clearing the other spot wasn’t going to be easy. The Indians for the past couple of years have had 40-man rosters chock full of good young talent, and very few, shall we say, fungible, players. Rick White might be that kind of a player on a team with a better bullpen, but that team isn’t the 2004 Indians. Corey Smith is playing his way off the roster, but it’s probably too soon to make a rash judgment on a player that young. So the Indians cut bait on Scott Stewart, and recognized a sunk cost when they saw one. Stewart’s numbers were as awful in Buffalo as they were in Cleveland. A team with a free roster spot might want to take a shot at Stewart and hope he works out a year or so down the line, but he isn’t going to help anyone this year. If he does clear waivers, I’m fairly certain the Indians can outright him to Buffalo without his permission. Still, that doesn’t dull the pain of seeing Ryan Church light up the International League.

Reinforcements

Good news is on the way for the beleaguered bullpen. Bob Howry is back from injury, and to this point looks healthy and effective. Bob Wickman may return this week, or at the very least, after the All-Star Break. And Rafael Betancourt should be back after his 15 days on the DL are up. So what will the bullpen look like in two weeks? Here’s my view:

CL David Riske

RP Rafael Betancourt

RP Matt Miller

RP Bob Howry

RP Bob Wickman

RP Rick White

LM Kaz Tadano

This probably means Jeriome Robertson, who was pretending to be a LOOGY, will be optioned back to Buffalo to presumedly start, and Jose Jimenez will be shown the door. Yes, you’re left with 7 right-handed pitchers, but what’s the use of keeping a left-hander around if he can’t get left-handers out? Riske and Betancourt don’t have too many troubles with lefties, and Matt Miller is probably the one guy you don’t want facing a left-hander.

Not Selling, But What About Buying?

Mark Shapiro said over the weekend that the team wasn’t going to unload any players, regardless of what happens over the month of July. This is probably a good thing, as the last thing the local media needs is more ammunition for the Dolan is Cheap! movement. And secondly, there isn’t much to “sell;” the most attractive tradable commodity would have been Ronnie Belliard, but as we’ve found out recently, he’s not a free agent after the season.

The bigger question has become, therefore, will the Indians be buyers? Shapiro has set a couple games over .500 as the mark where he feels the Indians will be contenders, and therefore be looking to acquire players in order to win the division. Given the upcoming schedule, it’s not likely for the Indians to be above .500 in a couple weeks:

July 6-8 Texas

July 9-11 Oakland

July 15-18 @Seattle

July 19-20 @Anaheim

Texas and Oakland are playing extremely well now, and it might be too late for the Indians to get to contender status by the time they reach Seattle. And given who the Indians are looking at, standing pat doesn’t seem such a bad idea. Of course, Minnesota and Chicago continue to tease the rest of the division by playing mediocre baseball, but you’d have to think one or the other is going to go on a run shortly. Meanwhile, the Indians are still ahead of schedule as far the rebuilding plan goes, and the added fan interest garnered by near-contention is an added bonus. Now it’s up to Larry Dolan to spend the money like he promised during the off-season.

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Transactions

Purchased the Contracts of RHRP Bob Howry and OF Mark Little from Buffalo (AAA); Recalled them to Cleveland

Howry looks to be ready to go physically, so he’s going to be given a shot. Before his injury last year, Bob has been a fairly steady setup man for Chicago and Boston. I’m not expecting too much from him, but given the current state of the bullpen, “not too much” is more than adequate.

Mark Little is this week’s fourth outfielder. He’s had a productive season in Buffalo, hitting .314/.348/.566 with 16 doubles and 11 home runs. He bats right-handed, so that’s a plus. He can also play all three outfield positions. If the Indians didn’t have so much outfield depth, he might be playing center field for them right now.

Optioned LHRP Cliff Bartosh to Buffalo (AAA)

A left-handed pitcher who can’t get left-handed hitters out. Hmmm.

Designated RHRP Jack Cressend for Assignment

A smart GM with a bad bullpen might claim Cressend off waivers for a short-term fix. Which begs the question, why is he going through waivers in the first place? He’s put up very good numbers in Buffalo, but he’s more a victim of circumstance than anything; the Indians desperately needed another arm for Sunday’s game. Now they need a fourth outfielder. And Bob Howry had a clause in his contract forcing him to be in the majors by July, or he becomes a free agent. So it goes.

Transferred 3B Aaron Boone to the 60-day Disabled List (knee)

Since the Indians can place him on the disabled list retroactively to the date of the injury, this is more of a move designed to create a roster spot than anything.

Promoted LHSP Keith Ramsey to Buffalo (AAA) from Kinston (A+)

He was only in Buffalo for a spot start, but he pitched well. He’s one of the organization’s unsung arms, so he might stick around the rest of the year in the high minors so the Indians can determine how good he really is.

Promoted LHRP Chris Cooper to Akron (AA) from Kinston (A+)

Demoted P Jose Vargas to Kinston (A+) from Akron (AA)