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I bring this up for two reasons. One, it cements my belief that bringing back Wickman was the right move. And two, it means the Indians lose out on the Giants’ draft pick bonanza.

Point one. While I like Benitez, and he was the best closer by far on the market, spending $21M on him isn’t what I’d call a good investment. He’s probably a better bet than Troy Percival to be worth what he’s getting, but after seeing what happened with past reliever contracts, I just don’t think spending that much on a closer is a good outlay of money. Especially in a situation where you have a fixed amount of money to spend. I’d rather spend $21M on a starter than a closer if I had the choice.

Point two. The Indians won’t have the Giants’ first round pick; that will be going to Florida because of Benitez’s higher Elias ranking. If the Giants sign another Type A free agent (Steve Finley is a possibility), the pick the Indians receive could be even lower. It’s obvious the Giants really don’t care about high draft picks, and judging by the amount of cash they’re shelling out, are trying to win right now. One of my interests as far as baseball is concerned is a team’s “big picture” strategy, and what Brian Sabean is doing is pretty fascinating. He knows he has at best 2-3 years left of Barry Bonds’ career, and he is literally going for broke in order to win a championship before Bonds retires. And that means funneling virtually all the teams’ money, including draft pick bonuses, into the free agent pool. While I think this strategy is going to land the Giants in a huge mess in 2007 or so, I don’t think Sabean really cares about that. Not while Bonds is still playing. Maybe during the winter I’ll look into the method to his madness a bit further, but for now, the Indians simply lose their first round draft pick.

A Couple Interesting Signings

Invited RHP Steve Watkins to Spring Training

Signed SS Erick Almonte and OF John Rodriguez to minor-league contracts; Invited them to Spring Training

You’ve probably heard of Almonte; when Derek Jeter went down in 2003, Almonte got some playing time in New York. But after Jeter returned, Almonte was shuttled back to Columbus. After the 2003 season, he signed with the Colorado Rockies and played the entire 2004 season in Colorado Springs, where he hit .318/.402/.507. Keep in mind, though, that those offensive numbers are inflated because of the altitude, but his K/BB ratio was 87/64, which is outstanding. Right now, Almonte is probably going to be that third shortstop in camp, along with Peralta and Phillips, and may be kept around as a utility infielder, depending on how Phillips performs. If not, then he’ll go down to Buffalo as an insurance policy.

John Rodriguez is another former Yankee farmhand who also had his best profession season in 2004. With Columbus he hit .294/.382/.542, with 26 doubles and 16 home runs in 378 at-bats. There was no way he was going to see Yankee Stadium, so maybe he’s doing the next best thing by playing somewhat closer to home in Buffalo. He can play center field, so that’s likely where he’ll play with the Bisons now that Jason Tyner has moved on.

Moving on with my quasi-weekly player reviews:

OF Ryan Ludwick – Age 26
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
2004 EQA: .221 (50 AB)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2006)

Injuries have put Ludwick’s career on hold. After coming over from the Rangers for Ricardo Rodriguez, Ludwick injured his right knee towards the end of the 2003 season, and wasn’t much of a factor in 2004. As things stand right now, he’s the fourth outfielder, and barring a breakout season, looks to stay that way. I like his power a lot, but with Coco Crisp and Grady Sizemore ahead of him on the depth chart, he may not get much playing time, and I’m not even considering Jody Gerut. If the Indians can deal Matt Lawton, he may get more playing time, but if Lawton is dealt, Casey Blake would probably be heading to the outfield. So it looks like Ludwick is stuck in a numbers game, or at best, stuck as a platoon outfielder in 2005.

RHRP Matt Miller – Age 32
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
2004 VORP: 16.6
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2006)

Miller, like Betancourt before him, was plucked out of minor-league free agency and became an effective reliever in the Indians’ bullpen. The sidearmer struck out an impressive 55 batters in 55.1 IP, and allowed only 42 hits. Like most gimmick pitchers, there’s a real possibility teams will figure Matt out eventually, but until they do, Miller should serve nicely a right-handed matchup guy; right-handers hit a paltry .201 against him.

SS Jhonny Peralta – Age 22
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2006)

Most likely the next Indians shortstop. Yes, Mark Shapiro is saying publicly that Peralta and Phillips are going to compete for the job, but I think that’s mainly to cover all his bases. Peralta had a far better year than Phillips at Buffalo, posting a major-league equivalent of .256 with the Bisons. Peralta also took home the International League MVP, which is a nice accomplishment considering the he was one of the younger players in AAA. Peralta’s most exciting aspect is his power, although it may take a year or two to manifest itself completely. Peralta is certainly not Vizquel’s equal defensively, but by the same token shouldn’t embarrass himself. While he may eventually move to third, he should be a nice major-league shortsop for the next 3-4 years.

SS Brandon Phillips – Age 23
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2006)

He recovered somewhat after his [place adjective here] 2003 campaign, in which he hit .208/.242/.311. Just looking at those numbers give me goosebumps; never mind remembering him hit that season. Right now Phillips, assuming he doesn’t beat out Peralta at shortstop, is headed back to Buffalo or will stick in Cleveland as a utility infielder. I’m hoping he doesn’t turn into Enrique Wilson v. 2.0, but that’s what it’s looking like right now. With second base an unsettled issue, Phillips may get another chance in 2006, but not likely this upcoming season; If Belliard doesn’t return, Casey Blake will play there. Coco Crisp opened a lot of eyes after an initial poor showing, and Brandon is definitely young enough to make a nice career for himself. But he has a lot to prove in order to get another chance.

After the first flurry of activity, this period of the offseason tends to be very quiet. Until the next round of GM meetings, when the true Hot Stove season gets started. When agents, GMs, players, and the media all get together, things tend to get done quickly. By then most of the preliminary talks have concluded, and free agents generally have their choices narrowed down to a small number of suitors. In recent years, the arbitration deadline has become an important milestone, because some clubs do not want to give up high picks if they can help it. The Indians don’t really have to worry about offering arbitration to any of their pending free agents, because the only two that were ranked by Elias have been signed (Bob Wickman and Omar Vizquel). Since their record placed them in the bottom half of the league, they won’t have to give up their first round pick if they do sign a Lieber or Clement, but they probably will give up a second round pick if they do sign a decent pitcher.

Besides writing about waiting, I’d like to get something off my chest while there’s nothing else to talk about.

Yesterday the Indians placed Opening Day tickets on sale, and won’t start selling the other single game tickets until after the New Year. Why are they doing this? I think the biggest reason is to encourage season ticket sales. Another reason is to help to sell out Opening Day. If next March Bob DiBiasio is appearing on Spring Training broadcasts pleading for fans to buy Opening Day tickets, there’s something wrong with the fanbase. And I mean that seriously. I understood why people stayed away during the beginning of the season last year; the team was coming off a bad year, and they had just traded away their best player. But now there’s no excuse. The team is coming off a season where they finished two games below .500, and for a brief period of time was a serious contender for the division. Aside from Omar Vizquel (and I’ve beaten that horse to death), the team should bring virtually everyone back.

So why is there so much perceived apathy towards this team? I can think of a couple reasons. One, the Browns and Cavaliers are bigger draws right now. LeBron attracts fans that aren’t necessarily basketball fans, and the Browns, no matter how much ineptitude they show, will still sell out games because of how engrained Browns football is in people throughout this region. Truthfully, the Indians have been the most well-run franchise in Cleveland since they set up shop in Jacobs Field. But facts generally do not attract the non-core fans; perceptions do; this is my second reason. Perception: Since the Browns are in the NFL, they have a good chance of making the playoffs. Perception: LeBron is playing, therefore the Cavaliers are worth watching. Perception: the Indians don’t spend any money, therefore they don’t deserve mine. The Indians don’t have a LeBron James on their roster. They don’t have a history sprinkled with multiple championships. Therefore right now, even though the team posted a higher winning percentage then either the Cavaliers or the Browns last year, they seem to be pretty much forgotten.

I hope I’m wrong about the ticket sales, but even though they made the correct decision letting Vizquel go, they may sell less tickets because of it. Now if the Indians had gone out and loudly signed Armando Benitez to a multi-year contract instead of bringing back rickety old Bob Wickman, people might have said “Yeah, the Indians are spending more money, so I might go down and watch them play.” Again, this is where I bring up the difference between money spent and money spent wisely. Because the attendance was poor last season, the payroll will increase, but not by much. This model hasn’t changed one iota since the team moved to Jacobs Field; the payroll is based largely on attendance. What has changed is the opinion of the team in the eyes of the fans. In 1991, the payroll was extremely low, and nobody really cared, since the team hadn’t made the playoffs since 1954. Now the payroll’s low and everyone cares, mainly because the team has a recent history of success. “Because Dolan won’t spend the money, I won’t go” is a common phrase I hear. Unfortunately, this perpetuates the process into future low payrolls, future fan apathy, and on and on.

How do you turn this around? Change your criteria for supporting a team. Go if the team wins. Stay home if they don’t. It’s as simple as that. I don’t care if the Indians field a team that has a $20M payroll; if they win, show up. If the Indians spend $100M and lose 100 games, then stay home and play golf. Because of the nature of the MLB salary structure, most rebuilding teams have a lot of young talent, which by definition means they won’t cost much. The Indians were the most cost-efficient team in baseball because of this. They spent $833,417 per marginal win, the best in baseball. What does this mean? While the Indians were definitely “cheap,” they also were good. Why reward teams who foolishly spend their money, and punish those who use what they have wisely? That in my opinion is why wins-based attendance is a more fair feedback mechanism than a spending-based model. While spending may lead to better a record, it may also lead to a worse one. Winning more games always leads to a better outcome. Winning more games leads to more attendance, and unless the owner is a crook, a higher payroll. It seems so simple, doesn’t it? I mean, isn’t this basic supply and demand?

Unfortunately, perception is a powerful tool. And because the current perception of the Indians is negative, becuase they aren’t outspending everyone in the division, then attendance will probably be lower than it should be. Larry Dolan, unfortunately, isn’t going to spend money he doesn’t bring in; there isn’t going to be any owner-provided catalyst to bring fans back. The kickstart will have to come from the team itself, and if it does, there’s no excuse for not showing up.

Signed OF Andy Abad and OF Jeff Liefer to minor-league contracts and Invited them to Spring Training

Both are AAAA* players, and will probably spend most of the season with Buffalo.

Abad is an interesting player. He’s only had 18 total at-bats in the majors, yet has posted numbers that should have garnered him more of a shot. He could easily be a fourth outfielder, or a platoon first baseman. I have no idea how good he is defensively, aside from what little time he spent in the majors. I don’t see him getting a shot with the Indians unless there’s a massive amount of injuries. Probably the quickest way to Cleveland is at first base, where Ryan Garko is the only major-league ready 1B in the high minors. Abad has shown real good plate discipline his entire career, and although he’s not much of a home run threat, hit 35 doubles for Pawtucket in 2003.

Jeff Liefer is more of the same; a first baseman/outfielder. You might remember him with the White Sox in the past couple years; he was also part of the package that brought Bartolo Colon to the Sox. Liefer is still living off his 18 home runs in 2001, but at this point in his career he’s properly cast as a AAA slugger. He’s not a good defender at first or in the outfield.

*Refers to players who are good in AAA, but aren’t good enough to play regularly in the majors

Re-signed RHRP Bob Wickman to a one year, $2.75M contract (plus incentives)

Probably the smart thing to do. After Percival signed with Detroit, the Indians were down to realistically three options:

A. Pay Benitez over $20M to be your closer for 3-4 years
B. Bring back Wickman for another season
C. Take a gamble on Dustin Hermanson

I guess you could say that there’s D (Trade for a closer) or E (None of the above), but neither was really an option. In the end, Shapiro chose the safer route, paying just under $3M for a one-year stopgap. Wicky is by no means a great closer, or even a good closer at this stage of his career. What he is is a guy who’s done it before, and he at least gives the Indians a baseline to work off of. For a reasonable price. The Rockies made a pitch for Wickman, but presumably the Indians matched or exceeded the Rockies’ offer. If the Indians’ hadn’t signed Wickman, it would have been Hermanson or guys like Rob Nen or Matt Mantei, who both have even bigger injury questions attached to them.

What this signing also does is make virtually every free agent starter within striking range. The Indians supposedly have about $7M left in their budget to land a starter, and other than Carl Pavano and Pedro Martinez, they can go after anyone that’s out there. The big catch in the second tier of starters is Matt Clement, who the Indians are aggresively courting, but Jon Lieber has also been linked to the organization. I’d go up to 3/24 for Clement and up to 3/18 for Lieber. That’s probably overpaying for both of them, but given what Kris Benson just received from the Mets, those salaries look like the going rate for a #3 starter.

Another interesting route the Indians can go is to maybe trade for some pitching help. Coco Crisp may be at his highest value right now, and there are several teams looking for a center fielder. I’m not suggesting trading Crisp just to trade him, but if you can get a quality starter for Crisp and a prospect, you should think about it. If Belliard is retained, then you move Blake to the outfield, creating a jam between Casey and Crisp, Sizemore, Lawton, and Ludwick. Maybe you can dump Lawton somewhere; there aren’t a lot of outfielders out there, and Matt may start to look nice compared to the free agent options.

Designated IF John McDonald for Assignment

McDonald may actually be dealt before the 10-day period ends. With so many clubs looking for middle infield help, McDonald may, like I said yesterday, be more expensive on the open market, so teams may want to get him before he becomes a free agent. Whoever acquires him theoretically can keep him through 2007, so the Indians may pick up a minor prospect.

The Minnesota Twins signed utility infielder Juan Castro to a two-year, $2M contract last night. Castro is your standard defensive specialist, but Castro is horrendous at the plate, even for a backup infielder. His lifetime batting statistics: .226/.269/.331. And this isn’t due to any sample size error; Castro has impersonated a hitter almost 1600 times in his career.

This leads to John McDonald, who is also a defensive specialist who can’t hit. If Castro is worth a two-year deal, McDonald might be worth at least something. Given that McDonald may well be worth more on the open market than in arbitration given Castro’s deal, this may push teams to go ahead and trade for McDonald rather than to wait for him to become a free agent. Strange times, eh?

Prospects

Baseball America released its list of the Indians’ top ten prospects yesterday. I disagree with a couple placements, including slotting Ryan Garko that low. I understand he doesn’t really have a position, but Garko is the closest of that group to the majors, is the best all-around hitter in the system, and he’s still considered a catcher. There’s no way he’s a better prospect than Aubrey, Miller, or Gutierrez, but placing him behind Snyder and Sowers is a bit too much. I’m also a bit puzzled why Nick Pesco made the list and not Jake Dittler. Jeremy Sowers is probably going to be a nice pitcher, but I’d rather wait and see how he does as a professional before placing him that high. Again, I understand where BA is coming from; they’ve always been about projection and upside, but in my opinion results have to matter at some point. Here’s my ‘shadow’ list:

1. RHP Adam Miller
2. 1B Michael Aubrey
3. OF Franklin Gutierrez
4. C/1B Ryan Garko
5. RHP Fausto Carmona
6. OF Brad Snyder
7. RHP Fernando Cabrera
8. RHP Andrew Brown
9. RHP Jake Dittler
10. LHP Jeremy Sowers

Not a whole lot different than BA’s list, except for swapping out Pesco for Dittler, moving Sowers down, and Garko up. I’m buying into the Miller hype, but I was *this* close to placing Aubrey ahead of him; I really like Aubrey’s total package of defense and offense at first base. The Todd Helton comparisons are probably overblown, but I really think Aubrey will be a very good major league player. If Miller stays healthy, his ceiling is extremely high, but so is the burnout rate for promising young arms. Gutierrez is a pretty solid #3: Alex Escobar’s flameout is really tempering my enthusiasm for Franklin right now, but he’s hitting well in Venezuela thus far.

Just for kicks, here’s my second ten:

11. OF Ryan Goleski
12. RHP Francisco Cruceta
13. RHP Nick Pesco
14. 3B Pat Osborn
15. OF Jason Cooper
16. 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
17. RHP Justin Hoyman
18. LHP Dan Cevette
19. OF Juan Valdes
20. RHP Tony Sipp

Mostly a lot of decent prospects, with a couple of high-ceiling guys sprinkled in. I still like Pat Osborn, despite his injury problems. Cruceta I probably rated higher than others would, but he’s pretty close to the majors, so the margin of error isn’t as high as with guys like Pesco and Cevette. Valdes is a projection pick, as is Sipp. Both put up real intriguing numbers in short-season ball, and I’ve added them as a kind of heads-up; they may shoot up the list in the next couple years.

While the Indians system may not have as many blue-chippers as in past years, there’s a lot of depth there. I’ve left out guys like Matt Whitney and Mariano Gomez, both of whom were ranked highly before suffering injuries. And unlike in the past couple years, only two players came from other organizations; in fact, Miller, Aubrey, Garko, Snyder, Goleski, Kouzmanoff, and Valdes all came from the 2003 draft; that’s impressive.

After I (finally) complete my major-league profiles, I’ll be concentrating on the prospects; this should start in a couple of weeks.