Baseball (Archive)

That’s what it looks like. GM Mark Shapiro wants to take care of the closer vacancy first, given the variables involved. There are really four closers out there of note, and Armando Benitez is without a doubt the best of the bunch. Troy Percival looks to be on the downside of his career, Bob Wickman has serious health issues, and Dustin Hermanson barely qualifies as closer. In contrast, Benitez only allowed 36 hits in almost 70 innings pitched. He posted a VORP of 33.1, behind only Brad Lidge, Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, B.J. Ryan, Joe Nathan, and Keith Foulke among late-inning relievers.

The good news is that the Indians are up against at most 3 other teams in serious bidding for Benitez. The Chicago Cubs, Florida Marlins, and San Francisco Giants are the only three teams I’ve seen that have been mentioned in conjunction with Benitez. The Cubs seem to be more enamored with Troy Percival, and the Marlins have a fallback in Guillermo Mota. The biggest competitor for Benitez may be the San Francisco Giants. According to Paul Hoynes, Shapiro may strike quickly, offering Benitez a contract while other clubs are taking care of other more pressing needs.

Benitez is, in my mind, the only closer in the market worth giving a multi-year deal to. If they don’t get him, probably plan B is to re-sign Bob Wickman to a one-year deal, assuming Percival signs with the Cubs. Contrary to what Roger Brown is spouting, there aren’t that many good closers out there, and Benitez is by far the best of this season’s crop.

Transactions

Re-signed RHRP Jake Robbins to a minor-league contract

Robbins will probably get an invite to Spring Training, but isn’t likely to break camp with the major-league club. He’s bullpen insurance.

According to Terry Pluto, the 2005 payroll is going to be around $45M. That sounds about right. This represents an increase in salaries of about $10M, all of which should go towards a starter and a closer. I think the best-case scenario involves the Indians signing Matt Clement and Armando Benitez with that $10M, and having enough left over to keep Ronnie Belliard around for another year. However, the realist (or maybe he’s a cynic?) in me leans more towards Derek Lowe, Dustin Hermanson, and no Belliard.

Also in the article, Pluto talks about the Indians not spending enough. I think what he’s missing is the fact that the younger players are going to get built-in raises in the next couple years. Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez will make around $700k combined next season. That’s going to change fairly quickly. Right now I see the payroll maxing out at about $60M, which will probably happen in 2006 or 2007, when most of the young core will be entering their arbitration years. Although I’d love for an owner to spend money out of his own pocket to get a winner out on the field faster, it’s not going to happen. Dick Jacobs never did it when he owned the team, and aside from one season (2001), Larry Dolan probably isn’t going to do it either. The encouraging thing is that the attendance increased as the season went on, so most of the fanbase (aside from the fans that only went to watch Vizquel) is still there. The economy is obviously much different in 2005 than it was when Jacobs Field opened, but if the team can contend this season, a $60M should be realistic. One (among many) advantages to being in the AL Central is that you probably won’t be outspent by that much. Oakland has to contend with the lowest payroll in its division year after year. The Indians, if they win, should be on a level economic playing field with everyone in the division.

Roster Issues

If Corey Smith was a 15th Round pick instead of a 1st Rounder, he’d be plying his wares in some other organization by now. But he was a 1st Round pick in 2000, and having done absolutely nothing to warrant prospect status, is making his 40-man roster spot even more tenuous by refusing to get reps in the outfield this winter. It’s time to cut ties, and hopefully this will happen before November 20, when prospects have to be protected on the 40-man roster. As it stands now, the roster is at 33. When the 60-day guys get added back, it’ll be 38. There’s three “no-brainers” that will be added to the roster in a couple weeks: Franklin Gutierrez, Fausto Carmona, and Jake Dittler. That means at least one player has to go, and this isn’t counting the 2-3 free agents that will be added to the fold in December or January. Three other candidates to be dropped are Cliff Bartosh, Brian Tallet, and Jason Stanford. Stanford isn’t going to pitch until at least late in the 2005 season, and he wasn’t much of a prospect to begin with. Tallet and Bartosh are marginal left-handers, and with Scott Sauerbeck signed for 2005, at least one will be expendable.

I’ve tweaked the shopping list a bit. Eric Milton is now in Tier 2, along with newly-added Jon Lieber. I’ve bumped Odalis Perez down to Tier 3.

Feel free to add your two cents.

AL Gold Glove

Now I wasn’t expecting Omar Vizquel to win his umpteenth Gold Glove this season, and he really didn’t deserve it. However, the fact that Derek Jeter won it really makes me wonder if the Gold Glove is that relevent anymore. If you go by most of the “mainstream” defensive measure (fielding percentage, range factor, zone rating), Jeter doesn’t finish first (or second, for that matter) in any of them. And Jeter doesn’t have the incumbent effect (Bret Boone, for example). So why was Jeter the winner?

1) He plays in New York
2) He just had the best defensive season of his career (though that still meant he was pretty average)
3) The absence of Alex Rodriguez from contention this season
4) A certain play against the Red Sox

Unfortunately, I don’t think those are in any particular order. One play does not in itself earn you a gold glove. Baseball more than other sport rewards players who are above all else consistent with their performances. I’m more a big believer in a body of work than making a certain sports show’s top plays. Defense statistics are light-years behind offensive measures, and no one has really produced a statistic that truly separates great defensive players from merely good ones. But nonetheless, here’s several mainstream and sabermetric statistics, and where AL shortstops placed.

Fielding Percentage
1. David Eckstein (.988)
2. Cristian Guzman (.983)
3. Omar Vizquel (.982)
4. Derek Jeter (.981)
5. Bobby Crosby (.975)

Range Factor (RF)
1. Miguel Tejada (5.00)
2. Carlos Guillen (4.97)
3. Bobby Crosby (4.96)
4. Jose Valentin (4.91)
5. Julio Lugo (4.78)

Zone Rating (ZR)
1. Jose Valentin (.878)
2. Bobby Crosby (.870)
3. Miguel Tejada (.861)
4. David Eckstein (.859)
5. Julio Lugo (.848)

Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA)
Miguel Tejada (18)
Carlos Guillen (16)
Jose Valentin (9)
Bobby Crosby (5)
Derek Jeter (2)
David Eckstein (2)
Julio Lugo (-2)
Omar Vizquel (-1)

A quick note of these statistics. Fielding percentage is simply the percent of times a player didn’t commit an error. Zone Rating is the percent of times a player fielded a ball hit into his “zone.” Range factor is (Putouts+Assists)/(PO+A+Errors). And Fielding Runs Above Average is Baseball Prospectus’ measure of how many runs a defensive player saved over the average player at his position. Like I said, these stats are far from being proven useful 100% of the time, but it sure beats arguing that “So-and-so is better than so-and-so because I said so!”

If I had to pick an AL Gold Glove, I’d probably go with Miguel Tejada. Although Tejada hasn’t exactly had a stellar defensive career, he’s still been better than Jeter, and he had by far a better season in the field. This leads me to wonder if Tejada might have had a better all-around season in this year than his 2002 MVP season.

AL Silver Slugger

The good news yesterday was that Victor Martinez shared the AL Silver Slugger Award for a catcher with Ivan Rodriguez. Martinez probably achieved a share of the award by all his RBIs; Rodriguez posted a better VORP (64.0 to 49.5) and EQA (.300 to .285) Travis Hafner, sadly, was beaten out at DH by Boston’s David Ortiz. He bested Ortiz in VORP (74.1 to 73.1) and EQA (.325 to .309). Still, Ortiz over Hafner isn’t that bad compared to 1995, when a Boston player stole the MVP from an Cleveland player because the media didn’t like the latter.

Free Agent Fever

Finally, onto the upcoming Free Agent season. I’ve posted what I think the Indians’ shopping list looks like to the left. Although the Indians would be more than happy signing Pedro Martinez or Carl Pavano, economics aren’t in the team’s favor. My top three (1st Tier) consists of Matt Clement, Brad Radke, and Jaret Wright, in that order. If the Indians sign any one of these three, I think they did well. The 2nd Tier guys have in my opinion a lot more question marks, but if the front office doesn’t overpay for one of them, I’ll be satisfied. The 3rd Tier (and everyone else) guys would be seen as a disappointment; I don’t really see any of them being good enough to be a third starter on a good team.

I try to stay away from rumors, especially since teams can’t talk to other teams’ free agents as of yet, but I’ve seen this several places. The White Sox are really going to go hard after Omar Vizquel, and will apparently offer him a two year, $8M contract. Frankly I have no clue why the White Sox would throw that much money at Vizquel, especially given his age, but I certainly won’t complain if GM Kenny Williams wants to do it.

Re-signed RHRP Bob Howry to a one-year contract, avoiding arbitration

I haven’t been able to glean the monetary details from the Web, but I’ll assume it’s around $1M, give or take a little. Pretty good signing, given Howry’s effectiveness and his possible versatility. With Riske, Betancourt, Miller, and Sauerbeck already reasonable shots to comprise next year’s bullpen, only the closer role is vacant. But like I said before, the Indians should go ahead and sign a bunch of NRIs to stick in Buffalo just in case.

Re-signed RHSP Scott Elarton to a one-year contract ($850k plus incentives)

It looks like Shapiro isn’t wasting any time taking care of the role players. Elarton at $850k is probably below market value, given the general appetite for starting pitching throughout the league. Elarton is most definitely still in the marginal category, but as a 5th starter, you’ll take your chances with him. Now that four-fifths of the rotation seem spoken for, Shapiro can go after a second-tier starter to man the third spot in the rotation. I’d really like to see the Indians go hard after Matt Clement; he’s probably one of the few pitchers out there that may be a better pitcher in 2005 than 2004. He hails from nearby Butler, Pa., only a two hours’ drive from Cleveland, so that would be a nice selling point.

First of all, congrats to the Boston Red Sox, the 2004 World Series Champions.

When the last out was recorded in Game 4, baseball’s 2004-2005 offseason officially began. Players who are eligible can declare free agency beginning today, and in a couple weeks clubs can begin to sign free agents from other teams. In November, clubs must decide who among their Rule 5 eligibles to protect on their 40-man roster. In December, clubs decide whether to offer arbitration to players on their roster who are eligible.

To help sort these things out, I’ve provided a graphical representation of the Tribe’s offseason in the left and right columns. The first thing you’ll see on the left-hand column is the 40-man roster. The number currently on the roster is in parenthesis. As free agents file, they will officially leave the roster. These players are noted by a “(FA)” next to their name. When they do file for free agency, I’ll place them under “Pending Free Agents.” The players currently on the 60-day Disabled List will be reinstated to the 40-man roster fairly soon, so this list should disappear until right before the 2005 season begins. The players on the 40-man roster with an “(A)” next to their name are eligible for arbitration. In late December, if they haven’t been signed, the Indians have to decide whether to offer them arbitration or non-tender them. If a player is non-tendered, they automatically become a free agent eligible to sign with any club. And finally, the “Pending m-Free Agents” refers to players in the organization who are minor-league free agents. These players can sign with any organization immediately.

In the right-hand column, there’s just a few things to explain. The “Signed for 2005” column is a holding area for players the Indians have signed for minor-league contracts, but haven’t been assigned to a minor-league roster. When the team starts releasing lists of players invited to Spring Training, some of the players will go there. Guys like Jeremy Sowers and Brian Barton are there just because they haven’t been assigned to a specific roster yet.

Minor-league players with a “(5)” next to their name are, to my estimation, eligible for the Rule 5 draft. I’ll get more into this in a month or so.

Player Reviews: Renewables, Part I

“Renewables” refers to players on the 40-man roster who are not yet eligible for arbitration (0-2 years of MLB service time). Some players I will cover when I do my prospect rankings later in the winter, so if I skip over someone, you’ll know why. Oh, by the way, “AE” is short for “Arbitration Eligible.” Take these dates with a grain of salt, for they assume that the player will from next year on spend the entire time on the 25-man roster. This obviously is not going to the case for a lot of players, but I’d rather err on the side of caution. For example, Fernando Cabrera will be arbitration eligible after the 2007 season if he spends the next three seasons with the major-league club. Ok, on with the reviews.

C Josh Bard – Age 26
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
2004 EQA: .377 (19 AB)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005 or 2006)

With the imminent departure of Tim Laker, Bard is finally the permanent backup catcher. That’s a good thing; Bard has some offensive ability, is a pretty good defender, and he’s a switch-hitter. Moreover, he’s good enough to allow Wedge to sit Victor Martinez more often in 2005. Some clubs have worse starting catchers than Bard, so when he’s eligible for arbitration in one or two years, should fetch something in a trade. Until then, the Indians should have the best catching tandem in baseball.

LHRP Cliff Bartosh – Age 25
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
2004 VORP: 3.5 (19.1 IP)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2006)

Bartosh is a LOOGY-in-training, and might eventually become a nice one, judging by his strikeout rates. He may become expendible with the addition of Scott Sauerbeck and the return of Brian Tallet, but both are coming back from injuries, and Bartosh has been healthy. If the Indians need a spot on their 40-man roster, he’s the first one to go. As with most bullpen arms, your guess is as good as mine as to what numbers he’ll put up next season, whoever he pitches with.

RHRP Rafael Betancourt – Age 29
2004 Salary: $305,200
2004 VORP: 14.5 (66.2 IP)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005 or 2006)

A nice find via minor-league free agency, Betancourt was the bullpen’s most consistent pitcher in 2004. The one note of caution is that while his strikeouts and walks have remained pretty stable compared to 2003, his hit ratio has gone up. With Raffy’s unconventional delivery, you could take this trend as AL hitters getting used to his short-armed delivery. Or you could just look at his other numbers and decide the hits are more indicative of luck (or lack thereof). Betancourt isn’t a pitcher you should be spending a lot of money on when he gets to arbitration, but the Indians will gladly take this while he’s only making six figures.

1B Ben Broussard – Age 28
2004 Salary: $324,100
2004 EQA: .289 (418 AB)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005)

He’s still probably a placeholder for Michael Aubrey, but you certainly can’t compain with his performance in 2004. Broussard might be overvalued right because of all the RBIs, leading to referrals of “clutchness,” but if it increases his trade value in a year or two, I’m all for it. He should again be a part-timer in 2005, sharing time with Josh Phelps. He still has to hit for more power, but everything else looks pretty good.

OF Coco Crisp – Age 24
2004 Salary: $319,400
2004 EQA: .266 (491 AB)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005)

Fourth outfielder, or Shannon Stewart Lite? That’s what I’ve been asking myself regarding Crisp lately. I think if Crisp can fully use his speed to his advantage, then he’s a full-time player. That means a better on-base percentage, and a better steal percentage. If he does those two things next season, he’s a keeper. Otherwise, he’ll get stuck in between, and hopefully the Indians won’t be the team that overpays for him. His power has been a nice revelation, but I think that he’ll be more of a doubles hitter than a home-run threat. If things stay the same in the outfield, he should get 500 at-bats next season. That should be enough to tell us what kind of player Coco is.

I’ll cover Andrew Brown, Fernando Cabrera, and Francisco Cruceta later in the winter, when I rank the organization’s top 20 prospects.

The last Indian to win a batting title has died. Avila was an integral part of the 1954 Indians, a team that still holds the American League record for winning percentage (.721). Avila was the first Mexican to have any real success in the major leagues. After returning home, he served in various facets of the Mexican government.

Baseball Library entry
Career Stats

These are some arguments I’ve heard as reasons for keeping Omar Vizquel around, and my counter-arguments. I’ll add to them as more arguments come my way.

Point: Omar Vizquel is a Future Hall of Famer, so the Indians should keep him.

Counterpoint: That Vizquel will probably get some votes in 2010-2012 is probably true. Will he get enough votes to get into the Hall of Fame right away? I doubt it. With quanifying defensive prowess being such a grey area, Vizquel doesn’t have an ironclad case other than his Gold Gloves. The biggest obstacle Vizquel will face is the changing of the MLB shortstop from a defensive specialist to an offensive weapon, beginning with Cal Ripken and continuing with players like Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Miguel Tejada.

There is the Ozzie Smith exception to getting into the Hall of Fame, but Smith generally is considered the best defensive shortstop ever. His career range factor (5.03) bests Vizquel’s (4.43) by a fairly large margin. Smith also had the benefit of playing in an era when he wasn’t as overshadowed by more offensive players at his position. Smith’s OPS+ (87) is better than Vizquel’s (85). I’d say in retrospect Vizquel’s career is more similar to fellow Venezuelan Dave Concepcion than Smith, and Concepcion hasn’t made the Hall.

I guess my point is that Vizquel is anything but a slam dunk to make the Hall of Fame. That being said, even if I could travel into the future and find out that Vizquel will make the HOF in 7-8 years, will that change the player he is now or next year? No. Here’s a sampling of what Hall of Fame (or Hall of Fame-caliber) shortstops did in their Age 38 season (OPS+ in parenthesis):

Luis Aparicio, 1972: .257/.299/.351 (89)
Dave Bancoft, 1928: .277/.331/.332 (66)
Ernie Banks, 1969: .253/.309/.416 (92)*
Barry Larkin, 2002: .245/.305/.367 (71)
Rabbit Maranville, 1930: .281/.344/.367 (74)
Pee Wee Reese, 1957: .224/.306/.248 (46)
Ozzie Smith, 1993: .288/.337/.356 (88)
Honus Wagner, 1912: .324/.395/.496 (145)
Bobby Wallace, 1912: .241/.332/.316 (89)

*As a first baseman

All of those listed above posted an OPS+ below their career average except for Wagner.

As far as the “You don’t let a Hall of Famer leave” argument is concerned, I’ll just say two words: Roberto Alomar.

Point: The Indians owe Vizquel for staying.

Counterpoint: The Indians haven’t exactly underpaid for Vizquel’s services in recent years. Vizquel’s most recent contract extension paid him $15M over the past two seasons. In today’s economic climate, that’s overpaying.

Point: If the Indians don’t bring back Vizquel, I’m not going back to the Jake again.

Counterpoint: That’s nice.

Point: Vizquel is being kicked to the curbed because of Dolan’s penny-pinching ways.

Counterpoint: This may be true to some extent, but I don’t think bringing Vizquel back would be such a good idea regardless of the Indians’ payroll, for reasons mentioned above. If the Indians had a $70M payroll and paid Vizquel $5M while Jhonny Peralta rotted in the minors, I’d be ticked off. Until Shapiro traded Peralta for a LOOGY in July, when I’d be really ticked off. Shapiro can’t control the teams’ payroll, but the fact that he has $45M instead of $70M to work with makes him less likely to keep indulgences like Vizquel around.

I just saw this gem from a “Hey Hoynsie!” column:

Q: I have been a loyal Indians fan for 46 years. From sitting in the obstructed view, straight-A student seats in the old stadium to club seats at the Jake, I have faithfully attended Tribe games.

But this latest deplorable decision not to sign Omar Vizquel is too much to bear . . . Not to sign him immediately and make it possible for this amazing ballplayer to retire as a Cleveland Indian when the time comes is unforgivable.

If Omar does not come back to Jacobs Field, then neither will this once loyal Indians fan. – Eva Webster, Solon.

A: Hey, Eva: I can’t tell you how many e-mails I’ve received just like yours. I can’t remember this kind of response when the Indians lost other big-name players such as Albert Belle, Robbie Alomar, Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez.

It shows you what kind of hold Vizquel has on the community. Maybe the front office will listen to you and others. Maybe owner Larry Dolan will expand the budget so that GM Mark Shapiro can improve the club and keep Vizquel. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

Frankly I don’t want to go over whether or not Peralta is better than Vizquel. I’m sure some of you who are reading this feels like Vizquel has another year or two left. And that’s fine.

But I would think we’ve seen enough of what goes on in baseball to not fall in love with a player to the point where the love of a player trumps the love of a team. That’s what happens when you’re a fan of a middle-market team; you’re going to see players leave who you don’t necessarily want to leave. However, with this Vizquel situation, I think it goes deeper than that; we’ve elevated Omar so much as a community that he’s become something that he’s not. If the Indians lose Vizquel, it might hurt the team (I don’t think it will), but not nearly as much Belle or Ramirez or Thome leaving hurt it. The fact that some fans are willing to give up their season tickets because their favorite player is leaving, despite the improvement of the team on the whole, despite the fact that Dolan is finally willing to spend more money, mystifies me. Yeah, it’s your money, and you can do with it what you want. But I just don’t get this mindset at all.

For the final time, please root for the name on the front of the jersey, not the back. That’s what I thought Indians fans have learned, especially in the past 7-8 seasons.

This is actually a really short list; Only four Indians (five counting the recently re-signed Bob Howry) have 2005 contracts. That’s pretty amazing.

3B Aaron Boone – Age 31
2003 Salary: $3.7M
2003 EQA: .281 for Cincinnati, .255 for New York (AL)
Contract Status: Signed through 2005 ($3.0M); team option for 2006 ($4.5M with various bonuses)

Now that Boone has been splashed all over sports shows to celebrate his 2003 ALCS-winning home run, let’s try to separate fact from mystique.

Before coming to the Yankees, Aaron Boone was a pretty nice player for the Cincinnati Reds; his EQA only dipped below average in 1999 (.256) and 2002 (.259). He’s a very good defensive third basemen, has some speed, and will hit for decent power. Assuming Boone is in playing shape by April and puts up career-average numbers, Boone for $3M is a pretty good investment. The side effect of Boone’s signing is that it will probably force Casey Blake to move to second base, a position he’s never played before. If Boone was completely healthy, I would think that he’d be a better fit at second than Blake, but turning the double play isn’t exactly the best thing for a player coming off two knee surgeries. Monetarily, signing Boone might actually save the Indians some money; Boone will probably make less than Belliard will make in arbitration, plus the team can trade Belly for something useful. Offensively, Boone/Blake is a bit better than Blake/Belliard, but not that much. Defensively, it might be a wash depending how Blake takes to second base; if Casey can impersonate Mark Bellhorn defensively, things should work out OK. I guess yet another side effect of the signing is that Jhonny Peralta can stay at short for the time being, pushing Brandon Phillips into a utility role and making John McDonald look for employment elsewhere.

As you can see there’s a lot of variables at work here, and I don’t really know how it’s going to work out. But that the Indians have actually started to spend money on relatively good players again is a step in the right direction as far as the rebuild is concerned. And that Boone chose the Indians because he believes in the future of the team is a nice shot in the arm for the organization’s stature among possible free agents this winter.

OF Matt Lawton – Age 32
2004 Salary: $7.25M
2004 EQA: .274 (.277/.366/.421)
Contract Status: Signed through 2005 (~$7.5M)

The Indians finally got a healthy Matt Lawton in 2004, and he posted numbers pretty much in line with his career averages. That he was paid $7.25M to do so is a lingering effect of Shapiro’s giddy offseason spending following the 2001 season. Still, he’s the most proven quantity the Indians have in the outfield right now, so unless the perfect salary swap presents itself this winter, Lawton should be playing either right or left field for the Indians next year. He’s an underrated leadoff hitter, and can still steal a base, so it’s not like he’s dead weight on the roster. Looking at his defensive numbers, he actually looks pretty average, believe it or not.

LHSP C.C. Sabathia – Age 23
2004 Salary $2.7M
2004 VORP: 40.2
Contract Status: Signed through 2005 ($4.5M); team option for 2006 ($7.0M)

First, the bad news: Sabathia didn’t pitch well at all after tweaking his bicep before the All-Star Break. His ERA after the ASB was 5.12.

Now, the good news. Sabathia’s stuff didn’t seem to suffer that much, and he pitched better in Saptember, posting a 3.71 ERA.

Looking at Sabathia’s 2004 as a whole, you don’t see much deviation in his peripheral numbers, like H/9 or SO/9, etc. He’s stayed healthy in his first four seasons, which is a minor miracle, and although the probability that he’ll become that top-notch starter has gone down, there isn’t much wrong with the pitcher is today. Yes, he needs to shed some weight, and his mechanics have always been a concern, but overall Sabathia is a very valuable starter that will probably be the team’s titular ace over the next two seasons.

LHRP Scott Sauerbeck – Age 32
2003 Salary: $1.556M
2003 VORP: 4.9 with Pittsburgh, -2.7 with Boston
Contract Status: Signed through 2005

Sauerbeck’s shoulder was a mess after arriving in Boston, so take the Boston stats with a grain of salt. I’ve gone over Sauerbeck just recently, so I’ll spare you any repetitious remark on the left-hander.