That Was Impressive

After CC Sabathia left the game in the fourth inning, the Indians used six relief pitchers. This was their collective line:

7.2 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 13 SO

Last year, there were maybe two guys I wanted to see in with the game on the line. This year, I don’t care who comes out of the right field bullpen; they all are pitching well.

Aaron Boone looks to have found his hitting stroke again; he had good at-bats tonight, and of course the payoff for him came in the 11th inning. I’ve been ripping on him all year, so I have give credit where it’s due.

Alex Cora better get used to pinch running and being a late-inning defensive replacement, because that’s all he’ll be doing for a while. Jhonny Peralta’s 9th inning home run off Brandon Fuentes (who by the way, has one of the weirdest deliveries I’ve seen) was a great piece of hitting.

After the game the Indians announced a couple transactions, neither of which are too shocking:

Reinstated RHSP Kevin Millwood from the 15-day Disabled List

Optioned RHP Jason Davis to Buffalo (AAA)

Davis needs regular innings, and he’s not going to get them pitching in long relief. I would guess Davis is still starting, although the Bisons might utilize a “tandem starting” system, seeing that they now have seven starters on their roster. I believe they did this the other night, as Kyle Denney pitched the first five innings, and then manager Marty Brown brought in Steve Watkins to start the sixth. Getting Millwood back is obviously a good thing. Kevin didn’t go out on a rehab assignment, so he might be on a pitch count tomorrow. Scott Elarton would probably be available if need be.

32-30

Unfortunately for the Indians, being two games above .500 means that they are still nine games out of first place. The Indians are still five games out of the wild card race, with three teams ahead of them.

But let’s not dwell on that right now.

The Indians pounded the Colorado Rockies tonight 11-2. The Rockies have won only four games on the road this year, so Cleveland did what they needed to do. And in the process, they got Jake Westbrook a well-deserved win. Westbrook is not a 2-9 pitcher, or even a 3-9 pitcher. As I’ve touched on recently, Westbrook has been just plain unlucky this year. You could say that this is Jake’s luck evening out, but all things being equal, Jake should be a .500 pitcher with an ERA hovering around 4.25 or so. Just compare his numbers from this year compared to last:

K/9
2004: 4.84
2005: 4.90

K/BB
2004: 1.90
2005: 1.88

H/9
2004: 8.68
2005: 8.71

GB/FB
2004: 2.72
2005: 4.00(!)

I guess this shows how volatile an extreme groundball pitcher can be.

The Indians offense looks to be getting healthy. And I’m not really saying this just based on the amount of runs they scored tonight; the approach at the plate is what makes me more excited. Even Aaron Boone, everyone’s favorite whipping boy, had some very good at-bats. What does that mean? The Indians have been pretty good the whole season at hitting for power; but they haven’t been getting on base, whether that be via the hit or the walk. The Indians currently rank dead-last in the AL in OBP at .311, and while a lot of that has to do with a very low batting average (.248), the team does a service to the opposing pitching by not working counts; it keeps the starter in games longer, and sets up the bullpen in the late innings.

Recently, though, I’ve noticed that the hitters aren’t chasing as many pitches out of the strike zone as they have been. Pitch recognition is extremely important to a hitter; by swinging at balls in the strike zone, the hitter has a much better chance of making solid contact. And the offense as a whole needs to get better in that department, even in the month of June, they still rank in the bottom half of the AL in most offensive categories. But I’m seeing some signs of progress.

Some random thoughts:

  • I had no idea that Matt Anderson, former high-velocity bust, was still in the majors. But I can say with certainty that Travis Hafner is glad he’s still around; I can’t recall when last someone hit a home run into the mezzanine deck in right field.
  • Grady Sizemore’s stats remind me of another center fielder who debuted at a young age: Rocco Baldelli. Rocco hit .289/.326/.416 his rookie year, and of course the only knock on him was his lack of walks. His next year, Baldelli improved his walk rate a bit and hit for more power (.280/.326/.436), so that’s a pretty good trend for the future.
  • A lot of people keep wondering whether Jhonny Peralta may someday have to shift over to third base. If I were running the Indians, I’d wait until it was absolutely necessary to move him there before I did so, judging by what shortstops are being paid. Jimmy Rollins, who is a pretty decent shortstop, just got a deal worth $40M over five years to remain in Philadelphia. I guess what I’m getting at is this: you keep Peralta, who can hit you 20-25 home runs a year at shortstop because he’s worth a heckuva lot more there than at third base. Now if Brandon Phillips can prove that he can hit at the major-league level, then you can start thinking about a position change for Peralta. But there should be a real good reason for him moving right on the defensive spectrum.
  • If the Indians are still out of it come July, they do have a lot of valuable trading chips. Number one would obviously be Kevin Millwood, but Bob Wickman may fetch some nice prospects as well. After all, he’s a “proven closer”, and there are a couple contenders (Atlanta, Texas, Boston, the Cubs, and Florida come to mind) who really need help in the bullpen. Now I’m not saying that Wickman will fetch a Sexson-esque prospect, but if there’s enough interest, the Indians could come away with a nice haul. Bob Howry, Scott Sauerbeck, and even Jose Hernandez also could be candidates for dealing. I’m not writing off this year by any stretch of the imagination, but the Indians could set themselves up for 2006 rather nicely if the White Sox and Twins continue to run away and hide from the Indians. There’s not much of a chance that Millwood would sign with the Indians before he reached free agency, and Bob Wickman isn’t the guy I want closing over the next few years. The Indians really need a corner bat, whether that be at first, third, or the outfield, and they could get a high-level prospect if someone is desparate enough at the deadline. I’ll get more into this if events warrant.

A 7-5 Road Trip

That’s pretty good considering three of the four teams on the trip were 10 games above .500 when the Indians played them. Depending on what happens in today’s game between the White Sox and Padres, the Indians may end the trip less than games back of Chicago, but more importantly, they can finish the day five games back of the wild card leader (currently Minnesota).

Update: The White Sox won in extra innings, so the Indians remain 10.5 games back

The constant on the West Coast swing was the pitching, but the hitting picked up when the Indians reached San Francisco. The Giants, who are in the midst of an awful stretch of baseball, gave up 22 runs to the Indians over the weekend, which I believe is the most runs scored by the Indians in a series this year. Grady Sizemore, Coco Crisp, and Ronnie Belliard provided much of the offensive punch on the road trip, and Aaron Boone and even Casey Blake got important hits during the 6-game stretch. With a season-long twelve game homestand upcoming, the Indians have a golden opportunity to run off some wins. First on the homsetand is the Colorado Rockies, owners of the worst record in baseball.

Other good news includes the return of Kevin Millwood, who should come off the DL before Thursday’s game against Colorado. Jason Davis will probably get optioned back to Buffalo, but with six starters already on the Bisons’ roster, it should be interesting to see how the logjam is resolved. But more importantly, the starting staff gets solidified with the addition of Millwood. Here’s a VORP update of the staff:

Sabathia 18.9
Lee 17.7
Millwood 16.4
Westbrook 1.3
Elarton 3.0

Riske 13.4
Rhodes 12.4
Betancourt 8.3
Howry 7.9
Miller 6.7
Wickman 6.2
Sauerbeck 2.2

That’s pretty good, especially for the bullpen, where the Indians don’t have any real weak links. As bad as the bullpen was last year, it’s been that good this year.

My trade target for the week is Austin Kearns, who was just optioned to AAA by the Reds. Kearns hasn’t been able to stay healthy throughout much of his young career, but the guy is a very talented player; this is a perfect time to buy low on him, now that Willy Mo Pena is back in the lineup for Cincinnati.

Here’s some of the recent minor-league moves:

Traded OF John Rodriguez (AAA) to the St. Louis Cardinals for C Javier Cardona (AA)

Rodriguez was caught in a numbers game with the demotion of Ryan Ludwick and the promotion of Jason Cooper. Rodriguez was hitting a fairly pedestrian .247/.323/.447 this year after a good campaign in 2004. Cardona is a minor-league vet (he’s 29 years old), and is a depth pickup

Promoted OF Jason Cooper to Buffalo (AAA) from Akron (AA)

Cooper, who I was ready to write off after a slow start this season, was hitting very well for the Aeros (.254/.359/.478) by the time he was called up.

Reinstated RHP Kyle Denney from the Disabled List (AAA)

I don’t know who’s out of the rotation, because the addition of Denney would mean six starters (Denney, Traber, Tallet, Guthrie, Cruceta, and Watkins) on the roster.

Released OF Darnell McDonald from Buffalo (AAA)

Released RHP Kyle Evans from Akron (AA)

The writing was on the wall for Evans, who had bounced around in the organization the last couple of years.

Promoted OF Brad Snyder to Akron (AA) from Kinston (A+)

The 2003 1st round pick reaches Akron pretty much on schedule. Snyder hasn’t had a great season thus far, but the peripherals are still decent. It should be interesting to see whether he or Franklin Gutierrez is the everyday center fielder for the Aeros.

Placed 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff on the Disabled List (A+)

Another injury for a top prospect. Kouz probably would have been promoted to Akron by now, he was hitting .346/.398/.616 for the K-Tribe.

Activated SS Brandon Pinckney from the Disabled List (A+)

Transactions – Non-Cleveland Version

In the past couple days, there have a couple moves involving ex-Indians or players that could have been Indians.

Obviously the one that piqued my interest was the trade involving Placido Polanco and Ugueth Urbina. Yeah, Detroit threw in a utility infielder, but to me that’s neither here nor there. Urbina is a better prize than Howry is now, but still the difference between Urbina and Howry isn’t that much. Detroit can stick Polanco at second base, and shift Omar Infante, who hasn’t been hitting this year, to the bench. Now obviously their bullpen gets weaker, especially considering Troy Percival’s health, but by the same stretch they improve their offense, and it’s a low-risk trade for them; both Urbina and Polanco are free agents at the end of the year, and the Tigers can still flip him for a prospect or two by the end of July if they remain out of the race.

I’m less disappointed that the Indians didn’t the trade now that Aaron Boone has started to hit. Granted, he’s still hitting below the Mendoza Line, but no longer are his at-bats futile attempts to hit the ball. Aaron is not chasing pitches down and away as much as he did before, which may pay dividends in the form of pitchers going to the inner half of the plate. Am I pronouncing him cured? Of course not; the damage he’s inflicted upon the lineup isn’t going to go away in the span of a week. But there’s finally hope. Now that Casey Blake has been relegated to bench duty and Boone is starting to resemble a major-league position player, the lineup sickens me less and less every day now.

Another interesting move involved former Indian Ryan Drese; the Rangers designated him a couple days ago, and the Washington Nationals have just claimed him on waivers. Last year Drese was one of the better starters in the American League, relying on his sinker and low walk rates to get hitters out. Sound familiar? While Jake Westbrook has fallen off a bit from last year, Drese’s numbers completely collapsed; he’s walked (24) more than he’s struck out (20), and his hit rate has been awful (96 in just about 70 innings pitched). So even though the Rangers signed him to a multi-year deal last offseason, they put him on waivers. Now there’s a chance Drese can still be a useful pitcher, but his tale is cautionary one; you can’t succeed forever without meeting minimum standards. Note that Jake Westbrook hasn’t pitched as badly as his 2-9 record might indicate; a 5.00 ERA in the American League will keep you employed, and his peripherals haven’t changed all that much versus last year. In fact, the only real difference is that Jake is giving up a greater amount of home runs; other than that, his ratios haven’t changed that much.

Finally, the Devil Rays have DFAd former Indian Josh Phelps. I was wrong about Ryan Ludwick, but Phelps has been relatively healthy, and even though he’s essentially a platoon DH, he’s hit .286/.341/.464 against left-handed pitching so far this year, so someone is going to claim him. The interesting side of this transaction was that the Devil Rays had DFA Phelps to make room for Reggie Taylor, he of the lifetime .233/.275/.386 line. Meanwhile Jonny Gomes continues to obliberate AAA pitching.

The Indians did make a roster move recently, though it’s not a huge one. They claimed RHP Jose Diaz off waivers from Tampa. Diaz is 25 years old, and had been pitching for the AA Montgomery Biscuits (what a great team name). Judging by his numbers, he has great stuff, but little idea where his pitches are going. It looks like the Indians may see some flaw in his mechanics, and with a couple roster spots to play with, took a chance on a live arm.

Breaking news: Milwaukee just flipped 2B Junior Spivey to the Nationals for RHP Tomo Ohka. The Brewers don’t need Spivey anymore, with Bill Hall playing well and Rickie Weeks knocking on the door, so Brewers GM Doug Melvin (who I think is one of the more underrated GMs in the game) got a fifth starter in Ohka for Spivey. Spivey will fill in at second base until Jose Vidro is off the Disabled List, and after that would probably become some sort of super-sub. I don’t believe Spivey can play shortstop, because that’s where the Nats really need an upgrade thanks to Cristian Guzman’s abysmal 2005 campaign

Update: Alex Cora’s in the lineup for the fourth straight game?! What the &^%^#$&^!

Just Another Extra-Inning Game

The AL Central went 5-0 against the NL West tonight, which is amazing considering that the games were played in NL parks.

Tonight’s game was giftwrapped by Khalil Greene; no doubt about it. But you have to at least mention Cliff Lee’s start, probably the best of his young career. He struck out 9 and walked two in his seven innings of work. The bullpen was excellent, and Wickman saved the game in his usual fashion. And, like usual, the Indians couldn’t put down a bunt when they needed one. This time, the culprit was Coco Crisp, who amazingly enough, got a bunt single earlier in the game. In situations where the bunt is absolutely called for, a guy like Coco has to put the ball on the ground.

Earlier in the day, the MLB Draft was held. For those who are unfamiliar with the process, the baseball draft is the complete opposite of the NFL’s hype-fest. Actually, this year the rules were changed so that teams have about 15-20 seconds to make their picks (obviously to increase fan interest). And the clubs make their picks via a conference line. The Indians had two extra picks in the first three rounds thanks to Omar Vizquel, and they mostly picked bats in the early going. Here’s a quick overview of the picks, but if you want more details, head over to Cleveland Indians Report.

OF Trevor Crowe: He’s a polished switch-hitter with good on-base skills. Isn’t that big, so maybe there’s a chance he could move to the infield. Looks like a leadoff hitter to me, although it should be interesting to see how his plate discipline holds up in professional baseball. Like Michael Aubrey two years ago, Crowe was probably college baseball’s best hitter when drafted. His ceiling is fairly low, but he should move quickly through the system.

OF John Drennen: A high school player with a good offensive game. He’s probably going to be a left-fielder as a pro, so you’re looking for power as he develops. A plus is his plate discipline, which combined with his power potential could make for an easier adjustment to professional baseball.

1B/LHP Stephen Head: The Indians drafted the Mississipi product as a first baseman, and unlike other players who get stuck at first base, Head is a good defender. His profile looks to me like Ben Broussard with a bit more power.

1B Nick Weglarz: This guy is huge; at 17 years old he’s listed at 6’3″ 205; who knows how big he’ll eventually get? Weglarz probably has the most “projectability” out of the first group of draftees, but at the same time his development into a major-league hitter might take some time. He’s a cold-weather kid (actually he’s from Canada), so that also may contribute to a slow move up the organizational ladder.

RHP Jensen Lewis: Jeremy Sowers’ teammate a year ago, Jensen is a right-handed finesse pitcher. He tops out in the low 90s, but has a good feel for his pitches, and can add or subtract from his pitches as needed. A low-ceiling pick, Lewis is probably a 4-5 starter at best in the majors, but the chances of flameout is pretty low.

Among the first five picks, I’d say Weglarz has the highest ceiling and Crowe is the closest to the majors. This draft was a pretty “safe” one for Scouting Director John Mirabelli; there isn’t the impact talent there was from the 2003 haul, although I like the overall picks compared to last year’s draft. But, we’ll have to wait 3-4 years to really know how this draft went.

The Silver Lining

During a weekend where the Indians dropped two of three to White Sox, a weekend where FOX gave us the wit and wisdom of Darrin Jackson during Saturday’s national telecast, and a weekend where Eddie Murray was fired, there are some good things going on with this team. CC Sabathia pitched well again, and although he doesn’t have the requisite win percentage to give him the well-worn monicker of “ace,” he’s been the team’s best and most consistent pitcher. But of course, he’s a slob and he wears his hat sideways….

Grady Sizemore, who avoids walks like the plague, had a very good series, raising his average from .257 to .274. But the center fielder has taken only 10 walks thus far, not exactly what you’re looking for in your leadoff hitter. His high strikeout-to-walk percentage is a red flag, especially given his propensity to swing at a lot of pitches. But otherwise, Sizemore has been as advertised; he’s a good defender in center, has pretty good speed, and shows the potential to hit for power.

Speaking of hitting for power, Coco Crisp has boosted his OPS to a respectable .828, higher (for the moment) than Manny Ramirez. He’s shown a surprising ability to hit home runs, something you wouldn’t believe seeing him for the first time. His cutoff of Paul Konerko’s single in the eighth inning was a fantastic play. He’s growing on me.

Although Alex Cora was brought in to provide some insurance for Jhonny Peralta, it doesn’t really appear that he’s needed. Peralta, who has been pretty decent in the field, ranks highly in most offensive categories among AL shortstops. Given that he’s up against guys like Miguel Tejada, Carlos Guillen, and Michael Young, that’s pretty impressive. Hopefully the Wayne Kirby treatment goes away quickly.

Aaron Boone showed a pulse today. He was hitting singles the other way on Saturday and Sunday, a first step towards getting some semblance of an idea at the plate. Now Casey Blake looks worse, although this type of competition isn’t one you want to see. Whoever had either on his or her HACKING MASS club has to be downright giddy right about now.

Offense hasn’t exactly been a problem for Buffalo, who lost on Sunday despite scoring twelve (12) runs. Jake Gautreau had five hits, including two doubles. Brandon Phillips has gotten his average up to .261 after a dreadful start, and Ernie Young is now hitting .328. Fernando Cabrera, the one Bison pitcher not to give up a run, lowered his ERA to 0.84; he’s ready.

In the upcoming series against the Padres, the Indians get to face the best pitcher you’ve never heard of: Jake Peavy. He’s allowed only 57 hits in his 76 innings, and may be one of the early frontrunners in the NL Cy Young race. The only thing that’s really missing from his resume is his win total; as Randy Johnson found out last year, voters like a large number of wins, no matter what your ERA says.

Eddie Murray Fired

Whenever someone like a hitting coach or pitching coach is fired, it’s really difficult to point to the exact cause of their removal. A hitting coach is probably better termed as an “approach coach;” most players have their own batting stances, but a hitting coach, in my mind, should be a problem-solver, a mentor, and a good observor. How good at these things were Eddie Murray? Having no access to the inner workings of the team, I have no clue.

“But!” you might say, “He was fired because the team wasn’t hitting!” While that may be partly true, you have to separate cause from effect. Eddie Murray cannot go up to the plate and swing the bat. He cannot make Ronnie Belliard take breaking balls in the dirt. He cannot only tell Ronnie not to do so; it’s ultimately up to the player to execute. But when players fail to execute, the hammer falls on the hitting coach, and despite past success, Murray was fired yesterday. The firing didn’t seem like a snap judgment; the offense was pretty decent by this season’s standards. So the issue becomes less about the team’s performance and more about Murray’s approach and communication with the players. I just can’t believe that he was let go because the team wasn’t hitting.

Anything I say is going to be speculation; I have no sources (real or imaginary) within the team, and since I have never been on or worked with a major-league club, I don’t know exactly how a typical hitting coach operates. All I can do is to guess the reason. And my guess is that Murray was let go because of a lack of communication between he and the players. Murray, by all accounts, is not the type of hitting coach to initiate conversations with players regarding their swing. His personality, which perhaps is the reason he’s in the Hall of Fame, could have been the reason why he’s out of a job today. This isn’t a knock Eddie’s ability to understand how to hit, but how he communicates his knowledge is just as important in today’s professional sports as the knowledge itself. It’s unfortunate, but true.

Blaming the hitting coach for the team’s stuggles at the plate is a conveinient and safe course of action. But at some point, you have to point at least some of the blame at the players or the person who procured them. The best hitting coach in the world could not make the Buffalo Bisons lead the American League in hitting. If you have inferior offensive talent, then there’s only so much you can do as a coach. When the top two hitters in the order are getting on base less than thirty percent of the time, you won’t be scoring many runs. When you have a hitter whose OPS is less than Ryan Ludwick’s slugging percentage, then your offense will struggle.

On a side note, I propose that if the Indians insist on having a hitter who hits like a pitching in the lineup, then at the very least, that hitter should “help his own cause” like a pitcher. If someone’s on base and there are less than two outs, he bunts. After the fifth inning or so, he should be lifted for a pinch hitter (double switch optional).

Which is why I’m proposing a trade that would help this club immensely. It’s with the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies Get:

RHP Bob Howry
IF Jose Hernandez

The Indians Get:

2B/3B Placido Polanco

All of the players involved in this proposed trade are free agents at the end of the year. Polanco makes more than Howry and Hernandez combined, but not too much. The Phillies are looking for a “proven” setup man, and Howry fits that bill. The Indians need a competent third baseman and a top-of-the-order hitter, and Polanco fits that bill. If the Indians are out of the race by July, they could easily flip Polanco to another team for a prospect. David Riske would replace Howry in the setup role, and Fernando Cabrera, who’s been dominating AAA hitters, could be brought up to fill Riske’s previous role. Aaron Boone would get moved to the bench, or he could agree to accept an assignment to Buffalo, in which case Mike Kinkade would be brought up to fill Jose Hernandez’s role.

Essentially, both teams would get what they want without trading a prospect to do so. Will it happen? Probably not, because oftentimes the trades that seem to make the most sense don’t materialize because of other unknown circumstances.

Davis Up, Tallet Down

Recalled RHP Jason Davis from Buffalo (AAA)
Optioned LHP Brian Tallet to Buffalo (AAA)

What does a guy have to do to get a shot around here? Granted, Brian hadn’t pitched in ten days, but his numbers for the Bisons were good enough to warrant at least a start. I had thought that Tallet would make his start today, then get shipped back down to Buffalo in favor of Davis, who would take over as the long man, at least until Kevin Millwood came off the Disabled List. I guess not.

I’d like to mention site a friend from the ESPN days has started: it’s called the Indians Clubhouse, and it’s a forum without the…problems..that the ESPN forums have.

Also check out Coco Crisp and Ben Broussard singing on “Oh Say Can You Sing?” Former Indians Omar Vizquel and Sean Casey also appear on the CD, and a portion of the proceeds goes to charity.

Finally, I’d like to share an e-mail I received from Rob:

Some schedule analysis:
I divided the teams that we, the Twins and the WSox play into 4 levels of competitiveness:

(1) Tough [Bos, Balt, LAA, LAD]
(2) Good [Tor, NYY, TX, AZ, SD]
(3) Fair [Det, Oak, Mil, Chi C, SF]
(4) Poor [KC, TB, Sea, Cin, Col]

Didn’t rate White Sox, Twins, Indians as we play each other equal amounts.[Note that Indians are 3-3 vs Twins and 2-4 vs WS so far. Twins are 0-5 vs WS which is a big contributor to the WS current lead]. You may disagree with some of these placements but you get the idea.

Then I evaluated the difficulty of the schedule to-date (through 5/11) and going forward (leaving out games among the 3 above). Here are the results [# games vs (1), # games vs (2), …]:

to-date: CWS [0, 3, 8, 11] Minn [6, 0, 5, 11] Tribe [5, 3, 6, 8]
Clearly the CWS have had the easiest schedule; although this isn’t a big enough difference to totally account for the current standings, but maybe things aren’t quite as bad as they appear!!

going forward:
rest of May – CWS [10, 6, 3, 0] Minn [0, 9, 3, 0] Tribe [3, 3, 3, 3]
June – CWS [4, 6, 6, 6] Minn [3, 9, 9, 3] Tribe [7, 6, 3, 6]
July – CWS [7, 0, 9, 6] Minn [13, 3, 4, 7] Tribe [3, 4, 6, 11]
August – CWS [4, 12, 0, 6] Minn [3, 3, 7, 10] Tribe [3, 9, 6, 10]
Sept/Oct – CWS [3, 0, 8, 6 ] Minn [0, 3, 9, 3] Tribe [0,0, 6, 10]

TOTAL -CWS [28, 24, 26, 24] Minn [19, 27, 32, 23] Tribe [16, 22, 24, 40]

It looks like the CWS have the toughest remaining schedule, then Minn and then the Tribe!
Some of this is driven by who the interleague opponents are (and how I rated them!). The CWS play the Cubs (6 times), COL, SD, AZ, LAD (3 times each). Twins play Mil (6 times), SF, SD, AZ, LAD (3 each). Tribe plays Cin (6 times), SF, SD, AZ, COL (3 each). So the Tribe gets those 6 games against CIN (which I rated the lowest) and 0 games against LAD (rated highest). If we can’t gain some serious ground with this schedule advantage, then we’re not as good as everybody hoped we would be! Of course, we have to win a fair share of our games with CWS and Twins.
First test of this starts now as the CWS have a tough remainder of May. Then June is a test for the Tribe. If we are in this thing at the end of June, then we have a real shot. July is Minnesota’s test. Etc.

Thanks for all the work, Rob (note he sent the e-mail on May 11th, so there were some changes between then and now). Anyway,this shows that if the Indians can hang around through the end of June, the road gets easier. But right now, the remainder of this 12-game road is critical, since the Indians are the ones who have the catching up to do. Losing to El Duque last night really hurt, because the other two pitchers faced in the series are Chicago’s best: Jon Garland and Mark Buerhle.

Ryan Ludwick Clears Waivers

Outrighted OF Ryan Ludwick to Buffalo (AAA)

I have to admit I was a bit shocked to hear no one put in a claim for Ludwick. A right-handed outfielder with power, who could have fit on at least five teams’ bench, unclaimed? But I’m not complaining a bit; Ludwick will get to play every day in Buffalo, although it should be interesting to see who loses PT as a result. By the way, Ludwick couldn’t have refused the assignment, as this is his first outrighting.

A bit of a postcript to my comments about the offense. With the return of Coco Crisp and the return of Victor Martinez’s bat, there’s a good chance that the Indians won’t be the worst offensive team in the AL by the end of the season (heck, they have higher OPSs than four other AL clubs right now). But I point to the Casey Blake contract and his subsequent move to the outfield as a lack of perspective on Shapiro’s part. Blake is nice story, and he’s a pretty solid player given the right role. But in right field? Even if Blake returns to his career averages, that still makes him a below-average right fielder. I certainly can’t blame him for Aaron Boone’s nosedive, though Boone’s signing was what precipitated Blake moving to the outfield in the first place.

Building a Mansion with Plywood

That’s what trying to construct a lineup is like these days for manager Eric Wedge.

Now generally you have one of two opinions on the cause of the Indians’ offensive malaise:

(a) It’s Wedge’s fault because he’s the one who’s putting the lineup together
(b) The players are the cause, because they aren’t hitting.

I’m of the opinion that managers generally have less to do with the outcome of games than generally thought. Because baseball is at its heart a one-on-one matchup, there is little a coach or manager can do except to fix a player’s mechanics, whether they are swinging or throwing. Finding a lineup, especially with the addition of several new players, is usually a gradual process, and by the end of the first month, you pretty much know where everyone’s going to hit. But what happens if virtually everyone in the lineup can’t hit? Well, you do what Wedge has been doing for the first two months and tinker. In many respects the lineup difficulties parallel what happened with the bullpen last year; there’s only so much you can do when pretty much everyone sucks. The order matters less when you don’t have the players to work with.

This year’s lineup has very few obvious fits. Travis Hafner has the team’s highest OBP, but you obviously don’t want him leading off. Grady Sizemore, who is the team’s stolen base leader, hasn’t been drawing walks. And Coco Crisp has been injured. In the second hole, Casey Blake is one of the most patient hitters on the team, a good attribute for your second hitter to have, but Blake hasn’t been, you know, getting hits. Add in regressions from Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, the complete absence of Juan Gonzalez, and the absolute suck of Aaron Boone, and you have a group of offensive players that wouldn’t score no matter how you placed them.

Now of course one argument for the importance of lineup construction states that because players are creatures of habit, sticking with one lineup for an appreciable amount of time, would result in the offense scoring more runs. I really don’t buy that argument; although some players get pitched differently based on who the next hitter is, you first have to have someone worth pitching around. Other than Travis Hafner at times, who would you tread carefully against on this team? Jody Gerut has the team’s highest OPS (.894), and that’s based on 43 at-bats. There are exactly two players slugging above .500. There are two players with an OBP above .350. Grady Sizemore is miscast right now as the team’s leadoff hitter, but who else is there? At some point you have to leave the abstract realm of form and get into the dirty world of function; it is there you will see that order is not the reason for the lack of runs; it’s the lack of production by the component parts.

It’s not all bad news for the team, though; they have started to hit better, today’s performance notwithstanding (They posted a .749 OPS in May, good for 7th in the league). Exorcising Casey Blake and eventually (please?) Aaron Boone from the everyday lineup should have some positive effect on the overall offense. Juan Gonzalez was supposed to have helped, but that isn’t happening. I still think Shapiro has to go out and get some help, because I don’t see much in the way of internal options. He grossly miscalculated the dropoff on the offensive side, and now that the two month barrier has been passed, his task to is to strengthen the, because it’s pretty difficult winning games when the offense scores four runs a game.