Ryan

If you watched any of the previous series with Boston, you know how hot the Red Sox hitters have been (they recenetly pasted Philly pitching to the tune of 27 runs in three games). That makes what Kevin Millwood did all the more amazing. Kevin got out of a first inning jam, and was never seriously in trouble again. He pitched inside to left-handers like David Ortiz, got Manny Ramirez on high fastballs and outside curves, and really kept the entire lineup off balance during his six innings of work. If you take into consideration the opposition, Millwood’s outing probably rates as the best Indian pitching performance of the year.

The Red Sox essentially gave the Indians five runs through shoddy defense. The Indians scored three runs thanks to an absolutely bonehead error by Mark Bellhorn, and two thanks to Trot Nixon’s deflection of a Grady Sizemore fly ball over the short right field fence. You could say the Indians didn’t need all those runs, but it did allow the back end of the bullpen to get some rest, and made the last three innings relatively stress-free.

Travis Hafner is making his case for the All-Star team. He hit his 12th home run of the season tonight, and while his numbers aren’t as good as they were in 2004, I’d have to think his .293/.397/.526 line would be good enough in a year with a weak class of AL 1B/DHs. The other two possibles in my mind are Cliff Lee and Bob Wickman, although I’d much rather see Hafner or Lee than Wickman be the lone Indians representative.

Kyle Denney is apparently fine but still in a Buffalo hospital. He suffered a cerebral contusion (a bruise to the brain), a fracture of one his skull bones, and a ruptured eardrum. Those are obviously quite serious injuries, although the good news is that he never lost consciousness after the injury. Best of luck to him as he recovers.

Thanks for the feedback on the young arms; the second half of the top 20 should be up some time tomorrow.

I was straightening some things out to help the readability of the blog, and one thing lead to another. Feel free to post your thoughts here. Do you like the new look, or should I have kept the old one?

This seems to be a great time to review my prospect rankings, given that the first half of the season is over for many of the leagues, and also because there I don’t really want to get into what happened last Wednesday.

Just a quick glimpse into where I’m coming from in putting together this list. I lean towards results rather than projectability, but I will in some cases defer to the player’s upside. I also like prospects at AA or AAA, as there’s less that can go wrong between Akron and Cleveland versus Burlington and Cleveland. With that said, on with the mindless speculation!

(1) RHP Adam Miller
Acquired: 2003 Draft (Sandwich Round)
Born: 11-26-1984
2005 Stats: N/A
Previous Ranking: #1
Trend: Level
ETA: 2007

I’m keeping Miller at the top of the list because there really isn’t anyone else I feel is better than him, and even though he just made his first start of the year. Miller had been sidelined until a couple days ago because of an elbow strain in Spring Training. If Miller is healthy, he’s one of the better pitching prospects in baseball, with a tremendous fastball and slider combination. Check out his numbers in Lake County and Kinston last year and you’ll see what I mean. A combination of low hit rates, at least decent walk rates, and high strikeout rates is the trifecta as far as young pitchers are concerned, and Miller so far in his professional career has all three. If he stays healthy, he could be a really good one.

(2) RHP Fernando Cabrera
Acquired: 1999 Draft (10th Round)
Born: 11-16-1981
2005 Stats (AAA): 39.1 IP, 0.92 ERA, 26 H, 55 SO, 7 BB
Previous Ranking: #7
Trend: Up
ETA: Now

You know that “trifecta” I was talking about? Cabrera has it also. Cabrera may be the best relief pitcher prospect in the minors right now, and he’s pretty much ready for the big leagues whenever the Indians have a need in the bullpen. Fernando was originally a starter in the minors, but over the past couple of years have been eased into a relief role (although I believe the Indians thought he was going to be a reliever before that, but they get Cabrera as a starter in order to get him some innings). Just recently, Cabrera was moved into the closer’s role in Buffalo, which may be a sign that he’s being groomed as a future closer with the Indians. I can see him taking over Bob Howry’s role next year, and then moving into the closer’s role a year or two down the road. Cabrera has been chosen for the Futures Game next month as part of the World team.

(3) C/1B Ryan Garko
Acquired: 2003 Draft (3rd Round)
Born: 1-21-1981
2005 Stats (AAA): 240 AB, .271/.342/.500, 12 2B, 13 HR, 47 SO, 21 BB
Previous Ranking: #4
Trend: Level
ETA: September

Garko has been a pleasant surprise since he joined the organization, and he hasn’t stopped hitting. Garko probably won’t be a full-time catcher anytime soon, although he can probably hit enough to stick as a C/1B/DH like a couple other players have done. I made mention a couple days ago that Ryan could be a cheap upgrade over Ben Broussard if the Indians decide to deal him, or he can be a nice right-handed bat off the bench. Either way, I think he’s with the Indians next season. Garko also is going to appear in the Futures Game as part of the US team.

(4) LHP Jeremy Sowers
Acquired: 2004 Draft (1st Round)
Born:
2005 Stats (A+): 71.1 IP, 2.78 ERA, 60 H, 75 SO, 19 BB
Previous Ranking: #10
Trend: Up
ETA: 2006

Sowers has progressed pretty much on schedule, deserving his recent promotion to Akron. The left-hander has good off-speed pitches (especially his curve), and has a good idea how to use them. His fastball tops out in the high 80s, but with his curve in the low-to-mid 70s, his top-end speed shouldn’t be much of an issue. If the Indians really needed him this year, he could probably pitch in September, but I doubt we’ll see Jeremy in the majors until at least 2006, mainly because of 40-man roster considerations.

(5) RHP JD Martin
Acquired: 2001 Draft (Sandwich)
Born: 1-2-1983
2005 Stats (AA): 51.2 IP, 2.44 ERA, 39 H, 61 SO, 7 BB
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trend: Up
ETA: Late 2006

Martin has become somewhat of a revelation; before this season, his numbers were very pedestrian for a pitcher picked that high in the draft. Then late in 2004, he starting upping his strikeout rates, and carried that trend over to this year. He’s been sidetracked recently with a trip to the DL, but he returned last week pitching as well as he had prior to his arm injury. Also notice the low walk totals, which indicates that his increased strikeout totals haven’t come at the expense of control. Three of the four 2001 bonus babies are pitching well in Akron this year, but Martin is the best of the bunch right now.

(6) 1B Michael Aubrey
Acquired: 2003 Draft (1st Round)
Born: 4-15-1982
2005 Stats (AA): 106 AB, .283/.336/.462, 5 2B, 4 HR, 18 SO, 7 BB
Trend: Down
ETA: Late 2006

I didn’t bump Aubrey down on this list because of his performance on the field. The problem with him has been that can’t seem to get on the field in the first place. Aubrey is still hitting well enough, but the injury concerns are starting to mount; it would be one thing if one major injury was what was holding Michael back, but it seems that he’s gotten a lot of pesky strains and pulls, which doesn’t bode well for his long-term durability. I still love his bat and his glove, but has to stay healthy to stay on schedule.

(7) OF Brad Snyder
Acquired: 2003 Draft (1st Round)
Born: 5-25-1982
2005 Stats (A+): 209 AB, .278/.365/.431, 10 2B, 6 HR, 64 SO, 24 BB
Trend: Level
ETA: 2007

Snyder isn’t having a breakout 2005, but he’s met expectations, earning a promotion to Akron. Beyond the numbers you see above, Snyder has been very good in the stolen bases department; he’s only been caught once in 13 attempts. He’s still seen as a center fielder, although having Grady Sizemore ahead of him may block his progress in this organization. But there aren’t too many high-level outfield prospects in the organization, and Franklin Gutierrez has had an awful time in Akron, so he might get a chance if there’s some attrition among the current major-league crop of outfielders. Right now, the numbers don’t really wow me, but he has some time on his side.

(8) 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
Acquired: 2003 Draft (6th Round)
Born: 7-25-1981
2005 Stats (A+): 185 AB, .348/.398/.616, 17 2B, 9 HR, 40 SO, 14 BB
Trend: Up
ETA: 2007

The only real knock on Kouzmanoff is his age, and it really wasn’t his fault that he had to pound Carolina League pitching for half the year before he got a promotion to Akron. The strikeouts are something to keep an eye on, as there’s a big jump in pitchers’ control from A+ to AA. Although the Indians might have caught lightning in a bottle with Jake Gautreau, Kouzmanoff is probably the best pure third base prospect in the organization. He could be ready by late 2006 if everything goes right.

(9) OF Franklin Gutierrez
Acquired: Trade, 2004
Born: 2-21-1983
2005 Stats: 211 AB, .227/.303/.355, 11 2B, 4 HR, 48 SO, 21 BB
Trend: Down
ETA: 2007

Wha’ happened? Those are ugly numbers, especially for someone who’s repeating AA. Gutierrez has had some nagging injuries over the past year or so, but I don’t think you can just explain away this poor a showing with just injuries. The drop in power is especially a concern given the numbers he’s put up in the past couple years. Heck, in Akron last year he slugged .466 at age 21. Perhaps Gutierrez is placing too much pressure on himself; recently he was moved out of the cleanup spot in order to help him relax more.

(10) RHP Fausto Carmona
Acquired: Free Agent, 2000
Born: 12-7-83
2005 Stats: 90.2 IP, 4.07 ERA, 100 H, 57 SO, 20 BB
Trend: Down
ETA: 2007

The problem for Carmona is that merely throwing strikes isn’t going to get AA hitters out. He’s giving up way too many hits and striking out too few in my opinion. He was recently promoted to Buffalo, but it appears it’s mainly to fill in for Chad Zerbe, who went on the DL. With good prospects coming in behind him, Carmona may get squeezed out of a rotation spot before too long.

When the Indians lose a game like they did last night, I try to stay away from the keyboard for a bit, just to prevent myself from typing something stupid. And also, it’s a lot better to think objectively about a game after you’ve had a while to cool off.

The Indians’ hitters did as good a job against a pitcher as I’ve seen this. Team looking for an advantage on David Wells should just watch what Tribe hitters did in last night’s game. Almost no at-bats were given way, the hitters did not bite often on Wells when he nibbled just off the plate, and when they did, they just fouled off the pitch. They didn’t try to do too much with their opportunities, settling for singles instead of trying to gamble for a homer. They did not let Wells have an easy inning. The result was that Wells was done after the fifth inning, which exposed the juicy underbelly of Boston’s bullpen to Indian hitters in the mid-to-late innings of the game.

If only CC Sabathia had put forth a mildly competent pitching performance.

Boston’s lineup is difficult in that not only do most of the hitters make you work for each out, they make adjustments from at-bat to at-bat and make you pay for throwing the same pitch in a similar situation. Unfortunately, Sabathia did not simply change his method, but tried to throw his fastball with more velocity instead. I guess that’s an easy temptation for a pitcher with great stuff, but it often leads to disaster when you face smart hitters. Now some hits given up by him were not entirely his fault; Manny Ramirez hit his homerun off an ankle-high offering, which maybe three or four players in baseball could have hit. Ramirez’s broken-bat double in the fifth was not Sabathia’s fault at all, but the the fastball down the runway to Jason Varitek was. It’s not the runs I get concerned about, because sometimes a pitcher just gets plain unlucky; it’s the approach that Sabathia showed that concerned me. Having great stuff is one thing, but the great pitchers know how to use it to their advantage. Sabathia has “pitched” many times this season, but last night, he just “threw”.

It’s easy to say that replacing Eddie Murray with Derek Shelton has been the reason why the Indians are hitting again. The only thing that we know is that they are hitting better; I’ll leave the guessing to someone else. Just like with pitching, approach matters with hitters, and the Indians are approaching their at-bats like they did a year ago. Travis Hafner, who was perhaps the one hitter in the lineup that has been consistent with his approach, put together a simply amazing at-bat against Alan Embree last night, culminating with a home run to deep center field. Victor Martinez followed with a home run to left field off of closer Keith Foulke, which is also a good sign. While Martinez hasn’t gotten his average up yet, he’s walking a lot more than he did early in the season. His OBP is now above .300, and he’s starting to hit for power from the left side of the plate. He’s hitting .271/.375/.475 during the month of June. While you can write that off as a small sample size, look at his body of work in the minors and majors and you can reasonably say that he should be able to keep that line up through the rest of this season.

About this time last year, Ben Broussard went through a slump much like he’s doing now. I think it’s safe to say that Broussard looks like a really streaky hitter, and the peaks aren’t really worth the valley. I wouldn’t be surprise to see Ben end up with decent numbers, but I think if the Indians can find an upgrade at first base after the season, they should do it. Although the AL first baseman have been REALLY bad this year, that shouldn’t be an excuse to give Broussard a long-term deal or a large arbitration payday.

I think the Indians have figured out that Casey Blake isn’t a player you want as your everyday right fielder, and to their credit they’re making him a sort of utility player. Heck, for Casey’s long-term future in major-league baseball, this shift might be best for him. He’s shown he can play the outfield well, and of course he can play both third and first base. Unfortunately for the Indians, they signed that type of player last offseason; Jose Hernandez. With Jake Gautreau worthy of a look and Aaron Boone sticking around another year thanks to the vested option, Blake might be trade bait in the offseason if they can find someone who really wants him. Speaking of Gautreau, he’s now hitting .296/.343/.556 with 14 HR and 19 2B in Buffalo. He can probably play at second base as well as third, so I think he’s worth a roster spot next year, and he should certainly be placed on the 40-man roster next November.

Also hitting well is Ryan Garko (.271/.344/.504), who seems to have recovered from a slow start in frigid Buffalo. He’s another player that’s a good fit in at least as a right-handed platoon for Ben Broussard (if he’s still here). He might be a cheap upgrade as an everyday first baseman, or could even fill in at catcher for a couple weeks at a time.

While the overall hitting prospects have left a lot to be desired this year, the Indians system has quite a bit of depth as far as pitchers are concerned. You have a couple of older pitching prospects at Buffalo (Tallet, Traber, Davis) who could come up and enter the major-league rotation if needed, a good young rotation (Dittler, Denham, Martin, Carmona) in Akron, and guys in Kinston (Sowers, Bay) who would be in Akron already if not for a logjam in AA. Then of course you have Adam Miller and Scott Lewis, both highly-regarded pitching prospects working their way back from injuries, some interesting reliever prospects (Fernando Cabrera, Edward Mujica, and even Jose Diaz), and even breakout prospects like Tony Sipp. I can’t remember when last the Indians had a pitching stable this deep. This is something to remember if the Indians are in a position to add some players in late July; they have the pitching depth and the pitching prospects to match just about any other organization.

Be sure to check out Alex’s interview with Indians draft pick Joseph Hunter. The Hardball Times has an article on last Sunday’s game against Arizona

Yesterday’s post was my way of putting everything in perspective. If you accept that Bob Wickman is the best closer in the league, then you’ll be that much more disappointed when he regresses towards the mean. That being said, you have to at some point just enjoy this winning wave until it finally crashes upon shore, as long as you understand that it happens. The opposite is true as well; revisit this column for a great example of sports myopia.

I suppose it is a staple of baseball fans to get really high during the winning streaks and irate and depressed during the down stretches. The body of work is important in evaluating anything in baseball, and right now the Indians are 37-30. As Bill Parcells might say, you are what you are, but you can take some things from recent events as signs of future events; how you got there can tell you where you are going.

The offense has been much better lately. The Indians’ line in June is .262/.318/.460, a drastic improvement over what they did in April (.228/.293/.376). Aaron Boone, Casey Blake, and Victor Martinez are hitting much better lately, although Ben Broussard seems to have entered one of his cold streaks. That the club has patched up most of their offensive holes is a big reason why the team has one nine straight. The team could probably use a veteren bat to hit behind Hafner in the order, but for now, “one through nine” has to suffice.

The pitching has maintained its excellence, which is the biggest reason for the streak. The rotation’s fourth and fifth starters pitched well against a good offensive team this weekend, and the staff’s overall ERA now stands at 3.50, best in the majors. What’s even more impressive is the opposition’s OPS, which is .674, more than twenty points lower than the second place staff. Kevin Millwood is now healthy, and the bullpen is deep and good. When you don’t have a weak link on your pitching staff, you force the other team’s pitchers to beat you.

That being said, the pitchers are going to get a real test in the next two weeks; the Indians face some of the best offenses in baseball before the All-Star Break. Boston, who the Indians next face, rank second in the AL in runs scored, and Baltimore (June 30, July 1-2) ranks fourth. Cincinnati, for all their pitching problems, can still put runs on the board (2nd in the NL in runs scored). The good news for the Indians is none of the teams have that great of pitching staffs. The Indians miss Boston’s best starter, Matt Clement in the upcoming series, so that’s a big break. But watch out for David Wells, tomorrow’s starter; he’s shut down St. Louis and Cincinnati in his past two starts, allowing only 5 hits in his past 15 innings pitched. Of course, he has emotional ties with the Indians fans, so I’m sure he’ll get a warm welcome as he warms up in the bullpen.

Tonight was beach night at the Jake, and the Indians kicked sand in the face of Arizona pitchers all night.

The offense started with…what else?…patience at the plate. The Indians made starter Brad Halsey go deep into counts, with Travis Hafner’s at-bat in the third inning a great example of what can happen when you make a pitcher throw a pitch in your zone. If Hafner had tried to pull Halsey’s fastball, he probably pops it up, but he went with the pitch, lined it into the left field gap, and the run parade commenced. Casey Blake, while he’s now just above the Mendoza Line, hasn’t lost his power; he hit his 9th of the season tonight, surpassing Ronnie Belliard for the team lead.

The team’s two youngest players – Grady Sizemore and Jhonny Peralta – hit back-to-back home runs in that third inning. Peralta, who has done nothing but hit when he’s played, now is slugging .526, which would place him second only to Miguel Tejada among AL shortstops if he had enough at-bats to qualify. Sizemore is now hitting .308/.349/.483, and his OPS is second only to Johnny Damon among AL center fielders. The infusion of young talent is vital to the continued success of a team like the Indians for obvious reasons; they can give the Indians a huge advantage over other clubs who can’t develop/acquire these players themselves. The Indians can’t go out on the market to sign a shortstop with power or a 4-tool center fielder, so they have to develop them in-house.

Cliff Lee wasn’t that great, but he stuck around five innings to get his 8th win of the season. Although the bullpen was used again, only two pitchers (Riske and Miller) were required to finish the game, so Wickman, Rhodes and Howry all should be able to go on Saturday and Sunday if need be.

Unfortunately for the Indians, every team ahead of them in the divisional and wild card races won. On a related note, have you noticed the AL’s record against the NL this season? Only two AL clubs (Tampa Bay and Oakland) have losing records against the National League. The AL Central is collectively 38-22 against the NL.

While no Cleveland Indian has 10 home runs thus far, SIX Buffalo Bisons have 10 or more home runs in three more games played. Included among the six are Brandon Phillips, Ryan Garko, and Jake Gautreau, all of which are still considered prospects. But the best hitter on the team has been minor-league vet Ernie Young, who is hitting .306/.404/.568 for the year. And for those interested, the Bisons’ home park is rated a pitchers’ park by Baseball America.

The Indians face Brandon Webb, one of the game’s best young pitchers tomorrow. Webb has baseball’s highest GB/FB ratio at 4.21; Jake Westbrook is second. What Webb does that Westbrook doesn’t do is strike batters out as well; he combines that high ground ball ratio with a fine 7.18 K/9. That’s a great combination to have, especially if you pitch in a hitters’ park like Webb does.

It wasn’t pretty, but the Indians swept the Rockies tonight despite Bob Wickman’s best effort to blow a save. Why he continually allows runners to take bases is beyond me; I’m sure Eric Wedge has talked to him about this more than a few times, and hopefully it won’t take a blown save or two to convince Wicky to, you know, try to hold a runner once in a while.

Kevin Millwood only went five innings, but seemed to get better as the innings progressed. Thanks to the meticulous John Sanders for letting me know that Millwood threw 33 pitches in the first inning, All those pitches in the first inning shortened his start and made the bullpen go a extra inning. I liked that Howry pitched the seventh and Rhodes the eighth, because the matchups favored Arthur in that inning. The defense helped out as well; Ronnie Belliard made a nice double play to get out of a jam (caused by his error), and Coco Crisp and Jody Gerut made nice diving/sliding stops in the outfield.

Jhonny Peralta didn’t play tonight, but there was a legitimate reason this time; Peralta hyperextended his elbow in last night’s game, so he got the night off in order to help the injury heal.

Ben Broussard left tonight’s game to be with his wife for the imminent birth of their first child. Congrats, Ben!

Thanks partly to Omar Vizquel, the Giants beat the Twins tonight, so the Indians end the day 8.5 games out of first place, and three games behind Minnesota (and the wild card lead).

Aaron Boone in June: .317/.396/.634. Baby steps….

Next up are the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have a pretty good offense, and a suspect pitching staff, with their bullpen shouldering the largest share of the blame. Check out what 1B Tony Clark is doing:

125 AB, .352/.388/.712, 10 2B, 11 HR

The good news is that the Indians miss Javier Vazquez. The bad news is that they face two southpaws during the series, so that probably means two more games with Casey Blake in right field.