Ryan

Traded LHP Cliff Bartosh to the Chicago Cubs for RHP Bear Bay

Not a bad return for someone that Shapiro had to trade or lose. Bay isn’t much of a prospect, but like Tom Mastny, he’s an semi-interesting player. He’s shown good control over his brief professional career (1.68 W/9), though that control may be all that’s separating his 3.10 ERA last year from a much higher one, as evidenced by his hit rates. Bay should join Mastny in the Kinston rotation.

As for Bartosh, I think he can carve out a major-league career for himself, especially now that he’s made a roster. But I thought the same of Carl Sadler and Alex Herrera, so take my opinions on young LOOGYs with a very large grain of salt.

Optioned OF Grady Sizemore, LHP Brian Tallet, and SS Brandon Phillips to Buffalo (AAA)

If the Gonzalez/Sizemore decision was by proxy Shapiro versus Wedge, then it looks like Shapiro won the argument, although this doesn’t really condemn Sizemore to the same fate as Brandon Phillips; it’s mainly a matter of time until Juan tweaks something (it was the right hamstring today), so Sizemore should get significant playing time in Cleveland. Phillips, on the other hand, is probably stuck unless Jhonny Peralta goes on the shelf for a long period of time. With Alex Cora a very capable short or long-term fix, Phillips is going to have to really rake in Buffalo to get a callup before September. Brian Tallet probably was the biggest pitching surprise in camp, but with two left-handers already in the bullpen, Tallet fell victim to a numbers game. Matt Miller certainly didn’t help himself in his last couple outings, but he was pitching to left-handed hitters, which isn’t going to happen once the games start to count.

Speaking of left-handers, Cliff Bartosh is probably going to be dealt before the season starts. Contrary to what I believed, he has no options remaining, so rather than trying to sneak him through waivers, the Indians are going to try to get something for him. He’s left-handed and breathing, so there should be some interest.

Assigned RHP Paul Shuey, RHP Steve Watkins, and RHP Jason Bere to minor-league camp

Watkins should go in Buffalo’s rotation, while Shuey and Bere stay behind in Winter Haven to rehab.

Signed 2B Danny Garcia to a minor-league contract

He should take the place of Warren Morris, who’s out after breaking his finger. Garcia is a mildly interesting player; he had a couple good seasons in the Mets organization, including a .333/.391/.530 for Binghampton in 2003. His line in the majors is .227/.345/.361, which isn’t too horrid for a backup infielder (for reference, here’s John McDonald’s career line). Fortunately, he shouldn’t be needed.

20. LHP Tony Sipp
How Acquired: 2004 Draft (45th Round)
College: Clemson
ETA: 2007

One of the steals of the 2004 draft, the Indians enticed Sipp to forego his senior year at Clemson, giving him 6th round money. The large bonus seems to have been worth it; Sipp was lights out with the Scrappers, striking out 74 in 42.2 IP. Sipp has a nice fastball-slider combo, but the Indians want him to learn a changeup to round out his repetroire. Thus far he’s worked out of the bullpen, but if all goes well he might move into a starting role as his strength and endurance improves.

19. OF Juan Valdes
How Acquired: 2003 Draft (5th Round)
High School: Fernando Callejo (Manati, PR)
ETA: 2008

Why am I including a raw but “projectable” outfielder on this list, when there are other good prospects in the organization? Part of it is a leap of faith on my part, figuring that as his frame fills out, the power will come. Part of it is because he’s already shown decent plate discipline. And part of it comes from glowing scouting reports. Valdes is a switch-hitter, a very good base stealer, and probably weighs 160 pounds soaking wet. If there’s anyone in the organization poised for a breakout season, it’s him. He’s slated to start the season with the Captains.

Placed LHP CC Sabathia on the 15-day Disabled List (oblique)

This is the first trip to the DL in Sabathia’s four-year career, and it doesn’t look like he’ll miss much time. Jason Davis, who looked good against the Reds on Friday, will take Sabathia’s place in the rotation, and Matt Miller and Rafael Betancourt should both make the club as result. Jake Westbrook is slated to be the Opening Day starter.

Optioned Kazuhito Tadano to Buffalo (AAA)

Kaz didn’t have too good a spring, posting an ERA of 9.00 (10 innings pitched). I’m going to assume he’s still a starter, but that might be subject to change depending on the needs of the big-league club. The Bisons’ pitching preview says Tadano could be either a starter or a reliever.

Assigned OF Andy Abad, IF Mike Kinkade, 1B Jeff Liefer, OF John Rodriguez, RHP Denny Stark, C Dusty Wathan, and LHP Chad Zerbe to minor-league camp

Most, if not all, of these players are going to play in Buffalo this year. Stark looks to be in the rotation, Liefer should be the starting first baseman, and Wathan will be Ryan Garko’s caddy.

I’ve updated the Options page; after the season starts, I’ll add salary and YOS info to the page as well.

As Spring Training winds down, it’s becoming more and more obvious that Juan Gonzalez might not make the team. Witness these quotes by manager Eric Wedge:

“I want someone who has the total package, the total game,” Wedge said. “I want the offense, the defense, the persona, the attitude, the energy, the whole nine yards.”

“I’ve got to know I can count on [Gonzalez],” Wedge said. “I’ve got to know he’s going to show up and play on a daily basis. He’s got to be able to play the outfield and handle himself out there.”

Now maybe I’m reading too much into things, but quotes like that seem to be code for “Gonzalez hasn’t been good enough.” Granted, his recent hamstring injury may have something to do with Juan’s Lawton-esque fielding this spring, but Juan being health is almost as important (or maybe moreso) as Juan hitting. If it were my decision, I’d probably keep him around, knowing that Sizemore, Ludwick, and (eventually) Gerut could pick up the slack if Juan ends up on the DL again. You also can’t discount Grady’s play, who has done nothing but impress team officials this spring. Casey Blake’s smooth transition to the outfield probably plays a part in this decision as well; from what I saw yesterday, he looked pretty good in left field.

What part does defense play in this decision? Scott Elarton and Cliff Lee are fly-ball pitchers, so placing Sizemore in center, Crisp in left, and Blake in right probably helps them out. The “attitute and energy” probably favors Grady as well. I don’t know how much the team will credit Sizemore for his “intangibles,” but it’s kind of interesting that the younger player in the battle might win a spot because of them. The offense is firmly in Gonzalez’s favor; although Grady should eventually become a nice weapon at the plate, Juan is still the better hitter. Placing him behind Hafner and Martinez would be nice protection for the two third-year players, and would take some pressure off them as the league adjusts.

I personally think this uncertainty is due more to Sizemore’s positives than Gonzalez’s negatives. Yes, the hamstring injury was the event that put Juan’s roster spot in doubt, but without Sizemore, Juan probably makes the team anyway.

I’m pretty tired of season previews and player profiles right now (although I am working on my long-neglected prospect profiles), so I want to delve into organizational strategies again.

The buzzword among baseball television analysts in recent years has been “Moneyball”. To some it means geeks pounding away at keyboards in the Oakland front office. Whenever I’m bored enough to turn on “Baseball Tonight,” usually a Moneyball-related zinger gets thrown out by one of the many of their esteemed commentators that is really totally unrelated to the thesis of the book. Sometimes I hear backlashes on radio broadcasts, usually off-hand references to closers or strikeouts or even on-base precentage. It seems that the book has perpetuated a myth that continues to grow to this day; that Moneyball is all about statistics.

No, Moneyball is not about on-base percentage and strikeout-to-walk ratios. The Oakland A’s (much like the Indians are now) were in a situation where they didn’t have the resources to outbid teams for top performers, so they looked for areas where players were under-rated by the market. In the late 1990s, the most undervalued players were those who didn’t have high batting averages, but could take a walk. So GM Billy Beane picked up a lot of players who fit this profile at a discount rate. Guys like Matt Stairs and Olmaedo Saenz and John Jaha were picked up cheap, and rewarded Oakland with several good seasons. But over the past couple of years, the word’s gotten out, and these type of players aren’t as affordable as before.

What’s the moral of the story? It isn’t about OBP or whatever else is in vogue at the time; it’s about finding players who are undervalued by the market. In recent years, defense has become an undervalued commodity. More recently, the Indians seem to have concentrated on injured players as undervalued commodities; they have been among the most-lauded organizations as far as rehab is concerned, and judging by some recent triumphs (Jack Cressend, Bob Howry, etc), they have had some success in this area. They have used minor-league free agency well, grabbling guys like Casey Blake, Matt Miller, and Rafael Betancourt for peanuts. What they’ve done isn’t exactly what Beane did in Oakland, but the spirit seems to be the same; exploiting market inefficiencies to grab undervalued players. The Twins are probably one of the most stathead-phobic organizations around, but they do an excellent job in player development and scouting, which they use to their advantage. The Atlanta Braves have rode their tools-based philosophy to umpteen straight division titles. In other words, it isn’t about OBP or drafting college players per se; it’s identifying what you do best and using it as a competitive advantage.

But of course, your organization has to actually do something well in order to exploit it. If you run a small-market organization just like the Yankees, you won’t win because you can’t run your organization like the Yankees and have success. What works for some teams just won’t work for others. The Atlanta Braves probably wouldn’t be as successful if they went to a statistically-oriented player evaluation strategy. That’s why it’s possible to win in baseball despite the disparity in payrolls; teams do things differently. If you can structure your organization in a way that maximizes your chances of winning, whether that be by constructing a proprietary computer system or building a top-notch training staff, you can beat the big-money behemoths. You won’t win every time, but that sure beats trying hopelessly to win by emulating the same strategy as everyone else.

Placed OF Jody Gerut on the 15-day Disabled List (knee)

Because the Indians shouldn’t need a roster spot right away, they’re keeping their options open in case Gerut is ready to play sooner rather than later. If Jody is ready for action in late May, Mark Shapiro and Eric Wedge have some interesting decisions to make. If you count Grady Sizemore, the team would have six competent major-league ready outfielders on the roster, and only Gerut and Sizemore have options remaining.

[EDIT] Reader Alex pointed out that Coco Crisp also has an option remaining. Which means the decision becomes even more interesting if everyone’s healthy.

Speaking of options, I should have my options page up by the end of the week. Until then, here’s the players which (I believe) have options (along with the years) remaining:

Pitchers: Cliff Bartosh (1), Rafael Betancourt (1)*, Andrew Brown (2), Fernando Cabrera (2), Fausto Carmona (3), Francisco Cruceta (2), Jason Davis (1), Kyle Denney (3), Jake Dittler (3), Jeremy Guthrie (1), Cliff Lee (1), Matt Miller (1), Jason Stanford (1), Kazuhito Tadano (2), Brian Tallet (1)

Catchers: Josh Bard (1), Victor Martinez (1)

Infielders: Jhonny Peralta (1), Brandon Phillips (1)

Outfielders: Coco Crisp (1), Jody Gerut (1), Franklin Gutierrez (3), Grady Sizemore (2)

I’m a bit unsure about Betancourt, but the rest I’m fairly certain about.

Anyway, back to the assignments:

Optioned RHP Fernando Cabrera, RHP Francisco Cruceta, and RHP Kyle Denney to Buffalo (AAA)

Cabrera has had a horrid camp; more specifically, he hasn’t been able to throw strikes. Lack of control is the last thing you want a reliever to have, so he’ll go back to Buffalo and work on his mechanics. Cruceta and Denney are probably among the top starter options should there be a need sometime this season.

Assigned C Ryan Garko, RHP Kenny Rayborn, and RHP Jake Robbins to minor-league camp

Garko, along with Franklin Gutierrez, has impressed the Indians the most this spring. Ryan is still a catcher, though that may be subject to change as the year progresses. If someone like Jose Hernandez has to go on the DL, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Garko recalled to serve as a platoon first baseman. Rayborn and Robbins are both veteren minor-leaguers; Robbins probably has the better shot of a call-up.

Yesterday Roberto Alomar announced his retirement from baseball. For me, Alomar retiring before the 2005 is kind of a shock remembering how good he was in his three-year stint with the Indians. The season he had in 1999 ranks right up there with Albert Belle’s 1995 as the best individual season I’ve seen an Indians player have. Here’s his line in 1999:

563 AB, .323/.422/.533, 40 2B, 24 HR, 120 RBI, 37 SB, 6 CS

He finished third in the MVP balloting that year behind Ivan Rodriguez and Pedro Martinez (Manny Ramirez finished fourth). Those are impressive numbers at any position, but doing it as a second baseman is incredible. And, lest I forget, he won his 8th (out of an eventual 10) Gold Glove that year. Along with Omar Vizquel, Alomar formed the best double-play combination I’ve seen in my 20 years of watching baseball.

In 2001, Alomar finished 4th in MVP balloting, then fell off the face of the earth. I have no explanation as to Alomar’s freefall, and no I don’t think the trade had much of anything to do with it. Middle infielders tend not to age gracefully, but what happend to Alomar defies explanation. I guess you could compare Alomar’s career to that of Carlos Baerga, but even that really isn’t a good comp; Baerga was never that good a fielder, and Alomar was a much more patient hitter that Carlos was (and still is). The only parallels were that both were Indians, and both were dealt at exactly the right time. And both were traded to the New York Mets. My best guess is that he physically broke down all at once, including his reflexes and vision.

In my mind Alomar is as sure-fire a Hall of Famer as you can get. Assuming the writers look past the spitting incident and Roberto’s other flaws (which is a big assumption, considering who votes for the Hall), I don’t see how anyone can not vote for him based strictly on his playing career. He was the best second baseman of his era, he was a key contributor on two World Series champions, won 10 Gold Gloves, will finish with over 2700 hits, 1100 RBIs, finished in the MVP voting 5 times, was a 12-time All-Star, and finished his career with a .300/.371/.443 line. If Ryne Sandberg’s in (and deservedly so), Roberto Alomar should definitely be in.

Optioned RHP Andrew Brown and OF Franklin Gutierrez to Buffalo (AAA)

It’s been almost a year since Milton Bradley was traded to the Dodgers, and the rewards are close to being realized. Brown and Gutierrez both had tremendous springs, but need more seasoning at the AAA level (and maybe a little at the AA level for Gutierrez). Brown has been coverted to a relief pitcher, and may move quicker than Gutierrez, who has to polish his swing and contend with an organizational surplus of outfielders. Brown has great stuff, but needs to fine-tune his command to make it to Cleveland. Nevertheless, both have good shots at seeing action some time this season.

Denny Stark had been impressive so far this spring; he probably wasn’t going to win a spot, but could have been among the early-season callups. Then this happened. He allowed 10 runs in 1.2 innings, and gave up two home runs (including one to pitcher Mike Hampton). Brian Tallet pitched well again, throwing two shutout innings; I’ve never been that impressed with Tallet even before the elbow injury, but he’s left-handed, so he may work his way into a bullpen job down the road. And Juan Gonzalez played, which is always a good thing; at this point, Juan can’t have another setback, or he’ll probably be gone (no pun intended).

Don’t miss the outstanding Indians preview from Baseball Think Factory’s Matthew Rich. In the preview is included an interview with assistant GM Chris Antonetti, and one of the questions involved the team’s willingness to sign injured players. Since injured players are going to be undervalued commodities, if you have a good rehab program, you can get a great return if the player recovers from an injury. If the team can build for itself a sort of niche as an organization that’s good at resurrecting careers, they might attract more of these types of players based just on their reputation.

Signed Manager Eric Wedge to a two-year extension (through 2007)

It’s been two seasons since Eric Wedge became manager, and I still can’t pidgeon-hole him. He isn’t a true over-the-top firebrand like Larry Bowa, but he’s an intense guy. He spends most of the winter in the front office consulting about player moves. From what I can tell, he gets along extremely well with Shapiro, and everyone in the clubhouse not named Milton Bradley. He’s been judicious with young pitching, especially during the 2003 season. He was willing to be patient with young players. These things can obviously change, but two years is a long time to hide a flaw. His handling of the Bradley incident was exceptional; he showed a lot more restraint than I would have given the comments aimed at him after the trade.

But is he a good manager? The jury’s still out. Until now, he hasn’t been given enough ammunition to win with. Now, with the team a legitimate threat to win the division, we’ll be able to answer that question.

Signed everyone else on the staff through 2006

This includes pitching coach Carl Willis, hitting coach Eddie Murray, third base coach Joel Skinner, first base coach Jeff Datz, bench coach Buddy Bell, bullpen coach Luis Isaac, and bullpen catcher Dan Williams. I like what Murray’s done with the young hitters, and I’m not sold on Carl Willis yet. The others? Well, Luis Isaac has been in the organization forever, and the other guys seem to be doing a good job; I mean, how do you judge how well a first base coach does his job (and self-defense skills when in Chicago don’t count)?

Tomorrow is the trifecta; St. Patrick’s Day, the NCAA tournament, and the last day before Spring Break. I predict a massive flu outbreak.