Ryan

I apologize for continuing on this Westbrook theme, but I found this article yesterday, and it piqued my interest even further. It goes a bit further than I have, examining what type of balls in play pitchers give up. The Hardball Times compiled the data and showed the outcomes (eg strikeouts, walks, groundball, etc) by percentage. It turns out that Jake gave up the greatest proportion of ground balls in the majors, 49%. More importantly, Westbrook also gave up a below-average percentage of line drives, 11%. Why is that important? HT figured the percentage of the time certain outcomes turned into outs, and line drives were caught only 26% of the time. So obviously if you’re a pitcher, giving up a lot of line drives isn’t a good idea.

So what’s the best type of out, then? Obviously #1 is a strikeout; you will almost always record an out if this happens (the exceptions being a strikeout combined with a wild pitch or passed ball). Infield flies are next at 97%. After that it gets a bit tricky. Outfield flies (75%) become outs more often than ground balls (72%), but ground balls never become home runs; outfield flies leave the park 12% of the time.

Where am I going with this? It’s very possible, if you’re an extreme ground ball pitcher, to be successful with a lower than average strikeout rate. There are two big caveats, though. Number one, the pitcher has to keep his walks down. Number two, he has to have a good infield defense behind him. Obviously the best outcome would be for Jake to raise his strikeout rate to 5.5-5.8, but if his ground ball percentage sticks around 50%, it’s very possible that he can be effective while posting substandard strikeout ratios. By effective I mean a 4.00-4.25 ERA, not a 3.38 ERA. That’s a good middle-of-the-rotation pitcher.

Brandon Webb, who makes a nice Westbrook comp, saw his ERA increase because his walk percentage ballooned to 14%. I’d take Webb over Westbrook because of his ability to combine his sinker with a healthy strikeout rate, but his stat line serves as a reminder of what can happen if you start walking batters without compensating with strikeouts.

I’ll throw out some percentages for other Indians starters tomorrow.

By the way, check out Dave Haller’s excellent article on Barry Larkin (and to a certain extent) Omar Vizquel.

Signed RHRP Paul Shuey to a minor-league contract; Invited him to Spring Training

Shuey is probably done thanks to all the injuries, but if you’re the Indians, why not bring him in? His degenerative hip isn’t going to go away, and he also is coming off a thumb injury, so he’s a real longshot to make the team. His strikeout rates had been going down even before missing the 2004 season, so I’m really tempering my expectations. He’s not yet to the Jason Bere setting on the toaster (burnt to a crisp), but his career outlook is getting slightly golden brown. Shapiro likes to take care of his former players, and Shuey is by all accounts a great guy to have on your team. I just don’t know if he can pitch anymore.

Signed OF Darnell McDonald to a minor-league contract; Invited him to Spring Training

The second Orioles bust signed this offseason (Jose Morban), McDonald is a former 1st round pick who never developed any power. Now that he’s been cut loose by the Orioles, he’ll have to ply his trade as a “veteren” minor-league outfielder. He posted a .662 OPS in AAA last year, which is not a good sign considering he’s coming off shoulder surgery. He doesn’t have the speed or range to play center field, so it looks like he’s going to be either Buffalo’s or Akron’s reserve outfielder.

This issue has been puzzling me for a while, and the Westbrook signing really brought it to the forefront. Given Westbrook’s method of pitching, is it fair to exact him to the same evaluation methods that we apply other more conventional hurlers to? First, let’s examine Jake’s peripherals, which are usually the most useful in making predictions.

Strikeouts per 9 innings: 4.8

For the average pitcher, this isn’t really an encouraging sign. The ability to strike out hitters is the surest way of run prevention, and pitchers with lower strikeout ratios have a lower margin for error in allowing runs.

Walks per 9 innings: 2.6

This is pretty good. Westbrook finished 14th in the AL in BB/9, which doesn’t really signify anything by itself.

Hits per 9 innings: 8.7

Above average numbers here, but nothing to get excited over.

Home Runs per 9 innings: 0.79

This is pretty good. Jacobs Field has been a fairly neutral park in recent seasons, so I’ll just assume that this ratio doesn’t need to be adjusted much.

DIPS ERA: 4.19

DIPS stands for Defense Independent Defense Statistics. This is, essentially, Westbrook’s ERA independent of his defense. Given that his ERA was .90 runs lower than his dERA, this is a red flag. This seems to indicate Westbrook was lucky last season.

BABIP: .263

BABIP stands for “Batting Average of Balls in Play”. This is the “batting average” of balls put in play. And like the dERA, the BABIP indicates Westbrook was lucky with where where his pitches were hit.

SLG% Against: .386

This is an encouraging sign. This is the slugging percentage of the batters that faced him last season, and it’s the 4th best in the league. This indicates the hits Westbrook did allow were more likely to be singles than extra-base hits.

GB/FB Ratio: 2.72

Westbrook only trailed Derek Lowe in this category.

What does all this indicate? First of all, Westbrook was pretty lucky last season, and his ERA is likely to go up. But I’m wondering out loud if Westbrook’s sinker causes more “weak contact” than the average pitcher. I watched most of his starts in 2004, and when he was on, hitters couldn’t hit the ball with any authority, and most of the time any contact resulted in weak grounders to short or second. DIPS ERA uses the assumption that MLB pitchers do not differ greatly on their ability to prevent hits on balls in play, but there are a couple possible exceptions. One is a knuckball pitcher, whose general goal is to keep hitters off balance. Another one could be extreme groundball pitchers, who try to pitch to “weak contact” by throwing heavy sinkers. I don’t know of any way to substantiate this, so for now this is a just a wild theory. I’ll peg Westbrook for an ERA of 4.25 or so next season based on his peripherals, but I’ll also be interested to see if his BABIP changes appreciably. Obviously to be successful with a strikeout rate of 5.0 or less, a pitcher has to keep his walks down as well as keep the running game under control, both of which Jake did in 2004. But if his BABIP continues to stay low, it may indicate that his sinker is good enough almost by itself to make Westbrook a valuable pitcher.

Sources: ESPN, STATS, Inc.

Signed RHSP Jake Westbrook to a two-year, $7.5M contract, avoiding arbitration

This deal I can handle. Like with Blake’s deal, the Indians have a 2007 club option. I don’t know whether Westbrook will be eligible for free agency after the 2006 season, but judging by the terms of the contract, I’ll assume that he wouldn’t have his 6 years of service in until after 2007. Because free agency is based on service time, it’s difficult to know whether a guy like Westbrook, who bounced back and forth between Cleveland and the minors the past several season, will be a free agent in 2006 or 2007.

Westbrook, like Blake, is due for a regression next year. Unlike Blake, I think Westbrook will be worth his contract. Jake’s style of pitching means that he’s subject to more variability in his numbers than a strikeout pitcher, but his sinker is good enough to make him a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter if healthy. Given the market for starting pitching, Westbrook at $2.9M this season and $4.25M in 2006 is a pretty good value even if his ERA climbs back to the 4.00 range.

With Westbrook’s signing, the Indians have taken care of all their major offseason business. Shapiro has hinted that he’ll try to sign a couple younger players to long-term deals (Martinez and Hafner come to mind), but that usually happens in Spring Training.

I had intended to answer yesterday’s question by using theoretical players. Now I’ll use Casey Blake instead.

Re-signed OF Casey Blake to a two-year, $5.4M contract, avoiding arbitration

Blake was a “super-two,” meaning he was arbitration-eligible even though he had less than three seasons worth of service time. The Indians, if they choose, have Blake for four more seasons. Casey is not your typical arbitration player; he’s one of the older players on the roster, and before the 2003 season, only baseball junkies knew who he was. He started his career with the Toronto Blue Jays, drafted as a senior out of Wichita State. He got a cup of coffee with the Jays, but he couldn’t crack the major-league roster. He then moved to Minnesota, to Baltimore, and back to Minnesota, and had accumulated a grand total of 49 major-league at-bats before the Indians invited him to Spring Training. He beat out Greg LaRocca (who?) and hasn’t looked back. Now he’s guaranteed $5.4M over the next two seasons, probably more than he’s made his entire professional career put together.

My question is whether giving Blake two years is worth it. He’s moving to the outfield, where you almost have to expect Blake to repeat his 2004 season in order to be a productive outfielder. I really don’t see Blake doing that, though. His 2004 numbers are completely out of whack compared to what he did in the minors and in 2003. Yes, he hasn’t gotten a real chance before now, but at age 31, his career shouldn’t be compared to guys like Victor Martinez or Travis Hafner, both of whom have better minor-league resumes and who are on the better side of 30. The Indians made this decision based on Blake’s intangibles, saying that his work ethic and his attitude had a large say in the two-year deal. That’s all very nice, but you still have the data to contend with. I wouldn’t categorize Blake’s output in 2004 as a Brady Anderson-sized fluke, but at the same time you have to expect some kind of regression next season. The Indians are compounding this by moving him to left field, where a team’s best offensive outfielder usually resides. Relying on Blake to repeat what may be a career year just to be an average outfielder isn’t a gamble that’s likely to pay off. For instance, let’s see where Blake’s 2003 and 2004 OPSs would have placed him among 2004 AL left fielders:

Manny Ramirez 1.010
Hideki Matsui .912
Carlos Lee .891
Jose Guillen .848
Casey Blake .839 (2004)
Lew Ford .826
Shannon Stewart .826
Raul Ibanez .825
Craig Monroe .825
Eric Byrnes .814
Rondell White .790
Matt Lawton .787
Carl Crawford .779
Larry Bigbie .766
Eric Young .754
Casey Blake .723 (2003)
Reed Johnson .698

Essentially, if Blake is as good in 2005 as he was in 2004, he’s a pretty decent player, even for a left fielder. If, however, he reverts back to his 2003 form….well, let’s just hope he doesn’t do that. Which is why I don’t like this signing. If Aaron Boone stays healthy and Blake regresses to his earlier self, there’s a big problem. He’s not a good enough defender to play second base, and if he’s not adequate as a left fielder, he definitely wouldn’t meet the offensive standards that’s expected of a first baseman.

Getting back to yesterday’s question….no, I would not give that fictious player a salary commensurate of a 100 T player, because more than likely, he won’t be a 100 T player over the life of his contract. Because the player’s age says that 2004 was more of a fluke than a legitimate break-out, it’s not likely that the player will even maintain his T level next season. In this real-life situation, the medium involved is arbitration, which is a different environment to work in. The Indians weren’t going to lose Blake if they didn’t agree to a deal before the arbitration hearing, and given the figures submitted by Blake and the Indians, his 2005 salary wouldn’t be a whole lot different if the two sides had gone to arbitration. But the guarenteed second year means that the Indians may be paying $3.05M for a player without a position in 2006. Like Rotoworld said, Blake is a player you really need to go year-to-year with. Which makes this move the first real dud of the offseason for the Indians.

In today’s economic environment, good player evaluation is a vital component of a successful organization. I would define the term as follows: the rating of baseball players. Now of course this rating system has many factors in it. Also, different rating systems have to used for different types of players, ie a team probably won’t use the same criteria to rate a possible free agent target and a high school senior. For my purposes, I’m going to use a fictious measure, T, to serve as an example through the subsequent parts of this series. T stands for Talent, a term used often but never explained. Also assume that as T goes up, the value provided to the organization increases proportionally.

Now the trick is, if you’re the GM, to place a T measure on a player. At the major-league level, this isn’t too difficult. Since at the major-league level everyone’s numbers are relevent, you can use statistical analysis for the offense, and teams usually have their own defensive measures to use. I should however differentiate between current value and projected value, which is a totally different animal. Current value is what a particular player is worth at a given point in time. This is useful for in-season moves such as rental trades. The more tricky measure, projected value, comes into play when teams are looking at a player in the long-term view. In this instance, age is a huge factor, as well as career trends and peripheral statistics from the past couple of years. Let’s say that a player is worth 100 T as of the last day of the season. However, this player is a free agent, and the team is pondering whether they should pay him what he’s asking for. Let’s assume that the these are the players’ previous T rankings:

2001: 80 T (Age 28)
2002: 70 T (Age 29)
2003: 75 T (Age 30)
2004: 100 T (Age 31)

Because the player’s 100 T season happened to coincide with his walk year, he expects to be paid as a 100 T player. Also assume that his walks and strikeouts in 2004 did not differ dramatically from his previous three seasons. What do you as GM do?

I’ll give you my answer, along with the various facets that went into it, tomorrow.

Signed IF Alex Cora to a two-year, $2.7M contract

Believe it or not, this is the first multi-year contract given out by the Indians since the 2001-2002 offseason, when CC Sabathia, Bob Wickman, and Matt Lawton were given contract extensions and Ricky Gutierrez was signed as a free agent. Technically, Aaron Boone’s deal is a multi-year contract, but he didn’t actually play for the team last season. Given that whoever lost the battle between Brandon Phillips and Jhonny Peralta wasn’t going to be a backup, adding Cora to the mix is a nice insurance policy. Hopefully it isn’t too attractive to Eric Wedge, who may be tempted to bench Peralta if he goes through an extended slump. If Cora is used like the team says they’re going use him, he should be a nice complementary part. In a previous post, I said that Cora’s main asset is his defense. He also is a left-handed hitter, which I previously alluded too but failed to mention explicity. Cora’s main job should be to give Belliard one or two days off a week, and spot Peralta once in a while. He can be used in a late-inning situation when defense is a priority. Heck, he may become Jake Westbrook’s personal infielder.

Whither Brandon Phillips, assuming he does lose out to Peralta? Back to Buffalo, where he’ll probably play shortstop most of the time. The Indians have an option on Belliard, but I get the sense that it won’t get picked up based on Shapiro said during today’s conference call. That leaves second base open to Phillips, Cora, or both in 2006. Unless Brandon Pinckney makes gigantic strides next season, it looks like the job will be Phillips’ to lose. Also, Peralta may eventually grow out of the shortstop position, possibly moving to third base, so Phillips, thanks to his quasi-rebound in 2004, still has a future with the club.

Also in today’s press conference Shapiro said that Jose Hernandez would be more of utility player, playing first, third, left or even center field against a left-handed pitcher. Blake, although he’s a right-handed hitter, tended to struggle against southpaws; he posted an OPS of only .785 against left-handers in 2004, compared to .865 against right-handers. That added to the possibility that 2004 may have been a career year leads me to believe that the Indians are planning for a drop in production from Casey with the acquisitions of Juan Gonzalez and Jose Hernandez.

Designated 3B/OF Corey Smith for Assignment

Better late than never, I guess. Smith didn’t really deserve roster protection last winter, but because of his first-round pedigree, he got it. I would think that he’d be claimed on waivers, but with most of the free agents already signed, a lot of teams may not have the roster spot to spare. Maybe he just needs a change of scenery

Signed RHRP David Riske to one-year, $1.425M contract, avoiding arbitration

A pretty good deal for a reliever who still has excellent stuff. I wouldn’t be surprised if he supplants Bob Howry as Wickman’s primary setup man next season. I think the days of Riske as closer are probably long gone, but he can be just as valuable in the 8th inning.

Signed 2B Warren Morris and IF Jake Thrower to minor-league contracts

Morris will probably take over Brent Abernathy’s role in Buffalo. Given the recent infielder signings, picking Cleveland might not have been the best career move for Warren. As for Thrower, I haven’t heard too much about him. His minor-league numbers look fairly pedestrian, and the press release said that he was a utility player with the Angel’s AAA affiliate last season. So it looks like he’ll be going to Buffalo along with Morris.

Re-signed C Dusty Wathan to a minor-league contract

Wathan might be the Bisons’ starting catcher next year, depending on where Ryan Garko is playing positionally. I would think that the Indians want Garko as a catcher if for no other reason than to maximize his value, but he should also see some time at first base, leaving Wathan to fill in the gaps.

I apologize for the short hiatus in posting, but the beginning of the semester has kept me on the run. I’m working on the All-Time pitchers as of this moment, so the Excel sheet should be updated by the weekend.

One of the big reasons why Alex Cora is reportedly close to a deal with the Indians is because he would fill a couple roles. I don’t think he’s going to be signed as a starter, but mostly as a utility guy. If the reports are correct, he’ll be getting a two-year deal, which is excessive for the type of role that he’ll be playing, but I’ll cross that bridge when he actually signs. What I am going to speculate on is how exactly he’ll be used.

First of all, let’s examine Cora’s strengths; after all, the best managers use their players’ strengths. Cora is first and foremost a defensive player. He “broke out” offensively this season, posting a .266 EQA with the Dodgers. Now that may have been helped by the fact that Jose Hernandez was platooning with him, but regardless he did hit .264/.364/.380, well above his career averages. He’s not going to be the full-time starter at shortstop or second base unless several things happen, all of which are bad for the Indians. That being said, he could reprise his role somewhat as a platoon player and be a productive player. He can spell both Jhonny Peralta and Ronnie Belliard against a tough right-hander, or enter the game as a defensive upgrade over either. He posted a FRAR of 29 and 28 in 2003 and 2004, so think of him as John McDonald with more offense.

So how would this work on the field? Assuming that Peralta is starting at short, and Juan Gonzalez has his back under control, the postion players look like this, with their primary backups in parentheses:

C Victor Martinez (Josh Bard)
1B Ben Broussard (Travis Hafner/Jose Hernandez)
2B Ronnie Belliard (Alex Cora)
SS Jhonny Peralta (Alex Cora/Jose Hernandez)
3B Aaron Boone (Jose Hernandez/Casey Blake)
LF Casey Blake (Ryan Ludwick/Jose Hernandez)
CF Coco Crisp (Ryan Ludwick)
RF Juan Gonzalez (Ryan Ludwick/Jose Hernandez)
DH Travis Hafner

Now these are my guesses, but Eric Wedge may certainly see things differently. It all really hinges on what roles Hernandez and Cora play. If Wedge decides to make Hernandez this year’s Lou Merloni (platoon with Broussard), then Cora would fill in at the other infield positions. Maybe Hernandez is the backup at third instead of Blake, or maybe he’s Peralta’s primary backup. Perhaps the Indians will use Cora similarly to when he was a Dodger, platooning him with Belliard. I see Cora fitting into a more offense/defense type of platoon, where he might be brought in at second or short with a lead late in a game. Hernadez is more of an offensive asset, his role should be as a pinch-hitter who can also play every infield position.

Whenever I hear an interview with Wedge, he reiterates the need to keep the starters fresh; it was pretty obvious that a lot of the regulars simply wore down last season because the bench wasn’t that good. Adding Hernandez and Cora to the mix should make resting Peralta, Belliard, or Boone a lot more palatable.

From now to the start of Spring Training is the least active time of year for baseball news. Yeah, the Indians might bring back Dusty Wathan or whoever to be the 5th catcher in camp, but there isn’t much going on. I’ll use this time to continue ranking the 100 Greatest Indians (the pitchers should appear within the next day or two), post about baseball in general, and get more into what I said on January 2nd. Essentially this is the time of year to do the things I’ve put off until now.

A couple brief mentions as to some new features. The numbers next to some players’ names indicates their rankings on my own unscientific prospect list. No, I don’t count Grady Sizemore or Jhonny Peralta as prospects because they’ve exceeded the threshold for MLB rookie status, which I used to determine prospect status. Here’s my list, which for now will remain comment-less:

1. RHP Adam Miller – Age 21 (A+)
2. 1B Michael Aubrey – Age 23 (AA)
3. OF Franklin Gutierrez – Age 22 (AA)
4. C/1B Ryan Garko – Age 24 (AA)
5. RHP Fausto Carmona – Age 21 (AA)
6. OF Brad Snyder – Age 23 (A+)
7. RHP Fernando Cabrera – Age 23 (AAA)
8. RHP Andrew Brown – Age 24 (AA)
9. RHP Jake Dittler – Age 22 (AA)
10. LHP Jeremy Sowers – Age 22 (College)
11. OF Ryan Goleski – Age 23 (A-)
12. RHP Francisco Cruceta – Age 24 (AAA)
13. RHP Nick Pesco – Age 21 (A-)
14. 3B Pat Osborn – Age 24 (A+)
15. OF Jason Cooper – Age 24 (AA)
16. 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff – Age 23 (A-)
17. RHP Justin Hoyman – Age 23 (SSA)
18. LHP Dan Cevette – Age 21 (A-)
19. OF Juan Valdes – Age 20 (A-)
20. LHP Tony Sipp – Age 21 (SSA)

The ages are the players’ “baseball ages” for the 2005 season. If the player’s birthday is before July 1, his age is 2005-(birth year). If his birthday is July 1 or after, his age is 2005-(birth year)-1. The level in parenthesis is the prospect’s highest level of “substantial” playing time. In other words, I count only the levels where there was enough at-bats or innings pitched to make an evaluation. I’ll eventually get to comments on each of them, but given that I’ve only seen about 6 or 7 players in person, what I have to say won’t mean that much; I used mainly second-hand reports combined with their statistics to compile this list. If there’s a reader who wants to supply a scouting report on any of the above players, by all means send it in, and I’ll post your report, giving you the credit.

Also don’t forget the Excel worksheet under my ‘Links’ section. As I continue to rank the 100 Greatest Indians, I’ll update the worksheet, so download it early and often (but please but don’t use my bandwidth to open it).

Signed OF Juan Gonzalez to a minor-league contract; Invited him to Spring Training

Regardless of how Bud Shaw wants to spin it, this is a nice deal for the Indians. Gonzalez will return to the scene of his last good season, and hope to resurrect his career. The Indians get to see if he’s healthy for half a million dollars and a minor-league deal.

Back to the Shaw piece. Frankly, I just think he had this column in his queue and was waiting for some excuse to use it. Then the Indians signed Kevin Millwood, so he to re-write it a bit and…voila! Dolan is cheap because the Indians are signing injury-prone players. Nevermind that the Yankees signed Jon Lieber two seasons ago post-Tommy John surgery. Nevermind the Red Sox signed both Matt Mantei and Wade Miller this offseason, both of whom have arguably more question marks than Millwood attached. Where did he think Bob Howry came from? Or Scott Sauerbeck?

Dolan will have to spend serious money first to make serious contention happen.

The Indians aren’t going anywhere you’d identify as a dream destination with the 25th or 26th highest payroll.

Baseball’s economy isn’t suddenly going to get friendly enough to improve that standing significantly, so it’s all on Dolan – as it should be in a town that set an unmatchable sellout streak at Jacobs Field.

Well, I guess I’ll have to wait until I see a Derek Lowe-type signing until I buy those tickets. After all, it’s all about the spending, right?

The only hope of raising revenues significantly this season is a hell-on-wheels start. To take the city by storm, the Indians must take the division by storm. Even then, April and May are tough sells at the turnstile and could be tougher with LeBron James and the Cavaliers in the playoffs.

If I didn’t know better, Shaw just insulted the intelligences of the entire Indians fanbase. When the Indians won last year, the fans showed up. If the Indians win this year, fans will show up. They won’t show up just because they didn’t make an effort to get Carlos Beltran or Pedro Martinez. It’s about winning baseball games, not spending money. And until columnists can learn to tell the difference between the two, I fear we’ll be getting more pieces like this.

Juan Gonzalez is the type of signing clubs of all payrolls look for. It’s not indicative of how cheap the owner is; you could use other arguments much more easily. It’s about getting value for your dollar, no matter how big your wallet is. Otherwise, why would the Red Sox even care about Matt Mantei? There are legitimate arguments that Dolan isn’t spending as much as he could, but this isn’t one of them.