Ryan

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Site Updates

New profiles have been added for Jeriome Robertson, Brent Abernathy, Scott Sauerbeck, Franklin Gutierrez, and Stubby Clapp

I’ve also updated the Options page to the best of my ability. When the minor-league rosters are officially announced, I’ll update the Minor-League Rosters page.

The Agony of Defeat

The two losses on Monday and Tuesday were pretty tough to swallow. In many ways they parallel the back-to-back extra-inning losses last season in Pittsburgh. But however painful the losses, the starts by CC Sabathia and Jason Davis were very much encouraging. Sabathia pitched as well as I’ve ever seen an Indian starter pitch in a long time, and Davis showed marked improvement over last season. Along with Jody Gerut, Travis Hafner, and Ben Broussard, they make up half of my 10 player list that will make or break the 2004 Indians. All 5 have played well. Broussard however sprained his ankle in Monday’s game, and will miss a week, which really hurts the offense.

Who needs to step up? David Riske, Scott Stewart, and Jose Jimenez. The back end of the bullpen lost both games, contests that the Indians for all purposes should have won. Wasting great starts is not an option for this team; they just aren’t capable of outhitting suspect pitching, and least of all suspect relief pitching. The more I look at this bullpen, I’d really like to see Eric Wedge use Jimenez as a matchup righty given his splits, and promote Rafael Betancourt into a more prominant role. Scott Stewart can get both righties and lefties out, so he could be used as an 8th inning guy as well, and not just to get one left-hander out.

This month especially, the Indians are going to have to be able to hit left-handed pitching. The AL Central has the most starting southpaws in the league, and that’s who the Indians will be facing all month. Ron Belliard, Alex Escobar, and Casey Blake will need to step up especially.

But from the two games I’ve seen, this team is much more balanced this year. Belliard, Vizquel, and Lawton have helped to add depth to the lineup, and hopefully those three can stay healthy and help take some of the pressure off the young hitters. Tonight Cliff Lee goes tonight, and hopefully his efforts will be rightly rewarded with a win.

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Opening Day

Ray, people will come Ray. They'll come to Iowa for reasons they can't even fathom. They'll turn up your driveway not knowing for sure why they're doing it. They'll arrive at your door as innocent as children, longing for the past. Of course, we won't mind if you look around, you'll say. It's only $20 per person. They'll pass over the money without even thinking about it: for it is money they have and peace they lack. And they'll walk out to the bleachers; sit in shirtsleeves on a perfect afternoon. They'll find they have reserved seats somewhere along one of the baselines, where they sat when they were children and cheered their heroes. And they'll watch the game and it'll be as if they dipped themselves in magic waters. The memories will be so thick they'll have to brush them away from their faces. People will come Ray. The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... people will come Ray. People will most definitely come.

-Terrence Mann (played by James Earl Jones), Field of Dreams

Today is the day where all 30 major-league teams and their fans think they can win it all. When stadiums across the country, resplendant with bunting and balloons, filled with faithful fans, erupt as the first pitch of the season is thrown. This is the day when every fan sitting in those parks expect great things from their hometown team, expect every player to be better, and no one to get hurt. This is the day where hope springs eternal for moribund organizations, frustrated franchises, and even the nomadic Montreal Expos. This is the year long, painful curses will be exorcised, this is the year when hopes and dreams will become tangible reality. When the home team takes the field for the first time, the uncertainties of the long, cold winter evaporate. Here is the player who was brought in from the other league, the promising rookie, and the old friends back for one more year. This is a time that is both a celebration of our national pastime and also the rebirth of Spring.

Today is Opening Day.

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Transcations

Traded OF Milton Bradley to the Los Angeles Dodgers for OF Franklin Gutierrez and a PTBNL (by 6/30/04)

Regardless of whether you felt the Indians should have traded Bradley in the first place, they got maximum value for him. The PTBNL is of a different ilk than the one involved in the Ricky Gutierrez trade; it will be a high prospect as well, possibly in the Dodgers’ Top 10. As I thumb through my trusty Baseball America Prospect Handbook, Defiance, Ohio native RHP Chad Billingsley would make quite a coup; his one year “anniversary” in the majors is 6-9-04, which would make him eligible for a trade.

I described Gutierrez below as a younger version of Alex Escobar, and the more I look at him, the more I think so. Depending on which publication you look at, he’s either above or below Grady Sizemore on the prospect charts. But while Sizemore brings an all-around game to the table, Gutierrez has one of the best power prospects in baseball, and has a very high ceiling. His drawbacks are common to most young power hitters…he strikes out a lot, he gets pull-happy, and has a long swing. But hitting 20 HR in the Florida State League, the best pitcher’s league in the minors, at age 20 is impressive. He’ll join Jason Cooper and Ben Francisco in Akron, essentially taking recently traded Luke Scott’s spot.

Obviously, this will hurt the major-league club unless Alex Escobar suddenly becomes Sammy Sosa. The Indians were going to struggle to score runs even before the trade, and now they will probably struggle even more. I doubt they score less runs than they did last year (they have quietly upgraded several positions in the lineup), but they certainly won’t finish in the top half of the league in offense.

But given the circumstances, the Indians got as much value as they could have for a troubled young star.

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Transactions

Optioned OF Milton Bradley to Buffalo (AAA)

Purchased the Contracts of UTIF Lou Merloni and RHSP Jeff D’Amico

Assigned RHSP Jason Bere, RHRP Luther Hackman, RHRP Bob Howry, C Dusty Wathan, and UTIF Chris Clapinski to minor-league camp.

Ok, I can’t put this off any longer. If you haven’t heard by now, Milton Bradley is going to be traded very soon. Why is he being traded? I don’t think it’s strictly due to the incident last week against the Astros where Bradley, after being confronted by manager Eric Wedge for not running out a bloop fly ball, he reportedly blew up at Wedge, and left the stadium, taking a taxi back to Winter Haven. I think he’s being traded because that incident crossed the Indians’ threshhold of grief they could take from him. Reading between the lines, the Indians were willing to give Bradley one last chance this season, and until last week, he’s been a model ballplayer.

Predictably, most of the local media has taken Bradley’s side in the matter. Until some more substantiated accounts of the incident comes out (if it ever does), I can’t really take a side here, because frankly, I don’t really know what happened. But I can reason this: for the Indians to trade their best player, their cleanup hitter, four days before Opening Day when fan sentiment is (fairly or unfairly) against them, they must have a darn good reason why. They better. Unfortunately, we may never heard their reasoning in the matter, and it’s a matter of time until the Milton Bradley tell-all interview comes out. Just like Robbie Alomar. Just like Albert Belle. No matter who they get in a trade, the Indians will come out of this looking bad to the general baseball fan. And that’s unfair.

Now, escaping the odious arena of public perception, let’s get into what they could get for Bradley.

Milton Bradley, had he stayed in the lineup for another two weeks last year, could have been in the top 10 in batting average and on-base percentage, and could have been a leader in OPS as well. And he’s a center fielder. And he can steal bases. And he’s only 25. And he’s cheap. So even with his warts, he theoretically has great trade value. Of the teams reportedly in the running for Bradley, Los Angeles appears the best fit. Paul DePodesta, the Dodgers’ GM, needs offense in the worst way, worked with Shapiro when they both were in the Indians’ front office, the Dodgers have one of the best farm systems in the game, and DePodesta is a huge supporter of the tenets of sabermetrics.

I don’t think LA is going to give up Edwin Jackson, possibly the best pitching prospect in the game, for Bradley. But the Dodgers have a couple other blue-chippers in their system:

OF Franklin Gutierrez – essentially a younger version of Venzualen native Alex Escobar. Although the Indians don’t lack for outfield prospects, Gutierrez is a right-handed power, something the Indians don’t really have aside from Alex Escobar and Ryan Ludwick. Ranked #31 on Baseball America’s 2004 Top 100 Prospects List. Of yeah, he’s a natural center fielder.

2003 Stats

A+ Age 20 425 AB, .282/.345/.513, 28 2B, 20 HR

AA Age 20 67 AB, .313/.387/.597, 3 2B, 4 HR

1B James Loney – If the Indians hadn’t drafted Michael Aubrey last year, this is a guy they’d be really after in trade talks. As of right now, Loney has a slight edge over Aubrey because he’s been in the minors for a full season, but I think Aubrey will overtake him this year as a prospect. Still, he’s someone the Indians could trade off to another organization for a player that more fits their needs. Ranked #42 on Baseball America’s 2004 Top 100 Prospect List.

2003 Stats

A+ Age 19 468 AB, .276/.337/.400, 31 2B, 7 HR

A couple other teams in the running, and some of their top prospects:

Oakland – Joe Blanton

Pittsbugh – RHP John VanBenschoten, LHP Sean Burnett, RHP Bryan Bullington

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Transactions

Traded the rights to OF Willy Taveras and OF Luke Scott to the Houston Astros for LHSP Jeriome Robertson

Assigned Jeriome Robertson to Buffalo (AAA)

Since the alternatives included Glendon Rush and Aaron Sele, a nice pickup, if for nothing else than to provide some depth.

Here’s how the negotiations probably went:

Hunsicker: Hey Mark, I want to talk to you about keeping Taveras. He isn’t going to make the club, but we still like him.

Shapiro: I’m sure we can work something out…I’ve been looking to add a starter, and I remember talking to you about Robertson last week..

Hunsicker: I don’t know if I’m willing to deal Robertson straight up for Taveras…

Shapiro: How about I add Luke Scott? He’s stuck in our system, and I know you need outfielders.

Hunsicker: Let me take a look…ok, I think we have a deal.

Taveras and Scott were at the lower ends of the organizational depth chart. Taveras definitely has the higher potential of becoming a good player, but he’s a good 2 years from contributing anything besides speed and defense in the majors. Luke Scott has been old for his levels his entire professional career, and had just reached AA last year. He has shown pretty good power, but not enough to jump him past guys like Jason Cooper, Nathan Panther, Brad Snyder, and Ben Francisco, not to mention Grady Sizemore and all of the young outfielders currently on the Indians’ roster.

Robertson is a tough guy to project. Yeah, he won 15 games last year, but had an ERA above 5.00, not good for a National League pitcher. Given these two facts, the next logical step would be that the Astros offense bailed him out a lot last year. But here’s where it really gets interesting:

In his 15 wins, he had an ERA of 2.09

In his 9 losses and no decisions, he has an ERA of almost 9.00

Here’s his game log from 2003

So his wins AND losses were both earned. This leads me to believe that he has marginal stuff, and if he doesn’t have it, he’s going to get rocked. The Indians seem to be collecting soft-tossing soutpaws: Jason Stanford, Brian Tallet, Billy Traber, and now Robertson. Regardless, for what they gave up, the Indians did a good job of efficiently addressing their needs. Robertson should start in Buffalo, and be the first guy called up if a starter goes down for an extended period of time.

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Stanford the #5 Starter

Jason Stanford has been named the 5th starter for the Indians. Unlike previous years, the 5th starter will actually start in the first week, as the Indians play 7 games in 7 days to start the season

The only real battle left is the 4th outfielder, but I can’t see the Indians picking Coco Crisp over Alex Escobar, especially with all the left-handed pitching the Indians are going to face in April.

Spring Cleaning

Over the next week, I’ll be updating a lot of the links to the right. Once USA Today publishes the salaries, I’ll update the Indians’ current roster’s salaries. Now that minor-league rosters are getting finalized, the organizational depth chart will get an update as well. And I’m going to update the transaction pages as well. So keep checking back between now and Opening Day.

Also, during the season, I’m going to try to concentrate my efforts on keeping the site updated, and trying to stay away from the mundane stuff that I’ve been posting recently. I’d rather focus on the more abstract aspects of the game, and topics that you might not know too much about, such as sabermetrics, scouting, the minors, lineup management, among other things. Don’t worry, I’ll still post any transactions that come across the wire, as well as a short comment if it’s warrented, but I don’t want this to become just a blog that regurgitates the same stuff that you read about in your local paper.

I’d appreciate any suggestions as to any subjects that you want covered, including other teams in the American or National Leagues. I’ll do my best to reply to them. Also, I’ll continue to post any links to baseball-related sites or blogs that get sent my way, so if you have your own creation, don’t hesitate to write.

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Rule 5 Update

Luis Gonzalez has made Colorado’s Opening Day Roster, the first Indians’ Rule 5 pick to do so. Hector Luna is in the running to make the Cardinals’ roster as a utility infielder, and Willy Taveras is still in Houston’s camp. Cardinals manager Tony La Russa really likes Luna and is considering optioning Bo Hart to AAA in order to keep Hector on the roster.

The other pending draft pick, Lino Urdaneta, will probably be returned by Opening Day.

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Transactions

Traded IF Ricky Gutierrez and a big bag of cash to the New York Mets for a PTBNL

Optioned LHRP Cliff Bartosh to Buffalo (AAA)

Assigned RHRP David Lee, OF Ernie Young, RHRP Matt Miller, C Brian Luderer, and IF Zach Sorensen

And so it ends. Gutierrez was a shell of the player the Indians thought they signed in 2002 because of injury, and when he finally completely recovered from two back surgeries, there was no spot for him. The Indians saved approximately $1M (they will pay about 75% of his 2004 contract) from this move, assuming the alternative was outright releasing him. I doubt the PTBNL will be of any consequence.

Some Other Decisions…

Josh Bard may find himself in Buffalo because of an ill-timed injury, and Tim Laker will in all probability back up Victor Martinez.

So now the only real decision left is choosing between Coco Crisp and Alex Escobar to be the 4th outfielder. My money is on Escobar; the Indians will have to face a lot of left-handed pitching in the AL Central, and Escobar is the only right-handed power bat on the roster.

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Transactions

Released RHRP Giovanni Carrara

In Other News…

Manager Eric Wedge announced that Jeff D’Amico will be the 4th starter, Jake Westbrook will go to the bullpen, and Chad Durbin will make the team in some capacity, whether that be as the 5th starter or a longman. This sets the pitching staff, unless Durbin beats out Jason Stanford for the 5th starter. If Stanford loses out, he will definitely go to Buffalo, and a guy like Luther Hackman would be the 7th man in the bullpen.