2000s

As Spring Training winds down, it’s becoming more and more obvious that Juan Gonzalez might not make the team. Witness these quotes by manager Eric Wedge:

“I want someone who has the total package, the total game,” Wedge said. “I want the offense, the defense, the persona, the attitude, the energy, the whole nine yards.”

“I’ve got to know I can count on [Gonzalez],” Wedge said. “I’ve got to know he’s going to show up and play on a daily basis. He’s got to be able to play the outfield and handle himself out there.”

Now maybe I’m reading too much into things, but quotes like that seem to be code for “Gonzalez hasn’t been good enough.” Granted, his recent hamstring injury may have something to do with Juan’s Lawton-esque fielding this spring, but Juan being health is almost as important (or maybe moreso) as Juan hitting. If it were my decision, I’d probably keep him around, knowing that Sizemore, Ludwick, and (eventually) Gerut could pick up the slack if Juan ends up on the DL again. You also can’t discount Grady’s play, who has done nothing but impress team officials this spring. Casey Blake’s smooth transition to the outfield probably plays a part in this decision as well; from what I saw yesterday, he looked pretty good in left field.

What part does defense play in this decision? Scott Elarton and Cliff Lee are fly-ball pitchers, so placing Sizemore in center, Crisp in left, and Blake in right probably helps them out. The “attitute and energy” probably favors Grady as well. I don’t know how much the team will credit Sizemore for his “intangibles,” but it’s kind of interesting that the younger player in the battle might win a spot because of them. The offense is firmly in Gonzalez’s favor; although Grady should eventually become a nice weapon at the plate, Juan is still the better hitter. Placing him behind Hafner and Martinez would be nice protection for the two third-year players, and would take some pressure off them as the league adjusts.

I personally think this uncertainty is due more to Sizemore’s positives than Gonzalez’s negatives. Yes, the hamstring injury was the event that put Juan’s roster spot in doubt, but without Sizemore, Juan probably makes the team anyway.

I’m pretty tired of season previews and player profiles right now (although I am working on my long-neglected prospect profiles), so I want to delve into organizational strategies again.

The buzzword among baseball television analysts in recent years has been “Moneyball”. To some it means geeks pounding away at keyboards in the Oakland front office. Whenever I’m bored enough to turn on “Baseball Tonight,” usually a Moneyball-related zinger gets thrown out by one of the many of their esteemed commentators that is really totally unrelated to the thesis of the book. Sometimes I hear backlashes on radio broadcasts, usually off-hand references to closers or strikeouts or even on-base precentage. It seems that the book has perpetuated a myth that continues to grow to this day; that Moneyball is all about statistics.

No, Moneyball is not about on-base percentage and strikeout-to-walk ratios. The Oakland A’s (much like the Indians are now) were in a situation where they didn’t have the resources to outbid teams for top performers, so they looked for areas where players were under-rated by the market. In the late 1990s, the most undervalued players were those who didn’t have high batting averages, but could take a walk. So GM Billy Beane picked up a lot of players who fit this profile at a discount rate. Guys like Matt Stairs and Olmaedo Saenz and John Jaha were picked up cheap, and rewarded Oakland with several good seasons. But over the past couple of years, the word’s gotten out, and these type of players aren’t as affordable as before.

What’s the moral of the story? It isn’t about OBP or whatever else is in vogue at the time; it’s about finding players who are undervalued by the market. In recent years, defense has become an undervalued commodity. More recently, the Indians seem to have concentrated on injured players as undervalued commodities; they have been among the most-lauded organizations as far as rehab is concerned, and judging by some recent triumphs (Jack Cressend, Bob Howry, etc), they have had some success in this area. They have used minor-league free agency well, grabbling guys like Casey Blake, Matt Miller, and Rafael Betancourt for peanuts. What they’ve done isn’t exactly what Beane did in Oakland, but the spirit seems to be the same; exploiting market inefficiencies to grab undervalued players. The Twins are probably one of the most stathead-phobic organizations around, but they do an excellent job in player development and scouting, which they use to their advantage. The Atlanta Braves have rode their tools-based philosophy to umpteen straight division titles. In other words, it isn’t about OBP or drafting college players per se; it’s identifying what you do best and using it as a competitive advantage.

But of course, your organization has to actually do something well in order to exploit it. If you run a small-market organization just like the Yankees, you won’t win because you can’t run your organization like the Yankees and have success. What works for some teams just won’t work for others. The Atlanta Braves probably wouldn’t be as successful if they went to a statistically-oriented player evaluation strategy. That’s why it’s possible to win in baseball despite the disparity in payrolls; teams do things differently. If you can structure your organization in a way that maximizes your chances of winning, whether that be by constructing a proprietary computer system or building a top-notch training staff, you can beat the big-money behemoths. You won’t win every time, but that sure beats trying hopelessly to win by emulating the same strategy as everyone else.

Placed OF Jody Gerut on the 15-day Disabled List (knee)

Because the Indians shouldn’t need a roster spot right away, they’re keeping their options open in case Gerut is ready to play sooner rather than later. If Jody is ready for action in late May, Mark Shapiro and Eric Wedge have some interesting decisions to make. If you count Grady Sizemore, the team would have six competent major-league ready outfielders on the roster, and only Gerut and Sizemore have options remaining.

[EDIT] Reader Alex pointed out that Coco Crisp also has an option remaining. Which means the decision becomes even more interesting if everyone’s healthy.

Speaking of options, I should have my options page up by the end of the week. Until then, here’s the players which (I believe) have options (along with the years) remaining:

Pitchers: Cliff Bartosh (1), Rafael Betancourt (1)*, Andrew Brown (2), Fernando Cabrera (2), Fausto Carmona (3), Francisco Cruceta (2), Jason Davis (1), Kyle Denney (3), Jake Dittler (3), Jeremy Guthrie (1), Cliff Lee (1), Matt Miller (1), Jason Stanford (1), Kazuhito Tadano (2), Brian Tallet (1)

Catchers: Josh Bard (1), Victor Martinez (1)

Infielders: Jhonny Peralta (1), Brandon Phillips (1)

Outfielders: Coco Crisp (1), Jody Gerut (1), Franklin Gutierrez (3), Grady Sizemore (2)

I’m a bit unsure about Betancourt, but the rest I’m fairly certain about.

Anyway, back to the assignments:

Optioned RHP Fernando Cabrera, RHP Francisco Cruceta, and RHP Kyle Denney to Buffalo (AAA)

Cabrera has had a horrid camp; more specifically, he hasn’t been able to throw strikes. Lack of control is the last thing you want a reliever to have, so he’ll go back to Buffalo and work on his mechanics. Cruceta and Denney are probably among the top starter options should there be a need sometime this season.

Assigned C Ryan Garko, RHP Kenny Rayborn, and RHP Jake Robbins to minor-league camp

Garko, along with Franklin Gutierrez, has impressed the Indians the most this spring. Ryan is still a catcher, though that may be subject to change as the year progresses. If someone like Jose Hernandez has to go on the DL, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Garko recalled to serve as a platoon first baseman. Rayborn and Robbins are both veteren minor-leaguers; Robbins probably has the better shot of a call-up.

Yesterday Roberto Alomar announced his retirement from baseball. For me, Alomar retiring before the 2005 is kind of a shock remembering how good he was in his three-year stint with the Indians. The season he had in 1999 ranks right up there with Albert Belle’s 1995 as the best individual season I’ve seen an Indians player have. Here’s his line in 1999:

563 AB, .323/.422/.533, 40 2B, 24 HR, 120 RBI, 37 SB, 6 CS

He finished third in the MVP balloting that year behind Ivan Rodriguez and Pedro Martinez (Manny Ramirez finished fourth). Those are impressive numbers at any position, but doing it as a second baseman is incredible. And, lest I forget, he won his 8th (out of an eventual 10) Gold Glove that year. Along with Omar Vizquel, Alomar formed the best double-play combination I’ve seen in my 20 years of watching baseball.

In 2001, Alomar finished 4th in MVP balloting, then fell off the face of the earth. I have no explanation as to Alomar’s freefall, and no I don’t think the trade had much of anything to do with it. Middle infielders tend not to age gracefully, but what happend to Alomar defies explanation. I guess you could compare Alomar’s career to that of Carlos Baerga, but even that really isn’t a good comp; Baerga was never that good a fielder, and Alomar was a much more patient hitter that Carlos was (and still is). The only parallels were that both were Indians, and both were dealt at exactly the right time. And both were traded to the New York Mets. My best guess is that he physically broke down all at once, including his reflexes and vision.

In my mind Alomar is as sure-fire a Hall of Famer as you can get. Assuming the writers look past the spitting incident and Roberto’s other flaws (which is a big assumption, considering who votes for the Hall), I don’t see how anyone can not vote for him based strictly on his playing career. He was the best second baseman of his era, he was a key contributor on two World Series champions, won 10 Gold Gloves, will finish with over 2700 hits, 1100 RBIs, finished in the MVP voting 5 times, was a 12-time All-Star, and finished his career with a .300/.371/.443 line. If Ryne Sandberg’s in (and deservedly so), Roberto Alomar should definitely be in.

Optioned RHP Andrew Brown and OF Franklin Gutierrez to Buffalo (AAA)

It’s been almost a year since Milton Bradley was traded to the Dodgers, and the rewards are close to being realized. Brown and Gutierrez both had tremendous springs, but need more seasoning at the AAA level (and maybe a little at the AA level for Gutierrez). Brown has been coverted to a relief pitcher, and may move quicker than Gutierrez, who has to polish his swing and contend with an organizational surplus of outfielders. Brown has great stuff, but needs to fine-tune his command to make it to Cleveland. Nevertheless, both have good shots at seeing action some time this season.

Denny Stark had been impressive so far this spring; he probably wasn’t going to win a spot, but could have been among the early-season callups. Then this happened. He allowed 10 runs in 1.2 innings, and gave up two home runs (including one to pitcher Mike Hampton). Brian Tallet pitched well again, throwing two shutout innings; I’ve never been that impressed with Tallet even before the elbow injury, but he’s left-handed, so he may work his way into a bullpen job down the road. And Juan Gonzalez played, which is always a good thing; at this point, Juan can’t have another setback, or he’ll probably be gone (no pun intended).

Don’t miss the outstanding Indians preview from Baseball Think Factory’s Matthew Rich. In the preview is included an interview with assistant GM Chris Antonetti, and one of the questions involved the team’s willingness to sign injured players. Since injured players are going to be undervalued commodities, if you have a good rehab program, you can get a great return if the player recovers from an injury. If the team can build for itself a sort of niche as an organization that’s good at resurrecting careers, they might attract more of these types of players based just on their reputation.

Signed Manager Eric Wedge to a two-year extension (through 2007)

It’s been two seasons since Eric Wedge became manager, and I still can’t pidgeon-hole him. He isn’t a true over-the-top firebrand like Larry Bowa, but he’s an intense guy. He spends most of the winter in the front office consulting about player moves. From what I can tell, he gets along extremely well with Shapiro, and everyone in the clubhouse not named Milton Bradley. He’s been judicious with young pitching, especially during the 2003 season. He was willing to be patient with young players. These things can obviously change, but two years is a long time to hide a flaw. His handling of the Bradley incident was exceptional; he showed a lot more restraint than I would have given the comments aimed at him after the trade.

But is he a good manager? The jury’s still out. Until now, he hasn’t been given enough ammunition to win with. Now, with the team a legitimate threat to win the division, we’ll be able to answer that question.

Signed everyone else on the staff through 2006

This includes pitching coach Carl Willis, hitting coach Eddie Murray, third base coach Joel Skinner, first base coach Jeff Datz, bench coach Buddy Bell, bullpen coach Luis Isaac, and bullpen catcher Dan Williams. I like what Murray’s done with the young hitters, and I’m not sold on Carl Willis yet. The others? Well, Luis Isaac has been in the organization forever, and the other guys seem to be doing a good job; I mean, how do you judge how well a first base coach does his job (and self-defense skills when in Chicago don’t count)?

Tomorrow is the trifecta; St. Patrick’s Day, the NCAA tournament, and the last day before Spring Break. I predict a massive flu outbreak.

First of all, allow me to comment on the NCAA tournament.

As someone who’s seen a lot of MAC basketball games, I’m pretty ticked that the league didn’t get an at-large team in the tournament. I guess the problem is that the league is so balanced that no team tends to stand out, but the selection committee has stiffed the conference for so long it’s getting a bit comical. I’d probably take Miami-Ohio over Buffalo, but I really thought one of them would get in. Four teams (Miami, Buffalo, Ohio, and Kent) finished in the top 40 in RPI; Miami was the only school in the RPI top 30 not to make the tournament. Because the MAC is recognized as one of the better conferences in the country, no big program wants to play a MAC school on their home court. The MAC did get four teams into the NIT, but that’s little solace for a conference that frankly deserved another NCAA bid.

Ok, rant over. Now for five guys that didn’t make my prospect list, but are worth watching. Even with these mentions, I could feel comfortable mentioning 5-7 more, that’s how deep the system is right now.

SS Brandon Pinckney
12th round, 2003 draft

Listed at 165 pounds, the David Eckstein comparisions seems apt. The Indians needed a shortstop in Akron last year, so they promoted Brandon all the way from Lake County; he responded by posting a .311/.388/.355 line, which is pretty good considering he had more at bats in rookie ball (257) than in Low-A ball (172) at the time. I still don’t think his ceiling is that high, but he could make a nice utility player eventually. I would guess he starts the season in Akron.

RHP Kyle Denney
26th round, 1999

I’ve been banging the drum for him awhile, but Denney has gotten the Indians’ full attention with a pretty good spring thus far. In his 5-year minor-league career, he’s struck out 8.36 per 9 innings, and allowed 8.12 hits per 9 innings. He’s going to be 28 this season, but he still deserves a shot at some point this year. And it looks like he’ll get it, given the team kept him on the 40-man roster last winter. He’ll start the year in Buffalo’s rotation.

LHP Scott Lewis
3rd round, 2004

This is a projection pick, but the upside is there for Scott Lewis. The Ohio State product was injured much of 2004 (Tommy John surgery), but was dominant in 2003, striking out 127 in 83.2 IP for the Buckeyes. I’d guess he’d start in Lake County, so check him out this season if you’re in the area.

RHP Tom Mastny
11th round, 2003 (Toronto)

He just turned 24, and he’s only made it to the South Atlantic League, but he was so dominant in 2004 that I almost have to include him here. By all accounts his stuff isn’t overpowering, but he someone who can prove himself every step of the way like Kyle Denney and make the majors. I’d guess Kinston as this year’s destination for Mastny, or possibly Akron. He came in the John McDonald trade.

OF Mike Butia
5th round, 2004

There’s a lot to like about Butia, who has good power, pretty decent speed, and is a good defender. Thanks to a backlog of outfielders ahead of him in the organziation, Butia might be stuck in Lake County much of next year, much like Ryan Goleski was in 2004. He was the first position player taken by the Indians in the 2004 draft.

Others worthy: 3B Matt Whitney, LHP Mariano Gomez, RHP Sean Smith, RHP Dan Denham, LHP Chuck Lofgren, C Wyatt Toregas, 2B Joe Inglett

Transactions

Assigned LHP Billy Traber, LHP Mariano Gomez, C David Wallace, and OF Darnell McDonald to minor-league camp

Traber isn’t ready to pitch in game situations yet, so he’ll continue to rehab in minor-league camp. Traber might be ready by the end of this season.

I’ve placed my unscientific, unreliable, and unconscionable prospect list to the right. I’ll be tracking the players as they advance through the system, so I figured the promising players needed a place of their own. Of course, Adam Miller has fallen to the first annual Compendium Curse, and has been shut down until early summer. There are a couple players that didn’t make it that I feel are interesting enough to keep an eye on, so I’m probably going to mention them in the next couple of weeks. Yes, I could have just expanded my list to 30 (or more), but I’d rather keep the list shorter. I’ll also profile the 20 that did make the list during March.

My next projects are revamping the Options and Depth Chart pages. I’d like to convert them to HTML once and for all, removing the hideous Word format once and for all from my site. If you’ve recently come across this blog, well, count yourself lucky, because you might have seen this had you found me in 2002.

And a Juan Gonzalez injury. It’s the dreaded hamstring strain this time. Hamstrings aren’t the type of injury that just goes away; especially in baseball, a player is one change of direction away from injuring it further. Combine that with Gonzalez’s injury history, and you have a big blow to Juan making the club.

Grady Sizemore is next in line, and he’s been playing well enough to make the club. As far as I’m concerned he’s ready for the majors now. Having Sizemore in center strengthens the outfield defense, but you obviously would lose a lot of power in the lineup. But Sizemore does have some pop; for what it’s worth, Baseball Prospectus really likes Sizemore in 2005, projecting a .285/.358/.447 line for Grady (projected 356 at-bats). He might be a better leadoff option than Coco Crisp down the road, but hitting him second in the lineup against right-handers would be a great spot for him this year.

With Sizemore in the lineup, here’s the 2005 baseball ages of the projected starters:

Coco Crisp – 25
Grady Sizemore – 22
Victor Martinez – 26
Travis Hafner 28
Casey Blake – 31
Ben Broussard – 28
Ronnie Belliard – 30
Aaron Boone – 32
Jhonny Peralta – 23

That’s a pretty young lineup. Not as young as the lineup in 2003, when at times the team ran 9 rookies out there every day. But for a team that scored 858 runs last year, that’s young. That’s what’s so promising about this team; not that they were successful last year, but that there’s still room for improvement based on how young the lineup is.

Of course, Gonzalez could still recover from the hammy and accumulate 400 or so at-bats. But right now, I think that’s wishful thinking, especially given what’s happened in the past three seasons. So let the Grady Sizemore era begin.

The Bench

It’s kind of weird to say this about a team with one of the lower payrolls in baseball, but the Indians might have the best bench in the game.

BUYS

C Josh Bard
2004 WARP: 0.6

Bard’s absence due to various injuries lead the Indians to keep Tim Laker on the roster all last year. Predictably, Eric Wedge ran Victor Martinez into the ground rather than sit him in favor of Laker. Now that Bard is back, Laker’s been banished to Tampa, and the Indians have a credible option at backup catcher. Bard will probably be trade bait as he becomes more expensive, but for the next couple seasons he should be one of the best backups in the business.

OF Ryan Ludwick
2004 WARP: 0.1

A Rangers fan I know termed Ludwick a right-handed version of Todd Hollandsworth after he was dealt for Ricardo Rodriguez in 2002. That prediction looks pretty accurate. Ludwick still should be able to play center field, at least according to early reports out of Spring Training. Because he’s out of options, he’ll be a bench player, providing some right-handed pop in the late innings.

HOLDS

IF Jose Hernandez
2004 WARP: 3.4

The right half of Los Angeles’ 2004 second base platoon, Hernandez will be playing more of a utility role for the Indians. Jose can play all over the field, but his bat is what will get him into the lineup. Another nice late-inning option.

SELLS

IF Alex Cora
2004 WARP: 4.8

Cora’s 2004 was in most respects a career year. He posted a career high in home runs (10), although they seem to have come at the expense of doubles (9). That’s a weird combination considering the park where he played, so I’m betting that ratio won’t hold this year. He’s a perfect fit with Ronnie Belliard; he’s the better defensive player, and he’s a left-handed hitter. He could also fill in at shortstop for a month or so if need be.