2000s

The Stage is Set



The Twins come into town tonight for a huge three game series. The Indians could be in a tie for first place by the end of the weekend.



Would I in my wildest dreams imagine I’d be saying this in the middle of August? Hell no. I thought I’d be continuing to hold out hope that the Indians would contend in 2005, that the upcoming offseason would be the first time since 2001 that the Indians as an organization would act as a contender. I thought the development of minor league prospects such as Michael Aubrey and Franklin Gutierrez would be the highlight of the season for the Indians. I thought….



I thought wrong. The team is contending in August. They are hitting the bejeezus out of the ball, and seemed to have found a combination in the bullpen that works. If you had told me at the beginning of the season that Jake Westbrook, Scott Elarton, and Chad Durbin were in the starting rotation, I would immediately start to envision a 100 loss team. But that’s how baseball works sometimes; you can envision the end, but cannot predict the means to get there. As I said on Monday, this team is outscoring everyone in baseball, including the Yankees, Rangers, Red Sox, and even the Rockies. That’s an astounding turnaround from last year’s offensive ineptitude.



You’ve Come a Long Way, Baby



What’s even more astounding is the fact that the team making a run for the playoffs in 2004 is a completely different team than the 2001 Central champs. In fact, of the players currently on the 40-man roster, only these players were in the organization in 2001:

• Josh Bard (2001 trade)
• Fernando Cabrera (1999 Draft)
• Jason Davis (1999 Draft)
• Jody Gerut (2001 trade)
• Mariano Gomez (Signed in 1999)
• Tim Laker (Signed in 2000)
• Victor Martinez (Signed in 1996)
• John McDonald (Drafted in 1996)
• Jhonny Peralta (Signed in 1999)
• David Riske (Drafted in 1996)
• CC Sabathia (Drafted in 1998)
• Jason Stanford (Signed in 1999)
• Corey Smith (Drafted in 2000)
• Brian Tallet (Drafted in 2000)
• Omar Vizquel (1993 trade)
• Jake Westbrook (2000 trade)
• Bob Wickman (2000 trade)

Of those 17, only 7 spent time in the majors in 2001, and only 4 (Wickman, Sabathia, Vizquel, Riske) were on the postseason roster. That’s an extremely quick rebuild.

A Cautionary Tale and a Tease

For a dose of reality, you need look only as far as last night’s opponents, the Toronto Blue Jays. In 2003, they were the team on the rise, a team with a great offense but suspect pitching. Now, after injuries and regressions, the Jays are one of the worst teams in the American League. What happened to them, and how can the Indians avoid a similar fate? I’ll tackle that tomorrow.

Promoted OF JJ Sherrill to Akron (AA) from Kinston (A+)



Sherrill at this point is an organizational guy, and was moved up to Akron for two reasons; to play center field while Franklin Gutierrez is on the shelf, and to make room in Kinston for Brad Snyder to play every day.



4 Games Out; 3.5 Games Out



The next two weeks should tell us once and for all whether the Indians are contenders or pretenders. After two more games with the Blue Jays, the Tribe plays the Minnesota Twins the next 6 out of 9 games. If my math is correct, they’ll only face Brad Radke once and miss Johan Santana altogether in those two series. That’s a huge break.



Although I’m less optimistic about the Wild Card, the Indians are closer to the Angels/Red Sox/Rangers than they are to the Twins. Sandwiched between the two Twins series is a trip to Arlington to face the Rangers, so they can make up ground against at least one of the wild card teams there.



A Critical Analysis: The Offense



Make no mistake about it; the major reason for the Indians being where they are this year is their offense. How did this offense go from the second worst in the AL last year to the best in the majors this year?



1. Everyone’s been healthy. Matt Lawton, Travis Hafner, and Omar Vizquel were all hurt at some point last year, and all haven’t gone on the DL at all.



2. Breakout seasons from Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez. Travis Hafner has been one of the best 5 hitters in the American League, and Victor Martinez has established himself as one of baseball’s best offensive catchers. The team didn’t have anyone to hit in the middle of the order when the season began, but now it has two legitimate run producers.



3. Progress from Casey Blake. Blake, the Indians’ most consistent hitter in 2003, has had a better season this year, hitting .280/.361/.482. Last year he hit .257/.312/411.



4. The unexpected contributions from Ronnie Belliard and Lou Merloni. Merloni, placed at first base versus left-handers because there were no other options, has hit southpaws to a tune of .356/.409/.577. Considering all the left-handers the AL Central throws at you, he’s been a godsend. Belliard has also mashed left-handers, and has been a huge upgrade over Brandon Phillips last year.



5. Rebounds from Matt Lawton and Omar Vizquel. Lawton, although he’s cooled off of late, is still hitting .290/.363/.452, which you’ll definitely take. Omar Vizquel is having one of the best offensive season of his career, hitting .298/.361/402.



6. The team gets on base. The Indians as a team get on base at a .357 clip, best in baseball.



To summarize, the Indians have gotten really lucky with some players, while their patience with others (Hafner, Martinez, Blake) has paid off. Hopefully Mark Shapiro realizes that simply keeping the same cast of characters next year is not going to guarentee a better result. The offense still needs another big bat in the lineup; a right-handed right fielder or first baseman with power would look real nice in between Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez next year.

Designated OF Alex Escobar (AAA) for Assignment



This is a calculated risk by the Indians. Escobar is out for the year with a broken foot, and the front office is gambling that no one will claim him because of it. 40-man roster spots are pretty valuable right now, so it’s hard to justify claiming a player who’s not going to play the rest of the season. That being said, if a team like Kansas City, who don’t have a lot of outfielders to begin with, wanted to take a chance on him, what do they have to lose? This isn’t Chris Magruder we’re talking about, either; Escobar, as bad as he’s played, still is a tremendous talent, and that upside is probably going to be too tempting for the other 29 clubs to pass on him. I think he’s gone.



Optioned RHP Kazuhito Tadano to Buffalo (AAA)



This has nothing to do with the way Tadano has pitched in Cleveland; unfortunately, he was the only pitcher in the bullpen with options. I’m assuming Rick White will be the longman for now, but only going with 6 pitchers in the bullpen for 3 weeks is another calculated risk that the Indians are taking.

Demoted RHRP Scott Roehl to Mahoning Valley (SSA) from Lake County (A-)



Traded 1B Eric Crozier (AAA) to the Toronto Blue Jays for 1B/C Josh Phelps



Interesting move from the Toronto end. Phelps has massive power potential (think a right-handed Russ Branyan), but cannot hit right-handers to save his life. I don’t understand the rush to get him out of town, but I’ll certainly take him. This move allows Phelps to platoon with Ben Broussard, and turns lefty-masher Lou Merloni into a super-sub. As for Eric Crozier, this gives the Jays a small insurance policy in case Carlos Delgado leaves via free agency. I think he can be a decent major-league player, and he’ll probably get an extended look in Toronto.



Eric Wedge now has a wealth of lineup options to choose from. For example, he could go with this against left-handers:



2B Ronnie Belliard

SS Omar Vizquel

RF Matt Lawton

CA Victor Martinez

DH Travis Hafner

3B Lou Merloni/Casey Blake

1B Josh Phelps

LF Coco Crisp

CF Grady Sizemore



and this against right-handers:



LF Matt Lawton

SS Omar Vizquel

DH Travis Hafner

CA Victor Martinez

1B Ben Broussard

3B Casey Blake

2B Ronnie Belliard

RF Jody Gerut

CF Grady Sizemore



Things get even more interesting when Aaron Boone and Ryan Ludwick come back.

Prospect Review – Andrew Brown

Continuing with my look at Akron prospects:



RHSP Andrew Brown

Age: 24 (Born 2-17-1981)

Roster Status: On 40-Man Roster

2004 Stats: (AA) 40.1 IP, 4.02 ERA, 58 SO, 14 BB (Jacksonville)

(AA) 50.1 IP, 5.19 ERA, 52 SO, 28 BB (Akron)

Ranked #20 in Los Angeles’ organization by Baseball America



The second player received for Milton Bradley, Brown has eye-popping stuff, as evidenced by his strikeout ratios, but has battled both injury and wildness over this season. He’s already on the 40-man roster, so the Indians aren’t going to rush him; he’ll probably finish the year in Akron, and go to Buffalo in 2005. I’d really like the Indians to give Andrew every opportunity possible to show he can start; he has a blazing fastball along with a couple good breaking pitches, a combination that should be good enough to get batters out multiple times in a game.

Promoted OF Brad Snyder to Kinston (A+) from Lake County (A-)



With the success of Michael Aubrey and Ryan Garko this year, 2003 first round pick Brad Snyder has quietly put up pretty good numbers in his first full professional season. He’s not as accomplished offensively as Aubrey or Garko, but he plays, at least for now, at a more valuable position. I don’t think he’ll shoot through the system that fast, but he’s someone to keep an eye on.



Promoted OF Juan Valdes to Lake County (A-) from Burlington (R-)



Valdes was also selected in the 2003 draft (5th round), and is a toolsy outfielder with upside. He’s really young to be playing in Lake County (he just turned 19), so I’m expecting some initial struggles the rest of this year, but then again, he was a bit too young for an Advanced Rookie League as well. His numbers from Burlington:



134 AB, .269/.364/.381, 4 2B, 4 3B, 1 HR, 21 SB, 3 CS

Traded LHSP Jeriome Robertson to the Montreal Expos for LHRP Pierre-Luc Marceau (A+)



Ugh.



Marceau looks like an organizational guy, judging by his age (23) and the fact that he’s put up barely adequate numbers over his professional career. Obviously the Indians had no leverage here, as the Expos could have simply claimed Robertson off waivers. Regardless, losing Robertson for essentially nothing really annoys me.



Trading Rule 5 picks such as Willy Taveras is something I have no problem with; a team simply can’t keep all their prospects and expect to win at the major-league level. Eventually you have to acquire major-league talent, and one of the best ways to do that in a medium-sized market is to trade your excess minor-league talent for it. Now obviously if you remember the situation, the Indians were looking for some starting pitching depth at the time, and with Houston being one of the few teams that supposedly had a spare starter, they made a great trade partner, especially when they couldn’t keep Taveras on their roster.

However, when the Indians make these kind of deals in the future, they have to do a better job identifying their major-league talent. That’s all I’m asking. I don’t want the Indians to stockpile marginal Rule 5 eligibles on their 40-man roster just because they’ve been burned with Taveras; you can’t win that way. They just have to do a better job scouting the players they receive in return.

Hitting Streak



IF/OF Argenis Reyes has put together an impressive 23-game hitting streak for Mahoning Valley, and it doesn’t look like he’s slowing down; he went 4-5 tonight for the Scrappers. So far this year, he’s hitting .314/.348/.355. Argenis turns 22 after the season, so he’s not on any prospect list, but still that’s quite an accomplishment.

A Seller’s Market



The Indians didn’t make any moves to bring in a veteren player, and judging by the trades made over the weekend, it’s probably a good thing they didn’t. Listening to Antonetti and Wedge before Saturday’s game lead me to believe that some clubs *cough*Seattle*cough* were asking the moon and the stars for bit players. No thanks. On the other end, there were some rumblings that the Marlins were interested in Matt Lawton. Unfortunately, they were only willing to deal prospects. If they had been willing to part with Brad Penny, I’d deal Lawton. But trading Matt for prospects right now would be a bad move. Number one, there’s no one in the minors to remotely replace his production (Alex Escobar is out for the year, and Ryan Ludwick is still in Buffalo getting to playing shape). Number two, it would probably turn off a lot of fans who had been getting interested in the team (Remember when Colon was traded?).



The bottom line is this; the Indians are on the periphery of contention. But is the chance of winning the division now worth giving up players that might help the 2005 or 2006 clubs? You’ll probably get a different response from just about every Tribe fan out there, but in Shapiro’s case, he’s being consistent. When the Indians blew the team up in 2002, he talked about 2005 being the year the Indians would be “back”, and that the team was being built so that a full-out rebuilding process wouldn’t have to happen for a long time.



Of course it goes without saying that this year’s team could still win the division; it’s very possible. But would you give up Grady Sizemore for Mike Myers? Adam Miller for Victor Zambrano? Travis Hafner and Jake Westbrook for Guillemo Mota and Paul Lo Duca? Those were the equivalents off what the Indians would have given up had they made those deals. It was definitely a seller’s market yesterday; the Indians, if they have the money they say they have, should make their moves in the offseason when it will be much more buyer-friendly.

Prospect Review – Michael Aubrey and Franklin Gutierrez

 

Moving onto Akron, where you’ll generally find the highest concentration of prospects. Since Sizemore’s promotion to Cleveland, these two are the #1 and #2 prospects in the organization, in no particular order.

 

1B Michael Aubrey

Age: 22 (Born 4-15-1982)

Roster Status: Off 40-Man Roster

Rule 5: Not Eligible (Drafted in 2003)

2004 Stats: (AA) 58 AB, .259/.357/.345, 2 2B, 1 HR

                  (A+) 218 AB, .339/.438/.550, 14 2B, 10 HR

 

The Indians got Aubrey with the 11th pick of the 2003 draft, and so far he looks like a steal. The Indians knew they were getting a polished hitter when they picked him, but his power production thus far has exceeded expectations. He walked (27) more times than he struck out (26) in Kinston. The fact that he slugged .550 on top of that is a real promising sign. Currently on the shelf because of a hamstring injury, which is the only thing to slow Aubrey down thus far. Depending on where you look, Aubrey will be the Indians’ #1 prospect next year, and could make a couple overall top 10 lists.

 

OF Franklin Gutierrez

Age: 21 (Born 2-21-1983)

Roster Status: Off 40-Man Roster

Rule 5: Eligible (Signed in 2001)

2004 Stats: (AA) 249 AB, .309/.377/.478, 23 2B, 5 HR

 

Gutierrez was the first player received in the Milton Bradley trade this April, and his ceiling is pretty high. That being said, he’s more of a projection type of prospect at this time, as evidenced by all his doubles (doubles generally turn into home runs as a prospect gets older). He’ll probably move a bit slower than Grady Sizemore did, mostly due to his strikeout totals (72 in 249 ABs). Still, some scouts have been whispering Juan Gonzalez’s name when talking about Gutierrez, and that would be more than OK with me. Baseball America might rate him in the top 20 or so when their prospect rankings come out this winter. I think Aubrey’s a more sure bet than Gutierrez, but a right-handed power bat who can play center field is something you can’t ignore. Unfortunately, Franklin is currently down with an injured elbow, which could sideline him for at least the next 3-4 weeks.