Ryan

Over the first couple months of the season, you’ve probably listened to the radio or TV and heard that the Indians have the worst or one of the worst defenses in the American League. The question is, what is the criteria for determining the “worst” defense? Turns that today’s standard is simply the number of errors a team has committed, or sometimes people use team fielding percentage.

Personally, I think this measure is inadequate. This is like determining the best offense in the league by using only team batting average; you don’t get the whole picture. In the case of defense, making the routine play is one facet of a good defense, but making plays that the average fielder won’t make is a mostly untapped measure. One of my favorite team defensive measures is “Team Defensive Efficiency,” which you can view at Baseball Prospectus. It is simply the percentage of balls in play that become outs; there’s no scorekeeper bias at work here. It includes both “errors” and “hits.” And lo and behold, the Indians are 4th in the American League in this measure at .7105 (the league average is .6974).

What does this mean? First of all, it means that errors don’t tell the entire story; while of course you should make the routine play, making the “unroutine” plays should also be part of the defensive picture. Secondly, range does matter; to illustrate this point, imagine two shortstops. Shortstop A has a limited range, but makes the routine plays, while shortstop B has a very good range while making some errors.

Shortstop A:
2 Errors
3 “Unroutine” plays

Shortstop B:
10 Errors
15 “Unroutine” plays

Which is the more valuable shortstop? If you just used fielding percentages, it would be Shortstop A. But you aren’t looking at the entire picture. Now this example is a very simple one, but extrapolate this to an entire team, and you’ll see why judging a team’s defense based solely on the number of errors it makes is a mistake. In 2004, the team finished second to last in the AL in defensive efficiency at .6855. The difference between this year and last is that the team is turning 5 more balls per hundred in play into outs than last season. That’s a sizable difference, especially considering the margin of error the team is dealing with in order to win games.

By the way, am I the only one who enjoys listening to TV broacasts sans John Sanders? Nothing against Sanders, but I think Rick Manning and Mike Hegan make for a much more interesting viewing experience.

One more thing: CC Sabathia = Calvin Pickering + 95 mph fastball.

Recalled RHP Matt Miller from Buffalo (AAA)

Matt, who was predictably dominating in his stint with the Bisons, should return to a matchup role. The only downside of this move is that the team doesn’t really have a longman, but at this point, the bullpen is rested enough so that guys like Betancourt and Riske should be able to go multiple innings. And Scott Elarton doesn’t pitch until the team gets back to Cleveland.

Optioned RHP Jason Davis to Buffalo (AAA)

JD will occupy the spot in the rotation left vacant by Jason Bere’s retirement. For those of you keeping score at home, the current Buffalo rotation is Brian Tallet, Jeremy Guthrie, Francisco Cruceta, Steve Watkins, and now Jason Davis. Apparently the team isn’t comfortable with making Davis a “future closer” just yet. The performance of Fernando Cabrera may have something to do with that, but first of all, Davis needs consistent work, which he wasn’t getting in Cleveland.

I don’t think it’s official just yet, but Coco Crisp may be out three months because of a possible torn ligament in his right thumb. Crisp’s absence means that Jody Gerut will probably be an everyday outfielder, at least until Juan Gonzalez is healthy again. Crisp had been one of the better offensive threats in the lineup, and his injury makes an already punchless lineup even worse.

The AAA level is an interesting one, in that young, promising prospects play with veterens on their last legs. Nowhere is that more evident than in Buffalo. Jason Bere, who has spent the past three seasons coming back from one arm injury after the other, recently retired after just three starts with the Bisons. The 33-year-old had little left; AAA hitters touched him up for 15 runs in just eight innings. You also have players like Ernie Young, who probably don’t have many opportunities left, but play anyway. Young is 35 years old, and the last time he made more than 100 plate appearances in the majors was 1996.

Then there’s the young prospects, who see Buffalo as the last obstacle in their paths to the majors. Fernando Cabrera, who got a cup of coffee with the Indians last year, seems to have put it all together in 2005; he’s cut down on his walks (3 in 21 innings), and if this were 2004, he’d already be in Cleveland. Andrew Brown, one half of the duo received for Milton Bradley, has had trouble adjusting to the bullpen thus far. Like Cabrera, Brown has been a starter his entire professional career, and made the switch to the bullpen once he reached the high minors. Ryan Garko, who has done nothing but hit since drafted in 2003, is on the cusp of the majors, but he has no set position; he was a catcher in college, but most think that he’ll be a first baseman or designated hitter in the majors. John Farrell, the Indians’ farm director, has said that Garko is one of the most polished offensive players he’s seen. “Pure bats,” or good offensive players without a position, tend to have a difficult time getting opportunities in the majors, and Ryan is already 24, but if he continues to hit, the Indians will have to shoehorn him onto their roster somehow.

Then there’s a group of players in their late 20s and early 30s who are running out of time to make a career for themselves. Jake Gautreau, the team’s third baseman, has had injuries derail his career so far. He’s hit well this season (.277/.323/.538), and given Aaron Boone’s struggles, he may get a shot soon. But many times, the call never comes, be it because of a veteren at the major-league level, or other circumstances. John Rodriguez, who had until this year spent his entire professional career in the Yankee organization probably knows all too well what can happen when the major-league club has little room for a young player. Rodriguez had a career year in 2004, hitting .294/.382/.542, but the Yankees had no need for him due to guys like Bernie Williams, Gary Sheffield, and Hideki Matsui in their outfield. Others in this boat include outfielder Andy Abad and Steve Watkins, a pitcher from the Padre organization.

There’s also a group of disappointments who have returned to Buffalo to figure something out, whether that be a swing or a delivery. Brandon Phillips, who in 2003 was tabbed the Indians’ next star player, hit an absymal .208/.242/.311 during his stint with the Indians, was sent down, and hasn’t received an extended opportunity since. Now Jhonny Peralta, who played with Phillips in 2004, is playing for the Indians at short, and Ronnie Belliard, picked up in 2004, has become the team’s second baseman. Phillips is no longer talked about as a future core player, but in Buffalo, there’s still an opportunity for a young player to get a second chance. Jeremy Guthrie, a former first round pick, is looking for his first extended shot in the bigs. His problem is twofold; he’s 26, and he hasn’t had any appreciable success in two full seasons. Much of his problems stem from an inability to throw strikes, but even moreso, it seems like his confidence is lacking. His ability shows through at times; in tonight’s start, Jeremy pitched 6.1 dominant innings, and more importantly, 61 of his 97 pitches were strikes. Perhaps some light in Guthrie’s head has flickered on, but he has lot of ground to make up.

As a team, the Bisons currently have the International League’s best record. But for the players, the wins are secondary achievement; all of them are looking either for just one more shot in the majors, or their first opportunity to prove that they belong in the big leagues.

Placed OF Coco Crisp on the 15-day Disabled List (thumb)

Coco injured his thumb trying to stretch a double into a triple in yesterday’s game. The injury came in the midst of a very good offensive stretch for Coco; he had been hitting .340/.426/.566 in May.

Recalled OF Jody Gerut from Buffalo (AAA)

Apparently, his knee is fine. Jody comes to Cleveland on an offensive tear; during his Buffalo rehab/option he hit .438/.518/.729. It should be interesting to hear what Gerut has to say after the game.

I like looking at things long-term, and I don’t like making drastic moves based on small sample sizes. Given the play of the Indians to this point, it’s really easy to go Shaw and rip the entire organization, calling for their removals. My previous attempt at humor aside, the long-term prospects of this team is still pretty good. Bob Wickman, Scott Elarton, Kevin Millwood, Jose Hernandez and Bob Howry are this year’s crop of free agents, and given that Millwood is going to test the market no matter how much the Indians offer, there’s no one there I’d recommend keeping for more than a team-friendly price.

But how are the Indians going to compete in the short-term? Well, there are a couple things I’d like to see happen, namely:

(1) Release Scott Elarton and call up Brian Tallet.

That Scott Elarton was one of the team’s best starters in the second half last year said more about the Indians’ rotation than it said about Scott. This season, he’s allowed 41 hits in 31 innings. That’s not good. Hitters are batting .325 so far this season, and half of his starts came against Kansas City and Seattle. Brian Tallet, a guy the Indians drafted in 2000 (the round after Corey Smith), is pitching very well in Buffalo, and he would slot easily into the rotation, as he pitched last night. I’m not rooting for an all-out implosion from Elarton to force the team’s hand, but I just think they’re wasting their time holding on to Elarton. It’s not like last year where the team had no good options to turn to; Tallet is just one of three legitimate alternatives (the others being Steve Watkins and Jason Davis) they could plug into the rotation.

(2) Call up Kaz Tadano and send Jason Davis to Buffalo

Until the Indians decide one way or the other if JD is a reliever or starter, he should be throwing regularly. That isn’t happening right now, and Davis is a guy who needs reps. I’d put him back into the rotation, but I’d be fine with having him set up Fernando Cabrera in the Bisons’ bullpen. At least this way he can get some consistent work in. Tadano has essentially been Buffalo’s long man, only getting one start, so he wouldn’t have to make much of an adjustment.

(3) Send Aaron Boone to Buffalo and call up Jody Gerut

You don’t like to send veterens down, but I really think this is in the best interest of the team. Boone is hitting an empty .147, if that’s possible. His OPS is an absurdly-low .476. While his defense has been as advertised, it certainly can’t make up for what he’s done at the plate. Maybe a fresh start, without the pressure, can help Aaron figure out what’s wrong his swing. Jody Gerut, once his knee has been declared sound, should probably be up in Cleveland. Will that mean he and Eddie Murray will get along? Probably not, but maybe he’ll give the Indians some production in right field.

(4) Platoon Casey Blake and Jose Hernandez at third until Boone returns

Wait? Aren’t both players right-handed? Yes, they are, but Blake doesn’t have standard platoon splits, and Jose Hernandez does. Blake, in his career, is hitting .257/.323/426 against right-handed pitching, and Jose Hernandez is hitting .262/.324/.490 against left-handers. Ben Broussard is in the midst of one of his hot streaks, so I’d try to run him out there as much as possible.

(5) Spot Josh Bard against right-handers more often

Victor Martinez as a right-handed hitter is an All-Star. Martinez as a left-hander looks like Tim Laker. Given that you have Josh Bard, who’s a halfway decent offensive catcher, it wouldn’t hurt to spot him against a tough right-hander, regardless of normal playing schedules. Also, when Martinez is in the lineup against a right-hander, move him down in the order, and move Broussard to the third spot in the order, at least until Victor starts to hit from the left side again.

So there you have it. Nothing dramatic, other than the release of Elarton, but at this point I think you’re stuck with what you’ve got.

To enhance your baseball-viewing pleasure, I’d like to introduce a new test that will allow you to safely miss an Indians game if other pressing needs arise. Just a simple few questions will determine whether today’s starter will merely humble Indian bats or bury them, dig them up, spit on them, and rebury them. Either way, you can be self-assured that you will not waste a second of your life watching a dreadful offensive performance. Of course, I make no promises that, if directed to watch the game, the offense will be merely awful or even slightly horrific. But I do promise that by using this simple scale, you can avoid watching a dreadful offensive showing. Now onto the scale:

1. Which word most closely describes today’s pitcher?

A. Crafty
B. Veteren
C. Inconsistent
D. Baseball Tee

2. How many years has today’s starter been in the majors?

A. 15+
B. 10-14
C. 5-9
D. >5

3. Is the starter:

A. Left-handed
B. Right-handed
C. Ambidextrous
D. Armless

4. Does the lineup have in it:

A. Aaron Boone and Casey Blake
B. Aaron Boone, but not Casey Blake
C. Casey Blake, but not Aaron Boone
D. Neither

For each “A” answer, add 25 points
For each “B” answer, add 15 points
For each “C” answer, add 5 points
For each “D” answer, add 0 points

If the pitcher received 0-25 points: The Indians have a chance to score 4 runs…celebrate!
If the pitcher received 26-50 points: Play a game of solitare while the team bats, looking up occasionally on the off-chance that the team gets a runner on base
If the pitcher received 51-75 points: Go ahead, go on that date! You might check the radio now and again, though; the team might win 1-0, you know.
If the pitcher received 76-100 points: I hear that a dentist appointment followed by an IRS audit is a great way to kill three hours….

On Saturday, I mentioned in passing that the Indians optioned Jody Gerut to Buffalo. The biggest issue with Jody, according to the team, is that he doesn’t currently have the mobility to play right field. According to Hal Lebowitz (sorry, no official link, although you can find a fan transcript here), Gerut is saying that he’s in Buffalo because the Indians don’t want him to be arbitration-eligible after the season. As it stands right now, Jody has just over 2 seasons’ worth of major-league service time. Arbitration kicks in automatically for players with three seasons of service time and a percentage of players between two and three years of service time. While Gerut does have a point, I doubt the Indians are keeping him in Buffalo for that reason alone, given the team’s offensive needs.

There are few people who would argue that the Indians don’t have a weak-hitting outfield. Coco Crisp, who is really a center fielder, is playing left field, and Casey Blake, who was formerly a third baseman, is playing right. Grady Sizemore is the only guy who really is a good offensive and defensive fit at his position. The team needs more punch at its corners, especially its corner outfielders. Blake (-2.1 VORP) is the biggest culprit, but Coco Crisp (.415 SLG) in my mind doesn’t provide enough power or on-base ability (.333) to be a legitimate left fielder.

Enter Gerut, and eventually, Juan Gonzalez. Both have at least some track records of offensive production, although in Gerut’s case that track record is based primarily off his 2003 season. Juan Gonzalez, when healthy, is a pretty good hitter. But for Juan, “when healthy” over the past couple of years has meant “almost never.” Gerut is obviously going to be ready sooner than Juan, but Gonzalez could be in Cleveland by the middle of June.

Unfortunately, it isn’t as simple as just bringing Gerut or Gonzalez up to Cleveland; someone has to go. Casey Blake was just extended over the offseason (a move that I didn’t like when it happened), Ryan Ludwick is out of options, and given the interest in Michael Restovich, the Indians aren’t getting him through waivers, and Aaron Boone can’t go to the minors without his consent. The Indians have about ten days to mull over what to do, and short of Boone agreeing quietly to go to Buffalo, whatever move they make will have some long-term consequences.

Then there’s Grady Sizemore, who has several options left. Of course he’s given the team no real reason to send him back, but thanks to baseball rules, he’s a likely candidate to lose out in the outfield shuffle. I think that barring a trade, Sizemore will get optioned, Crisp will go to center, Blake to left, and Gerut will return to his accustomed position in right field. And the Indians will still have two corner players hitting under the Mendoza line playing every day.

I guess tonight was supposed to be how the Indians were supposed to win this year.

In a matchup of 2004 All-Stars, Jake Westbrook was the better pitcher, although he would have been hard-pressed to be worse than his counterpart. Ted Lilly, who missed several weeks in Spring Training, was awful. He walked five, struck out one, and when he did get the ball over the plate, Tribe batters got him for three hits. Ben Broussard, who seems to thrive with the bases loaded, lined a well-placed double in the right field gap to clear the bases in the first inning, and the team didn’t trail again.

The rain came in the third inning, and given Lilly’s performance up to that point, it seemed the Jays had the advantage. When Jason Davis, who I think needs more consistent work, gave up a home run to Alex Rios (the second of his career) and a base hit to the next batter, I felt the game was slipping away. But JD settled down and retired the seven Blue Jays, and turned the ball over to the back end of the bullpen. Three innings and a Ryan Ludwick homer later, the Indians had won a surpisingly undramatic 6-4 contest.

A note on Bob Howry. He seems to be suffering from a bit of control issues, which looks to be stemming from his release point. During a shot of him warming in the bullpen, Luis Isaac was demonstrating how Bob should be finishing his delivery. Several times during his inning of work, it looked like he held onto the ball too long, and his pitch tailed down and away. It’s not a huge deal, but something to watch. I think David Riske will be getting more appearances in the eighth inning; he and Arthur Rhodes have been the most consistent arms out of a pretty consistent bullpen. Rhodes in particular has been excellent; his three-pitch strikeout of Corey Koskie tonight was exquisite.

I scratched my head when the lineup was posted. I understand that Ted Lilly is left-handed, but I don’t see the need to drop Ben Broussard that far down in the order, much less hit Jose Hernandez and Ryan Ludwick 4-5. Yes, they both had good games, but I sometimes think that tinkering has its limit.

Victor Martinez is a completely different hitter depending which batter’s box he’s in. Take this with a grain of small simple size salt, but Victor is hitting .375/.432/.594 right-handed and .152/.230/.215 left-handed. It kind of reminds me of Jose Valentin, who was a switch hitter in name only. The good news for Victor is that another left-handed pitcher (Gustavo Chacin) is toeing the mound tomorrow. The bad news is that it’s a day game after a night game, meaning Josh Bard will probably get the start. I guess this belies the work switch-hitters have to put in to maintain not one, but two batting stances.

Transactions

Reinstated Jody Gerut from the 15-day Disabled List; Optioned Him to Buffalo (AAA)

Jody was obviously not happy about the demotion, but the Indians are between a rock and a hard place right now. Jody’s mobility isn’t all the way back, and I don’t think the team wants to pull the trigger on a tough move without making 100% sure that Jody is capable of playing right field. Speaking of Buffalo, Brandon Phillips is back from the dead; he’s now hitting a more respectable .242/.301/.439. Whatever plate discipline he showed in 2004 seems to have gone away though; Brandon has whiffed 29 times to 10 walks. Mike Kinkade, who can play third base, would be a nice short-term fix if Boone does go to the minors. Besides his ability to get hit by pitches, he’s walked 11 times as opposed to 15 strikeouts. He’s slugging .495 for the Bisons.

Placed 1B Ryan Mulhern on the Disabled List (A+ – Jaw); Demoted IF Anthony Lunetta to Kinston (A+) from Akron (AA)

The converted outfielder literally took one on the chin in batting practice. That’s too bad, since the 2003 draft pick was off to a pretty good start (.307/.393/.594)

Placed SS Brandon Pinckney on the Disabled List (A+ – finger); Reinstated C Clayton McCullough from the Disabled List

Another literal bad break for a member of the K-Tribe. Pinckney, who had a breakout year in 2004, was hitting just .222/.250/.333, but nevertheless, losing a middle infielder isn’t a great thing for the organization give the dearth of prospects at short and second.

Placed RHP Travis Thompson on the Disabled List (AA – shoulder); Received RHP Kyle Evans from Extended Spring

Around the League…

The Chicago White Sox have now had the lead in every one of their games, shattering a major-league record. What’s even more amazing about their fast start is that they’ve been a below-average offensive club, hitting a collective .259/.325/.397. Now obviously their stellar rotation (3.09 ERA) has a lot to do with that, but over the long haul, I just can’t see them winning at the same pace with those numbers. But by the time they drift back to earth, their margin might be too much for the other teams in the division to overcome. Minnesota, probably the most balanced team in the division, is off to a pretty good 20-13 start, but they’re already 6 games behind the Sox. Amazing.

5-4 isn’t a bad record for a road trip, considering the places where the Indians had to play. The pitching was pretty decent, with some exceptions, and offense got incrementally better. Grady Sizemore and Jhonny Peralta, the two youngest members of the lineup, started to hit and (more importantly) hit for power; both players are now slugging above .400.

In my opinion, what’s really holding the offense back is the revolving door at the top of the order. Hell, the whole lineup has been a game of musical chairs, but the whole thing starts with the leadoff hitter. Frankly, there’s no one perfectly qualified for the spot right now, but I think Coco Crisp is the closest thing this team has to one. To that end, here’s my “set in stone” lineup:

LF Crisp
CF Sizemore
C Martinez
DH Hafner
RF Blake
1B Broussard
2B Belliard
3B Boone
SS Peralta

There’s speed at the top of the order, although the on-base skills are lacking. But beggers can’t be choosers. Casey Blake, second only to Travis Hafner as far as working counts is concerned, is hitting below .200, so just about anyone else there is an improvement. Well, there is Aaron Boone…

The Indians may have to make a difficult decision in the next couple of weeks. Jody Gerut, barring a setback, should be good to go in 7-10 days. He does have a couple options remaining (hat tip to reader Ron) , so the Indians can take the easy way out and simply option him to Buffalo until a spot opens up. Other candidates for demotion are Grady Sizemore and Ryan Ludwick; Grady has options remaining, while Ryan does not. There’s the possibility of Aaron Boone accepting an assignment, but I think that’s far-fetched. A couple readers have suggested this, but (a) I don’t think the team would even ask him, and (b) there’s very little chance he’d agree to go to the minors. Another option is to send down a pitcher, and go with an 11-man rotation. But I think carrying that many outfielders would mean that nobody would get consistent playing time, which is bad for all involved. These dilemmas tend to sort themselves out, but if a conveinient out doesn’t present itself, a tough decision will have to be made.

The Indians’ bullpen has quietly chugged along, keeping the Tribe in a lot of games. Because of the paucity of runs, the bullpen has really won a lot of games; I referenced the percentage of saves to wins last weekend, and since then, Wickman has saved game number nine. While it’s nice that Wickman has that many saves, it again belies the slim margins the team has to contend with to win games. I’ll stop beating that horse now.

Kevin Millwood has surprised me; not necessarily that he’s pitched well, but his velocity has really gotten my attention. He could be the signing of the offseason, especially considering what some of the other free agents have been doing:

VORP, 2004 Free Agent Pitchers

Kevin Millwood 10.8
Eric Milton -3.2
Matt Clement 9.3
Jon Lieber 15.0
Carl Pavano 0.0
Pedro Martinez 14.6
Jaret Wright -9.5
Brad Radke 8.6
Russ Ortiz 1.0
Derek Lowe 11.7
Paul Byrd 0.6

Ryan Garko is mashing again after a slow April. Ryan’s AAA line is now at .313/.387/.545 with a decent 19/11 SO/BB ratio. Ryan is really only a catcher or a first baseman given his physical ability, so third base is not an option. If Martinez, Hafner, or Broussard go on the DL, Ryan should be the first one called up. As of now, there’s no way to fit him on the roster. Also performing well is Fernando Cabrera; he seems to be over the control problems that plagued him in Spring Training (1 BB in 13.2 IP).

JD Martin, who had been off to a great start for the Aeros, has been placed on the DL with an elbow injury, but it doesn’t appear serious, according to Akron manager Torey Lovullo. Kyle Denney is on Buffalo’s DL with “right ulnar neuritis.” I’m no doctor, but I think that means he has some type of nerve inflammation in his right elbow. To take Kyle’s place, the Bisons received the zombie formerly known as Jason Bere.

The Options page should be updated soon.

Arlington has been a house of horrors for the Indians in the past couple of years. I don’t know if it’s just a bad place for Indians pitchers, or if the Rangers hitters have figured out something that the rest of the league hasn’t. That made last night’s victory a welcome sight. The Indians used a first-inning implosion by Pedro Astacio to build a seven run lead, and held on in the late innings to beat the Rangers 8-6.

Grady Sizemore made two defensive plays in the field: one good, and one outstanding. The “good” play came in the 7th, where he made a catch against the wall; the “oustanding” play occurred in 5th inning, when Grady took away a Gary Matthews home run. Cliff Lee, who was pitching, doffed his cap to Sizemore, and deservedly so. But the catch was more important than it seemed at the time; the Rangers were down 8-1 at the time, but from the 6th inning on, they scored 5 runs and forced Eric Wedge to bring in Bob Wickman to close things out.

Cliff Lee, whose stuff doesn’t really mesh with Arlington, pitched well enough, though he was the beneficiary of some fine defensive plays. Fellow flyball pitcher Scott Elarton pitches tonight, which doesn’t bode well for the Indians; Scott hasn’t won a road game in four years, and he’s pretty close to pitching himself off the roster.

I think a swap of Jason Davis and Kaz Tadano would be a good move for both parties. The Indians still don’t really know what to do with Davis, so I’d rather send him down to Buffalo and let him pitch regularly there until they figure out what his role is. Tadano, who has been the Bisons’ long-man, has held opposing batters to a .209 average, and has walked 5 in his 24.1 innings of work. Brian Tallet would be a nice replacement for Scott Elarton; he’s holding International League hitters to a .204 average.

By the way…Aaron Boone hit second in the order last night?!