Ryan

No, this isn’t a poll; it’s what the Indians have to deal with because of their offense.

The Indians are 10th in the AL in starting pitching and 3rd in relief pitching. They rank 6th in overall pitching. The boogeyman that was the bullpen seems to have been exorcised, but another one has taken his place, and this one resides in the team’s bats.

What does a bad offense do? It makes the margin of error for winning much smaller. A prime example took place during Tuesday’s win against the Twins. Joe Mays, who the Indians have historically owned, could have been forced out of the game multiple times. But he wasn’t, allowing the Twins to get to their bullpen, and keep the game close. Minnesota was one hit away from tying the game. Some times you can blow the game; remember a game a couple weeks back against the Angels? Bob Wickman didn’t really pitch poorly…but his one mistake (a leadoff walk) allowed Garret Anderson’s bloop hit to tie the game, and eventually lead to an Angels’ win.

An interesting (and crude) measure I like to look at is to see what percentage of a team’s wins come with saves. The Indians have 11 wins, and Wickman has saved 7 of them. Now, there are other teams with higher saves per win ratios (the Pirates’ Jose Mesa has saved every one of his team’s wins as of yesterday), but 7 saves out of 11 wins is an indicator of how “tough” the team’s wins have been.

On the other hand, BJ Ryan has only 5 saves; his team has 18 wins. The Marlins’ staff only has 3 saves among them; their team has won 15 games. Notice a trend? A bad offense can make winning games a lot tougher, and makes the pitching staff throw more high-leverage innings.

So, now that I’ve made a circuitous explanation as to why a bad offense isn’t conducive to winning baseball games, who are the culprits? Let’s take a look at the lineup’s VORP, along with their positional rank among AL players:

C Victor Martinez -.6 (23rd)
1B Ben Broussard 2.8 (9th)
2B Ronnie Belliard 6.7 (4th)
3B Jose Hernandez -1.9 (16th)
3B Aaron Boone -7.1 (Last out of 23)
SS Jhonny Peralta 1.4 (13th)
SS Alex Cora 1.5 (11th)
RF Casey Blake -.4 (13th)
CF Grady Sizemore 3.1 (9th)
LF Coco Crisp -2.6 (19th)
DH Travis Hafner 11.8 (3rd)

That’s an ugly sight. Essentially, Belliard and Hafner are the only two players hitting better than league-average, you have Broussard and Sizemore a bit below-average, and the rest are scraping the bottom of the list. Boone’s -7.1 VORP is astounding; only Jack Wilson has a higher negative VORP. Yes, some of these players (Victor Martinez, I’m looking at you) will bounce back. But some I’m not so sure of; Coco Crisp is a reach in left field even with his glove, and Casey Blake in right field was going to be average at best. What’s even more amazing is that this is the lineup that started Opening Day; no one’s (knock on wood) has gone on the disabled list as of yet.

So are there any reinforcements on the horizon? Yes. Jody Gerut is about two weeks from returning to the lineup, and he could add some punch to the lineup, pushing Coco Crisp or Grady Sizemore out of the lineup. There’s Juan Gonzalez but….no, just forget about him. Among the regulars in AAA, Jake Gautreau and Ernie Young are having good seasons thus far. Ryan Garko is also available, but you’d have to find somewhere he could play. However, other than Gerut, I think the Indians are pretty much stuck with what they presently have. The team just has to hope that Boone can shake off 15 months’ worth of rust, and that Victor can get hot.

Baseball is funny. Sometimes it can be agonizing, but at times it can seem so simple and beautiful.

Yes, the Indians beat a Royals team that looked just plain awful. But I guess you have to start somewhere. Zack Greinke is one of the game’s best young pitchers, and the Indians were patient, and started to the ball much they did last year; lots of doubles, taking pitches up the middle and the other way. Frankly, the Indians lineup isn’t built like earlier incarnations, but they can be successful if they stick to what they do best.

If you want to show a young player how to hit, you could do a lot worse than to show tape of Travis Hafner. The only thing Pronk hasn’t done thus far is to start hitting homers, but those will come. Victor Martinez, a notoriously slow starter, is looking much better at the plate. I don’t think Grady Sizemore is ready for the top of the order, but then again, Coco Crisp hasn’t been that much better.

During Thursday’s game, Detroit manager Alan Trammel walked Ben Broussard, the go-ahead run, to get to Aaron Boone in the eighth inning. That tells you all need to know about how awful Boone has been at the plate. Did Jim Thome have slumps this bad? Yes, I know we’re seeing a year’s worth of rust coming off Boone’s bat. Yes, I know Boone has been a maked improvement in the field. But a .130/.208/.319 line in the lineup every day is an enormous black hole, a singularity of offensive ineptness that seems to be sucking the offense from the players hitting around him.

If you haven’t been looking ahead to May, be prepared for some brutal stretches in the coming weeks. After the Indians are finished with Kansas City, they go on a 9-game road trip to Minnesota, Texas, and Los Angeles. Ick. During the month of May, the Indians play the Angels six times and the Twins eight times. All of which makes taking care of business at home very important. A 3-6 record at the Jake isn’t going to get it done.

CC Sabathia is looking very good. Granted, the lineup he faced tonight was barely International-League quality, but there were very few loud outs. When a pitcher is dominating, his outs are generally weak grounders, infield flies, and of course, strikeouts. Sabathia’s control wasn’t the greatest, but his stuff was excellent, as evidenced by all the weak outs coming from Royal bats.

Speaking of CC, check out the newly updated CC Hat Tribute at Mistake by the Lake. The Danny Ferry exhibit has me entertaining thoughts of constructing a baseball wing. Cory Snyder would obviously in the inaugural induction class, as would Jeff Manto and Chris Magruder.

Right now I’m working on the last two papers of my academic career. Boy does that feel good to say.

Finally, a word about the recently retired Paul Shuey. Paul had, when healthy, as good a pitching repetroire as any reliever in the game. But injuries literally cut Shuey’s career in half. He was the Indians’ first-round choice in 1992; a high-school shortstop from Michigan named Derek Jeter was taken by the Yankees four picks later. But he did make the majors, and was a key part of several playoff teams. Given recent history, I’d think he’ll stay with the organization in some capacity.

Well, it happened; the Indians have extended CC Sabathia through 2008. Think of the new deal as a two-year deal; Sabathia’s current contract, which runs through 2006, will be kept intact. The 2007-2008 portion of the contract pays Sabathia $17.75M plus incentives. Those two years are important, because they are “free agent” years.

The breakdown by year:

2005 – $5.20M
2006 – $7M (option picked up)
2007 – $8.75M (free agent year)
2008 – $9M (free agent year)

Sabathia can also earn incentives during the last three years of the contract, and can make as much as $11.75M in 2007 and 2008.

For the Indians, this is not only a good deal financially, but an important turning point in public perception of the franchise. While the team gave out long-term deals to Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, this deal is a much more important one because Sabathia would have been able to walk after the 2006 season. For a fan of a team who lost home-grown talent like Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez to free agency, today is a great day.

Numbers 15 and 16 on my list are both college sluggers.

16. 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
How Acquired: 2003 Draft (6th Round)
College: Nevada
ETA: 2007

Along with Pat Osborn, Kouzmanoff gives the Indians organization a pair of decent prospects at third base, an organizational black hole in recent years. Kouzmanoff had a fantastic year in his first season in a full-season league, although he posted those numbers at the age of 23. He’s starting this year in Kinston, but I’d like to see what he can do in Akron before the season’s over. He’s not going to be a star by any stretch of the imagination, but he does everything well enough. BA’s John Manuel pegs him as Casey Blake with less power.

15. OF Jason Cooper
How Acquired: 2002 Draft (3rd Round)
College: Stanford
ETA: 2006

After a great 2003 campaign split between Lake County and Kinston, the AA level proved difficult for Cooper, and thus far a return engagement hasn’t been good. A couple things are working against Jason. First of all, he’s at best a left fielder, thanks to a poor throwing arm. Secondly, there’s a lot of outfield competition in the organization, from Sizemore and Crisp in Cleveland to Gutierrez and Snyder in the high minors. He was left eligible for the Rule 5 draft, one of the better position players unprotected, but didn’t get picked. He’s a guy who has good power potential, but like a lot of power hitters has to be able to control the strike zone. So far in Akron, he hasn’t been able to do that, posting a poor 25:8 SO/BB ratio. His stock is falling rapidly in my opinion.

Posting will continue to be light for the next week or two. I’m graduating in mid-May, so I have a lot things to take care of in real life. Until then, I’ll try to drop by twice or thrice a week, which isn’t as often as I’d like, but circumstances mandate it.

The past three games have featured crushing losses, although of different variaties. At least the team has chosen multiple ways to lose, right? Thursday night’s loss to the Angels rates as the most bizarre of the three (Alex Cora playing left field?), although the formula of losing close games has remained the same. Most of the blame has to be laid at the feet of the offense. The lineup let Jarrod Washburn off the hook, and kept the Angels in the game. While Bob Wickman deserves some of the ire due to putting the leadoff batter on in the 9th, the game should not have been that tight to begin with. When an offense isn’t productive, little mistakes can mean the difference between victory and defeat. So far, the Indians have had to win the hard way, and that’s not an easy way to accumulate victories.

Profiles of Jason Cooper and Kevin Kouzmanoff should be up on Sunday.

George Steinbrenner is apparently angry at his teams’ 4-8 start:

Steinbrenner issued a statement after the game saying, “Enough is enough. I am bitterly disappointed as I’m sure all Yankee fans are by the lack of performance by our team. It is unbelievable to me that the highest-paid team in baseball would start the season in such a deep funk. They are not playing like true Yankees. They have the talent to win and they are not winning. I expect Joe Torre, his complete coaching staff and the team to turn this around.”

After the Yankees sweep the Devil Rays, this will die down. But it’s a bit amusing to hear the Big Stein complaining after only 12 games.

Reinstated LHSP CC Sabathia from the 15-day Disabled List

From the looks of his performance, Sabathia appears to be over his oblique strain. CC was consistently reaching the mid-90s with his fastball, and his control was excellent; he walked only one batter. Thus far, pitching doesn’t seem to be the weak link in the Indians’ chain. With the return of Sabathia, Jason Davis moves into the “6th starter” role, where he’ll relieve a starter who left early, or pitch multiple inning stretches during blowouts. This leaves one of the existing bullpen members out in the cold, and the winner is…..

Optioned RHP Matt Miller to Buffalo (AAA)

Unfortunately for Miller, he had an option remaining, so he gets sent to Buffalo. The ROOGY hasn’t been used too much in the first two weeks of the season, and although he’s sporting an ERA of 0.00, he’ll join folks like Fernando Cabrera, Andrew Brown, and Jake Robbins in the Bisons’ pen. Rafael Betancourt was the other possible demotee, but he’s been even better than Miller, not allowing a hit in his 7.2 IP thus far. I think he’s in a role where he can thrive as long as he’s not overused; he can give you 2 inning stretches once or twice a week. Of course, now that Jason Davis is now a part of the bullpen, he might only be asked to go an inning at a time, but the use caveat still should apply.

Time for a break from the major-leaguers, at least until they start playing like major-leaguers.

These two pitchers are both part of the Lake County rotation, although that’s where the similarities end.

18. LHP Dan Cevette
How Acquired: 2002 Draft (3rd Round)
High School: Elkland HS, Pennsylvania
ETA: 2008

Until this year, the Indians have kept Dan in mostly short-season leagues, waiting patiently for his frame to fill out and for him to learn how to pitch. Last year in Mahoning Valley, Cevette finally was able to control his pitches, and his stuff did the rest. Towards the end of the year he was promoted to Lake County, where he held his own. Cevette throws in the low 90s, but his best pitch is his curveball. The Indians are conservative with young arms, but I can realistically see Dan in Kinston by July if all goes well. There’s a lot of upside here.

17. RHP Justin Hoyman
How Acquired: 2004 Draft (2nd Round)
College: Florida
ETA: 2007

Hoyman is a polished pitcher, and I think the Indians probably slotted him too low by starting him in Lake County. Hoyman had an interesting journey to professional baseball; his community college shut down after the 9/11 attacks (because tourism revenue dried up), and he got a scholarship at the University of Florida. Before his junior season, he put on 30 pounds, which increased his velocity by about 5 mph. He pitched well in a tough conference, and was rated by The Hardball Times as the third best pitcher in the college baseball. He’s 23, so he has to move quickly. Not much upside, but he can be a decent starter in the majors. Hoyman’s calling card is a heavy sinker, so think of him as Jake Westbrook Lite.

Tonight’s lineup:

CF Coco Crisp
2B Ronnie Belliard
3B Jose Hernandez
C Victor Martinez
RF Casey Blake
1B Ben Broussard
DH Ryan Ludwick
SS Jhonny Peralta
CF Grady Sizemore

One of the main reasons Hafner is sitting is his history vs. Santana: 0-7, 5 K.

Regardless, this might get ugly given the Indians’ hitting woes and who’s on the mound.

Another data point for the Indians to refer to in their negotiations with CC Sabathia:

The Milwaukee Brewers have signed pitching ace Ben Sheets to a new four-year contract extension worth $38.5 million.

Sheets, 26, had signed a $6 million deal for 2005 in February, but left open the option of tearing it up and negotiating a new four-year deal or merely adding a three-year extension. The two sides agreed to tear up the old deal and sign a new extension through 2008

Like Sabathia, Sheets was under team control through 2006, so this deal is very relevant. Johan Santana’s deal was also made under similar circumstances; he’s receiving $40M over the next four seasons. As it is now, it’ll probably take about $9M a year to get Sabathia locked up through 2008. Is that a good investment? Well, $9M is a very large chunk of the current team payroll, and there’s the injury factors. But in today’s market, you’re going to pay at least $7-8M for decent starters, not to mention the price tag for top-of-the-rotation guys.

I say if you can lock up CC through 2008 for $34M or less, you do it. As you approach Sheets or Santana money…well, I’m glad I don’t have to make those types of decisions.