Ryan

What’s with the White Sox and former Indians? In the past 10 years, they’ve signed/traded for Herbert Perry, Albert Belle, Kenny Lofton, Mike Jackson, Sandy Alomar, Tony Pena, Roberto Alomar, Bartolo Colon…

And now it looks like they’re going to add Omar Vizquel to the list. Either Kenny Williams is a mind-reader, or the two parties were discussing money before they were allowed to. The good news is that if they do in fact sign Vizquel within the next couple weeks, the Indians get a “sandwich” pick after the first round and Chicago’s second round pick. If Chicago had picked a slot lower, the Indians would have received their first round pick instead of their second rounder.

For the Indians, it looks like their top two targets will be Armando Benitez and Matt Clement. It’s nice to see they’re at least starting with the best players available rather than waiting around for the leftovers, as in previous years. Benitez is probably more realistic than Clement at this time, but it might be interesting to see if Clement would prefer playing closer to home.

I’d like to clarify a couple points I’ve made in the past couple days regarding the 40-man roster and Traber.

There’s no possible way I or anyone who probably is reading this blog could trade places with any current General Manager and do a better job. You may think you can, but there is so much more to the position than just tactical moves. A good GM has to be an outstanding communicator, both with internal and external constituents. A good GM must accept the fact that he will be criticized by fans, the media, players, his relatives, his spiritual advisor, and his mail carrier. And stick to what he believes in spite of what they say.

Moreover, I’ve realized that in all positions with responsibility, decisions usually come down to risk management; defining what can go wrong, and how best to mitigate it. Every decision made by a manager involves risk, and no amount of due diligence is going to completely remove it from the equation. Field managers most often manage this way: for instance, they’ll choose the pitcher they feel has the best chance of not allowing a run in a certain situation. And of course risk-based management applies to general managers as well, but instead of managing players on the field, they manage a roster, or an organization, depending on which way you look at things.

This is why I’ve placed the 40-man roster so prominently on this website; it is the essence of an organization; a (to steal a line from current management) blueprint for future success. To an organization with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, it is especially important to manage this efficiently. Compounding these roster decisions are two other factors. First of all, the team has been set up to win this season, and to that end most add players via free agency. Secondly, the Indians have one of the better collections of young, major-league ready talent in baseball. The confluence of those two factors create sometimes conflicting priorities. If factor #1 would dictate you add a proven starter or a closer, factor #2 dictates you add a prospect that might help you in two years. That’s the dilemma facing the Indians this particular winter; the rebuilding is technically over, yet for a middle-market organization, reloading with young talent should never cease. While teams like the Yankees, and in this case, the Red Sox, don’t really need their 40-man rosters stocked with players that might help them in 2007, the Indians do. That’s why losing a player like Traber is so painful.

But conversely, the ultimate goal of any team is to win that year’s championship, and often this does not mesh with farm directors’ vision, or a prospect maven. You sometimes can have a young team that wins, but very rarely can you win with only youth. To this end, tough decisions have to made, and risks have to be taken. Traber was a pitcher GM Mark Shapiro thought he could sneak through waivers, because it’s been over a year since he’s pitched in a professional game, because he probably won’t be ready until at least the middle of the season, and because even if healthy he may not contribute much to a club with designs on making the playoffs, as past post-Tommy John timelines have shown. Because Boston had so many free agents, they were willing to take that risk, even as the Indians took theirs. For Shapiro, it blew up in his face, but that’s part of the game. His body of work has shown him more than capable of rebuilding an ailing organization on a budget.

Let’s crunch some numbers. Right now the 40-man roster stands at 33, and probably will reach 37 in a couple days. On November 20th, at least 3 prospects (Dittler, Carmona, Gutierrez) will be added to the roster, making it full at 40. However, the Indians may offer a closer like Armando Benitez a contract very quickly, not to mention one of the starters mentioned on my shopping list. John McDonald and Ronnie Belliard should be either gone or traded by the December tender deadline. That places the roster at 40 again, but if Shapiro had signed a free agent before then, he’d have to waive one or two other players. So if Traber were not waived, then it would have come down to in my mind to four other players: Brian Tallet, Cliff Bartosh, Corey Smith, and Jason Stanford. Stanford would probably have been the safest choice, as he probably will not pitch at all in 2005. Tallet should be healthy enough to pitch in the bullpen if needed, as well as Bartosh. Smith is expendable because he hasn’t hit and the soonest he’d be useful as a major-leaguer would be 2006. But you may see most or all of these players sent through waivers at some point in the winter. Just because one player is waived before the other doesn’t necessarily mean management thinks less highly of him; timing plays a large part in these decisions. Right now was probably the best time to sneak someone through waivers because teams, aside from their free agents, have full rosters; they haven’t started trading or non-tendering any of their players. If the Indians had waited until teams started adding and subtracting players from their roster in preparation for the November 20th roster freeze, Traber might have been claimed sooner, because of the volatility of player movement. So in my estimation Traber was the ‘best’ player the Indians had to get through waivers, because this is one of the best times in the offseason to sneak a player through.

As with any move, it’s difficult to critique it without the appropriate context. In this case, the context is player movement during the offseason. Right now, I don’t like the move at all. What happens a month or two from now may change my mind, for the perspective may change. That’s what’s so difficult about evaluating moves from an outsiders’ vantage point; you see the individual transaction without knowing the thinking behind it; a GM’s strategy isn’t going to appear in any press release, because you can’t be competitive that way. You only really understand why a move was made several weeks or months or even years later, and then you’re just using hindsight, when it’s extremely easy to criticize or praise, because you’re almost always right after the fact. Making the right decision is difficult, recognizing it from afar is next to impossible. But in this instance, I think the wrong player was exposed, and even though Shapiro almost got away with it, he got burned.

RHP Jason Davis – Age 24
2004 Salary: $326,800
2004 VORP: -1.8 (114.1 IP)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005)

For all the ability he has, Davis has yet to put it to good use. He crashed and burned early in 2004, was tried out in the bullpen late in the year, and for the time being still considered a starter. He’s still young enough where he can make a career for himself, but time is of the essence. His strikeout rates were abyssmal, and his mid-90s fastball didn’t miss many bats; he gave up 11.7 hits per 9 innings. As with a lot of young, tall, pitchers, Davis’ mechanics are his biggest issue. Fixing Jason Davis should be near the top of Carl Willis’ to-do list when February rolls around. Don’t write Davis off just yet, but by the same token, don’t expect a quick rebound either; this is going to take some time.

OF Jody Gerut – Age 27
2004 Salary: $325,600
2004 VORP: .256 (481 AB)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005 or 2006)

Even before his knee injury in September, Gerut was one of the few Indian hitters having a disappointing season. His power had dropped considerably, and he was hitting .252 at the time. If you split the difference between his first two campaigns, you find an average major-league fourth outfielder. Gerut was probably the teams’ best defensive player, and can play all three outfield positions well. He’s projected to be game-worthy around June, so look for Gerut some time after the All-Star Break. When he does return, the state of the outfield will dictate where and how much he plays. Sizemore and Crisp are by no means sure things in center and left, and Matt Lawton is a lame duck. Ryan Ludwick and Gerut could form a nice platoon combination eventually, but the chances of both being healthy and affordable at the same time are remote.

LHP Mariano Gomez – Age 22
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2007)

I pegged Gomez as one of my sleeper picks in my Spring Training preview. Unfortunately, a bizzare injury to a ligament in one of his fingers nagged Gomez all through the 2004 campaign. He pitched a grand total of 22.1 innings, mostly with Akron, and got smacked around. If the ligament is all right, Gomez will go back to Akron in 2005 and work his way up the organizational ladder.

RHP Jeremy Guthrie – Age 25
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
2004 VORP: 2.1 (11.2 IP)
Contract Status: Signed Through 2005 (AE in 2007)

I didn’t plan things this way, but it looks like I’m writing up all the disappointments at once. Guthrie, aside from Davis, was the biggest pitching disappointment in 2004 from a development perspective. Guthrie, who was given an organization-record bonus and a major-league contract in 2002, pitched awfully given his age and level; when a 25-year-old pitches worse in AA than he did at age 24, something is wrong. Given that the Indians are stuck with his contract, they brough Guthrie up to Cleveland in September and had him pitch in relief. I don’t believe that Guthrie is now permanently in the bullpen, but it’s looking more and more that way. Guthrie throws four pitches; one postulated reason for his regression was that he was trying to throw all of them, and in effect having success with none of them. That may be true, but I think it’s more an issue of confidence with Jeremy. It’s real easy to point to a bunch of statistics and say that he didn’t locate his pitches, but the real unknown for us outside observers is what’s going on inside a pitchers’ mind. Francisco Cruceta pitched better in Buffalo than he did in Akron; how do you explain that statistically? The same with Guthrie; if he isn’t injured, if his mechanics are still sound, if he hasn’t lost any velocity off his pitches, what other explanation can you posit?

I’ll cover Kyle Denney as part of my prospect rankings later in the winter.

The Boston Red Sox Claimed LHSP Billy Traber off Waivers

Here’s the press release.

Horrible, horrible move by the Indians. Traber will probably pitch this year, and is a much more valuable player even hurt than guys like Brian Tallet, Jason Stanford, and Cliff Bartosh. Frankly I’m shocked he got all the way to Boston before he was claimed. Any way you slice it, this move is indefensible.

That’s what it looks like. GM Mark Shapiro wants to take care of the closer vacancy first, given the variables involved. There are really four closers out there of note, and Armando Benitez is without a doubt the best of the bunch. Troy Percival looks to be on the downside of his career, Bob Wickman has serious health issues, and Dustin Hermanson barely qualifies as closer. In contrast, Benitez only allowed 36 hits in almost 70 innings pitched. He posted a VORP of 33.1, behind only Brad Lidge, Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, B.J. Ryan, Joe Nathan, and Keith Foulke among late-inning relievers.

The good news is that the Indians are up against at most 3 other teams in serious bidding for Benitez. The Chicago Cubs, Florida Marlins, and San Francisco Giants are the only three teams I’ve seen that have been mentioned in conjunction with Benitez. The Cubs seem to be more enamored with Troy Percival, and the Marlins have a fallback in Guillermo Mota. The biggest competitor for Benitez may be the San Francisco Giants. According to Paul Hoynes, Shapiro may strike quickly, offering Benitez a contract while other clubs are taking care of other more pressing needs.

Benitez is, in my mind, the only closer in the market worth giving a multi-year deal to. If they don’t get him, probably plan B is to re-sign Bob Wickman to a one-year deal, assuming Percival signs with the Cubs. Contrary to what Roger Brown is spouting, there aren’t that many good closers out there, and Benitez is by far the best of this season’s crop.

Transactions

Re-signed RHRP Jake Robbins to a minor-league contract

Robbins will probably get an invite to Spring Training, but isn’t likely to break camp with the major-league club. He’s bullpen insurance.

According to Terry Pluto, the 2005 payroll is going to be around $45M. That sounds about right. This represents an increase in salaries of about $10M, all of which should go towards a starter and a closer. I think the best-case scenario involves the Indians signing Matt Clement and Armando Benitez with that $10M, and having enough left over to keep Ronnie Belliard around for another year. However, the realist (or maybe he’s a cynic?) in me leans more towards Derek Lowe, Dustin Hermanson, and no Belliard.

Also in the article, Pluto talks about the Indians not spending enough. I think what he’s missing is the fact that the younger players are going to get built-in raises in the next couple years. Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez will make around $700k combined next season. That’s going to change fairly quickly. Right now I see the payroll maxing out at about $60M, which will probably happen in 2006 or 2007, when most of the young core will be entering their arbitration years. Although I’d love for an owner to spend money out of his own pocket to get a winner out on the field faster, it’s not going to happen. Dick Jacobs never did it when he owned the team, and aside from one season (2001), Larry Dolan probably isn’t going to do it either. The encouraging thing is that the attendance increased as the season went on, so most of the fanbase (aside from the fans that only went to watch Vizquel) is still there. The economy is obviously much different in 2005 than it was when Jacobs Field opened, but if the team can contend this season, a $60M should be realistic. One (among many) advantages to being in the AL Central is that you probably won’t be outspent by that much. Oakland has to contend with the lowest payroll in its division year after year. The Indians, if they win, should be on a level economic playing field with everyone in the division.

Roster Issues

If Corey Smith was a 15th Round pick instead of a 1st Rounder, he’d be plying his wares in some other organization by now. But he was a 1st Round pick in 2000, and having done absolutely nothing to warrant prospect status, is making his 40-man roster spot even more tenuous by refusing to get reps in the outfield this winter. It’s time to cut ties, and hopefully this will happen before November 20, when prospects have to be protected on the 40-man roster. As it stands now, the roster is at 33. When the 60-day guys get added back, it’ll be 38. There’s three “no-brainers” that will be added to the roster in a couple weeks: Franklin Gutierrez, Fausto Carmona, and Jake Dittler. That means at least one player has to go, and this isn’t counting the 2-3 free agents that will be added to the fold in December or January. Three other candidates to be dropped are Cliff Bartosh, Brian Tallet, and Jason Stanford. Stanford isn’t going to pitch until at least late in the 2005 season, and he wasn’t much of a prospect to begin with. Tallet and Bartosh are marginal left-handers, and with Scott Sauerbeck signed for 2005, at least one will be expendable.

I’ve tweaked the shopping list a bit. Eric Milton is now in Tier 2, along with newly-added Jon Lieber. I’ve bumped Odalis Perez down to Tier 3.

Feel free to add your two cents.

AL Gold Glove

Now I wasn’t expecting Omar Vizquel to win his umpteenth Gold Glove this season, and he really didn’t deserve it. However, the fact that Derek Jeter won it really makes me wonder if the Gold Glove is that relevent anymore. If you go by most of the “mainstream” defensive measure (fielding percentage, range factor, zone rating), Jeter doesn’t finish first (or second, for that matter) in any of them. And Jeter doesn’t have the incumbent effect (Bret Boone, for example). So why was Jeter the winner?

1) He plays in New York
2) He just had the best defensive season of his career (though that still meant he was pretty average)
3) The absence of Alex Rodriguez from contention this season
4) A certain play against the Red Sox

Unfortunately, I don’t think those are in any particular order. One play does not in itself earn you a gold glove. Baseball more than other sport rewards players who are above all else consistent with their performances. I’m more a big believer in a body of work than making a certain sports show’s top plays. Defense statistics are light-years behind offensive measures, and no one has really produced a statistic that truly separates great defensive players from merely good ones. But nonetheless, here’s several mainstream and sabermetric statistics, and where AL shortstops placed.

Fielding Percentage
1. David Eckstein (.988)
2. Cristian Guzman (.983)
3. Omar Vizquel (.982)
4. Derek Jeter (.981)
5. Bobby Crosby (.975)

Range Factor (RF)
1. Miguel Tejada (5.00)
2. Carlos Guillen (4.97)
3. Bobby Crosby (4.96)
4. Jose Valentin (4.91)
5. Julio Lugo (4.78)

Zone Rating (ZR)
1. Jose Valentin (.878)
2. Bobby Crosby (.870)
3. Miguel Tejada (.861)
4. David Eckstein (.859)
5. Julio Lugo (.848)

Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA)
Miguel Tejada (18)
Carlos Guillen (16)
Jose Valentin (9)
Bobby Crosby (5)
Derek Jeter (2)
David Eckstein (2)
Julio Lugo (-2)
Omar Vizquel (-1)

A quick note of these statistics. Fielding percentage is simply the percent of times a player didn’t commit an error. Zone Rating is the percent of times a player fielded a ball hit into his “zone.” Range factor is (Putouts+Assists)/(PO+A+Errors). And Fielding Runs Above Average is Baseball Prospectus’ measure of how many runs a defensive player saved over the average player at his position. Like I said, these stats are far from being proven useful 100% of the time, but it sure beats arguing that “So-and-so is better than so-and-so because I said so!”

If I had to pick an AL Gold Glove, I’d probably go with Miguel Tejada. Although Tejada hasn’t exactly had a stellar defensive career, he’s still been better than Jeter, and he had by far a better season in the field. This leads me to wonder if Tejada might have had a better all-around season in this year than his 2002 MVP season.

AL Silver Slugger

The good news yesterday was that Victor Martinez shared the AL Silver Slugger Award for a catcher with Ivan Rodriguez. Martinez probably achieved a share of the award by all his RBIs; Rodriguez posted a better VORP (64.0 to 49.5) and EQA (.300 to .285) Travis Hafner, sadly, was beaten out at DH by Boston’s David Ortiz. He bested Ortiz in VORP (74.1 to 73.1) and EQA (.325 to .309). Still, Ortiz over Hafner isn’t that bad compared to 1995, when a Boston player stole the MVP from an Cleveland player because the media didn’t like the latter.

Free Agent Fever

Finally, onto the upcoming Free Agent season. I’ve posted what I think the Indians’ shopping list looks like to the left. Although the Indians would be more than happy signing Pedro Martinez or Carl Pavano, economics aren’t in the team’s favor. My top three (1st Tier) consists of Matt Clement, Brad Radke, and Jaret Wright, in that order. If the Indians sign any one of these three, I think they did well. The 2nd Tier guys have in my opinion a lot more question marks, but if the front office doesn’t overpay for one of them, I’ll be satisfied. The 3rd Tier (and everyone else) guys would be seen as a disappointment; I don’t really see any of them being good enough to be a third starter on a good team.

I try to stay away from rumors, especially since teams can’t talk to other teams’ free agents as of yet, but I’ve seen this several places. The White Sox are really going to go hard after Omar Vizquel, and will apparently offer him a two year, $8M contract. Frankly I have no clue why the White Sox would throw that much money at Vizquel, especially given his age, but I certainly won’t complain if GM Kenny Williams wants to do it.

Re-signed RHRP Bob Howry to a one-year contract, avoiding arbitration

I haven’t been able to glean the monetary details from the Web, but I’ll assume it’s around $1M, give or take a little. Pretty good signing, given Howry’s effectiveness and his possible versatility. With Riske, Betancourt, Miller, and Sauerbeck already reasonable shots to comprise next year’s bullpen, only the closer role is vacant. But like I said before, the Indians should go ahead and sign a bunch of NRIs to stick in Buffalo just in case.

Re-signed RHSP Scott Elarton to a one-year contract ($850k plus incentives)

It looks like Shapiro isn’t wasting any time taking care of the role players. Elarton at $850k is probably below market value, given the general appetite for starting pitching throughout the league. Elarton is most definitely still in the marginal category, but as a 5th starter, you’ll take your chances with him. Now that four-fifths of the rotation seem spoken for, Shapiro can go after a second-tier starter to man the third spot in the rotation. I’d really like to see the Indians go hard after Matt Clement; he’s probably one of the few pitchers out there that may be a better pitcher in 2005 than 2004. He hails from nearby Butler, Pa., only a two hours’ drive from Cleveland, so that would be a nice selling point.

First of all, congrats to the Boston Red Sox, the 2004 World Series Champions.

When the last out was recorded in Game 4, baseball’s 2004-2005 offseason officially began. Players who are eligible can declare free agency beginning today, and in a couple weeks clubs can begin to sign free agents from other teams. In November, clubs must decide who among their Rule 5 eligibles to protect on their 40-man roster. In December, clubs decide whether to offer arbitration to players on their roster who are eligible.

To help sort these things out, I’ve provided a graphical representation of the Tribe’s offseason in the left and right columns. The first thing you’ll see on the left-hand column is the 40-man roster. The number currently on the roster is in parenthesis. As free agents file, they will officially leave the roster. These players are noted by a “(FA)” next to their name. When they do file for free agency, I’ll place them under “Pending Free Agents.” The players currently on the 60-day Disabled List will be reinstated to the 40-man roster fairly soon, so this list should disappear until right before the 2005 season begins. The players on the 40-man roster with an “(A)” next to their name are eligible for arbitration. In late December, if they haven’t been signed, the Indians have to decide whether to offer them arbitration or non-tender them. If a player is non-tendered, they automatically become a free agent eligible to sign with any club. And finally, the “Pending m-Free Agents” refers to players in the organization who are minor-league free agents. These players can sign with any organization immediately.

In the right-hand column, there’s just a few things to explain. The “Signed for 2005” column is a holding area for players the Indians have signed for minor-league contracts, but haven’t been assigned to a minor-league roster. When the team starts releasing lists of players invited to Spring Training, some of the players will go there. Guys like Jeremy Sowers and Brian Barton are there just because they haven’t been assigned to a specific roster yet.

Minor-league players with a “(5)” next to their name are, to my estimation, eligible for the Rule 5 draft. I’ll get more into this in a month or so.

Player Reviews: Renewables, Part I

“Renewables” refers to players on the 40-man roster who are not yet eligible for arbitration (0-2 years of MLB service time). Some players I will cover when I do my prospect rankings later in the winter, so if I skip over someone, you’ll know why. Oh, by the way, “AE” is short for “Arbitration Eligible.” Take these dates with a grain of salt, for they assume that the player will from next year on spend the entire time on the 25-man roster. This obviously is not going to the case for a lot of players, but I’d rather err on the side of caution. For example, Fernando Cabrera will be arbitration eligible after the 2007 season if he spends the next three seasons with the major-league club. Ok, on with the reviews.

C Josh Bard – Age 26
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
2004 EQA: .377 (19 AB)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005 or 2006)

With the imminent departure of Tim Laker, Bard is finally the permanent backup catcher. That’s a good thing; Bard has some offensive ability, is a pretty good defender, and he’s a switch-hitter. Moreover, he’s good enough to allow Wedge to sit Victor Martinez more often in 2005. Some clubs have worse starting catchers than Bard, so when he’s eligible for arbitration in one or two years, should fetch something in a trade. Until then, the Indians should have the best catching tandem in baseball.

LHRP Cliff Bartosh – Age 25
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
2004 VORP: 3.5 (19.1 IP)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2006)

Bartosh is a LOOGY-in-training, and might eventually become a nice one, judging by his strikeout rates. He may become expendible with the addition of Scott Sauerbeck and the return of Brian Tallet, but both are coming back from injuries, and Bartosh has been healthy. If the Indians need a spot on their 40-man roster, he’s the first one to go. As with most bullpen arms, your guess is as good as mine as to what numbers he’ll put up next season, whoever he pitches with.

RHRP Rafael Betancourt – Age 29
2004 Salary: $305,200
2004 VORP: 14.5 (66.2 IP)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005 or 2006)

A nice find via minor-league free agency, Betancourt was the bullpen’s most consistent pitcher in 2004. The one note of caution is that while his strikeouts and walks have remained pretty stable compared to 2003, his hit ratio has gone up. With Raffy’s unconventional delivery, you could take this trend as AL hitters getting used to his short-armed delivery. Or you could just look at his other numbers and decide the hits are more indicative of luck (or lack thereof). Betancourt isn’t a pitcher you should be spending a lot of money on when he gets to arbitration, but the Indians will gladly take this while he’s only making six figures.

1B Ben Broussard – Age 28
2004 Salary: $324,100
2004 EQA: .289 (418 AB)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005)

He’s still probably a placeholder for Michael Aubrey, but you certainly can’t compain with his performance in 2004. Broussard might be overvalued right because of all the RBIs, leading to referrals of “clutchness,” but if it increases his trade value in a year or two, I’m all for it. He should again be a part-timer in 2005, sharing time with Josh Phelps. He still has to hit for more power, but everything else looks pretty good.

OF Coco Crisp – Age 24
2004 Salary: $319,400
2004 EQA: .266 (491 AB)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005)

Fourth outfielder, or Shannon Stewart Lite? That’s what I’ve been asking myself regarding Crisp lately. I think if Crisp can fully use his speed to his advantage, then he’s a full-time player. That means a better on-base percentage, and a better steal percentage. If he does those two things next season, he’s a keeper. Otherwise, he’ll get stuck in between, and hopefully the Indians won’t be the team that overpays for him. His power has been a nice revelation, but I think that he’ll be more of a doubles hitter than a home-run threat. If things stay the same in the outfield, he should get 500 at-bats next season. That should be enough to tell us what kind of player Coco is.

I’ll cover Andrew Brown, Fernando Cabrera, and Francisco Cruceta later in the winter, when I rank the organization’s top 20 prospects.