Ryan

The last Indian to win a batting title has died. Avila was an integral part of the 1954 Indians, a team that still holds the American League record for winning percentage (.721). Avila was the first Mexican to have any real success in the major leagues. After returning home, he served in various facets of the Mexican government.

Baseball Library entry
Career Stats

These are some arguments I’ve heard as reasons for keeping Omar Vizquel around, and my counter-arguments. I’ll add to them as more arguments come my way.

Point: Omar Vizquel is a Future Hall of Famer, so the Indians should keep him.

Counterpoint: That Vizquel will probably get some votes in 2010-2012 is probably true. Will he get enough votes to get into the Hall of Fame right away? I doubt it. With quanifying defensive prowess being such a grey area, Vizquel doesn’t have an ironclad case other than his Gold Gloves. The biggest obstacle Vizquel will face is the changing of the MLB shortstop from a defensive specialist to an offensive weapon, beginning with Cal Ripken and continuing with players like Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Miguel Tejada.

There is the Ozzie Smith exception to getting into the Hall of Fame, but Smith generally is considered the best defensive shortstop ever. His career range factor (5.03) bests Vizquel’s (4.43) by a fairly large margin. Smith also had the benefit of playing in an era when he wasn’t as overshadowed by more offensive players at his position. Smith’s OPS+ (87) is better than Vizquel’s (85). I’d say in retrospect Vizquel’s career is more similar to fellow Venezuelan Dave Concepcion than Smith, and Concepcion hasn’t made the Hall.

I guess my point is that Vizquel is anything but a slam dunk to make the Hall of Fame. That being said, even if I could travel into the future and find out that Vizquel will make the HOF in 7-8 years, will that change the player he is now or next year? No. Here’s a sampling of what Hall of Fame (or Hall of Fame-caliber) shortstops did in their Age 38 season (OPS+ in parenthesis):

Luis Aparicio, 1972: .257/.299/.351 (89)
Dave Bancoft, 1928: .277/.331/.332 (66)
Ernie Banks, 1969: .253/.309/.416 (92)*
Barry Larkin, 2002: .245/.305/.367 (71)
Rabbit Maranville, 1930: .281/.344/.367 (74)
Pee Wee Reese, 1957: .224/.306/.248 (46)
Ozzie Smith, 1993: .288/.337/.356 (88)
Honus Wagner, 1912: .324/.395/.496 (145)
Bobby Wallace, 1912: .241/.332/.316 (89)

*As a first baseman

All of those listed above posted an OPS+ below their career average except for Wagner.

As far as the “You don’t let a Hall of Famer leave” argument is concerned, I’ll just say two words: Roberto Alomar.

Point: The Indians owe Vizquel for staying.

Counterpoint: The Indians haven’t exactly underpaid for Vizquel’s services in recent years. Vizquel’s most recent contract extension paid him $15M over the past two seasons. In today’s economic climate, that’s overpaying.

Point: If the Indians don’t bring back Vizquel, I’m not going back to the Jake again.

Counterpoint: That’s nice.

Point: Vizquel is being kicked to the curbed because of Dolan’s penny-pinching ways.

Counterpoint: This may be true to some extent, but I don’t think bringing Vizquel back would be such a good idea regardless of the Indians’ payroll, for reasons mentioned above. If the Indians had a $70M payroll and paid Vizquel $5M while Jhonny Peralta rotted in the minors, I’d be ticked off. Until Shapiro traded Peralta for a LOOGY in July, when I’d be really ticked off. Shapiro can’t control the teams’ payroll, but the fact that he has $45M instead of $70M to work with makes him less likely to keep indulgences like Vizquel around.

I just saw this gem from a “Hey Hoynsie!” column:

Q: I have been a loyal Indians fan for 46 years. From sitting in the obstructed view, straight-A student seats in the old stadium to club seats at the Jake, I have faithfully attended Tribe games.

But this latest deplorable decision not to sign Omar Vizquel is too much to bear . . . Not to sign him immediately and make it possible for this amazing ballplayer to retire as a Cleveland Indian when the time comes is unforgivable.

If Omar does not come back to Jacobs Field, then neither will this once loyal Indians fan. – Eva Webster, Solon.

A: Hey, Eva: I can’t tell you how many e-mails I’ve received just like yours. I can’t remember this kind of response when the Indians lost other big-name players such as Albert Belle, Robbie Alomar, Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez.

It shows you what kind of hold Vizquel has on the community. Maybe the front office will listen to you and others. Maybe owner Larry Dolan will expand the budget so that GM Mark Shapiro can improve the club and keep Vizquel. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

Frankly I don’t want to go over whether or not Peralta is better than Vizquel. I’m sure some of you who are reading this feels like Vizquel has another year or two left. And that’s fine.

But I would think we’ve seen enough of what goes on in baseball to not fall in love with a player to the point where the love of a player trumps the love of a team. That’s what happens when you’re a fan of a middle-market team; you’re going to see players leave who you don’t necessarily want to leave. However, with this Vizquel situation, I think it goes deeper than that; we’ve elevated Omar so much as a community that he’s become something that he’s not. If the Indians lose Vizquel, it might hurt the team (I don’t think it will), but not nearly as much Belle or Ramirez or Thome leaving hurt it. The fact that some fans are willing to give up their season tickets because their favorite player is leaving, despite the improvement of the team on the whole, despite the fact that Dolan is finally willing to spend more money, mystifies me. Yeah, it’s your money, and you can do with it what you want. But I just don’t get this mindset at all.

For the final time, please root for the name on the front of the jersey, not the back. That’s what I thought Indians fans have learned, especially in the past 7-8 seasons.

This is actually a really short list; Only four Indians (five counting the recently re-signed Bob Howry) have 2005 contracts. That’s pretty amazing.

3B Aaron Boone – Age 31
2003 Salary: $3.7M
2003 EQA: .281 for Cincinnati, .255 for New York (AL)
Contract Status: Signed through 2005 ($3.0M); team option for 2006 ($4.5M with various bonuses)

Now that Boone has been splashed all over sports shows to celebrate his 2003 ALCS-winning home run, let’s try to separate fact from mystique.

Before coming to the Yankees, Aaron Boone was a pretty nice player for the Cincinnati Reds; his EQA only dipped below average in 1999 (.256) and 2002 (.259). He’s a very good defensive third basemen, has some speed, and will hit for decent power. Assuming Boone is in playing shape by April and puts up career-average numbers, Boone for $3M is a pretty good investment. The side effect of Boone’s signing is that it will probably force Casey Blake to move to second base, a position he’s never played before. If Boone was completely healthy, I would think that he’d be a better fit at second than Blake, but turning the double play isn’t exactly the best thing for a player coming off two knee surgeries. Monetarily, signing Boone might actually save the Indians some money; Boone will probably make less than Belliard will make in arbitration, plus the team can trade Belly for something useful. Offensively, Boone/Blake is a bit better than Blake/Belliard, but not that much. Defensively, it might be a wash depending how Blake takes to second base; if Casey can impersonate Mark Bellhorn defensively, things should work out OK. I guess yet another side effect of the signing is that Jhonny Peralta can stay at short for the time being, pushing Brandon Phillips into a utility role and making John McDonald look for employment elsewhere.

As you can see there’s a lot of variables at work here, and I don’t really know how it’s going to work out. But that the Indians have actually started to spend money on relatively good players again is a step in the right direction as far as the rebuild is concerned. And that Boone chose the Indians because he believes in the future of the team is a nice shot in the arm for the organization’s stature among possible free agents this winter.

OF Matt Lawton – Age 32
2004 Salary: $7.25M
2004 EQA: .274 (.277/.366/.421)
Contract Status: Signed through 2005 (~$7.5M)

The Indians finally got a healthy Matt Lawton in 2004, and he posted numbers pretty much in line with his career averages. That he was paid $7.25M to do so is a lingering effect of Shapiro’s giddy offseason spending following the 2001 season. Still, he’s the most proven quantity the Indians have in the outfield right now, so unless the perfect salary swap presents itself this winter, Lawton should be playing either right or left field for the Indians next year. He’s an underrated leadoff hitter, and can still steal a base, so it’s not like he’s dead weight on the roster. Looking at his defensive numbers, he actually looks pretty average, believe it or not.

LHSP C.C. Sabathia – Age 23
2004 Salary $2.7M
2004 VORP: 40.2
Contract Status: Signed through 2005 ($4.5M); team option for 2006 ($7.0M)

First, the bad news: Sabathia didn’t pitch well at all after tweaking his bicep before the All-Star Break. His ERA after the ASB was 5.12.

Now, the good news. Sabathia’s stuff didn’t seem to suffer that much, and he pitched better in Saptember, posting a 3.71 ERA.

Looking at Sabathia’s 2004 as a whole, you don’t see much deviation in his peripheral numbers, like H/9 or SO/9, etc. He’s stayed healthy in his first four seasons, which is a minor miracle, and although the probability that he’ll become that top-notch starter has gone down, there isn’t much wrong with the pitcher is today. Yes, he needs to shed some weight, and his mechanics have always been a concern, but overall Sabathia is a very valuable starter that will probably be the team’s titular ace over the next two seasons.

LHRP Scott Sauerbeck – Age 32
2003 Salary: $1.556M
2003 VORP: 4.9 with Pittsburgh, -2.7 with Boston
Contract Status: Signed through 2005

Sauerbeck’s shoulder was a mess after arriving in Boston, so take the Boston stats with a grain of salt. I’ve gone over Sauerbeck just recently, so I’ll spare you any repetitious remark on the left-hander.

My original goal was to have this done before the completion of the World Series, so I’ll get this going a little faster:

2B Ronnie Belliard – Age 28
2004 Salary: $1.1M
2004 EQA: .265 (.282/.348/.426)
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligible (FA in 2005)

He’s an interesting player. Belliard has several nice abilities: he can mash left-handed pitching, he can turn double plays very well, and he has a good arm. Mark Shapiro lost out on Todd Walker last winter and ended up with Belliard, who was a much better player this season. Now Shapiro has an interesting decision to make. Belliard is still only arbitration-eligible, but will get a substantial bump in salary. There really aren’t that many good 2B options out there in the free agent market, and several teams are going to need a second baseman. This makes, in my estimation, Belliard a real nice trading chip. If Shapiro can turn Belliard’s career year into something useful, like a starting pitcher or a bullpen arm, he should go for it. Belliard’s defense is ok, as far as I can tell; he plays the deepest second base in the majors, and the mainstream defensive stats say he’s pretty average.

3B Casey Blake – Age 31
2004 Salary: $352,400
2004 EQA: .278 (.271/.354/.486)
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligible (FA in 2007)

Blake was originally slated to take over for Ben Broussard at first base next season, but since Broussard’s nice second-half showing, he’s going left on the defensive spectrum to second base. Of course the big question is whether Blake can play there, and I don’t think we’ll know that until next spring. What we do know is that Blake should be back in some capacity; he’s turned out to become a really nice pickup for the Indians, posting a very quiet .840 OPS this season. There was a time when I thought Blake would be a low-budget Joe Randa, but Randa never had as productive a season as Blake just had. If he can actually play second base, he’ll become that much more valuable. But that’s a big if.

RHRP Bob Howry – Age 31
2004 Salary: ~$400,000
2004 VORP: 15.8
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligible [Just signed to a one-year contract]

Chalk Howry up to the Indians’ burgoning rehab program. Howry was signed to a minor-league deal coming off arm surgery, and he came back after the All-Star Break and simply became the team’s best reliever. Re-signing him is a pretty big no-brainer for the Indians; he has the coveted Proven Closer^TM mantle so he could step and close if needed, and if the Indians keep Wickman or acquire a closer elsewhere, he’ll be pretty good in setup.

IF John McDonald – Age 30
2004 Salary: $324,400
2004 EQA: .194 (.204/.237/.344)
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligilble (FA in 2007)

McDonald had the misfortune of being drafted by an American League team. In the AL, defensive specialists like McDonald are used sparingly, and with John’s offensive ineptitude, isn’t going to be any kind of pinch-hitter. He should find a home in the National League, where double switches and the pitchers’ spot will allow for him to get more playing time. He’s either going to be traded or non-tendered; I’m betting on the latter.

RHRP David Riske – Age 27
2004 Salary: $1.025M
2004 VORP: 22.0
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligible (FA in 2006)

Riske’s 2004 has to be seen a step backwards from his stellar 2003 campaign, but he made enough progress in the last couple months of this season to warrant a return. He shouldn’t get a big bump in salary, even with arbitration. Now that Riske seems closing-adverse, he should settle down into a 7th/8th inning role for the forseeable future.

RHSP Jake Westbrook – Age 27
2004 Salary: $925,000
2004 VORP: 54.4 (1st among Indians starters)
Contract Status: Arbitration Eliglble (FA in 2006)

Jake is going to receive a very large bump in salary after what he did this season. You shouldn’t expect this every year from Westbrook; as with most ground-ballers, Westbrook allows a lot more balls to be put in play than your typical starter. That being said, the Indians should have a nice 3rd starter for the next couple seasons. It should be interesting to see if the Indians take this opportunity to sign Westbrook to a long-term contract, or if they are a bit leery of locking up a player with one good season following three mediocre ones.

The Seattle Mariners have chosen Mike Hargrove to be their new manager, signing him to a three-year contract.

It’s nice to see him get another chance; albeit with a team that’s a couple years away from contention. Hargrove was the fall guy after the 1999 ALDS loss, and maybe I’m one of the few fans out there that thought he was given a raw deal by John Hart.Yes, his LaRussan bullpen moves frustrated me at times, but overall I was impressed how he could deal with all the egos that inhabited the clubhouse in those days and get results out of the talent given him. Of course, it won’t matter who’s managing the Mariners if GM Bill Bavasi doesn’t improve the talent base, but Hargrove is a nice safe pick for them.

RHSP Scott Elarton – Age 28
2004 Salary: ~$400,000
2004 VORP: 19.2
Contract Status: Free Agent

What you saw this season from Elarton is probably the best you’re going to get from him. He’s a flyball pitcher, and that’s not necessarily a horrible thing for someone who pitches in Jacobs Field; the Jake has been a fairly neutral park for home runs over its first 10 seasons. Unfortunately for Scott, his previous stop was Coors Field, which offered the double whammy of flattening his curveball and turning lazy flyouts into home runs. Does his time in Coors excuse all his bad numbers? Absolutely not; but it appears that Elarton can be an acceptable 5th starter now that he’s regained at least some of his confidence. Contrary to what I thought about him when the Indians signed him, he should be brought back if the price is right. Given that the Indians gave Jason Bere and Jeff D’Amico $1M contracts with worse credentials, Elarton’s worth at least that much.

RHRP Rick White – Age 35
2004 Salary: ~$400,000
2004 VORP: 2.7
Contract Status: Free Agent

This is a situation where you say thanks to White for being a replacement-level reliever when you didn’t have any in your bullpen, but part ways because he’s a replacement-level reliever. The term that’s thrown around describing these types of guys are “fungible,” meaning easily replaceable. Of course there’s a problem if Mark Shapiro can’t get any better relievers than White next season, but that would be more an issue with Shapiro’s performance than with White’s.

Next up: Arbitration-eligible players

Site Update

I’ve finally given up constructing a player page for each player in the organization; now when you click on a player, you’ll be taken to their page at The Baseball Cube. I’ve also linked to their draft page, as you can access every single one of the Indians’ drafts via one page. I will however continue to update the Depth Chart, Transactions Page, and Options Page myself.

Uh, he’s pretty good.

It’s nice to see Beltran finally getting the national recognition that most fans in the AL Central thought he deserved. If Beltran isn’t a true five-tool player, I don’t know who is; he’s simply an amazing talent.

And he’ll become a very very rich man in about a month. He’s one of four free agents who the Indians won’t even think about signing, the others being Adrian Beltre, Pedro Martinez, and Carl Pavano.

C Tim Laker – Age 34
2004 Salary: $450,000
2004 EQA: .194 (.214/.262/.308)
Contract Status: Free Agent

In 1992, his rookie season, Tim Laker pinch-ran for Gary Carter in the Hall of Famer’s last game. Since then, he’s had the career of a backup catcher, bouncing from organization to organization. After arriving in Cleveland, he’s been a backup to first Josh Bard, then Victor Martinez. Now that both are healthy and not going anywhere, there’s no room for him on this team, and he’ll probably find work elsewhere; besides, who can resist the allure of a veteren backup catcher?

RHRP Bob Wickman – Age 35
2004 Salary: $5.3M
2004 VORP: 6.7 (4.25 ERA)
Contract Status: Free Agent

On November 5th, 2001, the Indians re-signed Wickman to a three-year extension. At the time, not much was said about the re-signing, since Wickman was coming off two pretty good years as the team’s closer. But later that season, Wickman injured his elbow and missed essentially two years recovering from arm surgery. Suddenly that contract was lumped in with other bad deals (Lawton Gutierrez) as evidence against Shapiro’s “transitioning” plan. Wickman finally appears healthy, but now that three-year extension has run its course. Bob now is pondering retirement, and he does so, the Indians are pretty much forced to go out and get a closer. If he decides to play another season, he would be a stopgap (aren’t most closers stopgaps?) until the team finds an internal solution.

Wickman isn’t a typical closer; he relies on his sinkers instead fastballs to get hitters out. Wickman is at his best when he throws strikes, because he’ll allow his share of base hits. Now that the label of “proven closer” has been planted indelibly on him, Wicky should have a job waiting for him as long as his arm is all right and he’s collecting some 30-odd saves a season; never mind his ERA.