Ryan

I’m starting my player reviews with players that may not be around much longer.

SS Omar Vizquel – Age: 37
2004 Salary: $7.50M
2004 EQA: .262 (.291/.353/.388)
Contract Status: Free Agent

“I ain’t what I used to be, but who the hell is?”
-Dizzy Dean

Omar has become an icon in Cleveland, especially in the past couple of years. During the magical run beginning in 1995, Vizquel was simply a small cog in a large machine, the slick-fielding shortstop who a could steal a base and bunt for a base hit. As Belle and Murray, Ramirez, Lofton and Alomar, and finally Thome left the franchise, fans concentrated their admiration on Vizquel, partly becuase of his smile and his defense, but also because he was the remnant of those Indians of renown, those teams which won 6 division titles and two American League pennants. But wistful remembrances can’t affect the future.

While Vizquel probably has a couple more season in him, he’s become a different player in the last couple seasons. No longer is his defense Gold-Glove worthy, and a lot of his value has come from the offensive side of the ledger, posting an EQA of .262 this season. Peralta, at age 22, posted a translated EQA of .256 in Buffalo. The difference between Vizquel and Peralta isn’t enough to justify re-signing Vizquel; even if you assume that Vizquel at age 38 is the better fielder, Peralta’s offensive positives and salary make Omar (gasp!) expendible. Had the two players in question been between a similar player like Mike Bordick and Jhonny Peralta, would the outcry be as loud? Please don’t take this as a slam on Vizquel; he’s been a very nice player for the Indians for a long time. But it’s time to move on.

Declined the 2005 Option of RHRP Bob Wickman ($5M)

Like Vizquel, this doesn’t do anything to damage the chance of Wicky coming back. I think the biggest issue right now is whether Wickman wants to play another season or not. If not, the Indians will explore some of the other closer options, including guys like Troy Percival, Armando Benitez, and John Smoltz. If you’ve read my blog previously, I don’t place much stock in spending a ton of money on the bullpen. That being said, if Benitez can be had for $3M, I think the Indians would be crazy not to go for it. The good thing is that a lot of the larger market teams have closers under contract, so the Indians might find a couple bargains via free agency.

Outrighted IF Lou Merloni and C Tim Laker; Both elected free agency

Laker is gone, but Merloni will most likely be back. Wedge made silk out of a sow’s ear platooning Broussard and Merloni at first base most of the season, but now that Josh Phelps is around, Merloni should be able to go back to being a nice backup infielder. If Casey Blake does in fact play second base next season, Merloni might fit into an offense/defense platoon at second. Maybe he’ll be Jake Westbrook’s personal second baseman.

Purchased the Contract of LHRP Scott Sauerbeck

The Indians picked up Sauerbeck earlier this season; he had major shoulder surgery in the winter after no team showed any interest in him. According to this article, Sauerbeck pitched with a torn labrum most of the 2003 season, and injured his rotator cuff after being traded to Boston in July. Given the other left-handed options (or lack of thereof) the Indians have in the bullpen, Sauerbeck looks like a nice low-risk gamble. In 2002, the season before his shoulder injury, Sauerbeck struck out 70 batters in 62.2 innings pitched. He’s tougher against left-handed hitters (.201 BAA) than right-handers (.268 BAA), but I think using him strictly as a LOOGY wouldn’t be using him efficiently. Unfortunately, if he’s the only left-hander in the bullpen next season, Eric Wedge may try to shoehorn him into that role. I don’t really like when managers do that; Mike Sciossia found out about that the hard way when he brought in Jarrod Washburn (removing Francisco Rodriguez) to face David Ortiz in this year’s ALDS. If a guy has good stuff, it shouldn’t really matter who he’s facing, barring a really uneven platoon split.

Reinstated RHP Joe Dawley from the 60-day Disabled List; Outrighted him to Buffalo (AAA)

Dawley made two starts for the Indians when the back end of the rotation was a revolving door. He injured his elbow after two starts, although it doesn’t look like he’s going to have Tommy John surgery. He can become a minor-league free agent shortly, and should be in someone’s camp next spring.

Re-signed RHP Kenny Rayborn to a minor-league contract (2005)

Rayborn should spend most of 2005 in Buffalo; he’s put up decent numbers in AAA, but his strikeout (4.73) and hit (8.88) ratios don’t predict major-league success. He’ll be 30 in November.

Released RHP Evan Thomas from Buffalo (AAA)

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Declined the 2005 Option of SS Omar Vizquel ($5M)

This is nothing shocking, and it doesn’t really have any impact on whether Vizquel returns. Declining the option means that Vizquel will receive a $1M buyout. The Indians have until December 7th to make a final decision on keeping Omar, but they’ll more than likely have made up their minds long before that. Judging by the reactions from both camps following their post-season meeting, I think Vizquel’s agent was asking for too much money. Or maybe Shapiro would rather just cut ties now and go with Jhonny Peralta or Brandon Phillips from here on out. Either way, Vizquel is probably playing for somebody else next season. Despite all the hand-wringing that will result from Vizquel’s departure, I really don’t think the Indians will suffer that much.

Overall Review

A handy chart summarizing various team measures:

I think it’s pretty obvious where the weak spots were. The bullpen was bad in the first half, and the starting pitching was bad in the second half.

In general, this was a .500 team; their Pythagorean record was only a little over one win off from their real record. The rebuilding is pretty much over; the 2004 payroll should be the lowest in the upcoming five-year span, mainly because the Indians have a lot of pre-Arbitration players on the roster. If the team continues to win, payroll should continue to increase, stabilizing somewhere around the $60M plateau in 2006 when most of this years’ core players will be starting to get big raises.

As far as the team on the field, there are several areas to address, including a better understanding of how to steal a base. I like Rick Manning as a broadcaster; however, I haven’t really liked what he’s done as a coach. Now that Lee Mazilli’s job appears safe in Baltimore, Eddie Murray should return as the Indians’ hitting instructor; that’s a good thing. I’m not as sure about Carl Willis, but his big test will come with how he handles a more experienced pitching staff.

This offseason is going to be a big test for Mark Shapiro as well, because he hasn’t been in the position to give out multi-year contracts since the winter of 2001-2002, and we know how that turned out. But overall I’ve been impressed at a lot of his minor moves, including the signing of Casey Blake, Belliard, Howry, Miller, the acquistions of Hafner, Phelps, and the three prospects from Montreal. He made two bad moves last winter in acquiring Jeriome Robertson and Scott Stewart for decent prospects. However, I’m more impressed that he stood by his plan when there were several opportunities to go for broke or cave to fan interests. The fact that he’s willing to part ways with Vizquel, even with mainstream fan opposition tells me a lot; making the right move is more important than making the popular move. He was also willing to sign Kaz Tadano after he was blackballed by every team in Japan and a lot of major league clubs. He was willing to make a stand on Milton Bradley, and not respond even when Milton (and his mother) ripped him in the press.

Overall, I really like the organization’s health, top to bottom. There aren’t really any bad contracts hanging over the club, the farm system is in good shape, and the coaching staff will be entering its third year in 2005. The only thing left to do is to start bringing in some final pieces via free agency, and hopefully that should be enough to make this club a 87-90 win team in 2005. Granted, a lot of things have to go right to do that, but as Branch Rickey once said, “luck is the residue of design.”

Up next I’ll concentrate on individual players; I’ll try to do 1-3 a day, starting this week.

Thoughts? Comments?

The Offense

There really isn’t much of anything negative to say about the 2004 offense, other than they didn’t hit a lot of home runs.

In my mind, there were exactly two disappointments; Alex Escobar and Jody Gerut. Escobar is now property of the Chicago White Sox, and Gerut at least justified playing time before his knee injury by playing an excellent right field.

Breakout years: Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, and Coco Crisp

What Hafner did in 2004 astounds me even more now that I look more closely at the numbers he put up. Only Vladamir Guerrero, Melvin Mora, Ichiro, and Miguel Tejada had a higher VORP among AL position players. He might even finish in the top 10 in MVP voting, despite playing for a team that was out of the race by September 1st. I’ll get into Hafner and what kind of career I think he can have later on in my player reviews, but suffice to say he’s simply a fantastic hitter. Victor Martinez bucked the recent trend of catching prospects who didn’t live up of to the advanced billing. With Josh Bard being a much better backup catcher than Tim Laker, Eric Wedge should be able to keep Martinez fresher down the stretch next year. Coco Crisp really surprised me; although I’m a lot less sure of him than I am with Hafner and Martinez, he has a lot of interesting facets to his game, especially his surprising power, that has piqued my interest.

Comeback years: Matt Lawton, Ronnie Belliard, and Omar Vizquel

Lawton and Vizquel simply got healthy, and gave the Indians generally what was expected out of them. Vizquel has somewhat compensated for the decline of range in the field by becoming a better hitter at the plate. Lawton faded after the All-Star Break, but still ended the season with numbers in line with his career averages. Belliard was the big surprise; in a down year for second basemen, he was one of the best in the American League this season.

Marked Improvement: Casey Blake, Ben Broussard

Blake, who was the best hitter on the 2003 Indians (which wasn’t saying much), improved pretty much every aspect of his offensive game. Ben Broussard, who was in real danger of being kicked to the curb after a couple simply awful stretches early in the season, turned it on after the All-Star Break, one of the few players to do so. Now he’s played himself into a job next season.

The Overall Approach

The 2004 Indians scored runs through hitting a ton of doubles and drawing a ton of walks, an approach the sabermetrician in me really likes. While I don’t like to give pitching or hitting coaches too much credit (or blame) for player performance, the drastic team-wide improvement has to be in some part due to hitting instructor Eddie Murray. Another big reason has to be the fact a lot of the main cogs were second year players, and had finally started to feel comfortable in the majors. And of course a huge reason is that the lineup was generally kept intact for the whole year; before September, only Lou Merloni went on the Disabled List before September.

2005 Outlook

Omar Vizquel and Ronnie Belliard are probably on their way out, with Aaron Boone and Jhonny Peralta the likely candidates to take their places on the roster. Grady Sizemore will probably get a full-time job somewhere in the outfield, and Josh Phelps will probably replace Lou Merloni as the 1B/DH against left-handed pitchers, leaving Merloni (if he returns) to be more of a utility guy (If Blake ends up as the second baseman, Merloni might spot him against a tough left-hander). The offensive vacuums of John McDonald and Tim Laker will be replaced by Merloni (or Brandon Phillips) and Josh Bard. Obviously, there’s a much greater chance of offensive regression to the mean as far as runs scored next season, but the additions of Phelps (over a full season), Peralta, and Boone should improve the team’s power production. With pitching being more of a concern this offseason, the offense is going to be counted on to at least stay constant; hopefully, with an improved pitching staff, the offense won’t have to “win” as many games as this past season.

Outrighted OF Ernie Young, RHRP Jake Robbins, and SS Ivan Ochoa to Buffalo (AAA)

The biggest surprise of the three is Ochoa, who was just added to the 40-man Roster last November. Ivan spent much of the season on Kinston’s Disabled List with an injured shoulder. Among the four (I’m not including the Baez fiasco) that were added (the others being Grady Sizemore, Mariano Gomez, and Corey Smith), Ochoa was the real surprise; although he had quite a reputation for his defense, he hadn’t hit that much. During October, a lot of teams like to sneak players through waivers, and the Indians did so with these three. Ernie Young and Jake Robbins will become minor-league free agent in a couple weeks, and Ochoa will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft if he isn’t added back to the roster in November.