Baseball (Archive)

The Bench

It’s kind of weird to say this about a team with one of the lower payrolls in baseball, but the Indians might have the best bench in the game.

BUYS

C Josh Bard
2004 WARP: 0.6

Bard’s absence due to various injuries lead the Indians to keep Tim Laker on the roster all last year. Predictably, Eric Wedge ran Victor Martinez into the ground rather than sit him in favor of Laker. Now that Bard is back, Laker’s been banished to Tampa, and the Indians have a credible option at backup catcher. Bard will probably be trade bait as he becomes more expensive, but for the next couple seasons he should be one of the best backups in the business.

OF Ryan Ludwick
2004 WARP: 0.1

A Rangers fan I know termed Ludwick a right-handed version of Todd Hollandsworth after he was dealt for Ricardo Rodriguez in 2002. That prediction looks pretty accurate. Ludwick still should be able to play center field, at least according to early reports out of Spring Training. Because he’s out of options, he’ll be a bench player, providing some right-handed pop in the late innings.

HOLDS

IF Jose Hernandez
2004 WARP: 3.4

The right half of Los Angeles’ 2004 second base platoon, Hernandez will be playing more of a utility role for the Indians. Jose can play all over the field, but his bat is what will get him into the lineup. Another nice late-inning option.

SELLS

IF Alex Cora
2004 WARP: 4.8

Cora’s 2004 was in most respects a career year. He posted a career high in home runs (10), although they seem to have come at the expense of doubles (9). That’s a weird combination considering the park where he played, so I’m betting that ratio won’t hold this year. He’s a perfect fit with Ronnie Belliard; he’s the better defensive player, and he’s a left-handed hitter. He could also fill in at shortstop for a month or so if need be.

These two headlines aren’t what you like to see if you’re an Indians fan:

Miller strains right elbow ligament

Sabathia sidelined with strained muscle

Adam Miller’s injury is the more serious of the two; there’s a possibility that he may need Tommy John surgery, but the team is taking the more conservative approach right now, which is understandable. Miller is one of the best pitching prospects the Indians have had in some time, and to lose him to an arm injury is just awful. Hopefully rest will fix the problem, as it did with JD Martin a couple years ago. But either way, his ETA in Cleveland just got pushed back at least a year.

Sabathia’s injury, on the surface, looks minor. The muscle is on the non-throwing side of his body, and although he may miss 7-10 days, he shouldn’t miss too much time once the regular season starts. He might not start on Opening Day because of Spring Training time lost, though.

The Relievers

As a group, the bullpen has a lot of room for improvement, given what happened in 2004. But let’s try to differentiate between the first-half bullpen and the second-half bullpen. Remember, Bob Wickman, Bob Howry, and Matt Miller were brought in later in the season, replacing guys like Scott Stewart, Jose Jimenez, and Jeriome Robertson. David Riske and Rafael Betancourt (to a lesser extent) turned things around in the second half as well. Here’s the second half numbers from returning bullpen members:

Bob Wickman – 26.2 IP, 4.72 ERA, 29 H, 24 SO, 8 BB
Bob Howry – 34.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 28 H, 31 SO, 10 BB
David Riske – 33.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, 28 H, 28 SO, 18 BB
Rafael Betancourt – 30.2 IP, 3.23 ERA, 28 H, 36 SO, 10 BB
Matt Miller – 34.0 IP, 2.91 ERA, 26 H, 30 SO, 14 BB

That’s not a bad bullpen. Unfortunately, the ugliness of April overshadowed July and August. Bob Wickman, who isn’t a dominating closer by any stretch of the imagination, will force the rest of the bullpen into roles that they’ve thrived in. That will hopefully make the 2005 bullpen somewhat of a strength.

BUYS

Rafael Betancourt
2004 WARP: 3.3

Raffy was probably the best reliever on the team from April to June. Unfortunately, the rest of the bullpen was so horrid that he was misused as a setup man because no one else could get the game to the 9th inning. After Wickman and Howry joined the team, Betancourt found his niche as a 7th inning reliever. This spring, there’s a chance that he won’t make the club, which is mind-boggling.

Matt Miller
2004 WARP: NA

He looks like a reincarnation of Steve Reed, a former Indian. Like Reed, Miller is an extreme-groundball pitcher. Hitters batted only .216 against Miller last season, making him an extremely effective change-of-pace pitcher out the bullpen. Like Betancourt, Miller may be on the outside looking in.

Arthur Rhodes
2004 WARP: 1.5

A failed closer in Oakland, Rhodes was dealt in two salary dump trades over the winter; to the Pirates in the Jason Kendall trade, and to the Indians for Matt Lawton. I don’t think he’s going to be anywhere near what he was in 2000-2001, but a expecting a rebound season is reasonable.

HOLDS

Bob Wickman
2004 WARP: 1.6

If he’s healthy, Bob will give you 50-60 mediocre innings, racking up about 35 saves, and increasing sales of pacemakers in Cleveland by 50%. As I said earlier, his worth may be more as a placeholder than a linchpin.

David Riske
2004 WARP: 4.0

Now that Riske is a permanent setup man, look for him to settle down as a dominant 7th or 8th inning pitcher. His hit rates climbed last year, but declined over the course of the year as his brutal April got farther and farther away.

Scott Sauerbeck

This year’s injury rehab project. Given the choice between Sauerbeck, Miller, or Betancourt, I’d take the two right-handers. At his best, Scott is a dominant pitcher against left-handers who can also get right-handers out if needed. Left-handed hitting has hit a lifetime .201 against Sauerbeck, which may mean he’s the team’s LOOGY in the middle to late innings. He’s coming off a one-year layoff thanks to shoulder problems, so my expectations are tempered.

SELLS

Bob Howry
2004 WARP: 2.6

Another in the long line of retreads made good, Howry was the best pitcher in the bullpen down the stretch last year. Even in a contract year, though, Howry is going to be hard-pressed to repeat his 2004 performance. Don’t read too much into this rating; like Westbrook, Howry’s just a bid overvalued at this point. Bob may slot down to the 7th inning if Riske comes out hot.

Transactions

Signed C Josh Bard, RHP Andrew Brown, RHP Fernando Cabrera, RHP Fausto Carmona, OF Coco Crisp, OF Franklin Gutierrez, 1B Travis Hafner, C Victor Martinez, RHP Matt Miller, SS Jhonny Peralta, and RHP Kazuhito Tadano to 2005 Contracts.

And so everyone on the 40-man roster has a contract for this season. It looks like there will be no multi-year deals for Martinez and Hafner, although it appears negotiations are still on-going. Brown has been moved to the bullpen, so he may move a bit quicker than if he remained a starter. Cabrera, Brown, and Tadano and going to Buffalo barring a barrage of injuries, and Gutierrez and Carmona are probably going to start in Akron, with a mid-season promotion to Buffalo if they do better this time around.

Invited LHRP Graeme Lloyd to Spring Training

Old LOOGYs don’t retire; they simply run out of clubs to tryout with.

The Lineup

C Victor Martinez
2004 WARP: 5.5
Rating: BUY

The biggest reason for my optimism is a healthy Josh Bard; with a competant backup, Eric Wedge should feel more comfortable sitting Martinez twice a week if need be. Martinez’s offense faded in July and August because he was better even tired than Tim Laker.

OPS by month (2004)

April: .799
May: .939
June: .968
July: .866
August: .789
September: .748

Victor will never be mistaken for a great defensive catcher, but posting .285 EQAs forgive a lot of shortcomings behind the plate.

1B Ben Broussard
2004 WARP: 4.5
Rating: SELL

Broussard posted ungodly numbers with RISP last season:

Situational OPS (2004)

Runners on: .903
RISP: .954
RISP (2 outs): .911
Bases loaded: 2.238

That’s not going to happen again, and should reduce Broussard’s stature a bit. Ben has some things going for him, though: he’s a patient hitter (52 walks in 470 ABs), has decent power, and is not a liability at first base. But he’s not a player you should pay a ton of money to, and with Michael Aubrey a year away, Broussard may be moved after the season. For this year, Ben should get some more looks against left-handers, as Jose Hernandez is going be more a utility infielder than a platoon players.

2B Ronnie Belliard
2004 WARP: 4.6
Rating: SELL

Belliard’s torrid April turned an otherwise average year into an All-Star appearance. Average is fine with me for what the Indians are paying him. The odds of Belliard making another All-Star team is slightly higher than Butch Davis getting another NFL head coaching job, but he’s still a nice complementary player.

SS Jhonny Peralta/Brandon Phillips
Rating: BUY/HOLD

Peralta is probably the front-runner here, but Phillips is still in the picture. Whoever wins the job is going to be put under the microscope given the guy who used to play there. I like Peralta’s bat better than Phillips’, but Brandon is the better defender. If the Indians fail to pick up Belliard’s 2006 option, the problem resolves itself, but for this year, the loser gets banished to AAA. I’m betting on Peralta winning the job and not relinquishing it. He’s not a rookie anymore, but I think he could put up numbers similar to last year’s ROY, Bobby Crosby.

3B Aaron Boone
Rating: HOLD

Another of the horde of decent players on the roster, Boone represents a defensive upgrade at third base, and probably a slight downgrade in offense. He probably won’t steal 30 bases again, especially after two knee surgeries. His lack plate discipline doesn’t endear him to statheads, but he should bat down enough in the lineup so his propensity to hack shouldn’t matter as much.

LF Casey Blake
2004 WARP: 4.3
Rating: SELL

Moving right on the defensive spectrum automatically decreases his value, and Blake’s 2004 looks like a career year, so I think Casey is due for a big dropoff in 2005. I have no qualms about his defense, given that he’s essentially replacing Matt “Immovable” Lawton; it’s the offense that concerns me. Hitting 28 home runs at age 30 isn’t necessary a harbinger of future power exploits, especially after a career spent mostly bouncing around the minors.

CF Coco Crisp
2004 WARP: 3.2
Rating: HOLD

At this point, Coco Crisp is essentially Kenny Lofton minus the stolen bases and plate discipline. Which doesn’t really say much at all other than to demonstrate why I’m still skeptical about Crisp’s viability as an everyday outfielder. The encouraging thing is that Coco has a minor-league history of taking walks and stealing bases. With Grady Sizemore, a better fielder, waiting in the wings, Crisp has to become a better leadoff threat in order to play a corner.

RF Juan Gonzalez
2004 WARP: 0.3
Rating: BUY

Ok, I’m a glutton for punishment, maybe because last time I saw Gonzo in an Indians uniform, he had a comeback season. I’ll settle for 400 ABs and 20 HR.

DH Travis Hafner
2004 WARP: 6.6
Rating: HOLD

There’s really nowhere else to go but down for Pronk, but I don’t see too much of a fall-off. The peripherals are still strong, and Hafner is player who seems be to fine with being a full-time DH. If Gonzalez is hitting behind him, he should get enough pitches to mash.

Instead of the standard comments, I’m going to treat the projected 25-man roster as a stock portfolio. I’ll give each player an analyst rating: strong buy, buy, hold, sell, or strong sell. Note that for some players, a “sell” rating isn’t necessarily bad; it just means that I think they’re overvalued at the moment. I’ll be using Baseball Prospectus’ WARP as the baseline for my analysis. I’ll repeat this exercise a couple times during the year, and you can make fun of me then if you’d like. Here goes…

The Starters

LHSP CC Sabathia
2004 WARP: 6.1
Rating: HOLD

Although Sabathia has come into camp 10-15 pounds lighter, I don’t see too much upside. He’s still a good pitcher, and with a better bullpen I could easily see him win a couple more games. But that would be a superficial gain in value, not a real gain. Regardless of his age, Sabathia has been a remarkably cosistent pitcher since he joined the Indians at the tender age of 20; he’s posted WARPs of 5.6, 6.5, 6.9, and 6.1 in his first four seasons. That’s pretty incredible if you think about it, given the flameout rates of young pitchers. CC is definitely still the best pitcher on the staff, but I think his career has reached a plateau.

RHSP Jake Westbrook
2004 WARP: 8.4
Rating: SELL

Westbrook isn’t going to fall off the face of the earth, but expecting him to be one of the top 5 pitchers in the AL again is too much to ask. I’ve beaten the dead horse enough recently, so I’ll just leave it at that.

RHSP Kevin Millwood
2004 WARP: 2.4
Rating: BUY

Of course he’s going to beat that WARP if healthy. The question is by how much. Probably what you’re looking at is the 2003 version of Millwood, which isn’t an ace by any stretch of the imagination but for what the Indians are looking for will fit in just fine. He probably should be the team’s #2 by season’s end.

LHSP Cliff Lee
2004 WARP: 3.4
Rating: BUY

This is the wild card of the staff. Lee’s strikeout rates held even as he struggled in July and August, so I’m banking on a big jump this season. His early career numbers resemble the struggles of Matt Clement in his first few seasons; hopefully that’s a good sign.

RHSP Scott Elarton
2004 WARP: 2.7
Rating: STRONG SELL

A lot of things point to Elarton’s second half being a fluke. The defense behind him saved him more than even Jake Westbrook; The Hardball Times’ Fielding Independent Pitching (which is an approximation of a pitchers’ ERA if a league-average defense was behind him) for Elarton was 5.87, almost a run and a half higher than his real ERA. Now perhaps having Sizemore, Crisp, and Gerut in the outfield during a lot of his starts helped out, but those aren’t encouraging numbers regardless. The percentage of batted balls turned into outs for Elarton was .764, highest on the staff (minimum 20 innings pitched). Given the tenuous nature of the 5th spot in the rotation, I’ll be very surprised if Elarton stays in the rotation through June.

Now that an Indian has been implicated in the ever-widening circle of alleged steroids users, I guess I should comment on the situation. Others have done so more eloquently and succintly, but what’s another opinion?

The foundations for this scandal was laid by baseball itself. By not inserting a testing program years ago, by not really addressing the problem until late last year, Bud Selig and the Players’ Association has set themselves up for this current frenzy. There’s a lot of other parties involved, and none of them really look good. Former players such as Jose Canseco look like opportunists, the media looks like the Salem elders, and the game itself has taken another hit.

Dennis Maniloff’s recent column on the scandal is free of a lot of the hysteria that has accompanied Jose Canseco’s book. Here’s my favorite part of it:

Proving Canseco lied about any of them is the sticky wicket. In the end, all the accused really can present as evidence is their character, their resume, their believability. When Canseco says he injected McGwire in the bathroom area of the clubhouse, what can McGwire offer years removed as rebuttal, beyond his word?

It might not be fair, but it’s reality.

Exactly. No matter what Mark McGwire or Ivan Rodriguez or Juan Gonzalez say, they can’t remove the accusation from the public’s mind. The only real way to reverse these accusations is to sue Canseco, but how do you prove anything when it’s a he-said, he-said situation? Even if you point out the inaccuracies in the book, even if you infer that Canseco is simply trying to make a buck, I don’t see how any of the players implicated in the book can prove he was lying, even if they never took steroids.

In the end, it comes down to a matter of belief. Some people are going to believe that 75% of the players in baseball are juiced, and nothing’s going to change their mind. Because the burden of proof rests with the player to defend himself, what evidence can they put forth other than their word? That’s why this subject won’t be going away.

I’ve never thought of Juan Gonzalez as a muscular guy; he was more of a wiry-strong player, whose body hasn’t changed that much since he broke in with the Rangers. I don’t think he took steroids, but I have no way to prove it. That’s what makes this whole situation so frustrating for baseball fans like myself. As the years roll by, and as the new testing policy takes effect, accusations on current players should die down, but no amount of time will dim the cry of those who feel Barry Bonds’ 73 home runs in 2001 should be expunged from the annals of baseball.

Purchased the Contract of OF Juan Gonzalez

This move is mandated by a clause in Gonzalez’s contract. All Juan has to do to make the club is to stay healthy, which is far from a sure thing. I’m not expecting much, and the Indians have a couple backup plans just in case he doesn’t work out health-wise, including Grady Sizemore and Ryan Ludwick. Jody Gerut should be ready in June, which would make things even more interesting in the event that everyone’s still healthy. But whenever you bring in this type of player, you always start to think of how good he can be if healthy. 2001 wasn’t that long ago, right?

Placed LHP Jason Stanford on the 60-Day Disabled List (elbow)

The doppleganger to the Gonzalez purchase. Stanford is out until at least the All-Star Break, and probably won’t contribute much if any innings for the Indians this season. Jody Gerut should be the only player (knock on wood) to join Stanford on the 60-day DL before the beginning of the season.

Signed LHP Cliff Bartosh, RHP Rafael Betancourt, RHP Jake Dittler, OF Ryan Ludwick, LHP Jason Stanford, and LHP Brian Tallet to 2005 Contracts

Ludwick is the only one of this group that’s a lock to make the club, although Betancourt should be a favorite for one of the two bullpen spots. Bartosh and Tallet are the third and fourth left-handed relievers on the depth chart, and should go to Buffalo. Dittler’s probably going to start in Akron, where he’ll get a second shot at AA hitters.

Signed OF Darren Bragg to a minor-league contract

AAA fodder, at best. He’s bumped around several organizations lately, including some major-league stints, but a lot of bad things would have to happen for Bragg to appear in an Indians uniform.

Some randomness:

I’ve sponsored my first baseball-reference page. And the winner is……..Jhonny Peralta. He’s a guy I’ve liked since 2002, when he broke out in AA with 15 homers at the age of 20. Now, at 23, he’s probably going to be the Indians’ starting shortstop. He’s replacing a local icon, but I think he’ll be fine. I considered sponsoring Kyle “These Boots Were Made for Walking” Denney or Fernando Cabrera as well, but alas, my budget can stretch only so far. Oh yeah, I’ll certainly take suggestions on the Peralta page’s caption, as the best I could come up with was a lame comment on the spelling of his name.

If you haven’t checked out ‘Till You’re Blue in the Face, I urge you to do so. It’s more a prospect blog than a Royals blog; he ranks a prospect a day, giving each prospect a 1-5 star rating and an ETA. For those of you with fantasy keeper leagues, or if you’re just interested in prospects, it’s a great read. Here’s some of his Indians reports:

Ryan Goleski
Adam Miller
Jake Gautreau
Sean Smith
Pat Osborn
Michael Aubrey
Tom Mastny

Spring Training Talk

Looking over the list of NRIs, there’s a couple of guys I’m going to keep my eye on, beyond Juan Gonzalez and Paul Shuey. The first guy is Steve Watkins, a pitcher from the Padre organization. He posted pretty good peripherals between Mobile and Portland last year, and he could be called upon for a bullpen job sometime this year. The other one is John Rodriguez, from the Yankee organization. He had a career year for the Clippers in 2004, slugging .542 for Columbus. He’s a center fielder by trade, so he might be a short-term fix if needed. Obviously there’s also “internal” NRIs like Ryan Garko, Jake Robbins, and Billy Traber (although technically he was a minor-league signing) as well. Unfortunately for this year’s class, there aren’t that many opportunities to make the club; Ryan Ludwick is out of options, so he’s the fourth outfielder if healthy, and both backup infield spots are spoken with Jose Hernandez and Alex Cora signed to major-league deals. The best opportunity for an NRI to make the club is Juan Gonzalez, but after that I don’t think there’s an opening.

Matt Miller, Rafael Betancourt, and Jason Davis are probably the front-runners for the two open bullpen slots. If you assume Davis is going to be the “6th starter”, then it’s really Miller vs. Betancourt, with Paul Shuey on the periphery. One of Betancourt or Miller might be dealt before the rosters are finalized, which is amazing considering that those two were probably the team’s best relievers last year.

Oh yeah, here’s the annual Jason Bere comeback article.

Today (or yesterday), the Twins signed 2004 AL Cy Young winner Johan Santana to a four-year contract. Essentially, Minnesota got Santana for two extra years, because he was eligible for free agency after the 2006 season. The specific details haven’t been released by the team, but several reports have the bulk of the money coming in years three and four of the deal, which makes sense; those are the years that the Twins essentially “bought out.” This contract is definitely risky for a team with a smaller payroll, but in my opinion it’s a risk you almost have to take. The Twins are never going to be able to sign a pitcher like Santana on the free agent market, and if Johan stays healthy, he’ll be well worth what he’s getting even in 2007 and 2008.

Of all the aspects of player-management bargaining, I think the arbitration process is the most useful part for both sides. Player and management swap salaries, and an arbitrator picks one number or the other; he can’t split the difference. Most often, though, deals get worked out before the hearing takes place because the arbitration hearing serves as a deadline for both sides. For the Indians, they haven’t had a player go to arbitration since 1991.One of the reasons for this streak was former GM John Hart’s tendency to lock players up before they became eligible. Hart’s strategy has been copied in the years since, but I’ve gradually come to see the upsides and downsides of it. Of course the upsides are readily apparent; the team obtains cost certainty, and if the player stays healthy and gets better, the deal’s an absolute bargain.

However, if you’ve read Outside the Lines’ account of the Manny Ramirez contract negotiations, the fact that the Indians had Manny locked up below market value played a part in his decision to leave the Indians. Yes, the Indians would have paid more in the short term, especially if the club had lost in arbitration. But at least the player has some sense of being paid what he’s worth. Sometimes these arbitration hearings lead to long-term deals like the one Johan Santana just signed. Ichiro signed a long-term contract with the Mariners in a similar circumstance, as did Albert Pujols with the Cardinals, as did Roy Halladay with the Blue Jays.

Another downside to the Hart-style contract is if the player gets hurt, a la Jaret Wright. You lose some degree of flexibility when you sign a player to a long-term deal, and if you pick the wrong guy to lock up, you’ll get burned. The Blue Jays are finding this out with Eric Hinske. Heck, the Twins have only to look at Joe Mays to remind them of what can happen when you sign a pitcher to a long-term deal.

Now I’m not categorically against long-term deals with young players, but I’m also less inclined the think they’re a magic bullet. Especially if you want to keep a player beyond six years. If a player is signed through his sixth season, there’s no leverage on the team’s part in contract negotiations. The Indians may run into this problem with CC Sabathia, who’s eligible for free agency in 2006 at the age of 26. My hope is that the two sides get together right after this season is complete and work out a long-term deal. However, there’s no reason for Sabathia to agree to an extension because the Indians are probably going to pay him $7M or so in 2006 (he has an option, but I believe it vests with a certain amount of innings pitched). Ironically, Sabathia’s agent was Jeff Moorad, who was Manny Ramirez’s agent. Fortunately, Moorad is now employed by the Arizona Diamondbacks, but the contract remains.