Baseball (Archive)

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Some Surprises, and Some Not-so-Surprises

At the end of this month Player Development Director John Farrell likes to make promotions. With the exception of the Buffalo starters and some injuries in Akron, the system is full of players who have played to and even above expectations. Here’s a couple prospects you probably know about, and a couple you didn’t even know existed:

1B Michael Aubrey, Kinston (A+) Age 22

171 AB, .322/.406/.538, 8 HR, 11 2B, 23 SO, 17 BB

If the season ended today, I’d have a tough decision naming the Indians’ #1 prospect. But for now, Aubrey gets the nod given his all-around game and his impressive debut at a fairly high level. He’s probably one of the most polished hitting prospects in the minors, and is said to have Gold Glove potential at first base. I’ve seen some comparisons to Rockies superstar Todd Helton, and while every promising player is the next somebody, you can see the similarities. He’s going to be promoted to Akron soon, and that’s a pretty big test for a prospect. But given his plate discipline, I don’t think he’ll have too much trouble moving quickly through the high minors and arrive in Cleveland some time next year. This is the Indians’ first baseman for the next ten years.

OF Franklin Gutierrez, Akron (AA) Age 21

187 AB, .299/.374/.449, 16 2B, 4 HR, 57 SO, 18 BB

He’d be the #1 prospect for a lot of teams. His upside is a little higher that Aubrey’s, but there’s more risk here. He’s doing very well in AA considering his age, and on pace to eclipse the numbers Grady Sizemore put up here last season. He has definite power potential, and the amount of doubles he’s been hitting shows that. His plate discipline is improving a bit, and if continues to do so, he should see Cleveland in late 2005 or early 2006 as either a center fielder or a right fielder. Trading Milton Bradley certainly hurt the club in the short-term (he’d be an obvious upgrade over Alex Escobar/Coco Crisp), but Mark Shapiro definitely received some outstanding prospects for him.

OF Grady Sizemore, Buffalo (AAA) Age 21

203 AB, .261/.343/.414, 9 2B, 5 3B, 4 HR, 36 SO, 24 BB

His numbers may seem a bit pedestrian compared to Aubrey and Gutierrez, but Grady has picked up the pace in the last two weeks. In Spring Training, he lost 15 pounds due to sickness, and started out of the gates slow. But there are still a lot to like about Grady; he’s still walking, and the power is coming. In a perfect world, he’d be a center fielder in Cleveland, but he may have to move over to left field when Matt Lawton leaves. He should make his major-league debut in August or September.

RHP Andrew Brown, Akron (AA) Age 23

40.1 IP, 4.02 ERA, 58 SO, 14 BB (Jacksonville)

9.2 IP, 1.86 ERA, 15 SO, 4 BB (Akron)

When evaluating a minor-league pitcher, I go right past wins/losses and ERA to his strikeouts and walks. And I like what I see with Brown. Sidelined with arm problems last year, he was one of the players Mark Shapiro considered for the PTBNL in the Milton Bradley trade. And although he didn’t have to choose anyone until the end of June, Brown’s numbers made the choice extremely easy. He’ll probably be promoted to Buffalo at the end of the month, and may get a September callup. I’d really like to see him stay a starter, and hopefully the Indians can withstand the temptation throw him into the bullpen because of a need in Cleveland. Of course, the obvious caveat with Brown is if he can stay injury-free, but guys who strikeout 73 in 51 innings don’t come along every day.

RHP Adam Miller, Lake County (A-) Age 19

55.0 IP, 2.95 ERA, 65 SO, 17 BB

High school pitchers are the riskiest of propositions for clubs to draft high, but the Indians seem to hit the jackpot with Miller. Yes, he’s still in low A-ball, there’s always the risk of injury, and TINSTAAP. But Miller is dominating hitters with a fastball that reaches 95 mph, and a very good slider. Obviously I’m not going to pencil him into the Cleveland rotation yet (I’ll save that conversation for when he gets to Akron), but I’m calling your attention to him now.

CA Ryan Garko, Kinston (A+) Age 23

170 AB, .341/.432/.618, 14 2B, 11 HR, 26 SO, 15 BB

He’s putting up gaudy numbers, but he needs to be moved fast to see how good he really is. Garko was drafted last year as a college senior, and his age is going cloud any discussions of his prospect status. I’m pleasantly surprised, but I’ll see how he does in AA first. His upside is a guy like Matt LeCroy, who can mash and play the catcher position passably.

RHP Fausto Carmona, Kinston (A+) Age 20

58.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 50 SO, 18 BB

The fact that his strikeout ratios are improving after a promotion is definitely encouraging. Last year, he dominated the South Atlantic League with pinpoint control. Now he’s missing bats, and will probably move to Akron soon. He has a “projectable frame”, so there is still some room for his stuff to get a little better.

Others that are worthy: Jake Dittler, Ryan Goleski, Kyle Denney, Dan Denham, Nathan Panther, Brandon Pinckney, Kevin Kouzmanoff

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Transactions

Demoted RHRP Chip Southerland to Extended Spring from Lake County (A-)

Promoted RHRP Bo Ashabraner to Lake County (A-) from Extended Spring

Traded RHSP Robert Ellis (AAA) to the Philadelphia Phillies for “Future Considerations”

Reinstated RHSP Kyle Denney (AAA) from the Disabled List (knee)

Outrighted RHSP Chad Durbin to Buffalo (AAA)

After a two hiatus, the “Free Kyle Denney” movement is about to pick up steam. With only Joe Dawley standing between him and the majors, tonight’s start may give Denney his ticket to Cleveland. Dawley will get at least one more start against Anaheim, so he’ll have an opportunity to stay in Cleveland’s rotation.

I guess SWB needed another body; that’s the only rationale I have for them to trade for Ellis. Or maybe they sent back another useless body in return.

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Who Are These Guys?

I can’t figure out who the Indians are.

Two weeks ago, they swept the Devil Rays at home.

One week ago, they got swept by the Devil Rays, and eventually lost 7 straight.

This weekend, they beat Oakland in games started by Barry Zito, Rich Harden, and Tim Hudson. The Indians starters were Cliff Lee, Joe Dawley, and Jason Davis.

Looking past the events of the weekend, which don’t really say much about how good the Indians are, what’s more encouraging is the apparent renaissance of Jason Davis as a big-league pitcher, and the real strength of this team, the first five hitters in the lineup. And Ronnie Belliard against left-handers.

Baseball Prospectus lists VORP (Value over Replacement Player) by position. Here’s where Lawton, Vizquel, Gerut, Martinez, Hafner, and Belliard rank among American League players for their position:

Matt Lawton – 17.3 (4th)

Omar Vizquel – 14.2 (4th)

Jody Gerut – 14.7 (2nd)

Victor Martinez – 15.5 (4th)

Travis Hafner – 19.5 (3rd)

Ronnie Belliard – 20.9 (2nd)

Note that Gerut for this exercise is still considered mainly a right fielder.

Now, I’ll delve a little deeper into these top five hitters.

Versus right-handed pitching, the first five in the Indians’ order is a nightmare:

Matt Lawton – .342/.410/.556/.966

Omar Vizquel – .350/.447/.427/.874

Jody Gerut – .349/.444/.594/1.038

Victor Martinez – .333/.388/.618/1.006

Travis Hafner – .330/.414/.670/1.085

But against left-handed pitching, the nightmare is on the Indians:

Matt Lawton – .274/.343/.355/.698

Omar Vizquel – .233/.256/.329/.585

Jody Gerut – .192/.292/.256/.549

Victor Martinez – .176/.295/.333/.628

Travis Hafner – .259/.348/.345/.693

So, you see why the Indians have the major’s worst record versus a left-handed starter. The obvious conclusion is that the Indians absolutely positively need a lefty-masher. In theory, that shouldn’t be too difficult to come by, and the Indians have recently acquired two of them in Ryan Ludwick and prospect Franklin Gutierrez. But Ludwick is probably out until after the All-Star Break, and Gutierrez is a good 2 years away from any meaningful contribution. A guy who was supposed to help, Alex Escobar, hasn’t really provided anything at all. So you’re left with Ronnie Belliard, Lou Merloni at first (!), and pray for rain.

Thank goodness Kenny Rogers pitched on Sunday.

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Transactions

Recalled RHSP Joe Dawley to Cleveland

Designated RHSP Chad Durbin for Assignment

Dawley will probably get one shot at a start, but given the current starting situation, if he’s half-way decent, he might stick around for a couple weeks. Necessity is the mother of invention, and the need for a 5th starter has provided a chance for a guy who, quite frankly, needs it. He’s only had a couple cups of coffee with the Atlanta Braves, and has had pretty good strikeout ratios his entire professional career. He struck out 73 in 56.2 IP last year, and whiffed 136 in 140 innings in 2002, both with Richmond.

Another guy the Indians brought in is Lou Pote, formerly of the Anaheim Angels, and fresh off a short stint in Japan. Pote is more of a middle reliever, a guy who’s probably at his best throwing 3-4 inning stretches. He’ll most likely be the longman for this team, and may snag a spot start or two if he sticks around long enough.

The Indians have had pretty decent success in getting free talent the last couple of years, with Casey Blake and Rafael Betancourt being the best examples. So given the failures thus far of Scott Stewart and Jeriome Robertson, who the Indians traded decent prospects for, maybe they’re going back to that mindset again. Russ Branyan and Rick White, who were gotten for organizational drones, are also paying some dividends. Jason Anderson was pitching well before getting injured, and the Indians are probably hoping that he clears waivers because of him being on the DL.

Cleveland sportswriters have termed this type of player acquisition “digging in dumpsters” or “bargain-basement shopping”. Well, they are partially right, because sometimes someone’s trash is another’s treasure.

From the Injury Front

Ryan Ludwick is going to start hitting again in early June. What does this mean? When Ludwick returns, he’ll probably replace Coco Crisp as the fourth outfielder, and will sub for Travis Hafner, Jody Gerut, and Ben Broussard against a left-handed pitcher. Or the Indians could get really creative and bring up Russ Branyan, send down Broussard, and platoon Branyan and Ludwick at first. Regardless, getting Ludwick back would be a real shot in the arm for the offense, which has just been plain awful against left-handed pitching.

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Bullpen Move #485670

Optioned LHRP Scott Stewart to Buffalo (AAA)

Acquired RHRP Lou Pote from the Oakland Athletics for Cash

Designated RHRP Jason Anderson (AAA) for Assignment

Pote will be with the Indians tomorrow, so another roster move is probably imminant in order to clear a 40-man roster spot. The wire reports I’ve seen so far weren’t really clear on the roster mechanics. For now, I’m assuming Stewart is still on the 40-man roster. The scary thing about Stewart is that the Indians don’t really know why he’s svcking this much this year. So he’ll be thrown back to Buffalo to intermingle with the remnants of past failed experiments to see if he can find “it” again.

As for the on-the-field developments….I went to the game tonight, and the result didn’t change that much from when I’ve watched the Tribe on TV. Although it was nice to see a non-Cleveland bullpen arm implode…I was wondering the Indians had cornerned the market on bullpen implosions. Casey Blake must be reading the minor-league boxscores, and seeing Russell Branyan is making a legitimate claim to be recalled, judging by his sudden power surge. Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez continue to impress. Cliff Bartosh continues to show why the Padres and Tigers exposed him on waivers last year.

EDIT: Just saw via the Bisons’ website that Jason Anderdson was designated for assignment. It’s still a bit frustrating that most mainstream baseball articles still don’t have a basic understanding of roster mechanics.

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Transactions

Placed 3B Pat Osborn (A+) on the Disabled List (hamstring)

Promoted IF Brett Parker to Kinston (A+) from Extended Spring

Placed LHRP Shea Douglas (A+) on the Disabled List (shoulder)

Promoted LHRP David Martinez to Kinston (A+) from Lake County (A-)

Demoted RHSP Fausto Carmona to Kinston (A+) from Akron (AA)

Released LHRP Marcos Mendoza from Akron (AA)

Reinstated RHSP Kyle Evans from the Disabled List (AA)

Sent RHRP Scott Sturkie (AA) to the Atlanta Braves to complete the Russell Branyan trade

Demoted RHRP Jake Robbins to Akron (AA) from Buffalo (AAA)

Released RHRP Luther Hackman from Buffalo (AAA)

Signed free agent RHSP Scott Elarton to a minor-league contract; Assigned him to Buffalo

Sent RHSP Jeff D’Amico to Lake County (A-) for Rehab Assignment

The big news here is the signing of Scott Elarton. He’ll get a start or three in Buffalo, and if successful, might get a shot at the Cleveland rotation. He was dumped by the Rockies last week after posting an ERA of 9.80. Basically more grist for the mill. Since the internal starter options are either injured or struggling, I’d expect more of these kind of moves until the rotation gets stabilized a bit.

Scott Sturkie, the PTBNL in the Branyan trade, has been pitching well for the Aeros this year, and is a little better player than I expected to be going to Atlanta. He’s posted very good ERAs his entire minor-league career, but is getting up there in age, and has never had good strikeout ratios. But he’s still a nice guy to have floating around your system.

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Transactions

Gave IF Zach Sorensen (AA) his outright release

In Other News…

Jeff D’Amico is going to make a rehab start in Lake County this Monday, and, given the lack of other healthy starter candidates, will probably return to be the 5th starter.

The lack of starting pitcher depth has been a concern for me this entire season, and now it might get worse before it gets better. Jason Stanford is probably going to be out until July, Kyle Denney may be on the shelf a month, and Jason Davis has been mostly awful this season. What is Jason’s problem? Who knows, but things like this will happen with a young, inexperienced pitcher. The Indians really have no choice but to keep him in the rotation, as there really are no other viable options within the organization right now.

Victor Martinez is breaking out. He hit his 8th home run last night, and is in the process of catapulting himself into an elite group of catchers. If the All-Star selections were made today, manager Joe Torre would be very hard-pressed to leave Victor off the team. Unfortunately for Victor, the American League is loaded with offensive catchers this year. Ivan Rodriguez returned to the AL after a one year absence, Jorge Posada looks to be having a career (even an MVP) year, Jason Varitek isn’t far behind Posada’s start, and Javy Lopez jumped to the AL after playing his entire career with the Atlanta Braves. And this isn’t counting what the catching situation would be if phenom Joe Mauer hadn’t hurt his knee in the first series of the year.

Here’s Victor’s competition:

Jorge Posada 108 AB, .324/.456/.667/1.123, 13 2B, 8 HR

Jason Varitek 128 AB, .297/.416/.516/.913, 7 2B, 7 HR

Victor Martinez 133 AB, .293/.366/.541/.907, 9 2B, 8 HR

Ivan Rodriguez 159 AB, .340/.376/.522/.898, 8 2B, 7 HR

Javy Lopez 150 AB, .333/.388/.500/.888, 7 2B, 6 HR

Is 2004 The Year of the Catcher? It’s still early, but it’s looking that way.

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A Flurry of Moves

Received RHSP Andrew Brown (AA) from the Los Angeles Dodgers to complete the Milton Bradley trade

Added RHSP Andrew Brown to the 40-man Roster; Optioned him to Akron (AA)

Transferred OF Ryan Ludwick to the 60-day Disabled List (knee)

Claimed RHSP Joe Dawley (AAA) off waivers from the Kansas City Royals; Optioned him to Buffalo (AAA)

Transferred LHSP Jason Stanford to the 60-day Disabled List (forearm)

Placed RHSP Travis Foley (AA) on the Disabled List (AA-elbow)

Promoted RHSP Fausto Carmona to Akron (AA) from Kinston (A+)

Whoa.

First things first. Andrew Brown was tabbed by the Indians to be the PTBNL from the Milton Bradley trade. Make no mistake about it, he’s not a throw-in. He originally was drafted by the Braves, and sent to the Dodgers in the Gary Sheffield trade. He missed most of 2003 because of a very large bone spur in his throwing elbow, but started 2004 with a bang, striking out 58 in 40 innings, a eye-popping ratio. But he’s fairly old (23) and does have durability concerns. Judging by the two players received, my first impression is that the Indians got real value for Bradley.

Next, the Indians claimed vetern starter Joe Dawley off waivers. This move was designed to provide some help for Buffalo’s pitching staff, as Dawley has excelled as a AAA starter the past three years. Whether his good numbers translates to the majors is a big question mark, though. The Indians certainly need a 5th starter, as Jeff D’Amico is on the shelf, Kyle Denney was just placed on the disabled list with a knee injury, and Chad Durbin has been very underwhelming.

To make room for these two, Ryan Ludwick and Jason Stanford were both transferred to the 60-day Disabled List. Both Ludwick and Stanford are still on schedule to come back at the projected time, so this was mainly a procedural move.

Also, Fausto Carmona will get at least one start in Akron, as he was promoted to take Travis Foley’s place in the rotation. Hopefully Foley is all right, but the dreaded “elbow soreness” is never a good sign.