Ryan

The Indians are essentially one (or two) steps away from finishing their offseason business after Monday’s moves.

Re-signed 2B Ronnie Belliard to a one year, $3M contract (club option for 2006), avoiding arbitration

Re-signed LHP Mariano Gomez to a minor-league contract; Invited him to Spring Training

The Indians went with the status quo, keeping four of the five players who were still arbitration-eligible. Phelps is going to get a job with an American League club, and I think he’ll be a valuable part-time player for somebody. The Indians, however, didn’t want to keep two full-time DHs in Hafner and Phelps, and with the addition of Jose Hernandez and the possible re-signing of Lou Merloni, another lefty-masher wasn’t needed. I get this line of thinking, but getting nothing for Phelps doesn’t really sit right with me.

Mariano Gomez was taken off the roster without having to pass through waivers because of the non-tender rules. The Indians seem to do this with at least one player a year. Mariano will probably return to Akron in 2005 if healthy.

$3M for Belliard is pretty good from the Indians’ standpoint, and the club option in 2006 is a nice touch. After Polanco went off the market (and the Indians were reportedly interested in him), Belliard was the next best option. Now this leaves Casey Blake as a right fielder, which I can live with. What is a bit disturbing are the rumors of Blake signing a multiple-year deal to avoid arbitration. This I think is an overreach for the Indians. Blake was an excellent pickup who paid off very nicely in the past two seasons. That being said, I wouldn’t feel that comfortable paying Blake based on his career year, especially considering he really doesn’t have a position on the team. Yes, Boone is only signed through 2005, but what if he has a good season and the club picks up his option? Franklin Gutierrez may be ready by then, and even if Blake has another 22-24 HR year as an outfielder, he’d be redundant. I’d rather the Indians take him to arbitration, and wait until next season to see if Blake is worth a two-year deal; there’s no rush to lock him up.

So now Mark Shapiro is back to looking for pitching. Kevin Millwood would be a nice fit, as would Orlando Hernandez, and also the newly non-tendered Wade Miller. Also he’s probably going to add one more infielder to the roster, probably Lou Merloni or a reasonable facsimile. I’d like to see a left-handed bat off the bench instead of Lou, maybe a guy like Ben Grieve would be a better fit, especially as an insurance policy in case Blake has to take over for an injured Aaron Boone. You could have Ludwick and Hernandez off the bench against left-handers, and Grieve off the bench against a right-hander. Just a thought.

Today is the day where a lot of new free agents will flood the market; today is non-tender day. Granted, most of these players won’t be the caliber of the top-tier free agents, but teams with modest payrolls like the Indians can find some nice bargains. Guys like Jacque Jones, Jay Gibbons, and Josh Fogg might become available if clubs decline to offer their arbitration-eligible players salary arbitration for next season.

The Indians have four players who are eligible for arbitration still unsigned as of this moment: David Riske, Ronnie Belliard, Casey Blake, and Jake Westbrook. Westbrook and Blake are locks to stay, but Belliard and Riske may be cut loose. I really haven’t seen or heard anything regarding Riske’s status, but ever since the Hernandez signing the Indians have been adament that they’d either retain Belliard or sign a free agent. My top choice among the 2B options, Placido Polanco, has apparently accepted (free agent) arbitration with the Phillies, so he isn’t going anywhere for the moment, although the Phillies may try to trade him. So given the other options, retaining Belliard looks to be the best choice. $3M or so should get Belliard signed, which leaves about $5M to get a pitcher. Thankfully, that would take them out of the Eric Milton “sweepstakes,” which is one bidding war I didn’t want the Indians participating in.

The Indians have been active in the minor-league free agent market, though.

Signed RHP Denny Stark, LHP Chad Zerbe and IF Mike Kinkade to minor-league contracts; Invited them to Spring Training

Stark and Zerbe are local guys (Stark graduated from my alma mater, Toledo, and Zerbe was born in Findlay). Both are Buffalo-bound unless something drastic happens. Kinkade is returning to the States after an unsuccessful stint in Japan. He has the uncanny knack of getting hit by the pitch: he accumulated 16 of them (in 162 ABs!) while with the Dodgers in 2003. He’s a corner infielder who can also play the outfield, something the Indians don’t exactly need right now, so he should be a nice addition to the defending IL champions.

This will finish up my reviews of the players who were on the 40-man roster to end the season.

RHP Kyle Denney – Age 27
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
2004 VORP: -5.9
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2007)

Sometimes, guys like Denney will make a major-league career for themselves. Denney has never been graced with prospect accolades, or even a mere mention in the litanies of prospects. But Denney has quietly made his way through the minors, stepping over high-ceiling arms, can’t-miss prospects, and pitchers with better stuff. And, if he sticks on the roster, he’ll go to Spring Training with a chance to win a major-league job. Why? Because he can pitch. ‘Stuff’ is something we all like to fixate on with a pitcher; does he have a 95 mph fastball, does he have a sick slider, or a 12-6 curve? But the unmentioned question remains, can he pitch? Because unless you know what you’re doing on the mound, your stuff doesn’t matter; ask Jason Davis. Denney started the year strong with Bisons (2.41 ERA as of June 26), and never really recovered after suffering a knee injury while pitching in Columbus. I think if the Indians give him another chance next season, be it as the longman or as an emergency starter, they won’t be sorry.

OF Grady Sizemore – Age 22
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
2004 EQA: .258
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2006 or 2007)

Ready or not, Sizemore has arrived. The departure of Matt Lawton pretty much assures Sizemore will be playing everyday, be it in center or left field. Like most young players, Grady’s going to have a learning curve, but he’s as good a position prospect as the Indians have, and should be a fixture in the outfield for years to come. The biggest question regarding Sizemore is whether he’s more of a leadoff, base-stealing threat or a run producer. That question should answer itself over the next couple years, but for now Sizemore should gain his sea-legs at the bottom of the Indian order.

3B/OF Corey Smith – Age 22
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2007)

And then we have Corey Smith. Unlike Sizemore, Smith hasn’t shown one iota of promise in the five seasons since the Indians drafted him in the first round. Now, after the Indians showed him more patience than he really deserved, Smith is going to the outfield in order to save some semblance of his career. He still has the tools he had in 2000, so there’s a chance he’ll have that breakout season. But I would have to think if it doesn’t happen in 2005, he’s gone.

LHP Jason Stanford – Age 27
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2006 or 2007)

Before there was Denney, there was Jason Stanford, an undrafted free agent who made it to the majors by being able to pitch. Stanford is currently on the shelf with an elbow injury, and it’s doubtful that Jason will even pitch before the All-Star Break, and that’s being generous.

RHP Kazuhito Tadano – Age 24
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
2004 VORP: 5.0
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2006 or 2007)

Although he started some games in 2004, the prevailing wisdom among the Indians coaching staff seems to be that Tadano may be better out of the bullpen. With that in mind, he’ll compete for the longman role in the spring, along with guys like Kyle Denney, Jeremy Guthrie, and others.

LHP Brian Tallet – Age 27
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2007)

With the additions of Arthur Rhodes, Scott Sauerbeck, and even Cliff Bartosh, Tallet may have a tough time making the Indians. He’ll be about 15 months removed from Tommy John surgery in April, so we should see him at almost full strength. I believe he has an option left, so worst case he’ll be pitching with Buffalo to begin the season.

With Matt Clement officially off the table, Mark Shapiro now has a decision to make. Right now there’s probably two pitchers (Perez and Lowe) left who’s worthy of a 3-year deal, two (Millwood and Milton) who are worthy of two-year deals, and the rest (Loaiza, Hernandez, Estes, Lima, etc) probably isn’t worth anything more than $3M. Going into the offseason, the #1 priority was getting a starting pitcher, but events have taken place that may force the Indians to forego a starter in favor of upgrading the team in other aspects. Is paying Eric Milton $21M really going to fix a hole in the rotation? What about paying Odalis Perez $18M? There comes a time where the cure is worse than the disease, and that time is rapidly approaching.

So now Shapiro has around $8M to spend, and no good starter to spend it on. Here’s his realistic options, given that Ronnie Belliard’s contract would be part of that $8M:

(1) Offer Belliard arbitration ($3M), sign Kevin Millwood ($5M)

Wouldn’t be a horrible turn of events, but this is nothing I’m going to get excited about. Belliard probably won’t be nearly as valuable as he was in 2004, but it’s reasonable for him to put a 260/330/400 while playing unspectacular defense. Kevin Millwood, back on the market a year after not getting a contract offer to his (or his agent’s) liking, is probably looking for a multi-year deal. Given the pitching market, 2 years/$10M looks like a fair offer. I think Millwood is a better pitcher than Milton, and should cost less. He’s not nearly the caliber of pitcher Matt Clement was, but there’s no one left on the market that good.

(2) Non-tender Belliard, sign Placido Polanco ($5M), sign Orlando Hernandez ($3M)

I like this option a little more than the previous one. When healthy, El Duque’s a pretty decent pitcher, and I think he’ll only be getting a one-year deal. I talked about Polanco previously; he’d be a perfect fit for this team, solidifing the infield defense and providing a bit of an upgrade on offense. I’d even consider offering him a three-year contract; I think he’s that good. Granted, these aren’t signings that would invigorate the fanbase, but they’re smart signings.

(3) Non-tender Belliard, sign Eric Milton ($7M), sign Stopgap 2B ($1M)

I mentioned smart signings in option #2, and this option isn’t one. Milton is a below-average pitcher who is extremely overrated. Look at his career statistics and tell me if he’s worth $7M a season. What would be even worse about signing Milton is that you downgrade second base. Yes, Belliard only cost $1M last year, but that doesn’t guarentee this stopgap would exceed expectations to the extent Belliard did. This would be a horrible turn of events.

(4) Non-tender Belliard, sign Odalis Perez ($6M), sign Miguel Cairo ($2M)

Slightly more palatable than Milton/Stopgap, but still not a good move. Cairo has been pretty much a part-timer the last couple seasons, so who knows what the Indians will be getting if they give him 450 at-bats. He’s an OK fielder, and his bat is worse than Belliard’s.

(5) Non-tender Belliard, sign Magglio Ordonez ($5-8M)

The only bad thing about this is that it would force Casey Blake to second base, something I don’t like. If Magglio’s knee is healthy (and yes, that’s a huge if), he’s a tremendous player, as most of you know all too well. He’s a good defender in right field, has a good arm, and is one of the best hitters in baseball. Problem is, he’s represented by Scott Boras, and hasn’t gotten a physical from anyone so far. If he’s healthy, I would even forego getting a pitcher and give him the entire $8M.

(6) Non-tender Belliard, sign Moises Alou ($5M), sign Placido Polanco ($5M), trade Blake

This is getting real creative, and there’s no way this is happening. But as long as I’m dreaming up options, I’ll add this one. Alou, while definitely in his decline phase, would be a nice bat to add to the lineup. Blake is probably tradable even if the Indians offer him arbitration. The issue is getting a starter in return for him. Again, this is pipe-dreaming, but who knows?

There’s a lot of other options, but most of them are variations on previous themes. If I had to pick one of them, #2 would probably be the best, mainly because I really like Polanco.

It looks like there’s some interest in Josh Phelps after all. Today’s Tampa Tribune says that the Indians asked the Devil Rays for prospect Wes Bankston. Bankston’s a good prospect, and that leads me to believe that the Indians might have some leverage if thy’re asking for players of this caliber. If they can turn Eric Crozier into Bankston, that would be a nifty move.

Also in the same article it mentions that Tim Laker has signed a minor-league deal with the D-Rays.

Driving to class a couple days ago, a sportscaster said something on the radio that made me shake my head. I’ll paraphrase what he said:

“The Indians signed infielder Jose Hernanez to a one-year contract yesterday. Hernandez, who is known for his strikeouts…”

That was pretty much it. He mentioned the name of the player, and that he strikes out a lot. And that’s it. He conveiniently left out that Hernandez hit 13 home runs in 211 at-bats, that he was a key member of the Dodgers’ playoff run, and that he plays several positions. He just assumed that strikeout=bad and that players who accumulate a lot of them are bad players. Let’s actually look at the numbers, shall we?

Strikeout Leaders, 2004
1. OF Adam Dunn (195)
2. 2B Mark Bellhorn (177)
3. OF Craig Wilson (169)
4. OF Corey Patterson (168)
5. OF Geoff Jenkins (152)
6. OF Brad Wilkerson (152)
7. OF Jim Edmonds (150)
8. 3B Hank Blalock (149)
9. OF Miguel Cabrera (148)
10. OF Andruw Jones (147)

There’s some pretty good players on that list. Something must be wrong here, right? Let’s look at the players who have struck out the least amount of times (min. 400 ABs):

1. C AJ Pierzynski (27)
2. IF Eric Young (28)
3. IF Deivi Cruz (32)
4. OF Juan Pierre (35)
5. 1B Sean Casey (36)
6. 2B Placido Polanco (39)
7. OF Endy Chavez (40)
8. 3B Edgar Alfonso (40)
9. C Toby Hall (41)
10. 2B Joey Cora (41)

After a cursory glance, it doesn’t look like strikeout totals really mean much. After all, a strikeout, for all its attention by the media, is just another out. In the grand scheme of things, the difference between a popfly to right field is essentially the same outcome as a swinging strikeout. So why don’t writers or sportscasters rip a player based on all his groundouts to second? Because it isn’t as romantic as a strikeout. After all, Mighty Casey doesn’t just make an out, he strikes out. A batting average is essentially the percentage of times a batter does not make an out or reach on an error. Nowhere in my description did I mention the word ‘strikeout’.

Yes, there are cases where a bad player strikes out a lot. And there are cases where a good player does not strike out very often. But in no case can you assert that a large amount of strikeouts is always indicative of a bad player or the lack of strikeouts always indicates a good player. It’s what the player does when he isn’t making outs that proves his worth, not the outs themselves.

So next time an announcer remarks that a certain player is leading the league in strikeouts, just go the Internet and look up his statistics. You know, the ones that tell you how good he really is.

[EDIT] “Eric” changed to “Endy” Chavez (assist to Dave Haller)

Who is he, and why should you be excited if the Indians sign him?

Placido Polanco was acquired by the Philadelphia Phillies in the Scott Rolen deal. They’ve treated him mainly as a utility infielder since, but I think he would make an excellent everyday second baseman. He’s a much better defender than Ronnie Belliard, according to Baseball Prospectus:

Runs Above Replacement
2003
Polanco – 22
Belliard – 6

2004
Polanco – 32
Belliard – 17

What about offense? Polanco is better with the bat as well:

EQA
2003
Polanco – .284
Belliard – .253

2004
Polanco – .268
Belliard – .265

From what I’ve seen, there hasn’t been that much interest in Polanco. St. Louis seems to be the front-runner, but ironically if the Indians non-tender Belliard, the Cardinals may sign him instead. He can accept Philadelphia’s arbitration offer, but they have told him that he won’t be starting. Minnesota may non-tender Luis Rivas if he doesn’t agree to a paycut, but otherwise there aren’t a lot of teams looking for second baseman, particularly after Oakland acquired Milwaukee’s Keith Ginter. Along with Belliard, Baltimore’s Jerry Hairston may also be non-tendered if he isn’t traded before December 20th, further increasing the possibilities. I think if Matt Clement signs elsewhere, adding Polanco would represent the best value for the money. If the Indians can get him for $4-4.5M/year, it would be an excellent signing.

Signed IF Jose Hernandez to a one-year contract worth $1.8M

Signed RHP Edwin Minaya to a minor-league contract

The brief Josh Phelps era is over, and I’m a bit surprised how soon it ended. If Phelps is in fact a “super-2,” then at least this makes a bit of sense. Paul Hoynes noted in his rumors column that the Indians were shopping Phelps, but no one was biting. Sounds like the arbitration dilemma to me; clubs know that if you don’t trade him, you’ll non-tender him, so why waste a prospect? I have no idea what Phelps would have been worth in arbitration given his recent exploits…maybe $2M or so? I would have kept him just to have another option off the bench. The signing of Hernandez was probably the last straw; Jose mashes left-handers almost to the same extent as Phelps does, but unlike Josh, he can actually play in the field. Some AL team will take a chance on Phelps, particularly if they need a right-handed bat. Maybe Tampa Bay? Baltimore, to pair with Rafael Palmeiro?

Shapiro said that Hernandez was not going to be the starting second baseman, which is a good thing. Either Belliard is coming back, or a free agent will be brought in. Maybe Placido Polanco? Pokey Reese? Shapiro is probably better off just accepting arbitration with Belly if he can’t work out a deal.

I’m a bit concerned as to the $1.8M though. Yes, Hernandez is a Boras client, and he was probably the best utility guy on the market, but I don’t know if I’d throw that much money at a bench player, particularly with the current payroll. It won’t really make much of a difference in getting Clement (the Indians have made their best offer, apparently), but when you only have $9-10M to spend, every little bit helps.

The Indians receieved Tom Mastny from the Blue Jays to complete the John McDonald deal. Mastny is a bit better prospect than I thought the Indians were getting. He posted some nice numbers in low-A this season. Of course, he’s 23 years old, and unless he moves fast (to AA next season), he’s not going to be taken seriously. Still, not a bad return for Johnny Mac.

Rule 5 (AAA): The Milwaukee Brewers selected RHP Landon Stockman (Cleveland)
Rule 5 (AAA): The Toronto Blue Jays selected RHP Lee Gronkiewicz (Cleveland)
Rule 5 (AAA): The Colorado Rockies selected LHP Keith Ramsey (Cleveland)
Rule 5 (AAA): The Houston Astros selected LHP Blake Allen (Cleveland)
Rule 5 (AAA): The Minnesota Twins selected RHP Armando Gabino (Cleveland)
Rule 5 (AAA): The Tampa Bay Devil Rays selected RHP Richard De los Santos (Cleveland)

Rule 5 (AAA): The Cleveland Indians selected RHP Neomar Flores (Toronto)

What you don’t see here is any Rule 5 draftees in the major-league portion; that’s certainly a relief. Jason Cooper, Pat Osborn, JD Martin, and others will stay in the organization. The 6 you see that were drafted are mainly minor-league filler, other than Ramsey and Gronkiewicz, who are mildy interesting prospects. Gronkiewicz has a chance of making the majors as a reliever; he has excellent strikeout ratios. But time is not on his side; he’ll be 27 next season, and will see AAA for the first time. Ramsey is another older pitching prospect; he pitched a perfect game for high-A Kinston, but his age (25 next May) and his perpipherals (9.1 H/9IP and 6.2 K/9IP) doesn’t really excite you that much. If he makes the majors, it will probably be in the bullpen.

The others are mainly filler. Blake Allen repeated Lake County this season as a 23-year-old, Stockman came to the Indians via the Independent Leagues, and the other two haven’t seen a full-season league yet.

Neomar Flores seems to have stalled in high-A, and looked worse this season. He doesn’t look too exciting.

More on Hernandez

According to his agent, Scott Boras, Jose Hernandez has in fact signed a one-year contract with the Indians worth $1.8M. That’s quite a chunk of change for a utility player, but he was one of the best in the business for the Dodgers in 2004. Hernandez, as recently as 2002, was a slugging shortstop for several teams, most notably the Milwaukee Brewers. He’s most famous for a record he almost broke; in 2002, he was closing in on Bobby Bonds’ all-time strikeout record for a season, when his manager sat him the last couple games so he didn’t break it. Nevermind that Hernandez was one of the better shortstops in the National League that season; only Edgar Renteria had a higher VORP. Nevermind that he hit .288/.356/.478 for the Brewers that season. Since then Adam Dunn broke Bonds’ record of strikeouts, and somehow managed to hit 46 home runs in the process. In my opinion strikeouts are just another out, the same as a harmless grounder to shortstop. And as long as Hernandez can hit for power and average off the bench, spelling Broussard against left-handers and filling in at various other positions, I really don’t care how much he strikes out. Production is all that matters.

The signing does call into question Belliard’s future, but unless the Indians somehow sign Clement, he’s probably coming back. I guess we’ll find out in about a week or so, when clubs must tender arbitration-eligible players contract. If both Belliard and Hernandez are on the team next season, that relegates Brandon Phillips to Bufalo unless a couple other roster moves are made. Right now, here’s how the offensive side of the roster looks:

Catchers (2): Martinez, Bard
Infielders (6): Boone, Peralta, Belliard, Broussard, Hernandez, Phelps
Outfielders (4): Crisp, Sizemore, Blake, Ludwick
DH (1): Hafner

But the offseason is still young, and if the Indians don’t sign a pitcher, they may go after another bat, further complicating things.

One interesting rumor in the past day or so is that the Indians may be close to signing Jose Hernandez to a contract. Hernandez is a pretty useful player; at this stage in his career, he’s become a super-sub. He can (and has) played every position in the infield besides catcher, and all three outfield positions. He’s a lefty-masher as well: last season he posted an OPS of 1.010 against left-handed pitching.

Hernandez also seems to be a sort of Rorshrach Test for baseball analysts. Some immediately point to his strikeout totals and dismiss him as a free-swinger. Others point to his power numbers and like his bat off the bench. I see him as an upgrade over Lou Merloni; he’s a better defender than Lou, especially at shortstop, he has more power, and he’s a guy you can bring off the bench late in a game against a tough left-hander. I think he’d be a fine pickup.

Matt Clement is probably out of play for the Indians; the Angels have probably offered $8-9M a year, and the Yankees seem to have entered into the picture. That doesn’t bode well.

Just by perusing the several Rule 5 previews, I get the impression that the Indians won’t lose as many players as they have in the past couple years. Jason Cooper is probably going to get picked, but after him I couldn’t say that anyone else is a lock to get selected. Maybe one of Martin and Denham, and probably one of Torres and Inglett. If I had to guess the number they’ll lose, I’d say three. Again, I still wonder why Corey Smith was protected over Cooper, who at least has had success in the minors.