Ryan

Recalled RHRP Jeremy Guthrie from Akron (MLB Debut)



What a difference a year makes. Last season most people (me included) were penciling in Guthrie in the rotation sometime during this season. We went ga-ga over his 2003 performance in Akron, and mainly wrote off his struggles in Buffalo as merely a learning curve. This year, without the appearance of injury, he regressed to the point that the Indians are trying him in the bullpen to at least glean something of value from him. Their argument for this move is that by eliminating two of his pitches, he’ll be more effective. Some have theorized that a pitcher can have too many pitches in his repertoire; sometimes a pitcher can out-think himself when trying to get a batter out. Whatever the case, Guthrie is going to be tried in the bullpen for at least September, and he’ll be re-evaluated next year. Compounding this situation is the fact that Jeremy is signed to a major-league contract, and he’s not going to get any cheaper once his initial four-year deal is up. This shouldn’t get as cost-prohibitive as the Baez deal, but it could get close if Guthrie doesn’t figure things out by the end of 2005. I sincerely hope that this move allows Guthrie to get back to the impeccable control pitcher he was last year, or at the very least makes him a useful commodity to the organization.



Optioned RHRP Fernando Cabrera to Buffalo (AAA)



A victim of circumstance more than anything. Cabrera was thrown to the wolves thanks to Chad Durbin’s “effort” against the White Sox. And while we’re on the subject of turning starters into relievers, I think Cabrera is the perfect example of using a player’s best traits to the team’s advantage. He has one really good pitch (his fastball) and one decent pitch (his split). When he was starting, he had to use his inferior secondary pitches (slider, change) just to keep hitters off balance during their 3rd or 4th at-bats. Now that he’s using only his best pitches, he’s missing a ton of bats (only allowing 57 hits in 70.2 IP). I really think he could someday become at the very least a quality setup man.



Designated RHSP Chad Durbin for Assignment



I didn’t like Durbin’s implosion last week, but I think this is an overreaction. The Indians could have optioned him back down to Buffalo to get in another start or two, and it’s not like the Indians are in a “win-now” mode. Of course, there’s the possibility that Kyle Denney is finally going to get his shot in the rotation (meaning they’d need a roster spot), but Jason Davis is probably a more realistic choice at this point. He’s been DFAd previously, so even if Durbin clears waivers, he doesn’t have to accept outright assignment.



Recalled RHP Kazuhito Tadano from Buffalo (AAA)



I don’t think the Indians really know what to do with Tadano; he’s probably capable of starting for a stretch of a month or so, but he might be more valuable as a longman or even a closer. Seeing what Shingo Takatsu and Akinora Otsuka have done in high-leverage relief roles recently, Tadano may be steered towards that role; however, he’s more of an unknown quantity than Takatsu or Akinora, who were closers in Japan. For now, he’ll inherit Jake Westbrook’s former stomping grounds as a swingman.



Optioned OF Grady Sizemore to Buffalo (AAA)



With Coco Crisp playing so well, Sizemore’s initial cup of coffee is over. He’ll go back to Buffalo, where the team is gearing up for a playoff run, and in need of a true center fielder. He’ll challenge Crisp next spring as the team’s starter in center field.



Recalled OF Ryan Ludwick from Buffalo (AAA)



Ryan has been mashing the ball for the Bisons, but because of his knee, hasn’t played much, if any, in the field. So this leads me to believe that Josh Phelps may be the one who platoons with Jody Gerut the balance of the year, with Ludwick being the DH against left-handers. If Phelps can at least be adequate in the outfield, it gives the Indians another useful option that they can use in the coming years. Which of course, could make for direct competition between Ludwick and Phelps next year as the lefty-masher off the bench.

Signed 2004 Draft Pick LHP Jeremy Sowers (1st Round) to a minor-league contract



Finally.



Probably the main reason for the delay was the number of college pitchers still unsigned from the top half of the first round. But with classes starting today at Vanderbilt, the Indians had to sign him or lose him. They did, for 2.475M, which is pretty much market-value for the slot. Sowers won’t pitch in the organization until next year, when he’ll debut at Kinston. Hopefully this Jeremy can live up to expectations.



Placed IF Chris Clapinski (AAA) on the Disabled List



The minor-league vet will probably miss the rest of the season. This caused a chain reaction throughout the organization, beginning with…



Promoted 3B Corey Smith to Buffalo (AAA) from Akron (AA)



Corey gets to Buffalo a year behind schedule. He has yet to put together a complete season in the minors, and he is in serious jeopardy of being jettisoned from the 40-man roster after the season. There isn’t much time left in the season, but the Bisons are going to the playoffs, so Corey is going to get an opportunity. He has raised his average (.249/.351/.422) considerably in the past month or so.



Promoted 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff to Akron (AA) from Lake County (A-)



This is big jump, but Kevin should be able to handle it. The 2003 draft pick blistered the South Atlantic League with a .321/.389/.518 (33 doubles, 15 homers).

Things Fall Apart



The glue that has held the team in contention, the offense, just collapsed this past week. The results? A seven-game losing streak, and the effective end to any thoughts of making the playoffs this season. Usually I stick to the facts when explaining something, but I’ll make an exception for this; the team is simply pressing. When an offense that was so good becomes so bad all at once, that’s the only explanation that seems plausible to me. Granted, there could be some other explanations, namely Travis Hafner’s sore elbow, but the offense hasn’t really been totally dependent on him.



The recent lack of offense has exposed the starters even more. CC Sabathia hasn’t been the same pitcher since he walked off the mound against Colorado, and Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook are in uncharted territory as far as innings pitched. When Scott Elarton has been your most consistent pitcher over the last three weeks, there’s some issues with your pitching staff.



In a way, I guess this is a good thing, in that it shows this team still has some big holes to fill. Adding Aaron Boone to the mix is a start, but the lineup still needs another big bat. If you assume that Josh Phelps, Ben Broussard, and even Casey Blake will be manning first base next year, the next biggest hole is right field, or whichever position Matt Lawton won’t be playing, and that’s assuming he’s still hitting. Grady Sizemore/Coco Crisp should be adequate enough in center, and Jody Gerut can play on days when a left-hander isn’t on the mound. But a right-handed outfielder would be a nice fit (maybe Ryan Ludwick?). Vizquel or Belliard is going to be gone (probably Vizquel), and one of Brandon Phillips or Jhonny Peralta will be starting in his place. I still haven’t figured out what happens to Casey Blake if Boone’s knee is healthy by Spring Training. He doesn’t necessarily have a platoon split, although if he can play second base adequately enough, he could spot Belliard there once or twice a week. Still, I don’t know how you can force him into a utility role when he’s been a pretty steady player for the past two years.



As bad as the parent club has been playing, most of the minor-league affiliates are doing very well. Buffalo continues to steamroll the International League; they now have a league-best 77-53, 9.5 games ahead of SWB. Even with the losses of Russell Branyan and Grady Sizemore, the team continues to mash. Ryan Ludwick, still recovering from knee surgery, is starting to hit at will; he’s now hitting .298/.377/.546 after a 12-27 week. Brandon Phillips and Jhonny Peralta are hitting .316/.375/.449 and .337/.392/.515 respectively.



Kinston is back in first place, lead by Brad Snyder (.373/.433/.644 since his promotion) and Pat Osborn (.350/.427/.548 in 263 ABs). Pat has even been playing shortstop since Ivan Ochoa’s injury, so he’s making a case to be added to the 40-man roster this winter. Oh yeah, Adam Miller hasn’t skipped a beat since his promotion either; he’s struck out 25 in 26.1 IP so far.



Baseball is (Somewhat) Cyclical



While watching the national broadcast of Saturday’s game, Bert Blyleven said something to the effect that the Indians are rebuilding much in the same way the Twins did in the late 1990s. In a way he’s correct; the Indians are letting a lot of young players play in the same way the Twins did with Hunter, Jones, Mientkiewicz, etc. But this current rebuilding project is taking place under a shorter time frame, and involved a mini-firesale in order to overhaul the farm system. The Twins mainly did their rebuilding the more traditional way; through the draft, and they are continuing to use their farm system to replace players lost through free agency or trades, or more like the Indians did it the last time they rebuilt. Here’s the Twins’ current 25-man roster, and how they acquired each player:

• Grant Balfour – signed as undrafted free agent
• Jesse Crain – drafted in 2002 – 2nd Round
• Kyle Lohse – 1999 trade – Chicago Cubs (Rick Aguilera)
• Terry Mulholland – free agent
• Joe Nathan – 2003 trade – San Francisco (AJ Pierzynski)
• Brad Radke – drafted in 1991 – 8th Round
• Juan Rincon – signed as undrafted free agent (1996)
• Joe Roa – free agent
• JC Romero – drafted in 1997
• Johan Santana – taken in Rule 5 draft (1999)
• Carlos Silva – 2003 trade – Philadelphia (Eric Milton)
• Henry Blanco – free agent
• Rob Bowen – drafted in 1999 – 2nd Round
• Matt LeCroy – drafted in 1997 – 1st Round
• Cristian Guzman – 1998 trade – Yankees (Chuck Knoblauch)
• Corey Koskie – drafted in 1994 – 26th Round
• Justin Morneau – drafted 1999 – 3rd Round
• Augie Ojeda – free agent
• Luis Rivas – signed as undrafted free agent (1995)
• Michael Cuddyer – drafted in 1998
• Lew Ford – 2000 trade – Boston (Hector Carrasco)
• Torii Hunter – 1993 draft – 1st Round
• Jacque Jones – 1996 draft – 2nd Round
• Shannon Stewart – 2003 traded – Toronto (Bobby Kielty)
• Jose Offerman – free agent

As you can see, the vast majority of Minnesota’s core players came from within their system. Even when they were winning, they didn’t like to trade any of their prospects (trading Kielty for Stewart is the closest thing recently resembling a prospect-for-veteren trade), even if they seemed to be blocked by others in the organization. In a way, they’re the Oakland A’s without a best-selling book telling the world how they did it. Granted, what the Athletics have done is a bit more impressive considering what division they play in, but Terry Ryan doesn’t get nearly enough credit with building a winning team under a really small budget. He does it a lot differently than Billy Beane does it, but it works, doesn’t it?

Traded LHRP Scott Stewart (AAA) to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a PTBNL or Cash



Just as Jeriome Robertson was banished to the hinterlands, so too is Stewart. I don’t really see the rush to deal Stewart unless a real prospect is coming back in return. Scott had by all accounts been pitching much better in Buffalo, and given the Tribe had been without a regular left-hander in the bullpen most of the season, why cut bait now? Rick White was “designatable,” so I don’t think a 40-man roster spot was that big an issue. Eric Wedge dropped a few hints here that the FO thought Stewart was beyond usefulness, implying that they liked Cliff Bartosh better, but still I don’t think you should give up on him this quickly.



Optioned LHRP Cliff Bartosh to Buffalo (AAA)



Ah, the life of a marginal bullpen pitcher. Since the Indians have had to use their bullpen liberally the past two days, they needed a fresh arm, and Cliff drew the short straw again. He’ll be back.



Recalled RHRP Fernando Cabrera to Cleveland (MLB Debut)



He’s one of the more underappreciated prospects in the system, and he can help the team right now. After an awful first six weeks in Buffalo, Fernando has really clicked in the bullpen. According to the Akron Beacon-Journal, Cabrera has an ERA of 1.91 since July 1, walking only 8 and whiffing 36 in 28.1 IP. If you’re keeping score at home, Cabrera joins Jason Davis as the only players from the 1999 draft to make the majors.



Placed OF Raul Gonzalez (AAA) on the Disabled List (broken leg)



He’s out for the season. The minor-league vet was having a pretty decent year for Buffalo, contributing to the first-place Bisons. To replace him, the Indians promoted…



Promoted OF Jason Cooper to Buffalo (AAA) from Akron (AA)



This is probably a permanent promotion for Jason; he’s had a mediocre season (.239/.321/.424) thus far, but he’s Rule 5 eligible this offseason, and the Indians will most likely add him to the roster. Still, with a lot of other good prospects eligible as well, the Indians may look at him in Buffalo to help them ultinately decide if he should be protected.

Catching Up



A couple of transactions that I haven’t gotten to:



Placed IF Lou Merloni on the 15-day Disabled List (elbow)



This is softened somewhat with the addition of Josh Phelps, though you have to wonder if the Indians decided to DL Lou now that they have another lefty-masher on the team. This also paves the way for….



Recalled LHRP Cliff Bartosh from Buffalo (AAA)



Is the third time the charm for Cliff? In his latest stint in AAA, he’s looked a lot better, striking out 35 in 28.2 IP. Now if only they’d actually use him in a game….



The Chicago White Sox Claimed OF Alex Escobar off Waivers



I had expected another AL Central team, the Kansas City Royals, to take a chance on Alex, but regardless, the Indians might be seeing a lot of Escobar in the coming years. If the Pale Hose don’t re-sign Magglio Ordonez, Escobar could come into Spring Training with a chance to be their starting right fielder.

A Cautionary Tale



As promised, here is my look at what happened to the Toronto Blue Jays this year, in light of the similarities between the Indians of 2004 and the Jays of 2003:



In 2003, Toronto was one of the best offensive clubs in baseball. Lead by Carlos Delgado and Vernon Wells, the Jays hit .279/.349/.455 for the year, and trailed only the Red Sox in runs scored. Here’s their main 9:

• C Greg Myers (329 AB) .307/.374/.502
• 1B Carlos Delgado (570 AB) .302/.426/.593
• 2B Orlando Hudson (474 AB) .268/.328/.395
• SS Chris Woodward (349 AB) .261/.316/.395
• 3B Eric Hinske (449 AB) .243/.329/.437
• LF Shannon Stewart (303 AB) .294/.347/.449
• CF Vernon Wells (678 AB) .317/.359/.550
• RF Reed Johnson (412 AB) .294/.353/.427
• DH Josh Phelps (396 AB) .268/.358/.470

and a couple of their main reserves:

• Frank Catalanatto (489 AB) .299/.351/.472
• Mike Bordick (343 AB) .274/.340/.382
• Tom Wilson (256 AB) .258/.331/.391
• Bobby Kielty (189 AB) .233/.342/.376

Delgado had an MVP-worthy season in 2003, and Vernon Wells was an All-Star. During the season, the Jays traded Shannon Stewart, a pending free agent, to Minnesota for Bobby Kielty (who was eventually dealt for Ted Lilly). Mike Bordick retired after the season, but the rest of offense was kept intact. Except for Myers and Delgado everyone in the starting lineup was under 30 years old. Given this, you’d expect the Jays to continue to hit in 2004, and given an upgrade in the starting rotation, you’d give them a shot to make the playoffs.

Then 2004 happened.

• C Greg Zaun (257 AB) .276/.378/.401
• 1B Carlos Delgado (309 AB) .236/.339/.476
• 2B Orlando Hudson (322 AB) .258/.340/.419
• SS Chris Gomez (294 AB) .286/.343/.347
• 3B Eric Hinske (426 AB) .251/.314/.373
• LF Reed Johnson (420 AB) .274/.327/.379
• CF Vernon Wells (377 AB) .281/.344/.456
• RF Alexis Rios (269 AB) .290/.334/.398
• DH Josh Phelps (295 AB) .237/.296/.417

The injury to Carlos Delgado hurt the offense the most, but that doesn’t completely explain the huge drop in power this year (from .455 in 2003 to .398 this year). Eric Hinske has really fallen off a cliff after his breakout season in 2002, and Vernon Wells is way off from last year’s numbers. Losing Greg Myers also theoretically hurts, though 2003 was probably a career year for the veteren catcher. Though not included in this exercise, losing 2003 Cy Young winner Roy Halliday was also a big blow to the team in general.

So what does this tell us? That offenses simply cannot be expected to reproduce at high levels indefinitely. Injuries happen. Regressions happen. Career years happen. One of the hardest part of a GM’s job is to try to predict trends in a player. Is Casey Blake becoming a pretty good player, or is it just a two-year fluke? Is Ronnie Belliard capable of producing similar numbers in the future? How many good years does Omar Vizquel have left in him? What about Ben Broussard? Jody Gerut? Coco Crisp? Do you cut bait on Matt Lawton after the season, or take your chances with him one more year?

In a middle-sized market, signing the wrong player to the wrong contract can be devastating to an organization. John Hart revolutionized the way teams treat young players financially; he locked up among other, Manny Ramirez, Albert Belle, Jim Thome, Charles Nagy, and Bartolo Colon to long-term contracts, buying out their arbitration years. Sometimes that worked fantastically, other times (Jaret Wright) the contracts became albatrosses. Mark Shapiro has said many times that he won’t aggressively seek to lock up players through their arbitration years. This Spring Training, he declined to offer Jody Gerut a multi-year deal; in retrospect, that decision looks pretty smart. While he may get burned in arbitration with some players, at the very least the Indians will be paying a player what he’s worth. Financial flexibility seems to be the organizational motto lately; by having more control of your players, you can be more creative to acquiring talent from year to year. Only three players have guarenteed contracts next year; CC Sabathia, Matt Lawton, and Aaron Boone. So this offseason will be the first big test of Shapiro’s financial strategy.

The Stage is Set



The Twins come into town tonight for a huge three game series. The Indians could be in a tie for first place by the end of the weekend.



Would I in my wildest dreams imagine I’d be saying this in the middle of August? Hell no. I thought I’d be continuing to hold out hope that the Indians would contend in 2005, that the upcoming offseason would be the first time since 2001 that the Indians as an organization would act as a contender. I thought the development of minor league prospects such as Michael Aubrey and Franklin Gutierrez would be the highlight of the season for the Indians. I thought….



I thought wrong. The team is contending in August. They are hitting the bejeezus out of the ball, and seemed to have found a combination in the bullpen that works. If you had told me at the beginning of the season that Jake Westbrook, Scott Elarton, and Chad Durbin were in the starting rotation, I would immediately start to envision a 100 loss team. But that’s how baseball works sometimes; you can envision the end, but cannot predict the means to get there. As I said on Monday, this team is outscoring everyone in baseball, including the Yankees, Rangers, Red Sox, and even the Rockies. That’s an astounding turnaround from last year’s offensive ineptitude.



You’ve Come a Long Way, Baby



What’s even more astounding is the fact that the team making a run for the playoffs in 2004 is a completely different team than the 2001 Central champs. In fact, of the players currently on the 40-man roster, only these players were in the organization in 2001:

• Josh Bard (2001 trade)
• Fernando Cabrera (1999 Draft)
• Jason Davis (1999 Draft)
• Jody Gerut (2001 trade)
• Mariano Gomez (Signed in 1999)
• Tim Laker (Signed in 2000)
• Victor Martinez (Signed in 1996)
• John McDonald (Drafted in 1996)
• Jhonny Peralta (Signed in 1999)
• David Riske (Drafted in 1996)
• CC Sabathia (Drafted in 1998)
• Jason Stanford (Signed in 1999)
• Corey Smith (Drafted in 2000)
• Brian Tallet (Drafted in 2000)
• Omar Vizquel (1993 trade)
• Jake Westbrook (2000 trade)
• Bob Wickman (2000 trade)

Of those 17, only 7 spent time in the majors in 2001, and only 4 (Wickman, Sabathia, Vizquel, Riske) were on the postseason roster. That’s an extremely quick rebuild.

A Cautionary Tale and a Tease

For a dose of reality, you need look only as far as last night’s opponents, the Toronto Blue Jays. In 2003, they were the team on the rise, a team with a great offense but suspect pitching. Now, after injuries and regressions, the Jays are one of the worst teams in the American League. What happened to them, and how can the Indians avoid a similar fate? I’ll tackle that tomorrow.

Promoted OF JJ Sherrill to Akron (AA) from Kinston (A+)



Sherrill at this point is an organizational guy, and was moved up to Akron for two reasons; to play center field while Franklin Gutierrez is on the shelf, and to make room in Kinston for Brad Snyder to play every day.



4 Games Out; 3.5 Games Out



The next two weeks should tell us once and for all whether the Indians are contenders or pretenders. After two more games with the Blue Jays, the Tribe plays the Minnesota Twins the next 6 out of 9 games. If my math is correct, they’ll only face Brad Radke once and miss Johan Santana altogether in those two series. That’s a huge break.



Although I’m less optimistic about the Wild Card, the Indians are closer to the Angels/Red Sox/Rangers than they are to the Twins. Sandwiched between the two Twins series is a trip to Arlington to face the Rangers, so they can make up ground against at least one of the wild card teams there.



A Critical Analysis: The Offense



Make no mistake about it; the major reason for the Indians being where they are this year is their offense. How did this offense go from the second worst in the AL last year to the best in the majors this year?



1. Everyone’s been healthy. Matt Lawton, Travis Hafner, and Omar Vizquel were all hurt at some point last year, and all haven’t gone on the DL at all.



2. Breakout seasons from Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez. Travis Hafner has been one of the best 5 hitters in the American League, and Victor Martinez has established himself as one of baseball’s best offensive catchers. The team didn’t have anyone to hit in the middle of the order when the season began, but now it has two legitimate run producers.



3. Progress from Casey Blake. Blake, the Indians’ most consistent hitter in 2003, has had a better season this year, hitting .280/.361/.482. Last year he hit .257/.312/411.



4. The unexpected contributions from Ronnie Belliard and Lou Merloni. Merloni, placed at first base versus left-handers because there were no other options, has hit southpaws to a tune of .356/.409/.577. Considering all the left-handers the AL Central throws at you, he’s been a godsend. Belliard has also mashed left-handers, and has been a huge upgrade over Brandon Phillips last year.



5. Rebounds from Matt Lawton and Omar Vizquel. Lawton, although he’s cooled off of late, is still hitting .290/.363/.452, which you’ll definitely take. Omar Vizquel is having one of the best offensive season of his career, hitting .298/.361/402.



6. The team gets on base. The Indians as a team get on base at a .357 clip, best in baseball.



To summarize, the Indians have gotten really lucky with some players, while their patience with others (Hafner, Martinez, Blake) has paid off. Hopefully Mark Shapiro realizes that simply keeping the same cast of characters next year is not going to guarentee a better result. The offense still needs another big bat in the lineup; a right-handed right fielder or first baseman with power would look real nice in between Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez next year.

Designated OF Alex Escobar (AAA) for Assignment



This is a calculated risk by the Indians. Escobar is out for the year with a broken foot, and the front office is gambling that no one will claim him because of it. 40-man roster spots are pretty valuable right now, so it’s hard to justify claiming a player who’s not going to play the rest of the season. That being said, if a team like Kansas City, who don’t have a lot of outfielders to begin with, wanted to take a chance on him, what do they have to lose? This isn’t Chris Magruder we’re talking about, either; Escobar, as bad as he’s played, still is a tremendous talent, and that upside is probably going to be too tempting for the other 29 clubs to pass on him. I think he’s gone.



Optioned RHP Kazuhito Tadano to Buffalo (AAA)



This has nothing to do with the way Tadano has pitched in Cleveland; unfortunately, he was the only pitcher in the bullpen with options. I’m assuming Rick White will be the longman for now, but only going with 6 pitchers in the bullpen for 3 weeks is another calculated risk that the Indians are taking.