Ryan

Placed OF Jody Gerut on the 60-day Disabled List (knee)



Gerut will have surgery on his knee to repair a torn ACL, and is probably out 7-9 months. This means he in all likelihood won’t be healthy until at least June of 2005. I’d almost have to say the Indians need to sign an outfielder in the offseason given that Ryan Ludwick is the only other major-league ready outfielder that’s capable of playing right field.



Purchased the Contract of OF Ernie Young; Recalled him from Buffalo (AAA)



AAA 441 AB, .299/.368/.551, 27 HR, 26 2B, 104 SO, 40 BB (Age 35)



This is somewhat of a reward for Young, who toiled in AAA all season. Ernie posted solid numbers for the Bisons, and will add some depth to the suddenly-depleted outfield for the rest of the season. I would imagine that he’ll get invited to someone’s camp next spring.

Placed RHRP Kazuhito Tadano on the 60-day Disabled List (back)



Purchased the Contract of RHRP Jake Robbins and Recalled him from Buffalo (MLB Debut)



After 11 years in professional baseball, Robbins will make his major-league debut sometime in September. Robbins has had two very good years in Akron and Buffalo, and while his strikeouts aren’t exactly what you want to see from a reliever, he’s survived by posting a very good hit ratio (6.99/9IP) in Buffalo. The Indians had a spare 40-man roster spot now that Tadano’s been DLed, so he’ll get a small audition now and probably will be invited to someone’s camp next spring.



Recalled SS/3B Jhonny Peralta and 2B/SS Brandon Phillips from Buffalo (AAA)



Unlike last year, the middle infielders have stayed healthy, so Peralta and Phillips played the entire AAA season with the Bisons. Peralta now has an International League MVP to show for his efforts (.326/.384/.493) this year, and Phillips has been much better at the plate (.303/.363/.430) this season. Now that the Indians are all but eliminated from the postseason, I’d think that one or the other will be starting the rest of the way.



Recalled OF Grady Sizemore from Buffalo (AAA)



With Jody Gerut probably out for the rest of the season, Sizemore should get a lot of playing time, with Coco Crsip moving to left, and Matt Lawton moving to right against right-handed pitching. Sizemore didn’t have a breakout 2004, but didn’t really regress either. He moved up to a new level at a fairly young age and didn’t seem to lose a step, even with an early season virus that caused him to lose 15 pounds. If all goes well, he should be starting on Opening Day.



Recalled RHSP Francisco Cruceta (MLB Debut) and RHRP Fernando Cabrera from Buffalo (AAA)



Cruceta will most likely take over for CC Sabathia in the rotation. The light finally went on in Cruceta’s head when he was promoted to Buffalo, and he pitched like a man possessed, increasing his strikeout ratio while lowering his hits ratio. If the Indians do sign that veteren starter, Crcueta will be in the running to be the 5th starter, although the Indians might be a bit skeptical and send him back to Buffalo to see what he’ll do in a return to AAA.



Cabrera will be another arm in the bullpen. He’s pitched extremely well this year and looks to have made the adjustment to being a reliever, striking out 92 in only 75 innings. I don’t think he has much else to prove in Buffalo, and should be an early favorite to make the 2005 bullpen.

Triple Whammy



Last night’s loss was pretty bad all by itself; but the news got worse.



First of all, CC Sabathia is probably done for the season with a hamstring injury. Granted, it’s a non-arm injury, and CC should be completely healthy by March 2005, but this will mean a weak starting staff gets even weaker.



And worst of all, Jody Gerut injured his knee during the game. Watching it on TV, it looks real bad; the kind of injury that one offseason isn’t going to heal. I hope he didn’t tear his ACL or MCL, but that’s what it looks like to me. Grady Sizemore is going to rejoin the team since Buffalo has won the Governors’ Cup, so I guess Matt Lawton and Ryan Ludwick will be manning right field. But Gerut’s injury could mean that Mark Shapiro has to sign an outfielder to play right field; I’m not real comfortable with giving Ludwick the job next year.

How I Read a Pitcher’s Line



Just to prep for the offseason, here’s an FAQ as to my methodology of evaluating pitching. Note that I’m not saying my way is the absolute only way, but this is to let you know where I’m coming from.



Q: Why don’t you include wins and losses in the pitching line?



A: Because they don’t really tell me how good the pitcher is. Let me qualify this statement; a pitcher’s job every start should be to help the team win that game. So by definition, his goal is to win the game. However, when evaluating a pitcher, you aren’t judging him on that season; you are trying to predict how good he’s going to be in future seasons. Hopefully that makes sense, but I’ll throw out an example to make it a bit clearer.



Here’s two pitchers’ lines from this season:



215.2 IP, 2.75 ERA, 149 H, 257 SO, 41 BB

193.0 IP, 3.12 ERA, 157 H, 188 SO, 73 BB



The first pitcher is Randy Johnson, he of the 13-13 record. The other pitcher is Roger Clemens, who is 17-4. Johnson’s numbers are superior to Clemens’ stats in just about every category you can think of…except wins. Randy Johnson is on the worst team in baseball, while Clemens has an outstanding offense behind him.



To hammer my point home, just imagine that Johnson and Clemens switch teams next year, and those teams provide exactly the same run support as this year. Johnson would be the runaway Cy Young winner, and Clemens, well, he’d be a .500 pitcher. I don’t include wins and losses for this very reason; a pitcher generally cannot control the offense that hits behind him, but he can control his pitching ability.



Q: What makes some pitchers better than others?



A: Well, let me start by saying that a pitcher’s ultimate goal is this: to prevent runs from scoring. Following this thesis, a pitcher is generally good if he allows less runs than most other pitchers. (I know, this is simplistic, but just follow along). Furthermore, a pitcher generally prevents runs by not allowing batters to reach base, so good pitchers allow less hits and walks than most other pitchers. Strikeouts aren’t necessary to post a low ERA, but pitchers who rely more on their defense to make outs (ie, groundball pitchers) usually will have more deviation in runs allowed.



Another illustration:



Johan Santana 209.0 IP, 2.76 ERA, 144 H, 240 SO, 49 BB

Jake Westbrook 189.2 IP, 3.27 ERA, 178 H, 103 SO, 53 BB

Curt Schilling 204.0 IP, 3.35 ERA, 194 H, 177 SO, 28 BB

Tim Hudson 160.2 IP, 3.36 ERA, 164 H, 90 SO, 38 BB

Brad Radke 204.2 IP, 3.43 ERA, 215 H, 134 SO, 19 BB

Pedro Martinez 199.2 IP, 3.43 ERA, 166 H, 213 SO, 55 BB

Ryan Drese 189.2 IP, 3.75 ERA, 197 H, 88 SO, 53 BB



As you can see, there’s more than one way to be a good pitcher. Santana (who should win the AL Cy Young) and Martinez succeed by possessing dominant stuff, Westbrook and Drese succeed by throwing sinkers, and Radke and Schilling’s calling cards are impeccable control. But as you can see by the hits allowed column, Westbrook, Radke and Drese are dependent on their defense to catch all those “extra” outs, so having a great defense behind them is almost a necessity when they pitch. It should also be noted that Westbrook has given up 13 unearned runs, so his ERA has been deflated a bit.



Q: So, you look at minor-league numbers the same way, right?



A: Not exactly. Reading minor-league stats leaves out a lot of extenuating factors. For one, I like to qualify a player’s numbers by looking at his age and level. In the low minors, a pitcher might put up bad numbers, but he may be working out his mechanics or trying out a new pitch. Also, pitchers who dominate short-season A-ball may not have the stuff to get out AA or AAA hitters. Rating pitching prospects are by rule a crapshoot; trying to project them is even more of a gamble. But if a guy like Adam Miller dominates at two levels at the age of 19, you start to take notice. AA seems to weed out the true prospects from the pretenders, but a future #1 is just an arm injury away from fading away into oblivion. Probably the best way to really see what kind of stuff a minor-league pitcher has is to watch him in person, or at least read an account from a reliable source. Other than that, you just have to try to use the available stats, along with the pitcher’s age and make an educated guess.



Let’s take the Akron starters, for an example:

Without taking age into account, and looking strictly at the lines, I’d rank them as follows:



1. Andrew Brown

2. Jeremy Guthrie

3. Jake Dittler

4. Dan Denham

5. Francisco Cruceta

6. Fausto Carmona



Now, I’ll add their “baseball ages” to this table:

Age

This changes things. Carmona, Denham, and Dittler are 3 years younger than Brown, and 4 years younger than Guthrie. Also, 2004 marked the first year in AA for the three, while this is Guthrie’s second stint in Akron. I still like Brown because of his low hit totals, but I like Guthrie a lot less now. Also, Cruceta was promoted to Buffalo and put up these numbers:



83.0 IP, 3.25 ERA, 78 H, 62 SO, 36 BB



Yeah, I don’t understand it either. Carmona has also pitched well in a short stint with the Bisons.



So now, taking age into account, as well as other variables, these are my rankings:



1. Andrew Brown

2. Francisco Cruceta

3. Fausto Carmona

4. Jake Dittler

5. Jeremy Guthrie

6. Dan Denham



So that’s the method to my madness.

Purchased the Contract of RHSP Kyle Denney; Recalled him from Buffalo (MLB Debut)



Denney’s finally going to get his shot in the majors. Kazuhito Tadano has been shut down for the season with back problems, and Cliff Lee has approached uncharted territory in innings pitched, so Denney will be in the rotation for the remainder of the year. What is Denney capable of? I think he could be a 4th or 5th starter on a mediocre staff, or a 5th starter/swingman on a good staff. This season Denney has been inconsistent, starting the year on fire, and after a suffering a knee injury in May, he really struggled. His season totals (all in Buffalo):



134.2 IP, 4.41 ERA, 134 H, 113 SO, 39 BB



The hits allowed/inning isn’t indicative of future dominance (for reference, look at Adam Miller’s stats), but Denney has enough control (only 39 walks) and stuff (119 strikeouts) to get by. It should be interesting to see how he does the rest of this month, and if he does well enough, could parlay that performance into a spot on the staff next year. Again, I’ll explore this after the season is over in my 40-man roster review.



The Detroit Tigers Offered Rule 5 Pick Lino Urdaneta Back; The Indians Declined



Urdaneta was a real reach pick for the Tigers; he was signed by the Indians earlier in the fall as a minor-league free agent. After a dominating performance in winter ball, the Tigers grabbed him as their third Rule 5 pick. He didn’t pitch all year until recently because of an arm injury, and when he did pitch, he didn’t retire a batter against the Royals. The Tigers still control his rights, and have outrighted him off their 40-man roster. So here’s a handy chart as to what happend to the four Rule 5 Picks selected last December:

• Hector Luna (St. Louis) – Kept on 25-man roster all season
• Luis Gonzalez (Colorado) – Kept on 25-man roster all season
• Willy Taveras (Houston) – Rights traded for Jeriome Robertson
• Lino Urdaneta (Detroit) – Refused to take back; Outrighted by Detroit

A Prelude to the Offseason



Since it’s pretty much a given that the Indians are done playing meaningful games this year, it’s time to start thinking of their offseason moves. The 2004/2005 offseason probably is going to be the busiest since at least 2000, when the Indians lost Manny Ramirez and signed Ellis Burks and Juan Gonzalez, among other moves. Last season, the “major” move in retrospect ended up being the signing of Ronnie Belliard, along with the lowlights of the Scott Stewart (or shall I say the Ryan Church) trade and the Jose Jimenez signing.



I’ll try to play along with the front office in guessing which players they are targeting in trades or free agency, which players they are looking to move, and which players won’t be brought back. After the season, the organization sits down somewhere and makes some kind of “war plan” for that offseason. And that starts with internal player evaluations. Guys like Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez are going to be evaluated, but the real meat of the evaluations come down to fringe players like Ben Broussard or Coco Crisp or Casey Blake, who for one reason or the other may be expendable or tradable in order to bring in something the team needs. This is where the GM and his staff earns their money; they need to project these players using scouting and/or statistical methods (the Indians use both) and determine whether they will (a) be a good fit in the projected 2005 roster and (b) be worth their 2005 salary. In Blake’s case, for example, there’s a good possibility that he’ll be eligible for arbitration, and if he is, he’ll get a big raise from what he made this season. I’ll get to all these issues as I review each player on the 40-man roster right after the season ends.



After determining where all the internal players fit in the 2005 scheme, things shift to external players, ie free agents and trades. If the organization sees a “hole” in the projected roster, they’ll identify several players that would fit that hole, regardless of cost. For example, let’s say they are looking for a veteran starter, and they say that Pedro Martinez, Brad Radke, and Odalis Perez are all capable of filling this role. Of course, then you have to look at economic feasibility, or how much that player is going to cost. This probably takes Pedro off the table. Then you take the remaining players and rank them as far as ability is concerned using scouting/statistical methods. I’ll try to do this as well, and we’ll see how close I get to what the front office eventually does. The trade option is also a distinct possibility, which makes a lot of sense for the Indians, who have the minor-league talent to deal and the ability to take on a contract. Given Shapiro’s flexibility doctrine, a player who has one or two years left on his deal might be a better option than to sign a similar player to a longer contract on the free agent market.



Just to whet your appetite, here’s an interesting article from a couple days ago. In it are some pretty interesting revelations as to where Shapiro thinks the best value will be on the free agent market.

In looking to manage the roster, Shapiro sounded certain about where its No. 1 weakness is: pitching that is Major League ready. The need for pitching is in the starting rotation and in the bullpen, and Shapiro did more than hint that the Indians will be looking to fill those needs either in trades or in free-agent signings after the season. Shapiro said the free-agent pool would probably yield more help for the rotation than for the bullpen. So he might have to use a strong-arm guy like Jason Davis or top prospects like Jeremy Guthrie and Andrew Brown in relief instead of as starters.

Judging by this remark, it looks like the main object in the free agent period is to go after a starter. This season, there’s a lot of pretty decent starting pitching available, including Matt Morris, Carl Pavano, Kevin Millwood, Brad Radke, Matt Clement, and Kris Benson, among others. While I doubt very seriously the Indians are going to stand pat with their bullpen, the biggest improvement to the team should be made to the rotation first and foremost. This then should create a chain reaction with a guy like Jason Davis or Jeremy Guthrie, who are being tried in relief in September. If you can turn Davis into a quality setup pitcher or even a closer, you don’t have to go out and pay top dollar for two holes (a starter and a reliever).

This is all preliminary speculation, but given what the team did in the past two offseason, it’s pretty nice to (realistically) speculate as to which proven starting pitcher the Indians are going to target in November.

Rule 5 Update



With the rosters expanding to 40 on September 1st, Hector Luna and Luis Gonzalez are now officially property of the Cardinals and Rockies, respectively. Lino Urdaneta still hasn’t pitched for the Tigers this season, as he’s been hurt all season, and the rules stipulate that a player must be on the active 25-man roster for at least 90 games if the player was on the disabled list the previous year. But, as we found out last year with Derek Thompson, a club can simply nontender the player and re-sign him to a minor-league contract if they wish. Oh, the madness of major-league transactions…



Peralta Wins International League MVP



If Jhonny Peralta hadn’t been rushed to the majors last year after injuries to Omar Vizquel and John McDonald, he’d make a lot of top prospect lists. He’s 22 years old, and still much younger than the average AAA player. With Omar Vizquel probably on his way out, he has to go into Spring Training the early favorite to be the team’s starting shortstop. Will he stay there for the forseeable future? I doubt it; his range isn’t what you like to see in a shortstop, and he looks to have enough power to justify moving over to third base eventually. He’s going to have to win the job over Brandon Phillips, who’s a better fielder, but I’ll give the early nod to Peralta as Vizquel’s successor.



Running Out of Gas



Just like last year, the team is starting to limp going into the home stretch. Victor Martinez is probably wearing down due to all the games he’s caught during the year (having Josh Bard and possibly Ryan Garko around should help next year), and Cliff Lee really looks like he’s “hit the wall”. But Matt Lawton has really fallen off as well, he doesn’t have the excuse of not playing an entire season before; he’s hit a dismal .229/.329/.335 since the All-Star Break.



As bad as the team has been playing, they’ve already matched last year’s win total of 68. Getting to .500 by the end of the year would probably be a nice goal; after Oakland this weekend, they have 7 more games against teams over .500 (Minnesota), so it’s a realistic goal. It should only get better from here on out, and this winter will be much more interesting than last year, where the big moves were acquiring/signing Scott Stewart, Ronnie Belliard and Jose Jimenez.

Sold C Sandy Martinez (AAA) to the Boston Red Sox



Martinez had a pretty good last month in Buffalo, so the Red Sox took a flier on him as a Plan C catcher. Teams have to have a player in their organization by September 1 if they want to use him in the playoffs. Since they already have Jason Varitek and Doug Mirabelli on their team, they probably won’t need Sandy, but he’s there if one of the other two get hurt. Now if Tony LaRussa were the Red Sox manager, that would be another story altogether.



Recalled C Josh Bard, LHRP Cliff Bartosh, and RHSP Jason Davis from Buffalo (AAA)



These are players the Bisons shouldn’t miss during their postseason run. Bard is a better alternative than Tim Laker when Victor Martinez is out of the lineup, Bartosh is back as the token left-hander in the bullpen, and Davis will most likely replace Chad Durbin in the rotation. Once Buffalo completes their season, you’ll see (among others) Phillips, Peralta, and Cabrera up with the team. One of the possible reasons why the Indians opted to call up Jeremy Guthrie was that they didn’t want to hurt Buffalo’s chances in the postseason; keeping minor-league affiliates happy (bringing in minor-league vets like Ernie Young, Jason Tyner, etc) is an unrecognized part of a GM’s job, and Buffalo and Cleveland have had a pretty good relationship since the Bisons became the AAA affiliate of the Indians.

Reinstated IF Lou Merloni from the 15-day Disabled List

The Arizona Diamondbacks Claimed RHSP Chad Durbin Off Waivers



If you’re the D-Backs, this is a no-brainer. A healthy, young, semi-decent pitcher for free? Where do I sign up? Their season has been over with in Arizona for a long time now, so taking chances on waiver wire players should be part of operations. I guess if you’re an Indians fan, the fact that teams are snapping up your cast-offs is a positive sign. I still think Durbin has some kind of major-league future; whether that’s as a starter is still iffy, but he’ll continue to get opportunities for the next 2-3 years.

Reinstated IF Chris Clapinski from the Disabled List (AAA)



A continuation of the Bisons’ stretch drive moves. Clapinski is back after about 7-10 days on the DL, and he should be playing third base in the playoffs. This leads to…



Demoted 3B Corey Smith to Akron (AA) from Buffalo (AAA)

Demoted 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff to Lake County (A-) from (AA)

These two are back to their original teams after a one week promotion. If I had to place money on on Smith on or off the 40-man roster, I’d bet off.



Promoted C/1B Ryan Garko to Buffalo (AAA) from Akron (AA)



Has anyone improved his prospect status in the organization more than Garko? He was hitting as well or better in Akron than he had been in Kinston, and that’s pretty hard to do. He was drafted in his Age 22 season, so he had to move fast in order to be a legitimate prospect, and he has. If he can continue to catch, imagine the offensive possibilities in Cleveland. Right now, he’s in my “Big Four” of Indians prospects, along with Miller, Aubrey, and Gutierrez.



Reinstated OF Franklin Gutierrez from the Disabled List (AA)



Gutierrez had been playing with a sore elbow all year, and finally had to shut it down in July. Even with the injury, he had pounded out 30 extra-base hits in 252 at-bats. Even so, I have to assume he’s going to play in Akron again next year, and make the jump to Buffalo around June; there’s no real reason to rush him.



Promoted C Ryan Spilman to Akron (AA) from Burlington (R+)



He’ll be backing up David Wallace while the Aeros finish the season.



Promoted C Caleb Brock and LHSP Rafael Perez to Kinston (A+) from Lake County (A-)

Pormoted C Ryan Woodson and RHSP Gerson Mercedes to Lake County (A-) from Burlington (R+)



Pounding a Square Peg Into a Round Hole



Coco Crisp, when he was received in the Chuck Finley deal, looked like a future leadoff prospect. But in the past couple years, he has hit for some power, hasn’t walked, and hasn’t stole bases (16/26) very well at all. Most of his on-base percentage (.324) is attributed to his batting average (.282). Everyone else in last night’s lineup had a larger OBP than Crisp. So why is he batting leadoff? I guess perception sometimes becomes reality; if enough people think he’s a good leadoff hitter, then eventually it becomes a reality. Coco doesn’t strike out that much, but not striking out and getting on base are two different things. An out is an out, no matter if you ground out to second or you strike out on three pitches. Crisp’s season thus far looks closer to Randall Simon’s 2002 campaign than Kenny Lofton’s mid-1990s efforts:



2002 Simon 482 AB, .301/.320/.459, 17 2B, 19 HR

2004 Crisp 379 AB, .282/.324/.446, 19 2B, 13 HR



Of course the big difference is that Crisp is farther left on the defensive spectrum than Simon, but as far as I know, Randall Simon has never been a leadoff hitter. So why place Crisp there?

This Says It All….