More Changes
I’ve re-configured the comments; now they are the standard Blogger comments. All previous posts still have the pop-up comment box, but any future posts will use the new system.
Feel free to test them out.
I also have 6 gmail addresses; if you want one, just email me your name, and I’ll send an invite your way.
Changes
I’ve recently switched over to Mozilla Firefox, and viewing my blog with it saw that the “table” setup looked awful. So over the weekend I cobbled together a table-free blog through a lot of trial and error. So far it looks pretty good in IE and Netscape, although it’s optimized for Firefox.
The blog may change a bit over the next couple days (I’m trying to find the perfect font for my title), but the main part of the shift has been completed. During the changeover, I’ve added the Arizona Fall League and Florida Instructional League rosters. Most of the players you see on those two rosters are the teams’ best prospects, and sometime in early November I’ll try to start ranking the top 30 or so.
Enough about the blog itself; onto the Indians:
Corey Smith is finally moving to the outfield, according to player development director John Farell:
Two highly touted prospects, third baseman Corey Smith and second baseman Micah Schilling, haven’t panned out as previously expected.
Smith has been an inconsistent hitter and has struggled mightily in the field — so much so that Farrell has plans to move him to the outfield.
“The defensive aspect has not progressed where his overall talents show they can,” Farrell said. “Sometimes his thought process gets in the way of executing. We’re trying to take away the distraction of the defensive aspect, which may allow him to think more positively about his overall game.”
For Smith, this gives him one last fresh start with the organization. Since being drafted in 2000, Smith simply hasn’t performed to the level the organization thought he would. Compounding his struggles at the plate has been his horrendous defense at third base. Every scouting report I’ve seen raves at Smith’s physical abilities, and hopefully a move to the outfield will allow him to relax. Kevin Kouzmanoff and Pat Osborn (when healthy) are better third base prospects in the organization, not to mention Matt Whitney, who’s been out effectively two years after breaking his leg in March 2002. Smith is no longer on the prospect radar, although he’s still young enough to make himself into a major-league outfielder.
All My Infielders, Episode 2
As we left our story, I had this configuration for next season:
1B Casey Blake
2B Omar Vizquel
SS Jhonny Peralta/Brandon Phillips
3B Aaron Boone
UTIF Josh Phelps
UTIF Lou Merloni (or facsimile)
Now Eric Wedge makes an appearance on our program, saying this:
When Wedge talked about the infield for next year, he was reluctant to name a starter at any position except first base.
“I look at Benny as our first baseman,” he said.
If this is true, I need to throw out my previous model. By keeping Broussard around, Blake by default is your second baseman, which means Belliard is probably either nontendered or traded. Also this would mean Omar Vizquel will be playing for another team next year whether he wants to or not. I don’t believe Broussard is arbitration-eligible yet, so he’ll still be making next to nothing. What I am concerned about is the double-play combination. Blake has played a grand total of 0 innings as a major-league second baseman, and Jhonny Peralta looks more like a player transitioning between shortstop and third base. If Jake Westbrook is reading this, he’s probably already cringing.
The upside is obvious; by moving your third baseman left on the defensive spectrum, you are increasing his overall value to your team. And placing Jhonny Peralta at shortstop should be an offensive upgrade over Omar Vizquel, especially in the power department. But is that offensive upgrade worth what seems to me as a downgrade in defense? I’ve never seen Blake at second base, but he was a below-average third baseman to begin with; therefore my first reaction is that he’ll be a terrible defender at second base.
So here’s the 2005 infield, v. 1.1:
1B Ben Broussard ($400k)
2B Casey Blake ($3M)
SS Jhonny Peralta/Brandon Phillips ($300k)
3B Aaron Boone ($3M)
UTIF Josh Phelps ($350k)
UTIF Lou Merloni (or facsimile)
The upside? A pretty good offensive infield:
VORP (2003/2004)
1B Broussard (4.1/31.8)
2B Blake (9.5/36.6)
SS Peralta (-4.0/1.2)
3B Boone (31.5/NA)
Blake, had he played 2B all season, would have been the league’s best by a fairly large margin. Boone should, assuming his knee is healthy come close to matching Blake’s 2004 numbers. Broussard is a league-average first baseman. Peralta is an unknown quantity, but projects to hit with at least decent power.
The downside? Your defense presumedly gets worse, with Blake at 2B and Peralta being big question marks. Boone is a pretty good third baseman, and lets call Broussard average at first.
Stay tuned for the next exciting episode of “All My Infielders,” where plot twists and role reversals happen every show!
The Indians’ Wax Wings : A Review of the 2004 Season
The past six weeks haven’t been too pretty for an Indians fan. Tempted by the possibility of first-place in mid-August, but then greeted by the implosion of first a nine-game losing streak, and finally by a September reminiscent of 2003, I don’t think Tribe fans really know what to expect next year. Is this the team that was held back by a horrendous bullpen in the beginning of the year, the team that overcame its pitching woes by being baseball’s best offense, or the team that we’re seeing now in September?
Five years from now, I’ll probably look at the teams’ 2004 baseball-reference page and see a team that won anywhere from 76-80 games. What will it tell me? Not much without some context. Obviously the team had improved on their 2003 record, and by looking at their offensive numbers, I should deduce that the improvement in offense was the primary culprit in overall increase in wins. But the true test to whether the 2004 was an organizational success was the wins and losses in 2005, 2006, 2007, and beyond. If 2004 is the post-2001 era, then the organization did not do its job. The stated goal from the time the rebuilding began was to build a team that was equipped to contend and win a championship for multiple years beginning in 2005. The first and second steps of that process have more or less been accomplished:
Step 1: Reduce salaries by jettisoning players who won’t be part of the next contender.
The Indians went from a salary of a payroll of $78.9M on Opening Day of 2002 to a payroll of $34.3 on this season’s Opening Day.
Step 2: Acquire lots and lots of talent.
Again, most would agree that the organization in two years have vastly improved their talent pool from the majors to the minors. The first wave of talent was aqcuired through trading veterens in 2002, but more waves have come through recent drafts. The minor-league system is one of the deeper ones in baseball, and the major-league club has a lot interesting and talented players.
Now Mark Shapiro has to complete the third, and arguably, most difficult objective: take the acquired talent along with the money you saved in tearing down the team, and put a winner out on the field. The team will supposedly have around $15M to spend on free agents this offseason, which should place the Indians’ payroll around the middle of the pack. If they win in 2005, theoretically they should have more money to play with, but I seriously doubt the team will, in this current economic climate, ever have one of the highest payrolls in the league. That’s not entirely Larry Dolan’s fault; that’s just how baseball is now. The good news is that there isn’t a New York or Boston or even Anaheim in the AL Central; The Chicago White Sox had the division’s highest payroll in 2004 of $65.2M. So it isn’t like the team is going to have to overcome a large monetary disadvantage to win. The key is to make good decisions on the talent you have, and the rest largely takes care of itself. What are these ‘good decisions’?
This season, the Indians were, like Icarus, flying upwards with wings of wax; they disintegrated once they got too close to the top of the division. Next year, with expectations raised, a similar fall to earth won’t be excused. After the last out on October 3, the goal is to win the division, not finish .500, or improve from last year.
Over the next two weeks, I’ll be reviewing the team as a unit; what their strengths and their weaknesses were, and using those answers, determine what should be done to fix any weaknesses and maintain any strengths. This will then lead into the current player evaluations after the end of the season, and eventually into free agent evaluations. Please feel free to critque and respond in the comments below, or drop me a line via email.
All My Infielders
It looks like Omar Vizquel isn’t going to leave Cleveland without a fight. From yesterday’s ABJ:
Omar Vizquel can’t understand what the problem is. If the Indians do not
exercise the option clause in his contract at the end of the season (which they
won’t), he can become a free agent. But that doesn’t interest him. Only one
thing does: remaining with the Indians.
“My decision is not hard,” he said Sunday. “I want to stay. ” Asked if he had any interest in testing the market, Vizquel said, “Not really. There’s no other team I want to play for. I
had some interest in Seattle (his home), but I don’t want to go through another
rebuilding process.“Why go anywhere? I think we can win here.”
First things first. Dugout Dollars places Vizquel’s 2004 salary at $7.5M. The Indians and Vizquel have a mutual option for 2005 worth $5M; if the Indians decline it (which they will), they owe Vizquel $1M as a lovely parting gift. This will probably happen right after the World Series. However, if they want to bring him back, they have negotiate a new contract by the arbitration deadline in early December (I believe it’s December 7th), or they can’t bring him back at all.
Now that we have the preliminaries out of the way, let’s look at the shortstop market, not necessarily because the Indians are looking to sign one, but more to see what Vizquel is up against:
The 2004-2005 crop of shortstops is a pretty good one, with Renteria and Garciaparra being the cream of the crop. If Vizquel tested the free agent market, I don’t think he’d get anything more than a one-year deal. Also, he doesn’t seem to like to change residences (why couldn’t Manny Ramirez have had this trait?), so Vizquel just may take any offer from the Indians. This would make Shapiro’s decision on Vizquel even more difficult. Omar is still a competant shortstop, but his arm is very weak by league standards, and he doesn’t have the range he used to. One possible option is this: sign Vizquel to a 1 year, ~$2M contract contingent on a move to second base and sell high on Ronnie Belliard.
I’m still not convinced Belliard is going to be worth what he’s going to get in arbitration, and downright horrified at the prospect of the Indians locking him up long-term. He turns the double play well enough, but he hides his lack of range by playing the deepest second base I’ve ever seen. Given that there isn’t much out there on the second base market and with Belliard coming off a career year, there just might be a team that will be willing to overpay for Belliard’s services and send back a useful player or a prospect. A big plus to this move would be the net gain; the Indians might save $2-3M by dealing Belliard, which could be added to the Pitching Piggy Bank.
So where does this leave Casey Blake? I would think he’d move over to first base, assuming Aaron Boone’s knee is ready to go. Blake is also due a substantial raise due to arbitration, but unlike Belliard, Blake has been decent for two years. Given Blake’s phobia of left-handers, Josh Phelps should then be brought back to spell Blake against the left-hander’s cutters that drives him nuts. Ben Broussard would then also be trade bait (maybe Pittsburgh?).
So here’s my 2005 infield configuration, v. 1.0:
On first glance, this is a better defensive infield, and could be at least a comparable offensive infield if Peralta progresses as I think he will. Merloni would be a perfect fit to spell Vizquel against a left-hander, as would Phelps for Blake for reasons specified above. John McDonald hopefully will be exorcised this offseason, but I’m not holding my breath (I guess booting Tim Laker will be progress enough).
Is this the most likely scenario to happen? Probably not, but it’s an interesting one all the same; the Indians would save some money, improve their defensive configuration, and may not suffer that much offensively.
Placed OF Jody Gerut on the 60-day Disabled List (knee)
Gerut will have surgery on his knee to repair a torn ACL, and is probably out 7-9 months. This means he in all likelihood won’t be healthy until at least June of 2005. I’d almost have to say the Indians need to sign an outfielder in the offseason given that Ryan Ludwick is the only other major-league ready outfielder that’s capable of playing right field.
Purchased the Contract of OF Ernie Young; Recalled him from Buffalo (AAA)
AAA 441 AB, .299/.368/.551, 27 HR, 26 2B, 104 SO, 40 BB (Age 35)
This is somewhat of a reward for Young, who toiled in AAA all season. Ernie posted solid numbers for the Bisons, and will add some depth to the suddenly-depleted outfield for the rest of the season. I would imagine that he’ll get invited to someone’s camp next spring.
Placed RHRP Kazuhito Tadano on the 60-day Disabled List (back)
Purchased the Contract of RHRP Jake Robbins and Recalled him from Buffalo (MLB Debut)
After 11 years in professional baseball, Robbins will make his major-league debut sometime in September. Robbins has had two very good years in Akron and Buffalo, and while his strikeouts aren’t exactly what you want to see from a reliever, he’s survived by posting a very good hit ratio (6.99/9IP) in Buffalo. The Indians had a spare 40-man roster spot now that Tadano’s been DLed, so he’ll get a small audition now and probably will be invited to someone’s camp next spring.
Recalled SS/3B Jhonny Peralta and 2B/SS Brandon Phillips from Buffalo (AAA)
Unlike last year, the middle infielders have stayed healthy, so Peralta and Phillips played the entire AAA season with the Bisons. Peralta now has an International League MVP to show for his efforts (.326/.384/.493) this year, and Phillips has been much better at the plate (.303/.363/.430) this season. Now that the Indians are all but eliminated from the postseason, I’d think that one or the other will be starting the rest of the way.
Recalled OF Grady Sizemore from Buffalo (AAA)
With Jody Gerut probably out for the rest of the season, Sizemore should get a lot of playing time, with Coco Crsip moving to left, and Matt Lawton moving to right against right-handed pitching. Sizemore didn’t have a breakout 2004, but didn’t really regress either. He moved up to a new level at a fairly young age and didn’t seem to lose a step, even with an early season virus that caused him to lose 15 pounds. If all goes well, he should be starting on Opening Day.
Recalled RHSP Francisco Cruceta (MLB Debut) and RHRP Fernando Cabrera from Buffalo (AAA)
Cruceta will most likely take over for CC Sabathia in the rotation. The light finally went on in Cruceta’s head when he was promoted to Buffalo, and he pitched like a man possessed, increasing his strikeout ratio while lowering his hits ratio. If the Indians do sign that veteren starter, Crcueta will be in the running to be the 5th starter, although the Indians might be a bit skeptical and send him back to Buffalo to see what he’ll do in a return to AAA.
Cabrera will be another arm in the bullpen. He’s pitched extremely well this year and looks to have made the adjustment to being a reliever, striking out 92 in only 75 innings. I don’t think he has much else to prove in Buffalo, and should be an early favorite to make the 2005 bullpen.
Triple Whammy
Last night’s loss was pretty bad all by itself; but the news got worse.
First of all, CC Sabathia is probably done for the season with a hamstring injury. Granted, it’s a non-arm injury, and CC should be completely healthy by March 2005, but this will mean a weak starting staff gets even weaker.
And worst of all, Jody Gerut injured his knee during the game. Watching it on TV, it looks real bad; the kind of injury that one offseason isn’t going to heal. I hope he didn’t tear his ACL or MCL, but that’s what it looks like to me. Grady Sizemore is going to rejoin the team since Buffalo has won the Governors’ Cup, so I guess Matt Lawton and Ryan Ludwick will be manning right field. But Gerut’s injury could mean that Mark Shapiro has to sign an outfielder to play right field; I’m not real comfortable with giving Ludwick the job next year.
How I Read a Pitcher’s Line
Just to prep for the offseason, here’s an FAQ as to my methodology of evaluating pitching. Note that I’m not saying my way is the absolute only way, but this is to let you know where I’m coming from.
Q: Why don’t you include wins and losses in the pitching line?
A: Because they don’t really tell me how good the pitcher is. Let me qualify this statement; a pitcher’s job every start should be to help the team win that game. So by definition, his goal is to win the game. However, when evaluating a pitcher, you aren’t judging him on that season; you are trying to predict how good he’s going to be in future seasons. Hopefully that makes sense, but I’ll throw out an example to make it a bit clearer.
Here’s two pitchers’ lines from this season:
215.2 IP, 2.75 ERA, 149 H, 257 SO, 41 BB
193.0 IP, 3.12 ERA, 157 H, 188 SO, 73 BB
The first pitcher is Randy Johnson, he of the 13-13 record. The other pitcher is Roger Clemens, who is 17-4. Johnson’s numbers are superior to Clemens’ stats in just about every category you can think of…except wins. Randy Johnson is on the worst team in baseball, while Clemens has an outstanding offense behind him.
To hammer my point home, just imagine that Johnson and Clemens switch teams next year, and those teams provide exactly the same run support as this year. Johnson would be the runaway Cy Young winner, and Clemens, well, he’d be a .500 pitcher. I don’t include wins and losses for this very reason; a pitcher generally cannot control the offense that hits behind him, but he can control his pitching ability.
Q: What makes some pitchers better than others?
A: Well, let me start by saying that a pitcher’s ultimate goal is this: to prevent runs from scoring. Following this thesis, a pitcher is generally good if he allows less runs than most other pitchers. (I know, this is simplistic, but just follow along). Furthermore, a pitcher generally prevents runs by not allowing batters to reach base, so good pitchers allow less hits and walks than most other pitchers. Strikeouts aren’t necessary to post a low ERA, but pitchers who rely more on their defense to make outs (ie, groundball pitchers) usually will have more deviation in runs allowed.
Another illustration:
Johan Santana 209.0 IP, 2.76 ERA, 144 H, 240 SO, 49 BB
Jake Westbrook 189.2 IP, 3.27 ERA, 178 H, 103 SO, 53 BB
Curt Schilling 204.0 IP, 3.35 ERA, 194 H, 177 SO, 28 BB
Tim Hudson 160.2 IP, 3.36 ERA, 164 H, 90 SO, 38 BB
Brad Radke 204.2 IP, 3.43 ERA, 215 H, 134 SO, 19 BB
Pedro Martinez 199.2 IP, 3.43 ERA, 166 H, 213 SO, 55 BB
Ryan Drese 189.2 IP, 3.75 ERA, 197 H, 88 SO, 53 BB
As you can see, there’s more than one way to be a good pitcher. Santana (who should win the AL Cy Young) and Martinez succeed by possessing dominant stuff, Westbrook and Drese succeed by throwing sinkers, and Radke and Schilling’s calling cards are impeccable control. But as you can see by the hits allowed column, Westbrook, Radke and Drese are dependent on their defense to catch all those “extra” outs, so having a great defense behind them is almost a necessity when they pitch. It should also be noted that Westbrook has given up 13 unearned runs, so his ERA has been deflated a bit.
Q: So, you look at minor-league numbers the same way, right?
A: Not exactly. Reading minor-league stats leaves out a lot of extenuating factors. For one, I like to qualify a player’s numbers by looking at his age and level. In the low minors, a pitcher might put up bad numbers, but he may be working out his mechanics or trying out a new pitch. Also, pitchers who dominate short-season A-ball may not have the stuff to get out AA or AAA hitters. Rating pitching prospects are by rule a crapshoot; trying to project them is even more of a gamble. But if a guy like Adam Miller dominates at two levels at the age of 19, you start to take notice. AA seems to weed out the true prospects from the pretenders, but a future #1 is just an arm injury away from fading away into oblivion. Probably the best way to really see what kind of stuff a minor-league pitcher has is to watch him in person, or at least read an account from a reliable source. Other than that, you just have to try to use the available stats, along with the pitcher’s age and make an educated guess.
Let’s take the Akron starters, for an example:
| Player | IP | ERA | H | SO | BB |
| Andrew Brown | 77.1 | 4.66 | 66 | 67 | 36 |
| Fausto Carmona | 87.0 | 4.97 | 114 | 63 | 21 |
| Francisco Cruceta | 88.2 | 5.28 | 89 | 45 | 33 |
| Dan Denham | 76.0 | 5.33 | 88 | 50 | 31 |
| Jake Dittler | 107.2 | 5.02 | 119 | 85 | 40 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | 130.1 | 4.21 | 145 | 94 | 42 |
Without taking age into account, and looking strictly at the lines, I’d rank them as follows:
1. Andrew Brown
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Jake Dittler
4. Dan Denham
5. Francisco Cruceta
6. Fausto Carmona
Now, I’ll add their “baseball ages” to this table:
| Player | IP | ERA | H | SO | BB | |
| Andrew Brown | 25 | 77.1 | 4.66 | 66 | 67 | 36 |
| Fausto Carmona | 21 | 87.0 | 4.97 | 114 | 63 | 21 |
| Francisco Cruceta | 22 | 88.2 | 5.28 | 89 | 45 | 33 |
| Dan Denham | 21 | 76.0 | 5.33 | 88 | 50 | 31 |
| Jake Dittler | 21 | 107.2 | 5.02 | 119 | 85 | 40 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | 25 | 130.1 | 4.21 | 145 | 94 | 42 |
This changes things. Carmona, Denham, and Dittler are 3 years younger than Brown, and 4 years younger than Guthrie. Also, 2004 marked the first year in AA for the three, while this is Guthrie’s second stint in Akron. I still like Brown because of his low hit totals, but I like Guthrie a lot less now. Also, Cruceta was promoted to Buffalo and put up these numbers:
83.0 IP, 3.25 ERA, 78 H, 62 SO, 36 BB
Yeah, I don’t understand it either. Carmona has also pitched well in a short stint with the Bisons.
So now, taking age into account, as well as other variables, these are my rankings:
1. Andrew Brown
2. Francisco Cruceta
3. Fausto Carmona
4. Jake Dittler
5. Jeremy Guthrie
6. Dan Denham
So that’s the method to my madness.
Purchased the Contract of RHSP Kyle Denney; Recalled him from Buffalo (MLB Debut)
Denney’s finally going to get his shot in the majors. Kazuhito Tadano has been shut down for the season with back problems, and Cliff Lee has approached uncharted territory in innings pitched, so Denney will be in the rotation for the remainder of the year. What is Denney capable of? I think he could be a 4th or 5th starter on a mediocre staff, or a 5th starter/swingman on a good staff. This season Denney has been inconsistent, starting the year on fire, and after a suffering a knee injury in May, he really struggled. His season totals (all in Buffalo):
134.2 IP, 4.41 ERA, 134 H, 113 SO, 39 BB
The hits allowed/inning isn’t indicative of future dominance (for reference, look at Adam Miller’s stats), but Denney has enough control (only 39 walks) and stuff (119 strikeouts) to get by. It should be interesting to see how he does the rest of this month, and if he does well enough, could parlay that performance into a spot on the staff next year. Again, I’ll explore this after the season is over in my 40-man roster review.
The Detroit Tigers Offered Rule 5 Pick Lino Urdaneta Back; The Indians Declined
Urdaneta was a real reach pick for the Tigers; he was signed by the Indians earlier in the fall as a minor-league free agent. After a dominating performance in winter ball, the Tigers grabbed him as their third Rule 5 pick. He didn’t pitch all year until recently because of an arm injury, and when he did pitch, he didn’t retire a batter against the Royals. The Tigers still control his rights, and have outrighted him off their 40-man roster. So here’s a handy chart as to what happend to the four Rule 5 Picks selected last December:
