2000s

Declined the 2005 Option of RHRP Bob Wickman ($5M)

Like Vizquel, this doesn’t do anything to damage the chance of Wicky coming back. I think the biggest issue right now is whether Wickman wants to play another season or not. If not, the Indians will explore some of the other closer options, including guys like Troy Percival, Armando Benitez, and John Smoltz. If you’ve read my blog previously, I don’t place much stock in spending a ton of money on the bullpen. That being said, if Benitez can be had for $3M, I think the Indians would be crazy not to go for it. The good thing is that a lot of the larger market teams have closers under contract, so the Indians might find a couple bargains via free agency.

Outrighted IF Lou Merloni and C Tim Laker; Both elected free agency

Laker is gone, but Merloni will most likely be back. Wedge made silk out of a sow’s ear platooning Broussard and Merloni at first base most of the season, but now that Josh Phelps is around, Merloni should be able to go back to being a nice backup infielder. If Casey Blake does in fact play second base next season, Merloni might fit into an offense/defense platoon at second. Maybe he’ll be Jake Westbrook’s personal second baseman.

Purchased the Contract of LHRP Scott Sauerbeck

The Indians picked up Sauerbeck earlier this season; he had major shoulder surgery in the winter after no team showed any interest in him. According to this article, Sauerbeck pitched with a torn labrum most of the 2003 season, and injured his rotator cuff after being traded to Boston in July. Given the other left-handed options (or lack of thereof) the Indians have in the bullpen, Sauerbeck looks like a nice low-risk gamble. In 2002, the season before his shoulder injury, Sauerbeck struck out 70 batters in 62.2 innings pitched. He’s tougher against left-handed hitters (.201 BAA) than right-handers (.268 BAA), but I think using him strictly as a LOOGY wouldn’t be using him efficiently. Unfortunately, if he’s the only left-hander in the bullpen next season, Eric Wedge may try to shoehorn him into that role. I don’t really like when managers do that; Mike Sciossia found out about that the hard way when he brought in Jarrod Washburn (removing Francisco Rodriguez) to face David Ortiz in this year’s ALDS. If a guy has good stuff, it shouldn’t really matter who he’s facing, barring a really uneven platoon split.

Reinstated RHP Joe Dawley from the 60-day Disabled List; Outrighted him to Buffalo (AAA)

Dawley made two starts for the Indians when the back end of the rotation was a revolving door. He injured his elbow after two starts, although it doesn’t look like he’s going to have Tommy John surgery. He can become a minor-league free agent shortly, and should be in someone’s camp next spring.

Re-signed RHP Kenny Rayborn to a minor-league contract (2005)

Rayborn should spend most of 2005 in Buffalo; he’s put up decent numbers in AAA, but his strikeout (4.73) and hit (8.88) ratios don’t predict major-league success. He’ll be 30 in November.

Released RHP Evan Thomas from Buffalo (AAA)

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Declined the 2005 Option of SS Omar Vizquel ($5M)

This is nothing shocking, and it doesn’t really have any impact on whether Vizquel returns. Declining the option means that Vizquel will receive a $1M buyout. The Indians have until December 7th to make a final decision on keeping Omar, but they’ll more than likely have made up their minds long before that. Judging by the reactions from both camps following their post-season meeting, I think Vizquel’s agent was asking for too much money. Or maybe Shapiro would rather just cut ties now and go with Jhonny Peralta or Brandon Phillips from here on out. Either way, Vizquel is probably playing for somebody else next season. Despite all the hand-wringing that will result from Vizquel’s departure, I really don’t think the Indians will suffer that much.

Overall Review

A handy chart summarizing various team measures:

Category	Amount	AL Rank
Defensive Efficiency	.6855	13th
Bullpen ERA	4.88	12th
Starter ERA	4.77	5th
Runs Scored	858	5th
OPS	.795	3rd

I think it’s pretty obvious where the weak spots were. The bullpen was bad in the first half, and the starting pitching was bad in the second half.

In general, this was a .500 team; their Pythagorean record was only a little over one win off from their real record. The rebuilding is pretty much over; the 2004 payroll should be the lowest in the upcoming five-year span, mainly because the Indians have a lot of pre-Arbitration players on the roster. If the team continues to win, payroll should continue to increase, stabilizing somewhere around the $60M plateau in 2006 when most of this years’ core players will be starting to get big raises.

As far as the team on the field, there are several areas to address, including a better understanding of how to steal a base. I like Rick Manning as a broadcaster; however, I haven’t really liked what he’s done as a coach. Now that Lee Mazilli’s job appears safe in Baltimore, Eddie Murray should return as the Indians’ hitting instructor; that’s a good thing. I’m not as sure about Carl Willis, but his big test will come with how he handles a more experienced pitching staff.

This offseason is going to be a big test for Mark Shapiro as well, because he hasn’t been in the position to give out multi-year contracts since the winter of 2001-2002, and we know how that turned out. But overall I’ve been impressed at a lot of his minor moves, including the signing of Casey Blake, Belliard, Howry, Miller, the acquistions of Hafner, Phelps, and the three prospects from Montreal. He made two bad moves last winter in acquiring Jeriome Robertson and Scott Stewart for decent prospects. However, I’m more impressed that he stood by his plan when there were several opportunities to go for broke or cave to fan interests. The fact that he’s willing to part ways with Vizquel, even with mainstream fan opposition tells me a lot; making the right move is more important than making the popular move. He was also willing to sign Kaz Tadano after he was blackballed by every team in Japan and a lot of major league clubs. He was willing to make a stand on Milton Bradley, and not respond even when Milton (and his mother) ripped him in the press.

Overall, I really like the organization’s health, top to bottom. There aren’t really any bad contracts hanging over the club, the farm system is in good shape, and the coaching staff will be entering its third year in 2005. The only thing left to do is to start bringing in some final pieces via free agency, and hopefully that should be enough to make this club a 87-90 win team in 2005. Granted, a lot of things have to go right to do that, but as Branch Rickey once said, “luck is the residue of design.”

Up next I’ll concentrate on individual players; I’ll try to do 1-3 a day, starting this week.

Thoughts? Comments?

The Offense

Player	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	2B	HR	EQA	VORP
Matt Lawton	680	.277	.366	.421	25	20	.274	30.6
Casey Blake	667	.271	.354	.486	36	28	.278	38.9
Ronnie Belliard	663	.282	.348	.426	48	12	.265	39.5
Omar Vizquel	631	.291	.353	.388	28	7	.262	35.5
Victor Martinez	591	.283	.359	.492	38	23	.285	49.5
Travis Hafner	573	.311	.410	.583	41	28	.325	74.1
Jody Gerut	545	.252	.334	.405	31	11	.256	15.2
Coco Crisp	529	.297	.344	.446	24	15	.266	27.1
Ben Broussard	484	.275	.370	.488	28	17	.289	35.4
Lou Merloni	210	.289	.343	.426	12	4	.262	8.5
Alex Escobar	176	.211	.318	.309	8	1	.223	-3.0
Grady Sizemore	159	.246	.333	.406	6	4	NA	4.9
Tim Laker	126	.214	.262	.308	2	3	.194	-3.7
John McDonald	97	.204	.237	.344	5	2	.194	-2.6
Josh Phelps	80	.303	.338	.579	6	5	.295	7.5
Ryan Ludwick	54	.220	.278	.380	2	2	.221	-0.6

There really isn’t much of anything negative to say about the 2004 offense, other than they didn’t hit a lot of home runs.

In my mind, there were exactly two disappointments; Alex Escobar and Jody Gerut. Escobar is now property of the Chicago White Sox, and Gerut at least justified playing time before his knee injury by playing an excellent right field.

Breakout years: Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, and Coco Crisp

What Hafner did in 2004 astounds me even more now that I look more closely at the numbers he put up. Only Vladamir Guerrero, Melvin Mora, Ichiro, and Miguel Tejada had a higher VORP among AL position players. He might even finish in the top 10 in MVP voting, despite playing for a team that was out of the race by September 1st. I’ll get into Hafner and what kind of career I think he can have later on in my player reviews, but suffice to say he’s simply a fantastic hitter. Victor Martinez bucked the recent trend of catching prospects who didn’t live up of to the advanced billing. With Josh Bard being a much better backup catcher than Tim Laker, Eric Wedge should be able to keep Martinez fresher down the stretch next year. Coco Crisp really surprised me; although I’m a lot less sure of him than I am with Hafner and Martinez, he has a lot of interesting facets to his game, especially his surprising power, that has piqued my interest.

Comeback years: Matt Lawton, Ronnie Belliard, and Omar Vizquel

Lawton and Vizquel simply got healthy, and gave the Indians generally what was expected out of them. Vizquel has somewhat compensated for the decline of range in the field by becoming a better hitter at the plate. Lawton faded after the All-Star Break, but still ended the season with numbers in line with his career averages. Belliard was the big surprise; in a down year for second basemen, he was one of the best in the American League this season.

Marked Improvement: Casey Blake, Ben Broussard

Blake, who was the best hitter on the 2003 Indians (which wasn’t saying much), improved pretty much every aspect of his offensive game. Ben Broussard, who was in real danger of being kicked to the curb after a couple simply awful stretches early in the season, turned it on after the All-Star Break, one of the few players to do so. Now he’s played himself into a job next season.

The Overall Approach

The 2004 Indians scored runs through hitting a ton of doubles and drawing a ton of walks, an approach the sabermetrician in me really likes. While I don’t like to give pitching or hitting coaches too much credit (or blame) for player performance, the drastic team-wide improvement has to be in some part due to hitting instructor Eddie Murray. Another big reason has to be the fact a lot of the main cogs were second year players, and had finally started to feel comfortable in the majors. And of course a huge reason is that the lineup was generally kept intact for the whole year; before September, only Lou Merloni went on the Disabled List before September.

2005 Outlook

Omar Vizquel and Ronnie Belliard are probably on their way out, with Aaron Boone and Jhonny Peralta the likely candidates to take their places on the roster. Grady Sizemore will probably get a full-time job somewhere in the outfield, and Josh Phelps will probably replace Lou Merloni as the 1B/DH against left-handed pitchers, leaving Merloni (if he returns) to be more of a utility guy (If Blake ends up as the second baseman, Merloni might spot him against a tough left-hander). The offensive vacuums of John McDonald and Tim Laker will be replaced by Merloni (or Brandon Phillips) and Josh Bard. Obviously, there’s a much greater chance of offensive regression to the mean as far as runs scored next season, but the additions of Phelps (over a full season), Peralta, and Boone should improve the team’s power production. With pitching being more of a concern this offseason, the offense is going to be counted on to at least stay constant; hopefully, with an improved pitching staff, the offense won’t have to “win” as many games as this past season.

Outrighted OF Ernie Young, RHRP Jake Robbins, and SS Ivan Ochoa to Buffalo (AAA)

The biggest surprise of the three is Ochoa, who was just added to the 40-man Roster last November. Ivan spent much of the season on Kinston’s Disabled List with an injured shoulder. Among the four (I’m not including the Baez fiasco) that were added (the others being Grady Sizemore, Mariano Gomez, and Corey Smith), Ochoa was the real surprise; although he had quite a reputation for his defense, he hadn’t hit that much. During October, a lot of teams like to sneak players through waivers, and the Indians did so with these three. Ernie Young and Jake Robbins will become minor-league free agent in a couple weeks, and Ochoa will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft if he isn’t added back to the roster in November.

Cheerleader’s Boot Saves Kyle Denney

PD Story

Sometimes jokes write themselves. It looks like Denney is going to be all right (he’s been released from the hospital), so we can have some fun with this. Denney and all the other rookies were participating in annual hazing, and he got to wear a USC (no idea why they picked USC) cheerleader outfit during the trip to Minnesota. When the team was heading to the airport, a bullet entered the team bus, grazed Ryan Ludwick, and enetered Kyle Denney’s leg. The wound wasn’t deep, as team trainers removed the bullet before Denney reached the hospital. Denney was wearing a leather cheerleader’s boot as part of his outfit, and it apparently stopped the bullet somewhat. I’m wondering if Denney arrived at the ER still wearing the outfit, but regardless, I’m glad he’s OK. Even if he never sticks in the big leagues, Denney will have quite a story to tell to his grandkids.

A Quick Note

Tonight’s game marked the first time Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, and Grady Sizemore all appeared in the same game. Hopefully this will be the first of many times that combination helps bring the Indians a victory.

Season In Review: Part 1 of 5

I’ve divided this review into five parts: The bullpen, the starting pitching, the defense, the hitting and overall review. Assuming nothing really drastic happens, one week shouldn’t skew these numbers too much, and if something dramatic does happen, I can always go back and edit.

Let’s get the worst over with first.

The Bullpen

Name	Innings	App.	ERA	H/9	SO/9	BB/9	VORP
Rick White	78.1	59	5.29	10.1	5.1	3.3	3.0
David Riske	74.1	69	3.75	8.2	9.1	4.7	21.2
Rafael Betancourt	64.0	65	4.08	9.7	10.4	2.2	12.9
Matt Miller	52.0	54	3.29	7.3	8.5	3.8	14.5
Bob Howry	41.2	35	2.38	7.6	8.2	2.4	17.2
Jose Jimenez	36.1	31	8.42	11.1	5.2	3.5	-11.5
Bob Wickman	26.2	27	4.72	10.8	7.8	3.4	4.7
Cliff Bartosh	17.2	31	5.09	10.7	11.7	5.6	2.4
Jack Cressend	15.2	11	6.32	12.6	4.6	5.7	0.0
Jeriome Robertson	14.0	8	12.21	14.1	3.9	5.8	-12.2
Scott Stewart	13.2	23	7.24	15.1	11.9	4.0	-6.7
Jeremy Guthrie	11.2	6	4.63	6.9	5.4	4.6	2.2

Ah yes, the “bullpen from Hell” or shortened, “the hellpen.” The first two months of the season, the Indians had by far the worst bullpen in captivity. While the ineptness of the bullpen wasn’t even close to being the worst in baseball history, it felt like it. David Riske started the year as the closer, blew several saves, and thus began a series of bullpen shifts as manager Eric Wedge tried to find someone who get somebody, ANYBODY out. Jose Jimenez (free agency) and Scott Stewart (trade) were brought in last winter to shore up the bullpen, but turned out to be gascans. Baseball Prospectus ranked the bottom ten relievers by Adjusted Runs Prevented as of August 6th, and Jimenez and Jeriome Robertson were the bottom two.

Short FAQ: What is Adjusted Runs Prevented (ARP)?

A: The number of runs prevented over the average pitcher, adjusted for situation, league, and park. For a more in-depth explanation, go here.

The good news is that those that have remained on the team have pitched much better over the final half of the season. Replacing Jose Jimenez, Scott Stewart, and Jeriome Robertson have been Bob Wickman, Bob Howry, and Matt Miller. David Riske has been a lot better in the second half of the year, and Rafael Betancourt, the team’s most consistent reliver in April and May, hasn’t fallen off in August and September.

“That’s nice,” you might be saying, “but how should the team fix the bullpen next year?”

From what I’ve seen from front office/manager quotes in the past month or so, I don’t think you’ll see them spending a lot of money in the bullpen. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing, due to the maddening deviations in reliever effectiveness. For every Eric Gagne or Keith Foulke there’s ten other relievers who go from ‘great’ to ‘suck,’ depending on which year they’re playing. Scott Stewarrt was one of the better left-handed relievers in the National League when the Indians traded two prospects for him last winter; now he’s been banished to Los Angeles, and may resurface somewhere else two years from now as an elite reliever. Jose Jimenez, contrary to what you feel about him now, was a pretty effective closer in hyperoffensive Coors Field. Look at Ricardo Rincon’s career. Look at Paul Quantrill’s career. You really don’t know what you’re going to get from even the better relievers from year to year with a couple exceptions. So while of course you grab a couple guys from the “proven” pool every year, I don’t think it’s real smart to allocate big bucks to one of the least reliable positions on the roster.

For example, look at the composition of the bullpen in July and August, when it was more or less effective:

Closer – Bob Wickman – Acquired for Richie Sexson, among others in 2000. Blew out his arm a year after getting a three year extension in 2001 worth $18M. Finally came back after this year’s All-Star Break and has been very shaky, yet has only blown one save in 11 chances.

Setup – Bob Howry – picked up for a minor-league deal last winter while recovery from arm surgery. Came back after the All-Star Break and has been the best pitcher in the bullpen.

Setup – Rafael Betancourt – a former infielder converted to pitcher. The Indians picked him up two years ago as a minor-league free agent. Brought up in the second half of the 2003 season, and has parlayed a quirky short-arm delivery to become a very effective reliever, provided he isn’t overused.

Setup – Matt Miller – a 33-year-old who had pitched a grand total of 4.1 major-league innings before this season. The Indians signed the side-armer to a minor-league deal last winter. After pitching well in Buffalo, he was brought up and dominated right-handed hitters, holding them to a .214 average. He wasn’t drafted.

Setup – David Riske – drafted in the 56th round in 1996 (they only have 50 rounds now). He flew through the system, made his MLB debut in 1999, and bounced between the high minors and Cleveland for the next three years. Out of options in 2003, he was one of the better relief pitchers in the American League. This season he started as closer, blew several games, and looks to have stabilized as a 7th/8th inning guy. His ERAs by month are 12.27, 4.72, 1.00, 5.40, 1.76, and 2.08

Long Man – Rick White – When the bullpen was in the height of its throes, the Indians traded an organizational guy to the Dodgers for White’s services. He started out pitching in high-leverage situations, and was better than what the team had. Since then he’s been pushed to mop-up duty, and will probably be a NRI in someone else’s camp in 2005.

The moral of the story? With relievers, sometimes it all comes down to luck. Of course you have to find and recognize talent, but, especially in the bullpen, sometimes you just have to get lucky.

Of course, if money is no object, you can go ahead and spend $30-40M on “proven closers”; but the Indians can’t do that. Throwing 30% of your payroll at the least reliable of investments is a sure way of hamstringing your team down the road. The best way a small-market team can build a bullpen is to (a) develop your own talent, or, if that doesn’t work (b) pick up undervalued pitchers and see if they stick. To some extent, that’s what Mark Shapiro has figured out in the best three years as GM since trying the “proven closer” method. Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Davis, who have more or less struggled as starters, are going to be tried out in the bullpen, and Andrew Brown may eventually join them. Fernando Cabrera, after three years as a starter, is now a full-fledged relief prospect. Scott Sauerbeck was signed this summer to a 2005 contract in the hopes he becomes the next Bob Howry. Brian Tallet, after recovering from Tommy John Surgery, may find himself in the bullpen as a LOOGY. Cliff Bartosh and Kaz Tadano should figure into the mix as well.

I’m not insane enough to predict which among this collection of arms will be the core of the 2005 bullpen at this point in the offseason. A more realistic prediction is to identify a “pool” of possibles, and say that the majority of next year’s relief corps will come from it. And I’d still probably miss a guy or two; Betancourt and Miller were almost off the radar screen before their first appearances. Given that the New York Yankees had charcters like Tanyon Sturtze, Felix Heredia, Scott Proctor, Gabe White, and CJ Nitkowski logging multiple appearances this season, it’s safe to say that bullpen construction is definitely not a science; in fact, it almost resides in the pseudoscience realm along with remote viewing and witchcraft.