The Unfinished Compendium.

Game 1 boxscore

After yesterday’s rather disappointing game (and that’s putting it mildly), there’s been a lot of thoughts swirling around my brain. This is an attempt to sort them out.

In my mind the key to the Indians winning in this postseason is to rely heavily on the starting rotation. It’s apparent that Cody Allen isn’t the same pitcher he was in 2016 (or even 2017 for that matter), even after the numerous attempts to “fix” his mechanics during the season. Andrew Miller has alternated between injury and ineffectiveness the entire season, and while he may be at his best heading into the ALDS, that best is a far cry from vintage Miller, where you could put him in and immediately start planning for two innings from then. Brad Hand and Oliver Perez have been great additions, but aren’t going to be enough to cover the back end of a game unless the Indians get tremendous starting performances.

That’s why yesterday’s game was so disturbing. The path to victory was that Corey Kluber would outpitch Justin Verlander, and the bullpen would hang on at the end. Had the Astros won in a close game or pulled away late, I’d be down (as for any postseason loss) but would be understanding of it. After all, a weak bullpen has been a given all season. But Kluber’s performance, beyond the line score, is what is unsettling. Kluber struck out just two hitters yesterday. Just two! His velocity was down at least two miles per hour. He was missing out of and in the strike zone. That isn’t just the Astros lineup not missing mistakes, that’s Kluber not being the Kluber that we’ve seen all year, even at the end of the campaign. I don’t think Kluber is injured, otherwise Francona would at the very least have elevated Carlos Carrasco to the Game 1/5 slot. That slot is very important, as the pitcher who starts Game 1 is the only starting pitcher to make two starts in the ALDS. After today’s loss, the chances that the Indians can both win the season and do it in 4 games is rather small, so Kluber is going to have to pitch again for the Indians to have any chance of advancing, and based on what I saw yesterday, that’s not something to look forward to, whether it’s bad mechanics (more likely) or injury (less likely, and let’s hope that it isn’t the case).

This is where the strategy I laid out earlier collapses if the Tribe rotation isn’t at full strength. When Terry Francona reluctantly had to go to the bullpen in the fifth inning, the options just aren’t there to hold the opposition in check. Dan Otero and Adam Cimber made the postseason roster by default, not because they pitched their way into it. Neil Ramirez, the last reliever cut, has been awful over the past several months, so I’m not going to blame the roster choices for the performance, but the overall pool of players. That’s why I think Trevor Bauer is being used in a role that doesn’t suit his ability at all. Bauer was brought into a game in which the Indians were trailing in the sixth inning, replacing the guy who started the year as a co-closer. That should give an idea as to what Terry Francona thinks of the bullpen right now. And if you have to use Bauer in a short relief role, you can’t use him as a bridge type of pitcher  or even as a starter in the series. I imagined Bauer’s role as a finisher, coming into the game in the sixth or seventh inning and pitching the remainder of it, like the Astros used Charlie Morton in Game 7 of the World Series last year.

That’s why using Bauer in as low leverage a situation as you can get the playoffs was so puzzling. Sure, don’t plan on Trevor going deep into a game, but for goodness’ sakes, he’s one of your best 3 pitchers on the roster even after the injury!

The Indians have the talent to still pull off the series win, so don’t take the preceding as a acknowledgement of impending defeat. But as yesterday’s game showed, in order for them to win, the Indians absolutely need Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, and whoever ends up starting Games 4 and 5 to be at the top of their games, because if it becomes a bullpen game, the Indians are going to lose.

 

 

Even though my wildest dream did not come true, I’ll certainly take this:

The Cardinals were eliminated from contention with the Dodgers winning yesterday, meaning that all four of the teams pictured above are in the playoffs, but they want to avoid playing in Tuesday’s single-elimination Wild Card game, even if that means having to play a tiebreaker tomorrow. The calculus is simple: if the Cubs/Brewers and/or Rockies/Dodgers are tied in the standings after today’s games, they’ll play a tiebreaker on Monday*, and the loser(s) of those games would have to play in the Wild Card game on Tuesday, with the NL Central team hosting the NL West team.

Because the pairs are tied, the concurrent start times (at 3PM Eastern) won’t make the teams play any different than they would if the games were staggered, but as a fan, it makes this afternoon absolutely fantastic. All four games will be decided within a 3-4 hour window. Of the four pitching staffs, I think the Rockies may be the best positioned, as they were blown out yesterday, and therefore didn’t use the back end of their bullpen, while the other three teams did. That may come into play Monday or even Tuesday, as you’d have key relievers pitching for the fourth (or even fifth) day in a row. No matter what happens, at the very least we’ll have an afternoon of compelling baseball on this final day of the regular season, a nice appetizer for October baseball.

*Cubs would host the Brewers, while the Dodgers would host the Rockies.

 

St. Louis has ruined any possibility of a multi-day tiebreaker in the National League by losing four straight games, but with two days left in the regular season, there are still three different possibilities for tiebreakers, with two of them being mutually exclusive (NL West and Wild Card #2). So there could be two tiebreaker games played, with both of them on Monday.

NL Central

This one is rather simple. The Cubs lead the Brewers by a game, with both teams having clinched playoff spots. If they do end up tied, they’ll play a tiebreaker, with the loser hosting the Wild Card game. Either team would win the division outright without having to play a tiebreaker.

CHC (2 STL) 1-1 ->95-67
MIL (2 DET) 2-0 ->95-67

OR

CHC (2 STL) 0-2 ->94-67
MIL (2 DET) 1-1 ->94-67

NL West

The Rockies have clinched a playoff spot, meaning that the Dodgers would clinch one as well if they catch Colorado. It would be a similar scenario as in the NL Central, with the loser heading to either Milwaukee or Chicago for the Wild Card game. Either team could still win the division outright without playing a tiebreaker.

COL (2 WAS) 1-1->91-71
LAD (2 @SF) 2-0->91-71

OR

COL (2 WAS) 0-2->90-72
LAD (2 @SF) 1-1->90-72

Wild Card #2

If the Cardinals win out and the Dodgers lose out, they would play a tiebreaker for the second Wild Card spot.

LAD (2@SF) 0-2 ->89-73
STL (2@CHC) 2-0 ->89-73

There are six different combinations for Monday tiebreakers (including none at all):

• NL Central, NL West
• NL Central, Wild Card #2
• NL Central
• NL West
• NL Wild Card #2
• No tiebreakers

With only 2 days left in the regular season, that’s kind of crazy that there are still that many possibilities. Meanwhile, in the American League, there is absolutely nothing at stake (including seeding). So thank goodness for the NL!

 

The 5-team tie is still possible, but there is no more room for error, as now the record has to be 91-71, not 92-70, as the Cardinals cannot get to 92 wins now. The Cubs have done their part, losing two straight at home to the Pirates. St. Louis losing two games at home to the Brewers is what is gumming up the works, though.  The Cubs would have to lose all 5 of their remaining games, which normally would seem very unlikely, but 3 of those games are against the Cardinals. The biggest hurdle to tiebreaker chaos is actually the Brewers going 0-4 to end the season, as 3 of those games are at home against the lowly Detroit Tigers.

CHC (2 PIT, 3 STL) 0-5 ->91-71
MIL (1@STL, 3 DET)0-4 ->91-71
LAD (1@ARI, 3@SF) 3-1->91-71
COL (2 PHI, 3 WAS)4-1->91-71
STL (1 MIL, 3@CHC) 4-0->91-71

2 games to determine the NL Central division winner (CHC-MIL-STL) – Monday-Tuesday
1 game to determine the NL West division winner (LAD-COL) – Monday
2 games to determine the 2 teams in the Wild Card game – Wednesday-Thursday
1 NL Wild Card game – Friday

If St. Louis defeats the Brewers tonight and the Cubs win, the best outcome would be a four-way tie involving the Brewers, Dodgers, Rockies, and Cardinals. That would mean the Dodgers and Rockies would play on Monday to decide the NL West, with the losers participating in a three-team, two-day tiebreaker with the Brewers and Cardinals. The same records would apply as in the five-team scenario above, just with the Cubs removed. In this scenario, the Cubs would still win the NL Central even if they lost their final four games.

MIL (1@STL, 3 DET)0-4 ->91-71
LAD (1@ARI, 3@SF) 3-1->91-71
COL (2 PHI, 3 WAS)4-1->91-71
STL (1 MIL, 3@CHC) 4-0->91-71

1 game to determine the NL West division winner (LAD-COL) – Monday
2 games to determine the 2 teams in the Wild Card game (NL West loser-MIL-STL) – Tuesday-Wednesday
1 NL Wild Card game – Thursday

If the Cubs lose out but Milwaukee wins at least one game this weekend, this four-way tie could also happen (with Milwaukee winning the NL Central):

CHC (2 PIT, 3 STL)0-5 ->91-71
LAD (1@ARI, 3@SF) 3-1->91-71
COL (2 PHI, 3 WAS)4-1->91-71
STL (1 MIL, 3@CHC) 4-0->91-71

1 game to determine the NL West division winner (LAD-COL) – Monday
2 games to determine the 2 teams in the Wild Card game (NL West loser-CHC-STL) – Tuesday-Wednesday
1 NL Wild Card game – Thursday

If St. Louis loses to Milwaukee tonight, the best outcome for tiebreaker aficionados would be two separate ties; a tie for the NL Central (Cubs-Brewers) and a tie for the NL West (Dodgers-Rockies). This has many different ways to happen, given that both division leaders are hanging on by just one-half a game. The two losers would then face each other in the NL Wild Card game.

Here’s one of many scenarios in which you could have two separate ties:

CHC (2 PIT, 3 STL) 4-1 ->95-67
MIL (1@STL, 3 DET)4-0 ->95-67

LAD (1@ARI, 3@SF) 3-1->91-71
COL (2 PHI, 3 WAS)4-1->91-71

1 game to determine the NL West division winner (LAD-COL) – Monday
1 game to determine the NL Central division winner (CHC-MIL) – Monday
1 NL Wild Card game  – Tuesday

As someone who yearns one year to see a crazy series of tiebreakers at the end of the regular season, the National League presents a very intriguing scenario, in contrast to the American League (which might have all the seeding complete before the weekend).

There is a possibility of having 6 teams in the NL finish with the same record, and 5 of those teams having to play at least one tiebreaker (Atlanta has already clinched their division, and they wouldn’t have to participate, as determining seeding in the NLDS doesn’t require a tiebreaker game).

The most likely ending record for a 5-way tie is 92-70. Here’s what the other 5 contenders would have to do this week in order to set up that tie:

CHC (4 PIT, 3 STL) 1-6 (with at least 2 losses against STL)
MIL (3@STL, 3 DET)3-3 (with at least 2 losses against STL)
LAD (3@ARI, 3@SF) 5-1
STL (3 MIL, 3@CHC)5-1
COL (4 PHI, 3 WAS) 7-0

Colorado has the longest odds, as not only do they have the worst record of the contenders, but have to rely on outside help to get them into a tiebreaker, while St. Louis largely controls their own destiny, as they play both Milwaukee and the Cubs this week.

If all 5 teams tie, here would be the winner-take-all games next week in the National League:

2 games to determine the NL Central division winner (CHC-MIL-STL) – Monday-Tuesday
1 game to determine the NL West division winner (LAD-COL) – Monday
2 games to determine the 2 teams in the Wild Card game – Wednesday-Thursday
1 NL Wild Card game – Friday

There are many other less crazy scenarios even if this one doesn’t line up, but for now I’m rooting for the five-way tie. I’ll update these scenarios as the season draws to a close.

As life goes, so does baseball.

The Indians are going to appear in the postseason for the fourth time in six seasons, and while this playoff appearance has a lot to do with the division they play in*, the overall accomplishment is quite a satisfying one, given that mid-market teams like the Indians have the deck stacked against them before they take the field on Opening Day even with recent compensations.

When last the Indians did such a thing (1995-2001), they had a new brand new stadium, their main competition for entertainment dollars had left town, and the revenue balance wasn’t nearly as off-kilter as it became in the 21st century. This stretch of good-to-great baseball came with none of the external helps, unless you count Terry Francona as a deus ex manager. There wasn’t that long stretch of futility that elicits joy over even a slight success (witness the celebration over the Browns’ first victory in 19 months), there was competition for attention from the Cavaliers (because of LeBron James) and the Browns (for merely existing), and the team was outspent during its 2013 season by every other team in the division (including the Royals); they were wildly outspent by the Tigers until this year. The fanbase remained interested even during the fallow periods (see high TV ratings) but were not and are not opulent ticket buyers. So this dynastic period of Indians baseball was driven mainly by good decisions by the front office and coaching staff, something I’m itching to look at in great detail some cold winter day.

Entropy always wins out in baseball, though. The team has had a historically great pitching staff, driven both by talent but more importantly health. The front office has done a good job of avoiding a catastrophic contract millstone (when Jason Kipnis has the worst contract on the roster, that’s a good thing), but the passage of time in baseball terms means both more expensive players and a degradation of ability. Most of the players we know and love on this team will either not be in an Indians uniform in 2020 or be as effective. And that’s just assuming a normal turn of events; there always will be shocking turns.

As a baseball, I should expect at least competence from the team you follow, and occasionally excellence. That’s what the baseball people expect from themselves, after all. But there are also 29 other fanbases and front offices with the same expectations, and though some fall well short, there are enough who don’t to make continued success a rare feat (unless of course, they reside in a golden market).

So I’m enjoying everything remaining about the 2018 season. Enjoying the meaningless games left on the schedule. Enjoying the fact that there will be meaningful games to come. Enjoying the playoff games after the fact, as there’s no way that I can enjoy and be terrified of something at the same time.

As life goes, so does baseball.

*Even stating that the competition is obviously historically bad, the Indians were just a couple early-season injuries or bouts of ineffectiveness to the rotation from keeping pace with the Twins  (as the Tribe’s dominant starting staff covered for a hideous bullpen by throwing the most innings in baseball), and if the Twins were within 5-6 games after the All-Star Break, they don’t unload in July, and who knows what would have happened after that? I guess what I’m saying is that no MLB team is ever guaranteed to make the playoffs no matter how massive the perceived advantage. 

 

Live version here

As what’s left of Gordon has made a hash of this weekend’s outdoor plans, what better way to spend this unexpected fallow time than opining over the state of the Cleveland Indians as they prepare for the playoffs? It’s been a while since I wrote anything specific on the Indians in this place (or anything at all for that matter), and there’s lots of interesting sub-plots to cover.

In General

The drama had long been taken out of this season, what with the Twins regressing, and so all that is left to worry about is how the team will be structured for the ALDS. It’s been a weird season, in that the Indians have basically won the division in June despite having at one point only the sixth-best record in the American League. It’s also weird that the team played their best baseball after the division championship became a given. The closest season analogue is probably 1999, a team that ran away with the division (led by 10 games on June 15th). That club would score 1,099 runs, but lost in the ALDS to Boston largely because they didn’t have enough starting pitching for even a 5-game series (although if not for Mike Hargrove making a major strategic error, they might have won it anyway).

And so for the final three months of the season, both Terry Francona and the Tribe front office has had the luxury of not having to worry about the short-term, giving key players time off when they need it, sending players to the Disabled List for any type of physical ailment, and remaining patient with a slumping veteran. Most deadline trades are made with the idea of getting into the playoffs in the first place, but the Indians made their deals with the ALDS (and beyond) in mind. To that end, each of their July acquisitions (Brad Hand, Adam Cimber, Leonys Martin, and Oscar Mercado) are under team control through at least 2019. So while winning a championship in 2018 is still the top priority, a lot of the moves were made with this offseason in mind.

The Bullpen

The Indians are going to be the first team in baseball to clinch their division despite having the shakiest bullpen of any contender (though the Colorado Rockies might quibble with that). Like the Rockies, the Indians have succeeded in the standings because they’ve minimized the innings that their weak bullpen has had to pitch thanks to having one of the best starting staffs in baseball. The Tribe bullpen has thrown 387.2 innings, 35 fewer than their closest competitor (Houston, with 422.1 innings). Playoff games tend to see shorter hooks than a regular season game, and the Houston Astros (at this point it would be a shock if any other team is the ALDS opponent) are going to make it a point of emphasis to drive up the pitch count of the starting pitcher so that they can get to that shaky bullpen.

In the best of worlds, a bullpen with Brad Hand, Cody Allen, and Andrew Miller at the top of their games, along with support from Oliver Perez and Adam Cimber could get the job, assuming the starter can go six innings or more. But right now we’re not in that world, what with both Allen and Cimber struggling and Andrew Miller still trying to get healthy. There have been no signs that Dan Otero or Neil Ramirez will be of any help in October, and to that end Terry Francona has been trying out guys like Jon Edwards to see if he can find that final reliever for the playoff roster. But at this point I’d bank on the five mentioned in the first sentence of this paragraph plus at least one starting pitcher in the bullpen for the ALDS. In 2016 Francona leaned on his bullpen for lack of starting pitching; this playoff run, if there is to be a deep one, may depend on leaning on the rotation for most of the playoff innings.

Josh Donaldson and Jason Kipnis

On August 31, the Indians shocked practically everyone by acquiring Josh Donaldson from the Toronto Blue Jays. It’s not shocking that the Jays would try to trade the pending free agent (who supposedly wasn’t getting along with management), but that the Indians would be the team to trade for him. After all, the Indians had Jose Ramirez ensconced at third base, who was in the midst of having one of the best seasons by a third baseman in franchise history. The trade set in motion a series of positional changes, with Ramirez to move to second base, and Jason Kipnis to share time with Greg Allen in center field. In short, Josh Donaldson is going to make Kipnis a part-time player, which brings with clubhouse ramifications. After all, Kipnis has been a core player since the beginning of the playoff run in 2013, and is under contract ($13.67M) through next year. Assuming Donaldson leaves after the season, Jason Kipnis would be the front runner to return to second base, so Terry Francona is going to earn his salary in handling both Kipnis’ playing time as well as mental state through the rest of the season. Kipnis for his part has hit better in the second half, and especially of late (.947 OPS over the last two weeks), and if that continues through the end of the season, Francona would have more than enough justification to make him the starter in center field for the playoffs (with Allen, Guyer, or even Rajai Davis playing against a left-hander). All this juggling is necessary because of Leonys Martin’s life-threatening bacterial infection; thankfully Martin has recovered from it, but won’t be able to play again this season.

This all assumes that Josh Donaldson is both healthy and hitting by the time the playoffs roll around. After acquiring him, the Indians decided to place him back on the Disabled List (he was on Toronto’s DL when the trade happened) in order to get him more rehab at-bats. As a side benefit, the DL stint also helps him avoid this weekend’s series in Toronto.  And so Donaldson has played three games with the Akron RubberDucks in their Eastern League playoff series, and should be ready to go on Tuesday. He’ll then have about three weeks of major-league games to get in hitting shape for the playoffs. When healthy, Donaldson has been one of the best hitters in baseball, and would lengthen a lineup that for a good portion of this season has been very top-heavy.

The Melkman Cometh

Melky Cabrera, who I derided both here and in the Let’s Go Tribe comments, has been one of the most productive players on the club in the second half, hitting .312/.379/.500. He’s been especially good against left-handed pitching, which has led Terry Francona to try playing Brandon Guyer in center field when they face a southpaw. Cabrera is still an awful defender, but his re-emergence has plugged a massive hole in right field left by injuries to both Lonnie Chisenhall and Tyler Naquin. Martin was horrendous in his first stint with the Indians, but because he cleared waivers after the Indians designated him for assignment in June, was able to return for a second time, and this time has stuck. If you would have told me in May that Melky Cabrera would be the starting right fielder in the ALDS, I would have despaired for their lineup, but I am so glad to have been proven wrong.

The Yandy Conundrum

Yandy Diaz has started to hit at the major-league level, which has been welcome to see. He has a rather unconventional hitting profile, whacking singles and the occasional double, but rarely hitting the ball out of the park. He’s not a slap hitter at all (his average exit velocity of balls put in play is 92.5 mph, one of the best in baseball), but he doesn’t elevate the ball much at all. Since he got a week’s worth of regular playing time in August thanks to Edwin Encarnacion’s sore arm, he’s hit whenever he’s in the lineup. But he doesn’t really have a home position, which makes it difficult to find playing time for him on a club with an everyday DH. And that raises the question as to whether there will be a spot for him on the ALDS roster. For him to have a spot, he needs a role, and the only role that makes sense right now is of a pinch-hitter for Yonder Alonso, though he’ll also need to prove his defensive chops at first base. To this point he hasn’t started a game as a first baseman, but I’m hoping Terry Francona will get him some chances there as the season winds down. With Alonso struggling in the second half (.671 OPS), perhaps by the time the playoffs begin Diaz will even nab a start from Alonso (against Dallas Keuchel).

 

 

 

 

 

The other day there was a discussion at Let’s Go Tribe about this column by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. I responded there, and would like expand on my response here.

I’d recommend everyone who reads further to first read Nightengale’s column (not just the headline and introduction, which is designed to get the reader emotionally involved, whether for or against the premise. But I digress).

Nightengale seems to be mixing a bunch of issues into his conclusion that baseball is unwatchable when he just could have stuck with his main point: there is a lack of action in the game. He notes that MLB players are on track to accumulate more strikeouts than hits, which would mark the first time in history that that would be the case. His graph showing this trend starts in 2009, so I want to go back further to see if there was any trend beyond that. I went back to 1999, the year after the last batch of expansion. Here’s what the expanded graph looks like:

Hits have fallen over the years, but it’s been a rather gradual decline. Strikeouts, on the other hand, have seen a rapid ascent over the past 15 seasons. I want to go a bit further, because I don’t think Nightengale quite diagnosed the real issue. Let’s look at percentage of balls in play (anything but a strikeout, walk, home run, or hit by pitch) over the years:

The BIP percentage was fairly stable until this decade, then fell off considerably over the past 3 seasons. In the early to mid 00s, 70% of all plate appearances ended with a fielder making a play on a ball, but over the past couple of seasons, the percentage is now around 65%. For a game that’s been around for 150 years, that’s a sudden change.

You may be thinking: so what? The amount of runs per game have actually been trending up over the last couple of seasons:

Maximizing the amount of runs is the ultimate goal of an offense, so teams have been willing to trade contact for power (hence the recent emphasis on launch angles, etc). See the dip in runs per game in 2012-2013? That’s roughly the time when home runs % began to increase as well as strikeout %. That’s a rational adjustment by teams to a uptick in league pitching quality: you aren’t going to get as many chances to score runs, so go for the downs when you get a pitch to hit, even if you miss more.

But the on-field personnel aren’t the only ones who have input: there’s the fans as well, who ultimately keep the game profitable, and while a portion of fans only care about winning, I think there’s a considerable portion that also want to be entertained. And if there’s fewer things happening on the field, whether it be because of the amount of time between pitches or more strikeouts/walks, the game becomes less pleasurable to sit through. I can’t give you an exact percentage of fans who prioritize aesthetics over anything else, but I do think it’s enough to have an effect on the overall consumption of MLB, whether that be through the box office or the TV or the Internet. Other professional sports have over the years tried to reverse evolutionary changes to the game that fans haven’t liked; as one example, see the neutral zone trap in the mid-90s NHL. When the maximization of wins conflicts with the maximization of entertainment (and ultimately profitability), entertainment is going to win out eventually.

So what could MLB do if they do decide to incorporate rule changes to reverse this trend? If it were possible, the best way would be to both move the fences back across and increase the amount of real estate in the outfield across board; in other words, make every park play like Comerica Park in Detroit, with fewer home runs and more of every other kind of hit. But that would not be practicable given the way parks are constructed today, with valuable seats placed just beyond the fence. Lowering the mound or even moving it back is in my mind too broad a fix, as that would serve to increase offense across the board, perhaps accelerating the trend of fewer balls put in play. MLB could change the baseball itself so that it doesn’t travel as far off the bat; however given that their own recent study concluded that the baseball itself wasn’t a cause of the increase in home run rates, I wouldn’t be too confident that they even know what could “deaden” the ball.

My preferred solution to the BIP problem emanates from the same source that caused the BIP problem in the first place: adjustments by the teams and players themselves. As more and more pitchers are selected (in an evolutionary sense) to get high launch angle hitters out, hitters that are more line drive hitters will thrive, and clubs will try to develop more of those types of hitters. General Managers are constantly looking for undervalued talent, so someone is bound to go against the conventional wisdom and try to field a team of contact hitters at some point.

I do think MLB will move quickly on the pace of play issue (reducing the amount of time between pitches), implementing a pitch clock as soon as next year. After those changes are in place, if the BIP rate continues to fall, and if MLB determines that fans don’t like that trend, then rule changes will be implemented, and those would have a faster effect than evolutionary changes.

---

Nightengale’s other causes aren’t as compelling. Neither the have/have not issue is a new one, and the imbalance is not due to payroll/market size; the most recent CBA has put into effect a soft salary cap (the luxury tax threshold seems to be where teams stop spending). Yes, there aren’t that many mediocre teams (especially in the American League), but I don’t see that being any kind of structural problem. Many of the really bad teams are in large markets (Baltimore, White Sox, Mets), and either made really bad contract decisions or are consciously undergoing a rebuild.

The argument about advanced statistics being a cause of attendance being down made my head hurt. I seriously doubt any fan, no matter how casual, is going to stop going to games because there’s a couple new stats on the scoreboard or on the television screen. He uses Mike Trout, who is a player, to endorse this, which is absolutely backwards. A player’s goal is to drive in runs, because that’s how his team wins. I don’t have a problem with players thinking runs and RBIs are the ultimate goal, as long as they understand that in order to get better they should utilize other types of measures (such as the new types of stats made possible through the Statcast platform).

Even if you’re a casual fan, I think having other types of measures makes following a sport a lot more fun, as you can understand more deeply why and how things happened. Expected/projected wins/runs/etc shouldn’t be used as a guarantee for anything, but if anything they enhance your understand of the game, even if it’s enjoying a player or a team completely turn those projections upside down.

 

(you can see the live version of this here)

Note: since I put the above roster together, the Indians have added Melky Cabrera to the 25/40-man roster, optioned Evan Marshall, and designated Alexi Ogando for assignment. 

Right now the Indians are a roster of stars and scrubs, and the scrubs are winning.

The Tribe has two loci of instability on their roster, with one (the bullpen) being the most destabilizing by far. The outfield, which is other one, has its issues, but the Tribe offense has so far compensated for the holes in the lineup. And with several injured outfielders 1-2 weeks away from returning, those holes may be self-filling. But the bullpen looks to need radical external help; I don’t see any solutions coming from within.

The bullpen

The following is a list of transactions the Indians have made over the past 25 days just involving the bullpen. Keep in mind that the Indians didn’t make a bullpen-related move until April 26th, the day that Andrew Miller was placed on the Disabled List. That doesn’t mean the bullpen was pitching well, it just means that removing the stabilizing force of Miller led to a complete collapse of the bullpen into dysfunction, something that the Indians are still trying to get out of.

April 26

Placed LHP Andrew Miller on the 10-day Disabled List

Purchased the contract of LHP Jeff Believeau

May 1

Purchased the contract of RHP Ben Taylor

Designated RHP Matt Belisle for assignment

Placed RHP Nick Goody on the 10-day Disabled List

May 3

Purchased the contract of RHP Evan Marshall

Transferred RHP Danny Salazar to the 60-day Disabled List

May 4

Designated LHP Jeff Believeau for assignment

Purchased the contract of RHP Alexi Ogando

May 5

Acquired RHP Oliver Drake from the Milwaukee Brewers for cash

Optioned RHP Ben Taylor to Columbus (AAA)

May 8

Activated RHP Oliver Drake

Optioned RHP Alexi Ogando to Columbus (AAA)

May 11

Activated LHP Andrew Miller from the 10-day Disabled List

May 15

Purchased the contract of RHP Neil Ramirez

Transferred LHP Ryan Merritt to the 60-day Disabled List

May 20

Designated RHP Alexi Ogando for assignment

Optioned Evan Marshall to Columbus (AAA)

Since April 26th, the Indians have added 6 different relievers to the bullpen in an attempt to fill three open spots. Cody Allen, Zach McAllister, Dan Otero, and Tyler Olson have been mainstays on the roster (with the exception of Olson being away from the club for one day for the birth of his child). This amount of churn wouldn’t be an issue if those three spots were being used to funnel a procession of mop-up men onto the roster in order to save the rest of the staff. But that’s not what’s happening. Most of the pitchers added to the rosters were immediately thrust into high-leverage situations, meaning that the Indians weren’t looking for innings eaters but key relievers. For example, Neil Ramirez, who was added last Tuesday, has appeared in 3 games, all of which involved situations which called for a late-inning reliever.

Terry Francona has lost any kind of confidence in McAllister, Otero, or Olson to the point where he’s calling on pitchers he might have never seen pitch before to get outs with the game on the line. Andrew Miller, instead of pitching an inning or two in AAA on a rehab assignment, made his first pitches in a game in 15 days in a high-leverage situation. Now the Indians are going to move Josh Tomlin to the bullpen with Plutko moving into the rotation.

The scary thing about this whole situation is that it occurred in the midst of a fine run of starting pitching. The non-Tomlin starters have almost as a rule pitched at least into the sixth inning, and often into at least the seventh. Given that the Indians have long run out of accessible minor-league options, they are going to try to just minimize the bullpen exposure (with Plutko replacing Tomlin) until they can acquire some help. Most clubs don’t feel the need to trade off pieces until at least the end of June, and even then there aren’t going to be many clubs who feel they are completely out of the playoff race that early. So I think the Indians will continue to try anybody who has been remotely effective in AAA for the next month, and if McAllister/Olson/Otero/Goody still aren’t cutting it, they’ll be cut loose when the Indians made a trade for reliever.

I have never been an advocate of declaring a “go for broke” season, especially when it comes to ephemeral relievers, but the Indians would be justified in trading some prospects (but not emptying out the system) to re-assemble a competent bullpen. Because at the rate the Indians are blowing close and late games, they won’t even make the playoffs. And yes, that means finishing second in by far the worst division in baseball.

The outfield

I am less concerned about the outfield, even though things look bleak in the short term. The Indians added Melky Cabrera to the roster before Sunday night’s game, though that was something they needed to do before June 1st; the injury situation gave them an opportunity to give Melky an opportunity. If over the next couple weeks Melky can’t hit enough to compensate for his legion defensive inadequacies, then the Indians can cut bait without too much regret once a couple of the injured outfielders return from the DL.

The big loser in this whole situation is Tyler Naquin, who was playing well as Lonnie Chisenhall’s replacement. By the time he’s ready to return to action, Chisenhall will have been back, so even if Melky doesn’t work out, Naquin won’t have a spot to come back to. Perhaps the Indians think about playing him in center, but I don’t see that happening, especially when he didn’t play there even when Zimmer was down. And I don’t see the Indians utilizing him as a reserve outfielder, not when the normal three starters all bat left-handed.