Baseball (Archive)

Season In Review: Part 5 of 5

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Overall Review

A handy chart summarizing various team measures:

Category Amount AL Rank
Defensive Efficiency .6855 13th
Bullpen ERA 4.88 12th
Starter ERA 4.77 5th
Runs Scored 858 5th
OPS .795 3rd

I think it’s pretty obvious where the weak spots were. The bullpen was bad in the first half, and the starting pitching was bad in the second half.

In general, this was a .500 team; their Pythagorean record was only a little over one win off from their real record. The rebuilding is pretty much over; the 2004 payroll should be the lowest in the upcoming five-year span, mainly because the Indians have a lot of pre-Arbitration players on the roster. If the team continues to win, payroll should continue to increase, stabilizing somewhere around the $60M plateau in 2006 when most of this years’ core players will be starting to get big raises.

As far as the team on the field, there are several areas to address, including a better understanding of how to steal a base. I like Rick Manning as a broadcaster; however, I haven’t really liked what he’s done as a coach. Now that Lee Mazilli’s job appears safe in Baltimore, Eddie Murray should return as the Indians’ hitting instructor; that’s a good thing. I’m not as sure about Carl Willis, but his big test will come with how he handles a more experienced pitching staff.

This offseason is going to be a big test for Mark Shapiro as well, because he hasn’t been in the position to give out multi-year contracts since the winter of 2001-2002, and we know how that turned out. But overall I’ve been impressed at a lot of his minor moves, including the signing of Casey Blake, Belliard, Howry, Miller, the acquistions of Hafner, Phelps, and the three prospects from Montreal. He made two bad moves last winter in acquiring Jeriome Robertson and Scott Stewart for decent prospects. However, I’m more impressed that he stood by his plan when there were several opportunities to go for broke or cave to fan interests. The fact that he’s willing to part ways with Vizquel, even with mainstream fan opposition tells me a lot; making the right move is more important than making the popular move. He was also willing to sign Kaz Tadano after he was blackballed by every team in Japan and a lot of major league clubs. He was willing to make a stand on Milton Bradley, and not respond even when Milton (and his mother) ripped him in the press.

Overall, I really like the organization’s health, top to bottom. There aren’t really any bad contracts hanging over the club, the farm system is in good shape, and the coaching staff will be entering its third year in 2005. The only thing left to do is to start bringing in some final pieces via free agency, and hopefully that should be enough to make this club a 87-90 win team in 2005. Granted, a lot of things have to go right to do that, but as Branch Rickey once said, “luck is the residue of design.”

Up next I’ll concentrate on individual players; I’ll try to do 1-3 a day, starting this week.

Thoughts? Comments?

Season In Review: Part 4 of 5

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The Offense

Player PA BA OBP SLG 2B HR EQA VORP
Matt Lawton 680 .277 .366 .421 25 20 .274 30.6
Casey Blake 667 .271 .354 .486 36 28 .278 38.9
Ronnie Belliard 663 .282 .348 .426 48 12 .265 39.5
Omar Vizquel 631 .291 .353 .388 28 7 .262 35.5
Victor Martinez 591 .283 .359 .492 38 23 .285 49.5
Travis Hafner 573 .311 .410 .583 41 28 .325 74.1
Jody Gerut 545 .252 .334 .405 31 11 .256 15.2
Coco Crisp 529 .297 .344 .446 24 15 .266 27.1
Ben Broussard 484 .275 .370 .488 28 17 .289 35.4
Lou Merloni 210 .289 .343 .426 12 4 .262 8.5
Alex Escobar 176 .211 .318 .309 8 1 .223 -3.0
Grady Sizemore 159 .246 .333 .406 6 4 NA 4.9
Tim Laker 126 .214 .262 .308 2 3 .194 -3.7
John McDonald 97 .204 .237 .344 5 2 .194 -2.6
Josh Phelps 80 .303 .338 .579 6 5 .295 7.5
Ryan Ludwick 54 .220 .278 .380 2 2 .221 -0.6

There really isn’t much of anything negative to say about the 2004 offense, other than they didn’t hit a lot of home runs.

In my mind, there were exactly two disappointments; Alex Escobar and Jody Gerut. Escobar is now property of the Chicago White Sox, and Gerut at least justified playing time before his knee injury by playing an excellent right field.

Breakout years: Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, and Coco Crisp

What Hafner did in 2004 astounds me even more now that I look more closely at the numbers he put up. Only Vladamir Guerrero, Melvin Mora, Ichiro, and Miguel Tejada had a higher VORP among AL position players. He might even finish in the top 10 in MVP voting, despite playing for a team that was out of the race by September 1st. I’ll get into Hafner and what kind of career I think he can have later on in my player reviews, but suffice to say he’s simply a fantastic hitter. Victor Martinez bucked the recent trend of catching prospects who didn’t live up of to the advanced billing. With Josh Bard being a much better backup catcher than Tim Laker, Eric Wedge should be able to keep Martinez fresher down the stretch next year. Coco Crisp really surprised me; although I’m a lot less sure of him than I am with Hafner and Martinez, he has a lot of interesting facets to his game, especially his surprising power, that has piqued my interest.

Comeback years: Matt Lawton, Ronnie Belliard, and Omar Vizquel

Lawton and Vizquel simply got healthy, and gave the Indians generally what was expected out of them. Vizquel has somewhat compensated for the decline of range in the field by becoming a better hitter at the plate. Lawton faded after the All-Star Break, but still ended the season with numbers in line with his career averages. Belliard was the big surprise; in a down year for second basemen, he was one of the best in the American League this season.

Marked Improvement: Casey Blake, Ben Broussard

Blake, who was the best hitter on the 2003 Indians (which wasn’t saying much), improved pretty much every aspect of his offensive game. Ben Broussard, who was in real danger of being kicked to the curb after a couple simply awful stretches early in the season, turned it on after the All-Star Break, one of the few players to do so. Now he’s played himself into a job next season.

The Overall Approach

The 2004 Indians scored runs through hitting a ton of doubles and drawing a ton of walks, an approach the sabermetrician in me really likes. While I don’t like to give pitching or hitting coaches too much credit (or blame) for player performance, the drastic team-wide improvement has to be in some part due to hitting instructor Eddie Murray. Another big reason has to be the fact a lot of the main cogs were second year players, and had finally started to feel comfortable in the majors. And of course a huge reason is that the lineup was generally kept intact for the whole year; before September, only Lou Merloni went on the Disabled List before September.

2005 Outlook

Omar Vizquel and Ronnie Belliard are probably on their way out, with Aaron Boone and Jhonny Peralta the likely candidates to take their places on the roster. Grady Sizemore will probably get a full-time job somewhere in the outfield, and Josh Phelps will probably replace Lou Merloni as the 1B/DH against left-handed pitchers, leaving Merloni (if he returns) to be more of a utility guy (If Blake ends up as the second baseman, Merloni might spot him against a tough left-hander). The offensive vacuums of John McDonald and Tim Laker will be replaced by Merloni (or Brandon Phillips) and Josh Bard. Obviously, there’s a much greater chance of offensive regression to the mean as far as runs scored next season, but the additions of Phelps (over a full season), Peralta, and Boone should improve the team’s power production. With pitching being more of a concern this offseason, the offense is going to be counted on to at least stay constant; hopefully, with an improved pitching staff, the offense won’t have to “win” as many games as this past season.

Transactions

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Outrighted OF Ernie Young, RHRP Jake Robbins, and SS Ivan Ochoa to Buffalo (AAA)

The biggest surprise of the three is Ochoa, who was just added to the 40-man Roster last November. Ivan spent much of the season on Kinston’s Disabled List with an injured shoulder. Among the four (I’m not including the Baez fiasco) that were added (the others being Grady Sizemore, Mariano Gomez, and Corey Smith), Ochoa was the real surprise; although he had quite a reputation for his defense, he hadn’t hit that much. During October, a lot of teams like to sneak players through waivers, and the Indians did so with these three. Ernie Young and Jake Robbins will become minor-league free agent in a couple weeks, and Ochoa will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft if he isn’t added back to the roster in November.

Ingraham Chimes In On Vizquel

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A pretty even-handed article, in my opinion. Well, except for the fact that he’s voting for Vizquel for the Hall of Fame, but that’s for another time to discuss.

I’m definitely not sold on Casey Blake the second baseman or even Casey Blake the outfielder, but even so, Blake is a better investment for next season than Vizquel. He’ll be getting a big bump in salary, as he’s a “super-2” and eligible for arbitration, but all things being equal, should be more productive than Vizquel. The big thing to remember is that Ben Broussard finishing the year strong forced the hand of Shapiro, who probably figured Blake would move over to first base after the season when he signed Aaron Boone. Well, Broussard finished the season hitting .275/.370/.488, something you can’t ignore. So now Blake’s position is in limbo, depending on what happens with Ronnie Belliard.

Here’s a rough chart as to where the Indians are going to see appeciable increases in salary:

Casey Blake +3M
Aaron Boone +3M
Jake Westbrook +3M
FA Starter +7M
Bob Howry +1M
Scott Elarton +1M
David Riske +$500k
Lou Merloni +$500k
CC Sabathia +$2M
Closer +3M (assuming Wickman isn’t coming back)
Scott Sauerbeck +$1M?

That’s roughly an increase in salary of $25M. The Indians will lose $6.5M from Vizquel ($7.5M minus the $1M buyout), roughly $1M each from Ronnie Belliard, Jose Jiminez and Scott Stewart, and $5.0M from Bob Wickman. So it looks like a net payroll increase (from my standpoint) of around $11M, which would be in the middle of the range promised by ownership. Of course, this could change drastically over the offseason, but at least it gives us some kind of starting point to go by.

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All My Infielders, Episode 4: Vizquel’s Long Goodbye

Judging by his agent’s comments, it looks like Omar Vizquel isn’t going to be brought back. And of course, Bud Shaw came out with a column that mirrors how the mainstream baseball writers feel about Vizquel. Nevermind that Vizquel is going to be 38 next year, and nevermind that the Indians have two pretty good young shortstops that have nothing more to prove in AAA. Yes, Omar is popular in the community, but comments like this drive me insane:

The greatest compliment to Omar Vizquel at age 37 is that his popularity isn’t the biggest reason why the Indians need him next year. The talk of contention, if serious, is No. 1 on that list. Several other reasons tumble into place behind it before you consider any effect he might have at the box office.

Now, if you’ll allow me, I have to take this opportunity to address this. Bringing Omar Vizquel back is not going to sell tickets to the Jake next year; winning is. And the Indians have a lot bigger needs to address than bringing back Vizquel. I don’t mean to be uncaring about what Omar has done during his eleven years with the team, but it’s just time for him to go. Vizquel has been overpaid the last couple years because when the Indians signed Roberto Alomar to a fairly large free agent contract, he went to John Hart and complained. And he got what he wanted; a large extension that paid him roughly $7M this season. Now that his contract is finished and the team has younger, cheaper, and potentially better options at short, Vizquel should part ways amicably and move on; there are several teams out there that would be more than willing to sign him if he still wants to play. Unfortunately, I have this sinking feeling that the local media won’t let this go, and when Jhonny Peralta makes an error sometime next year, one of the local writers will pen an article complaining that Omar Vizquel wouldn’t have bobbled that ball or would have made that throw.

Baseball fans don’t like seeing change, especially when that change involves the last link to the two World Series teams of the 1990s. But in this case change has to happen in order for the team to get better, and if the team does so in the next 3-4 years with Peralta or Phillips at short, these laments will become quieter and quieter.

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All My Infielders, Episode 3

Today Omar Vizquel meets with Mark Shapiro to discuss his future with the team. Either way, we should know a lot more about the infield configuration soon.

If Omar signs a team-friendly contract to stay with the Tribe, it looks like he won’t be moving to second base, like I suggested earlier in this meaningless exercise. So I like Vizquel staying even less than before. Both Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Phillips can play shortstop, but only Phillips has played second base before. Also, there has been talk of Casey Blake moving over to second base, and Aaron Boone has also played second before. So keeping Vizquel around clogs up the infield even more, and more importantly, it leaves Peralta without a starting spot. I just don’t see Shapiro willing to keep Vizquel around with all these negatives to him staying even with his popularity with the fanbase. With several teams that would be interested in Vizquel if he goes to free agency, including the Rangers, White Sox, Cubs, and even Twins, I think it’s about a 75% chance you’ll be seeing Omar in another uniform next April.

As of this episode, my infield configuration hasn’t changed:

1B Ben Broussard (pretty much a lock now)
2B Casey Blake
SS Jhonny Peralta
3B Aaron Boone
IF Josh Phelps
IF Lou Merloni

I’ve been thinking the Indians might keep the loser of the shortstop battle (probably Phillips) on the roster as a backup, especially for late-inning defense, but it’s probably too premature to make that prediction.

Season In Review: Part 3 of 5

The Defense

An overlooked aspect of the team this season has been its defense. While the team ranked middle-of-the-pack in fielding percentage, it played much worse than that, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Defensive Efficiency metric. While quantifying defense is much less reliable than offensive measures, I like the team defensive efficiency measure, because it removes arbitrary scorekeeper decisions from the equation. Defensive Efficiency is merely the percentage of balls in play fielded by the defense; there’s no arbitrary decisions involved. It also recognizes defense as a team statistic; I’m leery of rating individual players on defense based on statistics, mainly because of the effect of externalities, such as the type of pitchers on the team (right or left-handed, groundball or flyball, etc), the park’s dimensions, the players playing around the fielder in question, etc. I really like quantitatively measure a player’s performance in general, but to me this is one exception.

So what does this team rating tell us? At least in my perspective, it tells me that the Indians run out a team full of substandard defenders every game. Omar Vizquel doesn’t have the range he used to have, and of the rest, I’d only place Jody Gerut, Coco Crisp, and possibly Grady Sizemore in the top half of defenders at their position. Adding Aaron Boone should help the infield defense, but moving Casey Blake over to second should probably make it worse. I guess it’s a trade-off; most of those substandard defensive players were also very good offensive players. I like the outfield alignment for next year sans Matt Lawton; Coco Crisp has really impressed me with his improvement in the outfield, and Grady Sizemore looks like, at first glance, a pretty decent center fielder. When Jody Gerut returns to the team, the outfield should really help out flyball pitchers like Cliff Lee and Scott Elarton. As far as the infield, Eric Wedge might have to go with a personal defensive alignment for Jake Westbrook when he pitches, for I don’t see the projected starters for 2005 improving that much over this past season.

With defensive players being the new “undervalued commodity” in baseball, it should be interesting to see how teams are constructed in the next couple of years, starting with next year’s team. Are the Indians content with fielding an offensive team that isn’t that good in the field, or will they sacrifice some offense in order to get to more balls in play?

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Season In Review: Part 2 of 5

The Starting Pitching

Name Innings Starts ERA H/9 SO/9 BB/9 VORP
Jake Westbrook 208.2 29 3.28 8.5 4.9 2.6 54.9
CC Sabathia 188.0 30 4.12 8.4 6.7 3.4 40.5
Cliff Lee 172.0 32 5.55 9.6 8.1 4.2 8.4
Scott Elarton 117.1 21 4.53 8.2 6.1 3.2 19.5
Jason Davis 113.1 19 5.56 11.7 5.7 4.0 -2.3
Chad Durbin 36.0 8 6.25 10.5 6.25 4.5 -4.3
Kazuhito Tadano 22.0 4 3.27 8.6 7.36 4.1 5.1
Jeff D’Amico 36.1 7 7.63 13.2 4.7 1.8 -7.7
Kyle Denney 16.0 4 9.56 18.0 7.3 4.5 -5.9
Jason Stanford 11.0 2 0.82 9.8 4.1 4.1 6.6
Joe Dawley 8.3 2 5.40 7.6 8.6 7.6 0.8
Francisco Cruceta 7.7 2 9.39 11.7 10.6 4.7 -3.7

The starting staff regressed from last year, but not as far as the bullpen did. Among AL teams, the Indians’ starters were more or less average to below average in several categories, including ERA (5th), WHIP (10th), OPS against (9th), and BAA (5th). The good news is that, unlike the bullpen, the Indians have a pretty good idea of their 2005 starting staff. CC Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee, and (possibly) Scott Elarton are good bets to be back in the rotation next year, along with a free agent starter. The big issue is with Sabathia and Lee, who both fell off after the All-Star Break. Lee to me is more readily explainable than Sabathia, who had pitched 3 full seasons before this year. Cliff’s strikeout rates held and even improved during the second half, so expecting a rebound from him next season isn’t out of the question. Sabathia, however, is a different story. After CC walked off the mound against the Rockies with another shoulder “twinge”, he seemed to have lost his control. Granted, an ERA in the low 4s isn’t that bad at all from a starter, but compared to what Sabathia accomplished before the All-Star Break, it’s got to be seen as a disappointment. Sabathia is probably the early key player for the 2005 team, in that the Indians probably won’t bring in any pitcher who has the potential to be better than him.

Jake Westbrook is obviously the most pleasant surprise of the entire team, not to mention the starting staff. I’ve liked his stuff for a while now, and when he finally realized that throwing strikes was the key to his success, he never looked back. I would not exact a better ERA from him unless the Indians drastically improve their infield defense; a groundball pitcher is usually more susceptible to wild variations in runs allowed even if they’re pitching the same. Once a ball gets put in play, there’s little a pitcher can do other than to hope the ball is hit at one of his fielders. Westbrook has been a little lucky with his BABIP, but not flukey lucky. His ERA is inflated about a quarter of a run due to the unearned runs he’s given up. As always, the key to his success is not walking hitters; now that he’s committed to “pitch to contact,” his pitch counts per start has gone down, and therefore he’s not working deep into many counts.

Jason Davis, who was pretty awful in the rotation this season, is probably going to be in the bullpen next year. As I said in my bullpen review, he may find a home there with his stuff. Jeremy Guthrie will most likely go back to Buffalo and be given one last chance to start. Kyle Denney, after being added to the 40-man roster this September, should join Guthrie in Buffalo’s rotation, as will Francisco Cruceta. The good thing is that there should be a little more starting depth next year than last year (although you never know with pitching).

On the whole, the starting staff was a disappointment; Jake Westbrook was the only consistent starter throughout the year. For the Indians to contend next year, they’re going to need at least 3 starters that they can count on throughout the season. Hopefully that will be fixed somewhat via free agency, but the two southpaws already in the rotation need to step it up for the Indians to play meaningful games in late September.

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Cheerleader’s Boot Saves Kyle Denney

PD Story

Sometimes jokes write themselves. It looks like Denney is going to be all right (he’s been released from the hospital), so we can have some fun with this. Denney and all the other rookies were participating in annual hazing, and he got to wear a USC (no idea why they picked USC) cheerleader outfit during the trip to Minnesota. When the team was heading to the airport, a bullet entered the team bus, grazed Ryan Ludwick, and enetered Kyle Denney’s leg. The wound wasn’t deep, as team trainers removed the bullet before Denney reached the hospital. Denney was wearing a leather cheerleader’s boot as part of his outfit, and it apparently stopped the bullet somewhat. I’m wondering if Denney arrived at the ER still wearing the outfit, but regardless, I’m glad he’s OK. Even if he never sticks in the big leagues, Denney will have quite a story to tell to his grandkids.


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A Quick Note

Tonight’s game marked the first time Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, and Grady Sizemore all appeared in the same game. Hopefully this will be the first of many times that combination helps bring the Indians a victory.

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Season In Review: Part 1 of 5

I’ve divided this review into five parts: The bullpen, the starting pitching, the defense, the hitting and overall review. Assuming nothing really drastic happens, one week shouldn’t skew these numbers too much, and if something dramatic does happen, I can always go back and edit.

Let’s get the worst over with first.

The Bullpen

Name Innings App. ERA H/9 SO/9 BB/9 VORP
Rick White 78.1 59 5.29 10.1 5.1 3.3 3.0
David Riske 74.1 69 3.75 8.2 9.1 4.7 21.2
Rafael Betancourt 64.0 65 4.08 9.7 10.4 2.2 12.9
Matt Miller 52.0 54 3.29 7.3 8.5 3.8 14.5
Bob Howry 41.2 35 2.38 7.6 8.2 2.4 17.2
Jose Jimenez 36.1 31 8.42 11.1 5.2 3.5 -11.5
Bob Wickman 26.2 27 4.72 10.8 7.8 3.4 4.7
Cliff Bartosh 17.2 31 5.09 10.7 11.7 5.6 2.4
Jack Cressend 15.2 11 6.32 12.6 4.6 5.7 0.0
Jeriome Robertson 14.0 8 12.21 14.1 3.9 5.8 -12.2
Scott Stewart 13.2 23 7.24 15.1 11.9 4.0 -6.7
Jeremy Guthrie 11.2 6 4.63 6.9 5.4 4.6 2.2

Ah yes, the “bullpen from Hell” or shortened, “the hellpen.” The first two months of the season, the Indians had by far the worst bullpen in captivity. While the ineptness of the bullpen wasn’t even close to being the worst in baseball history, it felt like it. David Riske started the year as the closer, blew several saves, and thus began a series of bullpen shifts as manager Eric Wedge tried to find someone who get somebody, ANYBODY out. Jose Jimenez (free agency) and Scott Stewart (trade) were brought in last winter to shore up the bullpen, but turned out to be gascans. Baseball Prospectus ranked the bottom ten relievers by Adjusted Runs Prevented as of August 6th, and Jimenez and Jeriome Robertson were the bottom two.

Short FAQ: What is Adjusted Runs Prevented (ARP)?

A: The number of runs prevented over the average pitcher, adjusted for situation, league, and park. For a more in-depth explanation, go here.

The good news is that those that have remained on the team have pitched much better over the final half of the season. Replacing Jose Jimenez, Scott Stewart, and Jeriome Robertson have been Bob Wickman, Bob Howry, and Matt Miller. David Riske has been a lot better in the second half of the year, and Rafael Betancourt, the team’s most consistent reliver in April and May, hasn’t fallen off in August and September.

“That’s nice,” you might be saying, “but how should the team fix the bullpen next year?”

From what I’ve seen from front office/manager quotes in the past month or so, I don’t think you’ll see them spending a lot of money in the bullpen. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing, due to the maddening deviations in reliever effectiveness. For every Eric Gagne or Keith Foulke there’s ten other relievers who go from ‘great’ to ‘suck,’ depending on which year they’re playing. Scott Stewarrt was one of the better left-handed relievers in the National League when the Indians traded two prospects for him last winter; now he’s been banished to Los Angeles, and may resurface somewhere else two years from now as an elite reliever. Jose Jimenez, contrary to what you feel about him now, was a pretty effective closer in hyperoffensive Coors Field. Look at Ricardo Rincon’s career. Look at Paul Quantrill’s career. You really don’t know what you’re going to get from even the better relievers from year to year with a couple exceptions. So while of course you grab a couple guys from the “proven” pool every year, I don’t think it’s real smart to allocate big bucks to one of the least reliable positions on the roster.

For example, look at the composition of the bullpen in July and August, when it was more or less effective:

Closer – Bob Wickman – Acquired for Richie Sexson, among others in 2000. Blew out his arm a year after getting a three year extension in 2001 worth $18M. Finally came back after this year’s All-Star Break and has been very shaky, yet has only blown one save in 11 chances.

Setup – Bob Howry – picked up for a minor-league deal last winter while recovery from arm surgery. Came back after the All-Star Break and has been the best pitcher in the bullpen.

Setup – Rafael Betancourt – a former infielder converted to pitcher. The Indians picked him up two years ago as a minor-league free agent. Brought up in the second half of the 2003 season, and has parlayed a quirky short-arm delivery to become a very effective reliever, provided he isn’t overused.

Setup – Matt Miller – a 33-year-old who had pitched a grand total of 4.1 major-league innings before this season. The Indians signed the side-armer to a minor-league deal last winter. After pitching well in Buffalo, he was brought up and dominated right-handed hitters, holding them to a .214 average. He wasn’t drafted.

Setup – David Riske – drafted in the 56th round in 1996 (they only have 50 rounds now). He flew through the system, made his MLB debut in 1999, and bounced between the high minors and Cleveland for the next three years. Out of options in 2003, he was one of the better relief pitchers in the American League. This season he started as closer, blew several games, and looks to have stabilized as a 7th/8th inning guy. His ERAs by month are 12.27, 4.72, 1.00, 5.40, 1.76, and 2.08

Long Man – Rick White – When the bullpen was in the height of its throes, the Indians traded an organizational guy to the Dodgers for White’s services. He started out pitching in high-leverage situations, and was better than what the team had. Since then he’s been pushed to mop-up duty, and will probably be a NRI in someone else’s camp in 2005.

The moral of the story? With relievers, sometimes it all comes down to luck. Of course you have to find and recognize talent, but, especially in the bullpen, sometimes you just have to get lucky.

Of course, if money is no object, you can go ahead and spend $30-40M on “proven closers”; but the Indians can’t do that. Throwing 30% of your payroll at the least reliable of investments is a sure way of hamstringing your team down the road. The best way a small-market team can build a bullpen is to (a) develop your own talent, or, if that doesn’t work (b) pick up undervalued pitchers and see if they stick. To some extent, that’s what Mark Shapiro has figured out in the best three years as GM since trying the “proven closer” method. Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Davis, who have more or less struggled as starters, are going to be tried out in the bullpen, and Andrew Brown may eventually join them. Fernando Cabrera, after three years as a starter, is now a full-fledged relief prospect. Scott Sauerbeck was signed this summer to a 2005 contract in the hopes he becomes the next Bob Howry. Brian Tallet, after recovering from Tommy John Surgery, may find himself in the bullpen as a LOOGY. Cliff Bartosh and Kaz Tadano should figure into the mix as well.

I’m not insane enough to predict which among this collection of arms will be the core of the 2005 bullpen at this point in the offseason. A more realistic prediction is to identify a “pool” of possibles, and say that the majority of next year’s relief corps will come from it. And I’d still probably miss a guy or two; Betancourt and Miller were almost off the radar screen before their first appearances. Given that the New York Yankees had charcters like Tanyon Sturtze, Felix Heredia, Scott Proctor, Gabe White, and CJ Nitkowski logging multiple appearances this season, it’s safe to say that bullpen construction is definitely not a science; in fact, it almost resides in the pseudoscience realm along with remote viewing and witchcraft.